Transcript Slide 1

Migration and Development: Recent
Evidence and Some Lessons for Africa
International Conference Sustainable Growth and
Development in Africa
Dakar, November 25, 2013
Christian Ebeke
International Monetary Fund
Washington, D.C., USA
International migration:
What’s behind the ramp-up?
Upward trend in migration across destinations …
Stock of migrants
(by destination regions)
250,000,000
200,000,000
Less developed regions
More developed regions
90 992 020
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
95 938 779
71 127 043
71 855 339
82 306 645
103 388 690
129 737 280
135 583 436
2010
2013
0
1990
Sources: United Nations.
2000
… with an important share within Sub-Saharan Africa.
World's distribution of African migrants
(in percent of total Africa's emigration)
120
Oceania
North America
LAC
Asia
Europe
Africa
100
13.0
80
21.2
60
13.3
24.2
15.4
15.2
29.1
28.8
47.0
47.8
2010
2013
40
62.2
56.3
1990
2000
20
0
Sources: United Nations; author's estimates.
Host countries’ immigration policies have tightened for
migrants from the developing world …
2.5
2
How tight are immigration policies?
(tightening faced by migrant-sending regions)
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.5
1.5
1
0.5
0
Middle East & Europe & Sub-Saharan
North Africa Central Asia
Africa
South Asia Latin America East Asia &
& Caribbean
Pacific
Sources: World Populations Policies; World Bank Bilateral Migration Database; and author's calculations.
Female emigration is relatively large
Gender distribution of African migrants
(in percent of total)
120
100
Female outside Africa
Male outside Africa
15.6
18.5
22.9
22.6
29.4
26.9
21.9
22.1
22.1
25.2
30.1
29.6
32.8
29.4
25.1
25.7
1990
2000
2010
Sources: United Nations; and author's estimates.
2013
80
60
40
20
Female in Africa
Male in Africa
0
However, there is a large heterogeneity in emigration
intensities in Sub-Saharan Africa.
African migrants living abroad in 2013
(as a percentage of total population of the country of origin)
35
CPV
40
30
20
15
10
5
0
STP
SOM
GNQ
LSO
COM
MUS
SYC
BFA
MAR
LBR
SWZ
SSD
TGO
TUN
NAM
LBY
MLI
ERI
SLE
GNB
CIV
ZWE
BEN
DZA
EGY
COG
SEN
GMB
MRT
GIN
MOZ
SDN
CAF
GHA
BWA
TCD
RWA
BDI
AGO
GAB
ZAR
MWI
UGA
DJI
ZMB
CMR
NER
ZAF
KEN
MDG
ETH
NGA
TZA
25
Sources: United Nations; and author's estimates.
Is Sub-Saharan Africa loosing its “Brain”?
(in percent)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Venezuela, RB
Solomon Islands
South Africa
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Fiji
St. Kitts and Nevis
Vanuatu
Jamaica
Argentina
Mongolia
Marshall Islands
Kiribati
Guyana
Haiti
Costa Rica
Micronesia, Fed. Sts.
Gabon
Cuba
Vietnam
Madagascar
Peru
Lebanon
Nigeria
Malaysia
Kenya
Ethiopia
Brazil
Dominica
Timor-Leste
Colombia
Grenada
Thailand
Seychelles
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Namibia
St. Lucia
China
Mauritius
Congo, Rep.
Zimbabwe
Ecuador
Maldives
Tonga
Syrian Arab Republic
Dominican Republic
Cambodia
Nicaragua
Sri Lanka
Cameroon
Libya
Egypt, Arab Rep.
India
Djibouti
Iraq
Lao PDR
Tanzania
Samoa
Zambia
Honduras
Bolivia
Gambia, The
Myanmar
El Salvador
Guatemala
Yemen, Rep.
