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Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
Deutsche Bank
Perspectivas Económicas Globales:
América Latina y Argentina
Pre-Coloquio Centro, IDEA
Rosario, 24 de Agosto, 2011
Gustavo Cañonero, Managing Director
Chief Economist
Emerging Markets
Deutsche Bank Securities
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Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 007/05/2010
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
Gustavo Cañonero
[email protected]
August 24, 2011
(212) 250 – 7530
Fernando Losada
[email protected]
(212) 250 - 3162
INDICE
I. G7: Problemas Estructurales y Consecuencias.
De EEUU a EU/Japón.
II. EM: Creciente “Decoupling” de Largo Plazo, pero
Sincronización en el Corto
III. América Latina: Perspectiva Regional
IV. Argentina
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
I. Problemas Globales y
Consecuencias
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
EEUU: La recuperación se volvió a desacelerar
Index
ISM composite index (50+ = econ expand, ls)
%qoq, AR
Real GDP growth (rs)
65
9
60
6
55
3
50
0
45
-3
40
-6
35
-9
1997
Source:
1999
2001
ISM, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
EEUU: Y los pronósticos del crecimiento han caído
Source:
Bloomberg Finance LP, DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
EEUU: La recuperación ha sido históricamente
más lenta de todos modos
%
Percent deviation of GDP from potential
%
Average of previous 10 recessions
6
Current recession/recovery
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
Shaded area shows range
during 10 previous
recessions
-6
-8
-4
-6
-8
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
Source:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
"0" implies recession end quarter
BEA, CBO, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
EEUU: En gran parte por el proceso de
desendeudamiento privado…
Ratio
Ratio
Household debt/ income
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
50
Source:
55
60
65
70
FRB, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
...que explica la permanente vulnerabilidad del
consumo privado desde 2008
%
3m % chg, AR
Personal saving rate (LS)
9
Real consumer spending (RS)
6
8
4
7
2
6
0
5
-2
4
Dec-08
-4
Source:
Dec-09
BEA, DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
Dec-10
EEUU: Además, la alta deuda pública limita los
márgenes de política y crea mayor
incertidumbre
% of GDP
200
180
160
% of GDP
Federal debt
Admin 2012 budget + CBO L-T
Fiscal commission/Obama(?)
Forecasts
200
180
160
140
120
140
120
100
100
80
60
80
60
40
20
40
20
0
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source:
usgovernmentspending.com, Fiscal Commission, CBO, DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
EEUU: La cobertura de salud es parte del
problema, complicando la economía política de
cualquier solución
% of GDP
% of GDP
CBO projections under current policies
25
25
20
20
15
15
Medicare and Medicaid spending with
inflation premium of: 2-1/2%
10
10
1%
5
5
Social security
0
1962
1970
1978
1986
Source: CBO, DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
1994
2002
2010
2018
2026
2034
2042
0
2050
Ranking de riesgo país: EEUU es sólo un ejemplo
(Basado en déficits externos y deuda pública)
Index
Index
More risky
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Numbers on top are
