Transcript The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

Changing Face of the Texas
Labor Market
January 15, 2009
Richard Froeschle
[email protected]
Texas Workforce Commission/LMCI
(512) 491-4941
www.lmci.state.tx.us
Tell Me About the Labor Market…
1. Current labor market conditions- Snapshot of current
economic measures. What do the numbers tell us about the
labor market relative to historical periods, e.g. Urate, payroll
job growth, labor force growth, personal income, sales taxes,
GDP growth, college enrollments & graduations, etc.
2. Where is the labor market headed. What do we expect the
labor market will look like in the foreseeable future. How will
the present situation change, e.g projected industry and
occupational job growth and decline, expected demographics
3. What is the environmental context, business climate and
likely structural transformations that will shape future job
growth and creation. What are the larger trends that will
influence business decisions and the demand for workers, e.g.
impact of globalization, technology, demographic trends etc.
Economic Truth About
Predicting Recessions
“ Nobody ever sees anything coming.
Nobody saw stagflation coming,
nobody saw the Great Depression
coming, nobody saw Pearl Harbor or
9/11 coming. Really big, bad things
tend to be surprises.”
Laurence Ball, economist at Johns Hopkins University
Understanding the Texas Economy:
In Search of Convergent Validity
Gleaning Wisdom from Data…
• The Japanese eat
• The Italians eat
LESS red meat and
MORE red meat and
drink less red wine
drink much more red
than do Americans or wine than do
the British—and they Americans or the
have a much lower
British--and yet they
incidence of heart
too have a lower
incidence of heart
attacks.
attacks.
We’re from Texas: What country are you from?
• We have NASA so we control the space industry.
• We have all the oil and gas that we will need for the next
300 years & refine over 85% of the gasoline in the U.S.
• We have 65% of the Defense Industry; The term "Don't
mess with Texas," takes on a whole new meaning.
• We got technology: Texas leads the nation in producing
computer chips and communications equipment.
• We have our own food; Texas is self-sufficient in beef,
poultry, hogs, sea food & several types of grain, fruit and
vegetables; and every Texan knows how to cook.
• We have a ready supply of workers. We could just open
the border when we need some more.
OTM Employment Change 2002-2008
60,000
500,000
50,000
400,000
40,000
300,000
30,000
200,000
20,000
100,000
10,000
0
0
-100,000
-10,000
-200,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
TX Employment Change
US Employment Change
-300,000
-400,000
Single Family Housing Permit (units)
25,000
160,000
140,000
20,000
120,000
100,000
15,000
80,000
10,000
60,000
40,000
5,000
20,000
0
TX Unit Permits
CA Unit Permits
FLA Unit Permits
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-06
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-05
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-04
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-03
Sep-02
May-02
Jan-02
Sep-01
May-01
Jan-01
Sep-00
May-00
Jan-00
0
US Unit Permits
Harry Truman is purported to have said,
All my economists
say, “on the one, or
on the other
hand”…what I really
need is a one-handed
economist.
The Rise of Behavioral Economics
“Behavioral economics focuses on the ways
humans fail to act as rational, selfinterested beings that economic models call
for—we aren’t good at thinking about the
future, we’re susceptible to peer pressure,
we overestimate our abilities and underrate
the odds of bad things happening.”
Robert Shiller, Yale University economist
The “Two Minds” of the Global Economy I
As Consumers/Investors, we
like…
• Big Box retailers give us
one-stop shopping
• Difficult for smaller
convenience (the WalMart
companies to
premium)
compete
•
Global
investment
• Widening income and
opportunities, diversified
wealth inequality
portfolio & higher rates of
return
• Job instability, job
portability, job
• More productive &
profitable ways to do
volatility, offshore
business; offshoring,
potential of American
temps, outsourcing,
jobs
foreign skilled labor
As Citizens, we don’t
like…
The “Two Minds” of the Global Economy II
As Citizens, we don’t
like…
As Consumers/Investors, we
like…
• More opportunities for
• Soaring CEO pay relative
entrepreneurs, more
to worker wages
millionaires per capita!