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Sudan
Sierra Leone
Suriname
Indonesia
West Bank and Gaza
Central African Republic
Jordan
Ghana
Pakistan
Uganda
Somalia
Mexico
Algeria
Côte d'Ivoire
Morocco
Tunisia
Angola
Botswana
Liberia
Afghanistan
Swaziland
Bhutan
Cape Verde
Comoros
Eritrea
Senegal
Guinea-Bissau
Chad
São Tomé and Principe
Malawi
Paraguay
Mauritania
Rwanda
Bangladesh
Burundi
Togo
Nepal
Benin
Lesotho
Mozambique
Guinea
Niger
Mali
Burkina Faso
Skilled emigration from Africa is not necessarily large
compared to other regions …
Share of skilled migrants in total emigration in the 2000s
Sources: E. Artuc, F. Docquier, C. Ozden, Ch. Parsons (2013)
… although in critical sectors such as health, the direct
leakage seems important.
Sub-Saharan African migrant physicians identified in the US
physician workforce
3,000
(Graduation cohorts)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
SSA-trained
US-trained
Sources: American Medical Association; Tankwanchi et al. (2013).
Trained elsewhere
2000-10
1990-99
1980-89
1970-79
1969-earlier
2000-10
1990-99
1980-89
1970-79
1969-earlier
2000-10
1990-99
1980-89
1970-79
1969-earlier
0
Some countries saw a rise in outflows …
Share of Sub-Saharan African-trained international medical graduates in
the U.S. physician workforce
70
(in percent of total physicians in source countries)
Data as of 2011
60
50
Liberia
40
30
Ethiopia
20
Ghana
Zimbabwe
10
Tanzania Zambia
Cameroon Nigeria
Uganda
South Africa
Sudan
Kenya
0
0
10
20
30
40
Data as of 2002
Sources: American Medical Association; Tankwanchi et al. (2013).
50
60
70
… with young qualified physicians
exiting Africa’s labor force.
Characteristics of the SSA born and trained doctors in the U.S.
(Data as of 2011)
9
Years of service
before migrating
to the U.S.
7
Nigeria
South Africa
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Sudan
Cameroon
Liberia
Zimbabwe
Kenya
Ghana
Zambia
Uganda
5
3
27
29
31
33
35
37
Estimated mean age at U.S. entry
Sources: American Medical Association; Tankwanchi et al. (2013); and author's calculation.
Is the Sub-Saharan region benefiting from remittances?
Remittance inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa have fully
recovered their pre-crisis levels …
Africa: Remittances and Aid in comparison to pre-crisis levels
(2007=100)
Remittance-to-pre-crisis level
Aid-to-pre-crisis level
113.0
100
100
113.1
125.1
123.8
105.3
110.4
2007
2008
2009
2010
Sources: African Development Indicators; author's computation
133.0
118.6
2011
… and represent an effective insurance mechanism
against disasters events …
Remittances inflows around natural disaster events
in Sub-Saharan Africa
(median values in percent of GDP; average over 1980-2010)
0.9
0.6
0.3
0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
Time
Sources: EM-DAT CRED; and author's calculations.
+2
+3
+4
… and during political conflicts.
Remittances inflows around major conflict events into Africa
(median values in percent of GDP; average over 1980-2011)
3.5
Battle deaths > 100 casualties
3
Battle deaths > 500 casualties
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
Time
Sources: African Development Indicators; and author's calculations.
+4
Remittance inflows also help mitigate food price shocks …
Remittances and Food price shocks
20
Combes, Ebeke, Ntsama, and Yogo (2013). World Development.
10
15
18.05
9.81
0
5
8.44
High
Intermediate
Range of vulnerability to food price shocks
Low
Remittance inflows are strongly associated with booms in the
construction sector in SSA…
Remittances inflows around booms in the construction sector
in Sub-Saharan Africa
(median values in percent of GDP; average over 1980-2012)
3
2
1
0
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
Time
Sources: African Dev. Indicators; and author's calculations.
+3
+4
… thereby reducing the prevalence of working poverty.