5Y CDS spreads
50
377
109
250
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
Germany
Finland
Netherlands
Austria
Belgium
France
Japan
UK
Spain
US
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
50
OECD, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
162
102
Greece
Source:
Less risky
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
II. EM: Desacoplados pero
Sincronizados
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
El crecimiento de mercados emergentes también se
desacelera, aunque mantiene buen ritmo por ahora
Indicadores de producción manufacturera
EM: Desacoplados pero no aislados (%YoY)
PMI Indices
60
8
55
6
50
4
45
2
40
G7 Trend
EM cycle
G7 cycle
0
Asia
LatAm
EMEA
35
EM trend
-2
-4
30
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Source: IMF, Haver, DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
Jul-11
-6
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Mayor asociación entre emergentes genera menor
dependencia hacia los países desarrollados, pero
mayor apertura mas sincronización de ciclos
Destino de comercio exterior (X+M %PBI)
70%
JAPAN
EU
US
EMASIA
EMEA
LATAM
Exportaciones por productos (% PBI)
35.0%
60%
30.0%
50%
25.0%
40%
20.0%
30%
15.0%
20%
10.0%
10%
5.0%
0%
0.0%
LATAM
EMEA
Source: Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
EM ASIA
Others
LATAM
Fuels & energy
Industrial goods
EMEA
Primary goods
EMASIA
III. Perspectiva para América Latina
Fuerte crecimiento jaqueado por la
posible depresión global
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
Crecimiento económico sigue pero la
desaceleración es inevitable
Crecimiento del PBI
% YoY
10
2009
Inflación
2010
2011
% YoY
30
2012
8
2009
25
6
2010
2011
2012
20
4
15
2
0
10
-2
5
-4
0
-6
-8
-5
ARG
BRA
CHI
COL
MEX
PEN
VEN
ARG
BRA
(% yoy unless stated)
2009
2010
2011
2012
Real GDP growth
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
BRA
CHI
COL
MEX
Source: Global Market Research
Deutsche Bank
MEX
PEN
VEN
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
PEN
VEN
2009
2010E
2011F
2012F
-2.5
6.1
4.1
3.9
Priv. consumption
-0.5
5.6
4.9
4.5
Investment
-9.5
13.6
7.3
5.8
6.3
8.4
8.2
7.9
Exports, USD bn
609.8
776.8
889.7
942.4
Imports, USD bn
534.9
703.8
813.2
897.2
Industrial production
-7.6
7.3
4.8
4.5
Unemployment (%)
7.8
6.8
6.5
6.5
Fiscal bal. (% of GDP)
-3.0
-2.4
-2.2
-2.1
CA bal. (% of GDP)
-0.4
-0.8
-1.0
-1.7
Inflation
ARG
COL
Proyecciones
Saldo de cuenta corriente
% GDP
CHI
Aunque las bases sólidas se mantienen
2009
Crec. PBI (%)
Argentina
Brasil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
-3.1
-0.6
-1.7
0.8
-6.5
0.9
-2.9
2010E 2011F
9.2
7.5
5.2
4.3
5.5
8.8
-1.4
6.9
3.5
5.9
5.1
4.1
6.2
2.8
2012F
3.1
3.4
5.5
5.4
3.7
5.7
2.8
2009
Inflación (eop,%)
Argentina
14.8
Brasil
4.3
Chile
-1.5
Colombia
2.0
Mexico
3.6
Peru
0.3
Venezuela
26.9
2010E
2011F
2012F
25.2
5.9
3.0
3.2
4.4
2.1
27.2
24.1
6.3
4.1
3.4
3.4
3.1
24.0
26.8
5.1
3.3
3.4
3.5
2.6
25.0
DB_Forecast
DB_Forecast
_CURRENT_ACCT_BAL
Actual_Release_Value
DB_Forecast
DB_Forecast
DB_Forecast
2009 2010E 2011F 2012F
Cuenta Corriente(%PBI)
Argentina
3.2
1.4
0.3
-0.8
Brasil
-1.5
-2.3
-2.2
-3.0
Chile
1.6
1.9
0.4
-0.6
Colombia
-2.3
-3.7
-2.9
-2.9
Mexico
-0.6
-0.6
-0.9
-1.0
Peru
0.2
-1.6
-1.7
-2.5
Venezuela
2.2
4.6
4.3
2.6
Source: Global Market Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
