Transcript שקופית 1

The Israeli Economy
October 4th 2011
The Israeli Economy – 2010
Facts & Figures
•
•
•
•
•
•
GDP ($Billion)
Population (7/2011, Million)
GDP per capita ($)
Foreign Trade (% of GDP)
Total Exports (% of GDP)
Unemployment (7/2011)
218
7.8
28,575
72%
37%
5.4%
The Israeli Industry
• Share of business sector
21%
• Industrial Sales ($Billion)
95
• Industrial Exports (% of sales)
43%
• Employees
350K
• Main branches: Chemicals, Electronics & Food
2
The Manufacturers' Association of
Israeli Economy
Strengths
3
The Manufacturers' Association of
The Resilience of Israeli Economy during
2008/9 Global Crisis
Positive Growth in Israel Vs. Regression in Most Developed Countries
Developed and selected major emerging market countries,
Real GDP growth, 2009
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0.8%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
4
Finland
Russia
Ireland
Mexico
Japan
Sweden
Italy
UK
Germany
Turkey
Denmark
Netherlands
Austria
Spain
Belgium
Portugal
USA
Canada
France
Greece
Switzerland
South Africa
New Zealand
Norway
Brazil
Saudi
Israel
Australia
Poland
India
China
-8%
Source: IMF October 2010
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
A Short Recession in the Israeli
Economy DuringGDP
2008/9 Global Crisis
Real Changes in GDP, Each quarter against Previous, at Annual Rate, S.A. Data
8.7%
7.9%
5.6%
5.0%5.1%
4.2%
3.6%
7.3%
7.5%
6.1%
4.6%4.8%
5.3%
4.7%
3.5%
3.5%3.5%
2.7%
1.8%
2.4%
1.0%
0.7%
-2.1%
-2.6%
-3.2%
-4.4%
GDP
Business GDP
Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11
5
The Manufacturers' Association of
Relatively Moderate Regression in
Israeli Industry during 2008/9 Crisis
Real Industrial Output Change, 2009 compared to 2008
4%
-1%
-4% -4%
-5%
-6%
-9%
-10%-10%
-11% -11%
-12% -12%
-15%
-16%
-17% -18%
-18%
-21%
Source: OECD, CBS & MAI Economic Research Department
6
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Export
Oriented
Export
Oriented
GrowthGrowth
in Industry
Real Cumulative Rate of Change, Since 1998
Export = 43%
of Sales
134%
Industrial Exports
141%
120%
Industrial Production
102%
80%
Export = 31%
of Sales
54%
41%
0%
7%
1%
102%
62%
42%
34%
12%
27%
4%
31%
4%
26%
11%
15%
44%
32%
46%
33%
6%
Jan.Aug.
'11
7
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Strong starting point
Rapid Growth in Israeli Economy
Real Annual Changes
5.6%
5.5%
5.1%
4.9%
6.9% 6.8%
5.8%
4.8% 5.0%
4.0%
6.1%
5.8%5.6%
4.5%
3.7%3.6%
3.2%
3.0%
2.9%3.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.3%
-0.9%
GDP
GDP per Capita
Business Sector GDP
2011 Est.
8
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
A Continuous Decrease in
Unemployment
Rate
Unemployment Rate
As Percent of Civilian Labor Force
10.3%
10.7%
10.4%
9.0%
8.4%
7.5%
7.3%
6.1%
6.6%
5.6%
2011
Frcst.
9
* M.A.I Economic Research Department early estimates.
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Independent of Outside Funding
A Continuing
Current
Account
Surplus
A Surplus
in The Balance
of Payments
Current
Account
As Percentage of GDP
The combination of a continual surplus in the
current account and the large amount of foreign
3.2%
currency reserves, enable Israel to provide its
2.6%
import needs without dependence on external 1.8%
financing.
0.6%
0.3%
-0.9%
-1.8%
-2.2%
-5.0%
Source: CBS & MAI Economic Research Department
10
The Manufacturers' Association of
5.1%
2.7%
3.6%
0.9%
2.9%
High Private Saving Rate in Israel
Household
saving
rates- -Percentage
Percentage of disposable
household household
income, 2009 income, 2009
Household
saving
rates
of disposable
Israel
Belgium
Sweden
Germany
Switzerland
Austria
Ireland
Norway
Italy
Netherlands
United States
Australia
Canada
Czech Rep.
Finland
Korea
Hungary
Poland
Japan
Slovak Rep.
