Transcript Слайд 1 - Tallinn University

INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS (IMEMO)
RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
ALEXANDER DYNKIN
Картина мира, сущностно
понятая, означает не
картину, изображающую
мир, а мир, понятый в
смысле такой картины.
М.Хайдеггер
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CONTENTS and METHODOLOGY
• IDEOLOGY
• ECONOMY
• SOCIAL TRENDS
• INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM
• COUNTRIES AND REGIONS
• CONCLUSIONS FOR RUSSIA. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
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Мы избегаем популистских сценариев
Без сценариев судного дня и
апокалипсиса
Без пасторали
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Working hypothesis of the Outlook
• Evolutionary trend as the basic trend
of the world development.
• System failures and crises in certain
countries and regions will not have a
great influence on the evolutionary
logic, but possibly strengthen it.
• Enhancing the quality of new trends of
globalization in all spheres: politics,
ideology, economy, security, social
development.
• Polycentricism and speeding up
hierarchical world order changes of
the post-bipolar world.
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World economy – average projected
GDP growth rates by region, %
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Developed and developing countries?
No principal changes
90.0
84.5
85.3
86.0
Dramatic changes
86.4
120000
80.0
100000
70.0
60.0
80000
50.0
60000
40.0
30.0
20.0
40000
15.5
14.7
14.0
13.6
20000
10.0
0.0
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Развитые страны
World population structure, %
2000
2010
2020
2030
Развивающиеся страны
GDP, $ bln in PPP and prices of 2009
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Global economy
• The pace of world economic growth will be higher than in 1990-2010. It
will lead to a certain doubling of global GDP.
• The world economy will grew annually by an amount approximately
equal to the GDP of modern Germany each year.
• Economic growth will be provided with improved productivity and
efficiency of investment, the serious resource constraints will not
occur.
• Knowledge and Innovation – the main sources of efficiency gains.
• Possible issues – the global regulation mismatch of the second phase
of globalization, especially in the financial sector, strengthening the
structural imbalances of the world economy.
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Расчеты по ППС и по официальным курсам (дуализм
сопоставлений) меняют соотношение Китай-США-ЕС,
положение России по сравнению с ними меняется мало
50000
30000
45000
25000
40000
35000
20000
30000
25000
15000
20000
10000
15000
10000
5000
5000
0
0
2000
2010
2020
США
2030
ЕС 27
ВВП, млрд долл., в ценах и по
ППС 2009 года
2000
Китай
2010
2020
2030
Россия
ВВП, млрд долл., по
среднегодовым курсам 2009 года
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Развитые страны сохранят или усилят отрыв по
уровню и эффективности развития
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
Мир в целом
2000
2010
Развитые страны
2020
2030
Развивающиеся страны
Производительность труда, тыс. долл. на одного занятого
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Global leaders will force R&D and innovation
programs; China and India are
growing very rapidly
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
США
Япония
ЕС
2000
2010
Россия
2020
Индия
Китай
2030
Shares in global R&D expenditures, %
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Leaders of R&D and innovation in the
next twenty years
• The United States will maintain the role of world leader in the
broadest range of R&D and innovation
• The European Union will generally maintain its position in certain
R&D areas
• China will greatly accelerate its technological progress, but will still
lag behind the US and the EU in national system of innovation
• Japan, as before, will be engaged in research activities in a limited
range of fields of knowledge, and more productive in engineering
and promotion of innovative products and services
• Many medium and small highly developed countries will open new
opportunities for themselves in a number of narrow niches, due to
rapid progress in the incremental innovations
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Science. National and International Co-authorsip
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International Co-authorship. Strengthening
global knowledge net
1998
2009
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Energy Resources Supply
By 2030, the world will not suffer from the shortage of energy
resources.
• The major issue will be the cost of the resources
• The need to improve energy effectiveness and decarbonisation
policy will encourage a search for technological breakthroughs
• Results of a breakthrough in many fields of alternative-noncarbon
energy will be felt generally by the most developed countries, but
this will not happen until 2030.
• However, technological change will allow to make more effective
utilization of non-traditional hydrocarbons carriers, in particular,
shale gas, coal bed methane etc.
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Social development
Key social changes
1991-2010
2011-2030
Growth in the global middle class and its Growing stratification of the global middle class
expansion outside the community of developed along with the increase of its population in
countries
absolute terms
The poor make up to 30% of the world population A decline in the weight of the poor to 20% and
(15% – those on the verge of survival)
10%, respectively
Gradual development of a new class of Rapid increase in the number of millionaires, first
millionaires, growing on a mass scale mainly in of all in China, India, Brazil and Russia
the USA, the EU and Japan
Most of the super-rich in the world are citizens of Accelerated increase in the number of the superthe United States
rich due to billionaires in China and other rapidly
growing economies
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Guidelines for social policy
• The middle class will increase on the global scale and will set the
pace and quality of growth in social standards
• Development of the economy of innovations is creating social
“dividing strips” in developed countries. Jobs in many professions
become needless, or get filled by low-skilled and low-paid
immigrants
• Social stratification is expanding in the world not only along the line
of “rich countries – poor countries”. The rich in poor countries must,
as well as the rich countries themselves, take responsibility for the
destiny of “the world poor”.