_FX_RATE
Fx (eop)
Argentina
Brasil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
3.80
1.74
506
2044
13.09
2.90
2.15
3.98
1.67
468
1908
12.34
2.80
4.30
4.28
1.60
480
1790
11.90
2.80
4.30
5.13
1.75
505
1800
12.25
2.90
5.20
En LA, la performance económica reciente ha tenido
mucho de suerte y poco de inversión, Colombia y
Perú las excepciones
Estimaciones utilizando cálculos de equilibrio parcial
Avg. Per Capita
Growth
2004-2008
Growth Change
2004-08 vs
1990-2003
5.35
10.96
6.88
4.41
3.91
3.89
3.58
3.79
1.08
2.37
3.17
1.19
-1.24
-0.20
2.56
-0.28
-1.06
3.12
3.62
-0.15
-2.03
-5.92
-2.72
-3.34
1.68
2.97
3.35
2.85
-1.43
0.29
3.80
-0.06
-1.23
-2.01
0.13
0.35
-4.48
-0.37
-0.87
-1.40
1.02
0.05
-0.30
2.27
0.44
1.40
-0.44
3.73
0.68
-1.76
-3.63
-4.13
6.25
4.41
2.80
0.79
EMEA
CZE
HUN
ISR
POL
ROM
RUS
SAS
TUR
4.94
4.80
3.03
3.08
5.44
7.41
7.39
3.74
4.65
3.89
3.80
1.47
1.31
1.98
7.29
8.79
3.88
2.60
-0.67
-1.55
-1.02
-1.25
-1.42
2.80
-2.92
0.67
-0.68
-0.75
2.00
-5.13
1.17
1.39
-2.32
-1.55
0.25
-1.81
0.85
0.20
-0.59
-0.27
0.78
0.20
6.50
1.30
-1.28
-0.92
0.19
-0.92
0.00
-0.62
-1.85
1.03
-2.46
-2.75
5.38
2.95
9.13
1.66
1.85
8.46
5.73
4.12
9.11
LATAM
ARG
BRA
CHL
COL
MEX
PER
VEN
5.12
7.39
3.65
3.81
3.88
2.35
6.33
8.43
3.86
5.93
3.28
-0.18
2.78
0.87
4.90
9.40
0.85
0.52
-0.05
-1.63
4.12
0.66
2.17
0.13
2.09
2.78
2.54
2.19
1.84
-0.01
2.01
3.28
3.56
2.12
0.63
5.32
3.03
0.69
2.47
10.67
-0.84
1.84
-1.78
-3.99
-0.01
-1.43
-0.47
-0.03
-1.80
-1.33
1.94
-2.07
-6.20
0.96
-1.29
-4.64
EM ASIA
CHN
IND
IDN
KOR
MYS
PHL
THA
Source: IMF, World Bank, and Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
Estimated Contribution to Growth Acceleration
Production
Macro
Manufacture
Factors
Variables
ToT
Share
Residual
IV. Argentina
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
Argentina: lista para sobresalir o para volver a
defraudar!





El crecimiento se mantiene fuerte pero las política económica se enfrenta con
condicionantes crecientes. El gasto público no ha sustituido ni promovido la
inversión privada.
Sin inversión, las políticas expansivas generan aún más inflación. Y la inflación
es un “impuesto” regresivo.
El tipo de cambio no puede ser la única herramienta para mantener la inflación
estable. El peso aún no está sobrevaluado pero su apreciación es muy rápida.
La probable reelección con un fuerte mandato de la Presidente CFK puede ser
una gran oportunidad para corregir algunas limitaciones del modelo actual. De
lo contrario la salida de capitales puede continuar y la moderación será
impuesta por el ahorro precautorio del sector privado.
El contexto internacional le está dando a la Argentina la oportunidad del
centenio…..
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
El crecimiento económico post default fue posible dado un
tipo de cambio competitivo a nivel internacional, excelentes
términos de intercambio, una sólida recuperación en Brasil y
una significativa reducción de la carga de la deuda externa.
FUERTE DEVALUACION COMPETITIVA
– El abandono de la convertibilidad en el 2002 generó
Contribuciones externas al crecimiento actual
ToT (1990=100) (RHS)
REER w/Bs.As. City Index (1990=100)
350
170
160
300
una depreciación del peso de más del 100% en
términos reales.
– Entre 2002-2010 el peso se mantuvo, en promedio,
un 43% más competitivo que en la década anterior.
Hoy todavía es un 13% más débil que en esa década.