Remittances reduce working poverty
-40
-20
0
20
40
SWZ
IDN
IDN
IDN
COG
IND SWZ
PAK FJI
IDN
IND
PAK
NGA
LAOBWA
LAOSEN
LAO
GIN
MLI
TZA
IDN
NGA
SEN
PAK
VNM
MDG
LBR
GIN
CMR
ZMB
VEN
VEN
PNG
BGD
BGD
MEX
RWA
GAB
MDG
SEN
ZMB
VEN
NAM
MDG
MEX
BGD
MDG
PAN
BFA
MEX
NPL
MEX
PAK
GHA
MLI
MEX
BLZ
COL
VEN
RWA
GEO
PAKUGA
MOZ
MEX
MEX
MDA
BLZ
HND
BEN
GNB
MEX
UGA
ZAF
BFA
KHM
DOM
MLI
JAM
PAN
MEX
MOZ
BFA
ZAF
PHL
COL
BGD
TJK
ARG
CRI
COL
C
OL
UGA
MYS
ARG
PHL
CAF
VNM
KGZ
VNM
CRI
CHL
KAZ
CHL
PAN
SUR
DOM
MRT
COL
KHM
CRI
PAN
KAZ
CRI
MYS
BLR
KAZ
PAN
ECU
NPL
PAN
CRI
CHL
E
CU
DOM
ARG
PAN
BOL
VEN
GTM
CRI
ARG
GTM
SLV
TUR
CRI
JAM
PER
SEN
JPHL
AM
CHL
COL
TUR
KGZ
MYS
MDA
ARM
GNB
MWI
CRI
DOM
PER
CMR
ARM
THA
HND
NGA
GTM
BOL
ZAF
BRA
BRA
GHA
PER
HND
URY
PAN
PAN
JAM
URY
SLV
BRA
BRA
PER
MOZ
MDV
BRA
THA
THA
ECU
NER
GIN
PHL
SLV
IRN
THA
PER
PAN
DOM
MYS
SLE
LKA
KGZ
BRA
GEO
ARG
PHL
SLV
NER
VNM
ECU
ZAF
SLV
BRA
LKA
SLV
BRA
TUR
SLV
ARM
HND
THA
GEO
UGA
BRA
THA
DOM
SLV
BRA
SLV
AZE
GHA
NER
SRB
ARM
TJK
LKA
MKD
PER
MKD
BLR
DOM
ECU
LKA
BDI
PRY
GEO
HND
CPV
ARM
ARG
GMB
TUR
SLB
BOL ECU
CIV
IRNIRN
ALB
NIC
BOLTGO
ARM
KAZ
UKR
MNG
TUN
HND
DOM
TUN
ETH
CIV
PRY
NIC YEM
NIC
EGY
CIV
BIH MDA
AZE
HND
MRT
PRY
JOR
MKD
UKR
MDV
MKD
ETH
PRY
MKD
KEN
EGY
AZE
NIC
CIV
ALB
EGY
CIV
ETH GUYPRY
ARM
PRY
PRY
EGY
MDA MAR
MAR
ALB KGZ
JOR
MAR
GUY KENSYR
BIH
KGZ
ALB
JOR YEM
KEN
ALB
KEN
JOR MDA
BIH MDA
DJI
-10
0
10
20
30
Remittance-to-GDP residuals
Data sources: ILO KILM 7th Edition dataset, The World Bank; and Ebeke et al. (2013).
Now, let’s discuss some new empirical evidences:
Political and Institutional Effects of Migration
Migration and Transfers of Norms
• Return migration and:
– Voter turnout rates in Mali: (Chauvet and Mercier, 2013)
– Convergence in fertility choices in Egypt: (Bertoli and
Marchetta, 2013)
– Cross-country study of the convergence in fertility rates: Beine
et al. (2013).
• Migration and governance back home
– In Cape Verde: Batista and Vicente (2012)
• Emigration and democracy:
– Cross-country work: Docquier et al. (2011)
100
Remittance inflows are associated with lower political
accountability in Sub-Saharan Africa …
Ebeke and Yogo (2013).
80
RWA
AGO
MWI
TCD
60
BDI
ETH
CAF
TZAMDG
GNB
NAM
UGA
BEN
SLE
GMB
COM
GAB
MRT
CMR
NGA
BWA
NERMOZ
CIV
KEN
MLI
SEN
ZMB
SDN
BFA
LSO
20
40
ZWE
TGO
COG
GIN
GHA
0
2
4
Remittances per capita (log)
6
0.75
.4
.6
.8
… therefore reducing the political business cycle.