Denmark
16.8%
13.4%
12.9%
11.1%
5.9%
2.2%
0%
11OECD & CBS
Source:
2%
Source: OECD & CBS
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
14%
16%
18%
12
Belgium
Iceland
Singapore
Luxembourg
Switzerland
Japan
Germany
Denmark
Canada
Austria
UK
Czech Rep.
USA
Finland
Ireland
Korea
Netherlands
Israel
Norway
Cyprus
Sweden
Slovak Rep.
Italy
France
Greece
Spain
Slovenia
Australia
Portugal
25.0
Bank Regulatory Capital to RiskWeighted
2010
22.1
20.0
15.3
15.0
Source: IMF
14.3
10.8
10.0
5.0
0.0
The Manufacturers' Association of
Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total
Loans -Low
in -Low
Israel
Bank Nonperforming
Loans toRatio
Total Loans
Ratio in Israel
Percents, 2009
61.2
60
50
40
30
20
10
5.4
3.3
1.7 1.5
0
13
Source: IMF
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
0.4
Real Estate Prices Before 2008/9 Crisis:
Relatively Moderate Increase
Nominal Change in Average Apartment Price, 1997-2007
14
Source: Psagot Investment House
The Manufacturers' Association of
House Prices
Cumulative change ratess, 2010 average compared to 2007 average
43.8%
21.1%
3.6%
-4.1% -2.5%
-2.0%
6.7%
12.9%13.1%
10.3%
10.1%
9.0% 9.1%
-0.1%
-10.7%-10.4%
-13.9%
-33.7%
15
Source: OECD, CBS
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
High Share of ICT in the Business
Sector
ICT Sector
GDP,
Out of&The
Business Technologies,
Sector GDP2006
2006
ICT=
Information
Communications
15.9
14.8
13.7
2010 15.7%
12.1
16
Source: Israeli CBS
10.9 10.8 10.7
9.2
8.7 8.4 8.3
7.9 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.6 7.5
7.5 7.1
7.1 6.9 6.8 6.7
5.0
The Manufacturers' Association of
The
High
Tech
Sector
Contribution
to
The
High
Tech
Sector
Contribution
to Industrial
Industrial
Growth
Growth
in 2004-20
As Percentage of Total Growth
2004 – Q2/2011
71%
To Industrial Output
17
75%
65%
To Employment in
Industry
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
To Industrial Export
)Including 8/2011)
Global R&D and Innovation Center
18
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
World Leadership in Civilian R&D
Investments
Israel is The World Leader in Civilian R&D Investment
As Percentage of GDP, 20 9
2010 4.4%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0% 3.0%
2.1%
2.0%2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
19
Source: Israeli CBS
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Diversion
of Trade
toaccording
Asian
Countries
Distribution
of export
to areas
34%
32%
28%
26%
23%
24%
18%
15%
Other
Asia
US
Jan. - Aug. 2011
20
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
EU
Employment Flexibility
Real Decrease in Wages at the Israeli Business Sector
Sector
in Business
Wage
Real
During
2008/9
Global Crisis
Real Changes, Compared to the Parallel Period in a Previous Year
Extraordinary measures during 2008/9
crisis including:
3.8%
1. Reducing Overtime
2. Concentrated Vacation
3. Non Payment Vacation
1.1%
4. Shortened Workweek
0.3%
-0.3%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-2.4%
-1.6%
-2.1%-1.8%
-2.1%
-4.2%
21
The Manufacturers' Association of
1.2% 1.4%
0.6%
0.4%
-0.5%
Relatively moderate Dismissals
During 2008/9 Global Crisis
Workers
BusinessSector
Sector
Workers in
in the
the Business
Change rates, each quarter against previous quarter, S.A. data
2.0%
1.7%
1.7%
18,000
employees were
fired
0.4%
0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
1.3%
1.2%
0.4%
+128,000 employees
-0.6%
-0.7%
Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11
‫אף‬
22
Responsible Fiscal Policy
Restrained Government Budgetary Deficit
As percent of GDP
6%
Target Deficit
Actual Deficit
5.5%
5.2%
3.7%
3%
2%
23
Source: Ministry of Finance
The Manufacturers' Association of
Relatively
Government
DeficitLow
in Israel
Israel’sLow
Government
Deficit is Relatively
As Percent of GDP, 2010
32.4%
10.6% 10.5% 10.4%
9.5% 9.2% 9.1%
7.0%
5.4%
4.6% 4.1% 3.7% 3.3%
2.7% 2.5%
0.0%
Source: Eurostat, IMF, MOF
24
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Continuous Reduction
Public Debt as Percentage of GDP
of Public
Debt Ratio
Continuous Reduction
of Public Debt Ratio
99
97.4
93.8
84.5
78.3
Source: Ministry of Finance
25
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
77.2
79.6
76.6
Relatively Low Public Debt Ratio
220.3%
As percent of GDP, 2010
142.8%
119.0%
96.8% 96.2% 93.0% 91.6%
83.2% 81.7%
80.0% 76.6% 72.3%
Source: Ministry of Finance, Eurostat, IMF
26
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
62.7% 60.1%
55.0%
48.4% 43.6%
39.8%
Corporate Tax
Tax - 2011
Corporate2011
France
33%
Italy
31%
Spain
30%
U.K.
