Transcript Slide 1

Manitoba Clean Environment
Commission
Presentation Notes
Robert Hornung
President
Canadian Wind Energy Association
Presented April 6, 2004
Context
• I hope to provide you with information on
the wind energy industry that will be
useful in your deliberations
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Status of wind energy globally
Status of wind energy in Canada
Why wind energy makes sense for Canada
Future prospects for wind energy in Canada
• I have not reviewed any of the materials
associated with this hearing and I am in
no position to comment on the specific
project under review
Wind Energy – Global Status
• Fastest growing source of electricity in the world
– making a substantial and growing contribution
to electricity supply
• 2003 – 39,000 MW installed capacity up from
13,500 MW 5 years ago. (540 MW offshore)
– 8,000 MW installed globally in 2003
– 50 MW / week installed in Germany in 2003
• Distribution of Installed Capacity in 2003 (MW):
GER – 14,600, US – 6,300, ESP – 6,200, DK –
3,100, IND – 2,000
• $US 6 billion industry in 2003
– 70,000 jobs (DK – 21,000, GER – 14,000, ESP –
10,000)
Wind Energy – Global Trends
• Leading Nations have aggressive targets (IEA;
Wind Power Monthly)
– Germany 3,000 MW offshore X 2010
– Spain 13,000 MW X 2010
– India 5,000 MW X 2012
• Other nations moving forward as well (IEA; Wind
Power Monthly)
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Japan 3,000 MW X 2010
China 4,000 MW X 2010; 20,000 MW by 2020
France 6,000 MW by 2007
UK 6,000 MW offshore by 2010
Italy 2,500 MW by 2010
• Globally (BTM Consulting)
– 95,000 MW X 2008
– 194,000 MW X 2013
Installed Wind Energy in Canada
1 MW
104 MW
170 MW
14 MW
22 MW
15 MW
1 MW
February 2004: Canada has 327 MW of installed wind
energy capacity, ranking Canada 13th in the world
Wind Energy Growth in Canada
350
300
250
200
Installed Capacity (MW)
150
100
50
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
•Average annual growth rate of 27.5% over last 5 years
•2003 a record year – 86 MW installed in Alberta,
Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec, Prince Edward Island.
•2004 will likely break the record – high probability that a
minimum 140 MW will be installed (43% over 2003) in
Alberta, Quebec, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia –
could be significantly higher.
Why Wind Energy in Canada?
• Excellent wind resources in all regions (large
land mass and long coastlines)
– No national wind resource map at this time
(coming fall 2004)
– Canada has no shortage of wind resource
(Environment Canada says 100,000 MW of
potential in northern Quebec alone) – the
issue is what is practical given transmission
and interconnection issues
– Countries have already demonstrated that
wind energy can provide significant amounts
of electricity (Denmark – 15-20%; Spain 4 –
6%; Germany 3-5%)
– CanWEA has advocated an initial target of
10,000 MW by 2010 (4-5%)
The Wind / Hydro Link
• Wind is an intermittent resource
• Hydro an excellent match for wind
– Energy storage (when blows or not – optimize use of wind)
– Peak production in winter (wind and density) when hydro
weakest
• Understanding what “intermittent” means
– Wind turbines produces energy more than 85% of the time
(capacity factor does not equal production time), it’s just that
the level of production varies
– If wind energy produces 10% of the electricity in the grid, the
variability associated with wind energy production is still
much smaller that the regular changes in demand for
electricity the grid must already account for
• Variability can be managed through:
– Distributed generation
– Wind forecasting
Why Wind Energy in Canada
• Increasing electricity prices (natural gas)
make all electricity alternatives more
attractive
– Wind one of the few where cost is projected to
continue to decline (3-5% / year) for at least
another decade
– Domestic manufacturing could further reduce
costs (5-10%)
– Wind has no fuel cost – growing
attractiveness as a hedge
• Shortages of supply (Ont, Que, Atl)
– Modular and quick to put in place
Economic Benefits of Wind
• Every 1 MW installed produces:
– $1.5 million in investment
– 2.5 direct job-years and 8 indirect jobyears of employment
– Tax revenue for governments
– Many of these benefits in rural areas
Economic Benefits of Wind:
Pincher Creek Case Study
• Small rural community (pop. 6,810) - historically
agriculture/ beef industry economy
• First wind farm – 1993, today 30% of Canada’s wind
energy capacity (145 turbines, 96 MW)
• Tomorrow: 68 MW under construction and 3 new projects
approved - 155 MW
The Benefits:
• $10 million directly into local / regional economy
– Electricians, labourers, concrete, cranes, etc
– Purchase/rental of equipment, supplies, meals, etc
• 3 wind companies => head offices/field offices
• 21 FT jobs in Municipality, $1.4 M payroll
• $900,000 in annual taxes to municipality
• Annual lease payments to landowners - $3k/turbine
• Boost to local tourism industry
Current Policy Framework
• Federal Wind Power Production Incentive
– 1.2 cents – 0.8 cents / kwh payment for 10
years
– 1,000 MW target by 2007
• 6,300 MW of projects have submitted
letters of intent
• Federal Government projects that its
Wind Power Production Incentive (1,000
MW) will be fully subscribed by 2006
Future Policy Framework –
Grounds for Potential Growth
• Proposed Renewable Portfolio
Standards
- Ontario (10% by 2010) – 300 MW RFP
to be released shortly
- PEI (10% by 2010)
- NS (3.75% new by 2011)
- Alberta (3.5% new by 2008)
- NB expected to develop this year
Future Policy Framework –
Grounds for Potential Growth
• Requests for Proposals
– Quebec (1,000 MW wind energy)
– Saskatchewan (150 MW wind energy)
– New Brunswick (100 MW wind energy)
• Pursuing First Projects
– Manitoba (100 MW)
– Newfoundland (25 MW)
– British Columbia (50 MW)
Summary of Potential Provincial
Wind / Renewable Energy
Framework Initiatives
• If implemented, provincial framework
initiatives projected to lead to
minimum of 3,600 MW of wind
energy by 2010
• CanWEA (and provincial
governments including Manitoba)
have asked the Federal Government
to expand the Wind Power
Production Incentive to support a
4,000 MW target by 2010