Combes, Ebeke and Maurel (2013).
0.26
0.19
0
.2
0.17
[0, Q1]
[Q1, Q2]
[Q2, Q3]
Remittance-to-GDP range
[Q3, max]
How best to maximize the benefits of migration
in Sub-Saharan Africa?
More dual-citizenship laws?
150
Remittances are significantly larger in countries allowing
holding multiple-citizenships …
Ebeke (2013).
5
5.2
4
3.9
2
3
100
Remittances
in percent of GDP
50
142.9
0
0
1
40.1
0
No dual-citizenship
1
Dual-citizenship
0
1
No dual-ctizenship Dual-citizenship
… and so is the sensitivity of private investment to remittances.
(Ebeke, 2013).
.2
.3
0.32
0
.1
0.17
0
No dual-citizenship
1
Dual-citizenship
Barriers to people mobility exist, even in the
sending countries! Look at passport costs …
Passport costs are especially high in Sub-Saharan Africa
Passport costs around the developing world
(as percentage of GDP per capita)
70
60
TCD
BDI
50
RWA
40
30
20
10
0
ETH
NPL
NER
CAF
TZA
TJK
BFA
CMR
NGA
TUR
MRT
BEN
COG
BOL
GMB
BGD
AGO
PAK
SEN
LBN
ZMB
IND
ECU
HND
NIC
CHN
UKR
PER
AZE
LKA
VNM
ALB
MAR
HRV
IDN
EGY
GTM
MYS
LSO
COL
CHL
GHA
JAM
BRA
MEX
KEN
ROM
SYC
TUN
NAM
THA
PHL
ARG
BGR
ZAF
VEN
MUS
POL
SVK
CRI
RUS
SLV
LTU
KOR
SVN
HUN
ISR
EST
BWA
***
CZE
Sources: McKenzie, D. (2005); The World Bank Group.
How about remittance transaction costs?
Sending money to Africa is more costly …
0
5
10
15
20
Cost of sending US$ 200 (in percent)
EAP
ECA
LAC
MENA
Source: World Bank; author's estimates.
SA
SSA
… and more so when considering within-Africa corridors.
5
10
15
20
25
Is sending remittances from SSA more expensive?
Outside SSA
Source: World Bank; and author's estimates.
SSA
Sending money to Africa also takes much more time to arrive…
0
2
4
6
Remittances: Median speed of transfers
EAP
ECA
LAC
MENA
Source: World Bank; and authors' estimates.
SA
SSA
2
3
4
5
6
Is sending money from Africa less rapid?
1
Speed
… and even more within Sub-Saharan Africa’s corridors.
Outside SSA
Source: World Bank; and author's estimates.
SSA
Costs are too high across operators, …
Cost of sending US$ 200 to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
5
10
15
20
(in percent of amount transfered)
Bank
MTO
Non-Bank FI
Source: World Bank; and author's estimates.
Post office
… , and sending money to Sub-Saharan Africa is achieved from
a less competitive market structure …
Remittance inflows: How competitive are the markets?
0
.5
1
1.5
2
Competition is lower regarding remittances sent to SSA
EAP
ECA
LAC
MENA
Source: World Bank; author's estimates
SA
SSA
… especially in within-Africa corridors.
0
.2
.4
.6
Are within-SSA corridors less competitive?
Outside SSA
Source: World Bank; and author's estimates.
SSA
Unresolved issues in the migration-development literature
I.
Long-term growth and development? Despite strong evidence that
migration and remittances lower poverty, no strong evidence that they
promote long-term growth. Why?
–
–
–
–
–
Does the size matter?
Brain drain?
Remittances fully consumed rather than re-invested?
Are remittances an engine of informal sector growth?
Public moral hazard: Migration/Remittances increase corruption (Abdih et al., 2011;
Ahmed, 2013), reduce public social spending (Ebeke, 2012).
– Private sector’s moral hazard: reduce accountability and voter turnout (Ebeke and Yogo,
2013), remittances and lower labor force supply.
II.
Harnessing the diasporas:
– How to maximize the re-investment of migrant remittances?
– and how to fully internalize the benefits of returnees?
Thank you for your attention.