28%
Sweeden
26%
Finland
26%
Denmark
25%
Austria
25%
Israel
24%
Greece
23%
EU average
22%
Switzerland
21%
Russia
20%
Hungary
19%
Singapore
17%
Rumania
16%
Ireland
12.5%
Bulgaria
10%
Cyprus
10%
27
Source: KPMG, www.worldwide-tax.com
INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES WITH EXPORT CAPABILITY
2011-12: 10% - 15%
2013-14:
7% - 12.5%
2015:
6% - 12%
Israeli Economy
Weaknesses
28
The Manufacturers' Association of
Denmark
Sweden
Luxembourg
Austria
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Finland
Belgium
Netherlands
Norway
Switzerland
Iceland
France
Hungary
Germany
Australia
OECD
Korea
Canada
Spain
Greece
Japan
Ireland
New Zealand
UK
Italy
Poland
Israel
USA
Portugal
Turkey
Mexico
Israel
Gini
theOECD
OECD
GiniIndex
index in
in the
0.474
0.379
0.312
0.232
29
Source: OECD
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Relatively Low
Employment
Rate
Employment
Rate
As percentage of working age popualtion, 2010
64.6%
60.2%
46.3%
30
Source: OECD
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
78.9%
Standard of Living
Gross domestic
product
per capita
Relatively
Low
GDP
Per Capita
Index (OECD=100), Based on PPP, 2010
164
138
100
84
44
31
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
The Background to the Protests:
High Cost of Living
30%
25%
20%
Cumulative change rates compared to 2006 average
25.1%
Food Price
Housing Price
Nominal Wage
23.4%
15.3%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Jan. - Jun.
11'
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
The Food Prices
Cumulative change rates compared to 2006 average
90%
80%
70%
84%
UN Food Price Index
Food Price
CPI
60%
58%
50%
46%
40%
30%
25%
20%
16%
10%
0%
4%
0%
5%
24%
17%
9%
25%
20%
12%
15%
1%
Jan. - Aug.
11'
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Cost of Living
Number of Salaries Required to Buy…
To Buy a Car*
To Buy an Apartment
114
14.2
90
79
11.6
71
60
56
9
54
30
5.9
5.4
5.4
5.3
4.1
3.8
* Mazda 3
34 Source: BDO, Ziv Hatf, According to an average salary.
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
USA
Japan
Switzerland
OECD
Spain
Slovak Rep.
Canada
Germany
Czech Rep.
Norway
Australia
Turkey
Ireland
Greece
Mexico
Korea
Netherlands
Belgium
New Zealand
Luxembourg
Finland
Italy
UK
Poland
Austria
Portugal
Iceland
Israel
Hungary
France
Denmark
Sweden
Indirect Tax Burden
Percentage of GDP, 2008
35
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
17.8
16.2
10.2
6.9
Threats
Opportunities
2012
2012 Threats
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Expected slowdown in global trade expansion rate
High Level of commodity prices is expected
Weak Starting point in Industrial Exports
Wage pressures
A slow down in Domestic demands
Trachtenberg Committee Recommendations
Increase in government –controlled costs
Geopolitical instability
Off-shoring
37
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
An Expected Slowdown in World
VolumeTrade
of World Trade
Annual change, trade in goods
13.6%
13.3%
10.8%
6.3%
3.7%
7.5%
8.6%
7.7%
7.1%
5.8%
2.7%
-0.3%
“Decrease of 2% in world trade = Decrease of 2% in Israeli export =
Decreases of 0.4% in GDP”.