• Lowered sense of
• Better shopping! Access
“community” in a global
to “stuff” created
world
anywhere in the world
• Reduced loyalty: firms to
workers, workers to firms, • Global competition
results in lower product
consumers to firms (brand
prices
loyalty)
U.S. Gross Domestic Product 2008
Business
Investment
Federal
14.0%
Government
7.4%
State & Local
Government
12.7%
International
Trade
-5.0%
Consumer
Purchases
(Services)
42.3%
Consumer
Purchases
(Goods)
28.6%
The Downward Cycle for Consumers
1. Real Estate/Home Values
2. Stock Prices/Investment Portfolio
3. Wealth Effect
4. Job Losses/Unemployment
5. Borrowed Money/Credit
Consumer Spending
National Average Credit Scores
% of Population
2%
5%
8%
12%
15%
18%
27%
13%
National Average is 680
Credit Score
300 - 499
500 - 549
550 - 599
600 - 649
650 - 699
700 - 749
750 - 799
800 - 850
Credit Scores Affect Consumer Borrowing
State
Low FICO
State
High FICO
Texas
651
South Dakota
710
Nevada
655
Minnesota
703
Arizona
659
North Dakota
706
New Mexico
663
Vermont
706
Louisiana
663
Mass
703
South Carolina
665
New Hampshire
703
Oklahoma
666
Montana
701
North Carolina
667
Iowa
700
Mississippi
668
Maine
699
Georgia
668
Wisconsin
699
Unemployment has Many Faces
• Frictional – Lack of information makes it difficult
for employers and jobseekers to locate each
other in a timely & efficient way
• Seasonal – Different calendar periods are
normally slower or more robust than average
• Structural – Mismatch between skills in demand
and the skills and abilities of the workforce
• Cyclical or demand deficient – Insufficient
economic activity causes even appropriately
skilled workers to have trouble finding suitable
employment
How is the Texas Economy Performing?
It Depends on Your Personal Perspective!
It’s doing well if….
• Employed w/ marketable •
•
& transferable skills
• Nursing, Home Health Care •
•
• Medical/Drs. Assistants
• Therapists &Therapy Aides •
• IT, DBA, Network Systems •
•
• Construction & Utilities
• Wind, Renewable Energy •
•
• Teaching, all levels
•
• Oil & Gas industry
• Cross/Multi-disciplinary •
It’s not doing well if…
Unemp w/Undefined skills
Repetitive, Rules-based Jobs
Textile/Apparel Sector
Small Farmer/Rancher
Telemarketer/Travel Agent
Financial Sector
Production Assembler
Order, Grocery or File Clerk
Mail & Postal Clerks
Low education, technophobic
Geographically immobile
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
90
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
Jul-00
Jan-00
Jul-99
Jan-99
Jul-98
Jan-98
Jul-97
Jan-97
Jul-96
Jan-96
Jul-95
Jan-95
Texas Goods Producing Sector
Indexed Employment 1995=100
180
170
160
Construction
150
140
130
120
Total Texas Job Growth
110
Mining
100
Manufacturing
80
Texas Industry Job Growth from 2005 to 2008
NAICS Industry
Educational Testing & Support Services
Ship & Boat Building (rigs)
Support Activities for Mining
Motor Vehicle Manufacture
Heavy Engineering & Civil Construction
Machinery & Equip Lease and Rental
Utility System Construction
Office Administrative Services (fee based)
Construction & Mining Machinery
Boiler & Shipping Container Manufacture
Marketing & Technical Consulting Services
Net Growth Pct Growth
3,149
3,690
43,906
3,452
5,748
5,103
21,912
15,646
13,979
2,840
20,983
134.9%
82.4%
56.3%
55.8%
49.4%
46.7%
44.4%
44.2%
41.7%
38.8%
37.5%
Texas Industry Job Growth from 2005 to 2008
NAICS Industry
Elementary & Secondary Schools
Limited Service Eating Places
Support Activities for Mining
Full-service Restaurants