• The problem of “corporate citizenship” will obtain new forms:
benefits enjoyed by those employed by transnational corporations
do not apply to all others.
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International security system
• The main trend - drift towards “soft” and
“smart” powers in foreign policy with
following instruments:
• Financial and economic superiority
• Science and technological advancements
• Cultural and educational
• Promotion of ideological influence
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Hierarchical International System of
Polycentric World: Interstate Level
The USA: global military, innovative, financial and
economic leader with significant “soft power”
The EU: institutionalized
common political and economic
entity with characteristics of
a “collective actor”
China: growing global
actor with the potential
for leadership role
Russia: natural resources, nuclear power, some R&D
potential, link between Europe and Pacific Asia
Groups of miscellaneous regional leaders with global influence: current – India, Brazil,
Germany, Japan; potential – South Africa, Turkey and South Korea
Groups of countries differing in their resource availability and power potential with limited
capabilities to influence on regional and global political and economic processes
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Conclusions for Russia
risks and opportunities
• During next twenty years, Russia
should efficiently adapt its domestic and
foreign strategy to main trends in global
development in order to avoid
finding itself in a marginal position, to
cope with future risks and to exploit
new opportunities coming from
globalization
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Conclusions for Russia: risks and
opportunities. Ideology
Risks
Opportunities
Spreading of radical nationalist
ideas, concepts of exceptionality,
confrontational self-identification in
Russia
A renaissance of the most radical
ideas of “equality” and “fairness”
Self-identification of Russia as a
Euro-Pacific nation, a part of global
civilization based on European values
A clerical swing of social
conscience in the society. Interconfessional conflicts
Cooperation with the United States,
the EU, China and India in resistance to
aggressive Islamism
An extensive multilateral dialog on
ideology and values with global leaders
and other interested nations
Messsage: It is necessary to reform political, social, legal and
educational institutions according with principles of
globalization and non-destabilizing inequality
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Conclusions for Russia: risks and
opportunities. World Economy
RISKS
Conservation of the resource-based
economy, Dutch decease
OPPORTUNITIES
Modernization and reindustrialization
based on technological integration with the
world centers of innovations
Financial and economic losses and
A twin-vector economic strategy
marginalization because of limited
aimed at integrative cooperation of Russia
participation in the processes of integration with both the EU and Pacific Asia
in Europe and Pacific Asia
Lagging behind in participation in
Participation in regional (the EU,
multilateral economic forums and global
Pacific Asia) and global financial rescue
governance system
funds
PetroState. Crude oil prices decline.
Emerging role of the Russian ruble as
High inflation. Living standarts
a regional currency in trade and financial
deteriration.
transactions on the basis of changes in the
structure of economy and exports and
effective national financial system
Challenges.The strategy of innovation is directly affecting current interests of the Russian
oligarchy. To determine the balance between their interests and long-term interests of the
economy in whole is a political task. Second, an idea of a twin-vector economic strategy
(can arouse fears that the country may disintegrate and can inspire opposition.
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Conclusions for Russia: risks and
opportunities. Social trends
Risks
Opportunities
An irreversible lag in the development of a middle
class.
Sliding down in population size, quality of life
and the spread of poverty to the level of
developing economies
Brain drain
Negative consequences of the conflict between the
interests of the global super-rich and the interests
of national governments and societies
Abstaining from the creation of a new global
social system.
Lagging behind the global
education, public health, and welfare
trends
To speed up middle class formation and to raise
the quality of life, relying on:
i™
mplementation of innovation and reindustrialisation strategy;
expansion of activity of small and medium-size
™
businesses;
renunciation of bureaucratic dominance – de™
bureaucratization
To improve education, medical and social
services, using international experience and
coordinating social policy with Russia’s neighbors
in in Europe and Pacific Asia
To move to a fully-fledged civil society
Challenge: to reform the existing institutions and avoid a conflict between the
civil society and bureaucracy. The latter will suffer personal losses
from the narrowing of
its functions. Society, must have effective
bureaucracy
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Conclusions for Russia:
risks and opportunities. Foreign policy
Risks
Rising tensions with the USA in nuclearmissile balancing, in missile defence, in global
and regional security issues
Worsening of relations:
™
with the EU caused by regional problems, energy
security, enlargement of NATO, and emerging of a
new European security system without Russia;
™
with China – caused by tensions in Central Asia
and border problems;
™
with Japan – caused by the territorial issue
Opportunities
To unite efforts with global leaders and
ensure global and regional security in multicivilizational, polycentric and competitive global
order
To successively create a new architecture of
security and cooperation in Europe
To change strategic nature of Russian-American
relations from mutual nuclear deterrence towards
mutual nuclear security and cooperation in the
BMD
Confrontation around the development of the
To foster ecologically balanced multilateral
Oceans, the Arctic, the Antarctic and Outer Space cooperation in development of the Oceans, the
Arctic, the Antarctic and Outer Space
Challenge:To overcome or to limit Russia’s traditional perceptions of the United States
and China as potential antagonists while formulating conceptual basis of
foreign policy and strategy
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