Bank of Israel, September 2011
-11.7%
Source: The Economist, 15/8/11
38
2011
Frcst
2012
Frcst
Stability on high level in raw
Global
raw metrials prices
- Forcast
materials
prices
US $ index, Cumulative rate of chnage, Since Q /0
263%
250%
Base metals
Industrial raw metrials
200%
Crude oil
Rubber
150%
100%
50%
162%
158% 161%
135%
130%
117%
133%128%
122%
123%
107%
70%
0%
Industrial raw metrials (IRM) is a price index of 9 hard commodities.
Source: Economist, Sep. 2011
Industrial Export (excl. diamonds)
Real change rates, S.A, each period against previous period
9.6%
9.4%
7.6%
7.6%
2.3%
2.0%
-0.2%-0.5%
-1.8%
-2.1%
-3.8%
-2.6%
-5%
-6.5%
-8.4%
*Estimated export prices.
‫אף‬
40
- %
Most of the increase in the Industrial
Export derives from the High Tech sector
Cumulative decrease of 5% in the Industrial Export
Real changes rates, July - August 2011 compared to Q1/10, S.A
High Tech
Mixed High Tech
Mixed Low Tech
Low Tech
25%
19%
13%
4% 2%
8%
7%
3%
-1%
-1%
-15%
-14%
-21%
-28%
41
Industrial Production
Real change rates in industrial production, S.A, each period against previous period
5.7%
3.9%
3.4%
2.9%
2.9%
1.4%
0.6%
0.4%
-9%
-1.1% -0.9%
-1.2%
-2.3%
-2.6
-4.8%
42
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
-4.6%
Employees in the Industry
Change rates, S.A, each period against previous period
1.4%
0.8% 0.9%
1.1%
(22K people) -6%
0.0%
1,500 new
employees
0.5%
0.0%
0.3% 0.4%
-0.3%
-0.3%
(14.3K people)
-1.0%
-1.8%
-2.6%
The43total number of employees in industry is still lower by 2% compared to Q1/08
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Employees in the Industry by
Branches
Change in the number of employees, April - July 2011 to Q3/09
Metal Products
Electronic Components
Control & Medical Equip.
Food & Beverage
Chemicals
Plastic & Rubber
Machinery
Basic Metal
Electric
Wood & Furniture
Electronic Communication
Publishing & Printing
Jewellery
Shoes and Leather
Mining & Quarrying
Paper
Non-Metallic Minerals
Transport Equip.
-790
Textiles & Wearing -1,239
44
2,970
2,829
2,186
1,668
1,559
1,213
1,005
667
457
362
351
164
131
126
119
38
-48
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Real Wage in Industry
Change rates, Compared to the Parallel Period in a Previous Year
*Average wage per employee job
2.7%
0.8%
2.5%
1.2%
-0.6% -0.7%
-2.1%
-2.6% -2.7%
-2.5%
-2.1% -2.0% -2.1%
Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11
45
Continuous Difficulty in Recruiting
Professional Employees to Industry
Difficulty in Recruiting Professional Employees for the Industry
(Percent of Industrialists Reporting of Difficulties, Survey of Expectations in Industry)
77%
81%
83%
67% 11% 20%
11%
73%
75% 73%
75% 74%
69%
11% 18%
17%
66%
31%
40%
29%
33% 27%
34%
23%
26% 25%
42%
31% 18%
52%
36%
27%
23%
27% 24%
82% 82%
25% 24% 26% 27%
61%
52%
79%
33%
30% 26%
35%
23%
16%
34%
23% 26%
29% 30%
11%
25%
17%
16%
9%
29%
23% 23% 20% 27%
21%
16% 18%
8%
Q2/07Q3/07Q4/07Q1/08Q2/08Q3/08Q4/08Q1/09Q2/09Q3/09Q4/09Q1/10Q2/10Q3/10Q4/10Q1/11Q2/11
Little Difficulty
46
Medium Difficulty
Hard Difficulty
An additional wage updates are
expected
due to the Minimum Wage Update
• January 2011
• April 2011
• July 2011
• October 2012
3,850 NIS
3,890 NIS
4,100 NIS
4,300 NIS
47
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Minimum
Wage
Minimum Wage
Ratio of minimum to mean wage, 2008
50%
50%
48%
45%
44%
43%
41%
37%
37%
37%
36%
OECD 48
Source: OECD
‫א‬
36%
Revenue
Industries
Revenueof
of All
All Industries
Real change rates, S.A., each period against previous period
3.1%
3.5%
2.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.8% 1.0%
0.2% 0.2%
0.3%
0.7%
-1.3%-1.2%
-2.3%
-3.6%
Revenue of all industries
Trend line
49
0.2%
Financial Assets Held by The
Public Financial Assets Held by The Public
Cumulative Rate of Change since Jan. 2008
31%
27%
21%
17%
14%
7%
6%
2%
5%
0%
-6%
50
‫א ף‬
19%
28%
A Slowdown in Industrial Growth
estimates
forfor
2011
MAIM.A.I
Industry
Forecast
Real Annual Changes
16%
7.7%
5%
1.6%
3%
1%
-4.8%
-6.0%
-8.3%
Industrial Production
Industrial Export
2011 Forecast
51
Employees
Shifting Production Lines Abroad
No Answer, 7%
Off shoring, 29%
Not Planning to
Offshore, 40%
Within 2 years
53% of
industrial
companies
Planning to Offshore
will have
as a partial
productive
substitute to
activity
manufacturing in
abroad
Israel, 13%
Planning to Offshore
as a full substitute to
Planning to Offshore manufacturing in
Israel, 2%
in order to expand
activities, 8%
Source: Off shoring Survey, Manufacturers’ Association of Israel. July 2011.
