Transcript Environmental Kuznets Curve

Environmental Kuznets Curve
Public Opinion & Input Politics
Johan Rock & Henrik Werenskiold
EKC Theory
• The relationship between environmental degradation and economical
growth (GDP per capita) can be represented as an inverted U-shaped
curve:
Stern’s Regression Model (2003)
lnE/Pit = i + yi + 1 lnGDP/Pit + 2 lnGDP/P2it + it
P = population
i = country
t = time
•
There may be an inverted U-shaped relation between urban ambient concentrations of some
pollutants and income though this should be tested with more rigorous time series or panel
data methods. (2003)
•
Will this inverted U-shaped relation be stronger in democracies than authoritarian regimes?
Our Regression Model
lnE/Pit = i + yi + (dg + 1 lnGDP/Pit + (dg2 + 2 lnGDP/P2it  + control variable +
it
P = population
i = country
t = time
d = democracy/ non-democracy dummy variable
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A dummy variable for democracy has been added to the regression model in order to
investigate whether there is a distinction between democracies and non-democracies
Is it possible to use a democracy index instead of dummy variable?
Is it feasible to use oil production as a control variable?
Mechanisms of the EKC
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Transition from industrial to a service orientated economy.
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Export of polluting industrial processes abroad.
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Technological advances, generating less pollution
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Higher awareness about the detrimental effects of pollution among voters.
– Can the analysis confirm this?
• MV preferences
Data
• Same data as used in the Stern investigation focusing on sulphur dioxide
(SO2) concentrations in urban areas.
i = 40 countries
t = 40 years
•
Collecting data from World Value Survey (WVS)
Critique
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Non-democracy – data on emissions is more likely to be difficult to find and one
would have to question its validity.
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Non-democracies generally tend to be less affluent than democracies. Therefore
we question whether authoritarian countries are rich enough to be included in the
study.
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The robustness of the EKC curve itself has been questioned by researchers.