Employment Services
Home Health Care Services
Building Equipment Contractors
Architectural & Engineering Services
Utility System Construction
Marketing & Technical Consulting Services
Offices of Physicians
Net Growth Pct Growth
49,484
46,584
43,906
35,020
28,747
25,509
25,332
25,019
21,912
20,983
20,300
6.8%
14.8%
56.3%
11.1%
13.2%
15.4%
18.6%
21.7%
44.4%
37.5%
13.4%
Estimated Occupational Demand for 3,690 Job Increase
in Ship and Boat Building Industry (NAICS 3366)
SOC Occupational Title
Total, All Workers
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers
Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters
First-Line Supervisors of Production Workers
Team Assemblers
Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators
Hand Laborers & Freight, Material Movers
Machinists
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters
Painters, Transportation Equipment
Helpers--Production Workers
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
Electricians
Staffing Required
Pattern Workers
100.00% 3,690
21.00%
775
9.49%
350
6.41%
237
4.14%
153
3.80%
140
2.89%
107
2.80%
103
2.78%
103
2.59%
96
2.27%
84
2.24%
83
1.95%
72
Fastest Growing Texas Occupations -- Bachelors Plus
Occupation Title (1,000 jobs)
Growth Rate
2006-16
Annual Pay
Network Systems/Data Com Analyst
Special Education Teacher
55.5%
48.5%
$67,418
$44,824
Computer Software Engineer, Apps
46.3%
$86,217
Physician Assistant
46.1%
$81,959
Instructional Coordinator
43.4%
$57,610
Teachers, Kinder thru Middle School
42.0%
$44,216
Physical Therapist
38.9%
$77,294
Athletic Trainer
38.7%
$44,008
Anesthesiologist
38.5%
$176,254
Obstetrician/Gynecologist
Graduate Teaching Assistant
38.1%
36.3%
$190,362
$31,043
Most Openings Texas Occupations -- Bachelors Plus
Occupation Title (1,000 jobs)
Teachers, Kinder thru Middle School
Openings
2006-16
19,905
Annual Pay
$44,216
General & Operations Manager
5,225
$102,239
Accountants & Auditors
3,960
$61,369
Computer Systems Analyst
2,740
$74,642
Business Operations Specialist
2,585
$64,384
Construction Manager
2,525
$66,435
Computer Software Engineer, Apps
Lawyer
1,880
1,660
$86,217
$120,072
Management Analyst
1,610
$68,715
Insurance Sales Agent
Network & Computer Systems Admin
1,585
1,415
$50,298
$64,037
Fastest Growing Texas Occupations -- Associates/Cert
Occupation Title (1,000 jobs)
Physical Therapy Assistant
Growth Rate
2006-16
46.1%
Occupational Therapy Assistant
42.9%
$51,764
Surgical Technologist
Cardiovascular Technologist/Technician
41.9%
41.8%
$37,286
$44,461
Skin Care Specialist
41.5%
$27,100
Veterinary Technologist/Technician
40.3%
$25,271
Dental Hygienist
Respiratory Therapist
Registered Nurse
Radiation Therapist
Interpreter/Translator
38.6%
37.8%
37.8%
35.3%
34.9%
$63,225
$47,659
$59,714
$75,487
$42,630
Annual Pay
$51,589
Most Openings Texas Occupations -- Associates/Cert
Occupation Title (1,000 jobs)
Registered Nurse
Openings
2006-16
8,565
Annual Pay
$59,714
Restaurant Cook
4,120
$19,280
Nursing Aids and Orderlies
3,745
$20,690
Farmers & Ranchers
3,715
$35,432
Licensed Practical Nurse/LVN
3,375
$37,354
Police & Sheriff Patrol Officer
2,615
$46,454
Welders, Cutters & Brazers
Electricians
2,415
2,305
$32,666
$38,775
Computer Support Specialist
2,190
$44,025
Auto Service Techs/Mechanic
Carpenter
2,160
1,640
$34,884
$31,041
National Demand vs. Available Supply
Conference Board
Occupation Title
Unemployed/
Online Ads
Average Wage
Total, All Occupations
2.31
$19.56
Food Preparation and Serving
9.88
$9.35