150
140
250
130
120
200
110
100
150
90
100
MEJORAS EN LOS TÉRMINOS DE INTERCAMBIO
– Los
términos de intercambio mejoraron 44% desde
2002, a una tasa anual del 5.5%.
EL CRECIMIENTO BRASILERO SE DUPLICÓ
– Brasil absorve
la mayor parte de las exportaciónes
industriales argentinas, aprox. 8% del PBI.
80
DISMINUCIÓN SIGNIFICATIVA DE LA DEUDA
– Los
Source: MinFin and DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
servicios de la deuda externa disminuyeron
notablemente: de 15% del PBI en 2001 a 8% del PBI
en 2010.
– Del mismo modo, los servicios de la deuda para el
sector público disminuyeron del 10% del PBI al 5%.
Expansión fiscal ha sido uno de los motores de
crecimiento
El comportamiento de los números fiscales
% GDP
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Primary surplus
Nominal balance
3.22
1.16
3.20
1.44
1.60
-0.66
1.84
0.22
0.50
-0.80
CB profits*
Other rents
0.18
0.35
0.52
0.30
0.46
0.99
1.56
0.80
0.58
0.60
Transfers to private
priv.sector
sec.
Export taxes
3.54
2.56
4.46
3.55
4.84
2.96
5.56
3.34
6.35
3.04
M emo item:
Primary spending
17.3
18.4
22.4
23.8
25.2
Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
El alto crecimiento económico no generó aumento de la
inversión ni de la capacidad productiva debido a la fuerte
intervención estatal. El resultado: aumento de la inflación.
Crecimiento sin inversión
Unemployment rate % (lfh)
25
3.00
20
2.50
2.00
15
1.50
10
1.00
5
0.50
0
-
Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
45%
40%
35%
Capital stock/GDP
Unemployment (%)
Capital stock/GDP (rhs)
Notable aumento de la inflación
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
CPI-BsAs City, YoY
CPI-Indec, YoY
El financiamiento fácil también se esta acabando
Deterioro del balance del BCRA
USD mn
Mayores necesidades netas de financiamiento
15-May-07 15-May-11 31-Dec-11
ASSETS
Net international reserves
Public bonds
Advances to the government
Others
64,705
39,612
11,590
5,961
7,542
102,815
52,031
30,825
11,323
8,636
103,805
48,031
30,666
14,027
11,081
LIABILITIES
Base money
Deposits in other currencies
Government deposits
BCRA letters and notes
Others
57,006
26,775
2,289
1,641
20,243
6,058
92,767
42,205
9,325
8,193
24,896
8,148
101,814
48,722
11,894
3,203
26,904
11,091
M emo items
NIR/Assets
NIR/Money base
NIR/CB intruments
61%
148%
69%
51%
123%
56%
46%
99%
47%
Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
USD mn
2010
2011
2012
Net capital payments
Net interest payments
Warrants (excluding est.public holdings)
4776
2900
0
5000
3100
1543
4700
3070
2106
Total financing needs
Primary Surplus
Net financing needs
7676
6401
1275
9643
4201
5442
9876
4653
5223
BCRA reserves
BCRA advances
9500
1981
9877
2411
0
979
Mientras tanto, la holgura externa se reduce
debido a un tipo de cambio más fuerte y el
aumento de la demanda NETA por energía.
Balanza comercial y energética
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Trade Balance
-5,000
Energy Balance
-10,000
2004
2005
Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
La salida de capitales refleja las dudas sobre la
sustentabilidad y, eventualmente, puede imponer
un ajuste forzado e innecesario.
Aumento de la salida de capitales en los últimos meses
Change in assets abroad (USD bn 3MMA, LHS)
1
15%
0
10%
-1
5%
-2
0%
-3
-5%
-4
-10%
-5
-15%
-6
-20%
Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research
Deutsche Bank
GDP growth (YoY, RHS)
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011
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Deutsche Bank
Gustavo Cañonero
August 24, 2011