53
2012 Opportunities
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Continuous growth in emerging markets
Global
Continuous increase in domestic demand
Attractive taxation path (?)
Fiscal discipline + bi annual budget
Employers – employees co-operation
No Inflationary pressures
A Renewed Depreciation of the NIS
Credit rating upgrade by S&P
‫א ף‬
Local
Global Growth Forecast
Growth Forecast
10.3%
9.5%
Annual GDP growth
10.1%
9.0%
7.8% 7.5%
4.0%
2.3%
3.0%
1.8%1.6%
1.1%
1.5%
Euro Area
USA
-0.5%
China
India
Japan
2011 est.
Source: IMF, Sep. 2011
55
2012 frcst.
1.8%
A continuous rise in the activity
of the Hi.Tech sector in the US
The development in the Tech Plus index, each period against previous period
4% 4%
4%
4%
2%
4%
3% 3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-4%
-9%
-10%
1% 1%
Factors supporting the
continuation of increasing demand
•
•
•
Raising wages
Decline in unemployment rate
Relatively Low Real interest rate
Inflation in Israel
Change in Consumer Price Index, Aug. 2011 compard to Aug. 2010
5.2%
3.4%
2.8%
Housing
58
CPI, Excl. housing
CPI
Expected Rate of Inflation
Average inflation forecasts 12 months forward
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.7%
2.3%
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Source: Bank of Israel, mean of the inflation forecasts of the commercial banks and economic
consultancy companies
Since June A Sharp Depreciation
Compared to Main Competitors
Main Importers to USA
7/6/11 - 27/9/11 ($ = 3.712 NIS)
9%
5%
6%
Canada
UK
6%
10%
17%
10%
11%
Israel
India
7%
-1%
-5%
Japan
China
Malaysia Taiwan
Euro
Area
Korea
Mexico
Exchange
rates Forecasts
Change rates, December of each year compared to the December of the previous year
NIS to USD
NIS to Euro
5.8%
3.81
6.3%
6.1%
5.54
5.06
2.1%
5.05
3.89
3.79
-2.1%
-0.1%
3.60
-4.9%
4.77
-13.9%
2011 est.
2012
frcst.
Source: Jonathan Katz
2011 est.
2012
frcst.
S&P Credit Rating Upgrade
September 2011 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
(S&P) raised its long-term foreign currency sovereign
credit ratings on the State of Israel to A+ from A.
S&P mentioned that their ratings on Israel are
supported by their view of its "prosperous and resilient
economy, strong institutions, ongoing fiscal
consolidation, and robust external performance."
62
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Macroeconomic
Forecast for 2012
Israeli Economy
2012 Forecast
The Israeli Economy
Real Annual Changes
Real Annual Changes in GDP
5.0%
4.8%
4.0%
Bank of
Israel
forecast 4.7%
3.2%
0.8%
2011 Est.
** Bank of Israel Forecast, 22/9/2011
64
The Manufacturers' Association of Israel
2012 Frcst.**
Thank you
Daphna Aviram-Nitzan
Head of Economic Research Department
Manufacturers' Association of Israel
[email protected]
Tel. 972-3-5198806
Mobile: 972-50-7478111