Building and Grounds Maintenance
9.81
$11.33
Production Workers
6.98
$15.05
Personal Care and Service
4.91
$11.53
Sales and Related
2.86
$16.94
Office and Administrative Support
2.19
$15.00
Business and Financial Operations
.99
$30.01
Architecture and Engineering
.58
$33.11
Healthcare Practitioners/Technicians
.20
$31.26
Computer and Mathematical
.14
$34.71
On-line Help Wanted Ads in Texas
Conference Board
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
TX HWOL - Not Seasonally Adj
200,000
TX HWOL - Seasonally Adj
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
May-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
Nov-06
Sep-06
Jul-06
May-06
Mar-06
Jan-06
Nov-05
Sep-05
Jul-05
Jul-07
Linear (TX HWOL - Seasonally Adj)
150,000
May-05
Total Number of Unduplicated Ads
450,000
Online Job Openings in Texas September 2008
372,529 total unique ads placed
• Registered Nurse (27,219)
• Engineers (all) (9,984)
• Customer Service Reps
(8,439)
• Computer System Analysts
(8,167)
• Retail Sales Supervisors
(6,884)
• Physical Therapists (6,602)
• Accountants (6,149)
• Admin Assistants (6,051)
• Computer Support
Specialist (5,580)
• Heavy Truck Driver (5,538)
• Retail Salesperson (5,179)
• Sales Managers (5,112)
• Sales Reps, Man/Wholesale
(4,629)
• Occupational Therapist
(3,970)
• Applications Programmers
(3,968)
• Web Developers (3,705)
Decomposition of Work: Net Job Change
Masks Important Market Dynamics
1. Real industry growth viewed in terms of revenues,
profits & market share, not necessarily jobs, e.g.
Who’s making money vs. Who’s creating jobs?
2. Technological obsolescence & Labor substitution
work activities made obsolete through technology,
some replace workers
3. Emergence of new & blended occupations combining job duties from 2 or more occupations into
a single, “new” job… you’re a what? e.g. windmill
turbine mechanics, cable installers
4. Connecting education and the economy: How to
best match educational coursework & majors to
employer skill needs, What do I study to become
more employable?
Decomposition of Work: Labor Market Skill
Needs are Getting Tougher to Measure
5. Outsourcing arrangements e.g. IBM and Marriott
change work arrangements on paper affecting labor
market data, but not training needs
6. Patterns in use of temporary & contract workers –
Increasingly common use of the contingent workforce
7. Global Supply Chain Leakages -- lost jobs & $$$
through global supply chain mgmt. (decoupling of
production, labor and stock price)
8. Work Activity Off-loading -- passing off lower valueadded work to assistants/technicians
9. High resolution globalization -- tradable skills,
outsourcing specific work functions, not occupations
Where does the U.S. Fit
Into an Increasingly
Globalized Economy?
Globalization is Altering Our Perspective
1. Economic theory: what’s wrong with
Keynesian economics…global leakage!
2. Employer business practices: the drive for
greater productivity and market share in
a globally competitive economy
3. Labor supply options: not just U.S. FTEs
4. Decoupling of the labor market, stock
market and aggregate production
5. Creating competition for Commodities,
Kapital and Natural Resources
“”The world has arrived at a rare strategic
inflection point where nearly half its
population—living in China, India and
Russia—have been integrated into the
global market economy, many of them
highly educated workers, who can do
just about any job in the world. We’re
talking about three billion people.
Craig Barrett, CEO Intel 01/08/2004
Top 10 Richest World Economies 2006 and growth
rate 2000-2006 (mil$)
Where are the Growth Markets?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
United States
Japan
Germany
China
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Canada
Spain
Brazil
Russian Federation
India
$13,163,870
$4,368,435
$2,896,876
$2,644,681
$2,376,984
$2,248,091
$1,850,961
$1,271,593
$1,224,676
$1,067,472
$986,940
$911,813
77%
34.8%
-6.4%
52.4%
120.7%
64.8%
69.3%
68.7%
75.4%
110.9%
65.6%
280.0%
98.1%
52%
Emerging Markets in a Global Economy:
Percent of 2000 & 2007 Revenue Outside U.S.
YUM Brands 34.5% (50.1%)
Ford 30.4% (53.1%)
Boeing 34.3% (40.8%)
Intel 58.8% (84.3%)
Coca Cola 61.0% (73.8%)
Corning (70.7%)
Emerson Electric 40% (51.6%)
Accenture (60.5%)
Microsoft (38.7%)
IBM 57.9% (57.9%)
Motorola 52.5% (49.4%)
JNJ 38.2% (47.1%)
John Deere 25.1% (34.6%)
Colgate 69.4% (80.3%)
Nike 50.3% (62.6%)
Campbell Soup (31.0%)
Molson Coors (55.4%)
3M Corporation (61.4)
Employees (1,000s)
U.S. Multinational Employment 1982-2005
35,000
33,000
31,000
29,000
27,000
25,000
23,000
21,000
19,000
17,000
15,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
US Multinational Employment
Affiliate Employment
Percent of Multinational Corporation Jobs
Employed by U.S. Parent Company
80.0%
78.0%
76.0%
74.0%
72.0%
70.0%
68.0%
66.0%
64.0%
US Jobs as a % of MNC Jobs
Subsidiaries of Emerson Electric Company
AIH Inc.
(Delaware)
Alco Controls S.A
(Mexico)
Artesyn Technologies Inc.
(Florida)
Astec International Holdings
(UK & China)
Branson Ultrasonic S.A.
(Switzerland)
Daniel Industries Inc.
(Delaware)
EECO, Inc.
(Delaware)
Emerson Capital Corp
(Canada)
Emerson Electric Nederland BV (Netherlands)
Bristol Inc.
(Australia)
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Into the U.S. and Abroad 1982-2006
Billions of Dollars
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
FDI Abroad
FDI Inward
Where Does U.S. MNC $$$ Go (2006)?
#1 United Kingdom
$364,084 Finance, Other Services
#2 Netherlands
$215,715 Holding Cos/Finance
#3 Australia
$122,587 Holding Companies
#4 Bermuda
$108,462 Finance/Holding Cos
#5 Germany
$99,253
Holding Cos/Wholesale
#6 Japan
$91,769
Finance/Wholesale
#7 Switzerland
$90,085
Holding Cos/Wholesale
#8 Mexico
$84,699
Manufacturing/Finance
#9 Ireland
$83,615
Chemicals/Information
#20 China
$22,228
Manufacturing/Wholesale
Texas Exports 2007
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Chemicals Manufacturing
$34.9 bil
20.8%
Computer/Electronics
$33.7 bil
20.0%
Industrial Machinery
$24.8 bil
14.7%
Transportation Equipment
$16.3 bil
9.7%
Petroleum Products
$14.7 bil
8.8%
Electrical Components
$6.7 bil
4.0%
Primary Metal Manufacturing
$5.8 bil
3.5%
Fabricated Metals
$5.4 bil
3.2%
Agricultural Products
$4.6 bil
2.7%
Food & Kindred Prod
$3.7 bil
2.2%
Plastic & Rubber Prod
$3.4 bil
2.0%
Misc. Manufactured Commodities $2.8 bil
1.7%
Oil & Gas Extraction
$1.8 bil
1.1%
**94.5 percent of Texas Exports**
How Does Globalization and Free Trade
Affect U.S. Industry?
“…Global markets expand the scope for
specialization. We do what we do best and
trade for the rest.” Dallas FRB
So, what does the U.S. do best?
How does specialization affect job
growth, business practices and
educational preparation?
What has Education been doing?
Educational Practices and
Priorities
Employer Expectations and Education 1950
“Rules and SOP determined who was to do what, and how.
Most people were not supposed to think for themselves
except in the most narrow of parameters. Original
thought could imperil the entire plan.”
Robert Reich Supercapitalism
“Our schools, in every important respect, are very much as
we created them at the beginning of the 20th century,
when the aim was to build a mass education system that
could provide basic literacy for a nation of factory
workers, shopkeepers, and (low-tech) farming.”
Tough Choices or Tough Times
Employer Expectations in the 21st century
“Firms that succeed in this [global economy] will
constantly be looking for ways to shed their routine work,
either by automating it or outsourcing it. They will be
constantly preoccupied with the search for competent and
highly creative people…”
“Creativity, innovation, and flexibility will not be the
special province of an elite. It will be demanded of
virtually everyone who is making a decent living, from
graphic artists to assembly line workers, from insurance
brokers to home builders.”
Tough Choices or Tough Times
To an Educator a “demand” program is
one that has high enrollments
To an Employer a “demand”
occupation is one where there is a
shortage of workers
Show Workplace Basics
Texas Educational Equilibrium
• TX 2006 University Grads • TX Associates Degree
Graduates 2006
2006 by Degree
131,007 Bachelor’s
28,312 Graduate Degree
159,319 All Grads
• Annual AVG Openings
for Jobs Requiring a
Bachelor’s Degree or
More
98,431
57,251 Total Graduates
Less 18,955 General Studies
38,296 Market Ready
• Annual AVG Openings
for Jobs Requiring an
Associate’s Degree or
Postsecondary Award
40,894
Texas Occupational Imbalances
More Openings than Grads
1. Registered Nurses
2. Elementary Teachers
3. Computer Systems
Analysts
4. Software Engineers
5. Clergy
6. Health Services Mgrs.
7. Pharmacists
8. Medical Lab Technician
9. Training & Development
More Grads than Openings
1. Historians & Archivists
2. Accountants/Auditors
3. Graphic Designers
4. Clinical Psychologists
5. Journalists
6. Art Directors
7. Advertising Executives
8. Film & Video Editors
9. Archeologists
Student Career Interests
30,868 Inquiries January 2004-January 2006
1. Doctor, all specialties (2,064)
2. Lawyer (1,816)
3. Teacher K-12 (1,744)
4. Athletes & Coaches (1,238)
5. Law enforcement (1,193)
6. Registered Nurses (1,100)
7. Veterinarians (1,093)
8. Singers/Entertainers (827)
9. Cosmetology/Hairdresser(759)
10. Actors & Directors (506)
11. Architects
12. Biological scientist
13. Auto mechanics
14. Photographers
15. Designers
16. Computer programmer
17. Fire fighters
18. Computer engineers
19. Artists
20. Psychologists
Top 15 Fall 2007 Public University Enrollment
College Major
Unknown/Undeclared
Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other
Business Administration, Management and Operations
Biology, General
Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities
Psychology, General
Nursing
Business/Commerce, General
Health and Physical Education/Fitness
Accounting and Related Services
Criminal Justice and Corrections
English Language and Literature, General
History
Electrical, Electronics and Communications Engineering
Educational Administration and Supervision
Students
36,528
32,019
26,378
23,880
18,896
16,961
15,519
13,863
13,778
12,854
10,660
8,492
8,355
8,087
7,924
Top 15 Fall 2005-2006 Public University Graduates
Multi- / Interdisciplinary Studies, Other
8,043
Quarterly
Earnings
$8,665
Psychology, General
4,364
$5,989
Business Administration, Management
Biology, General
Finance and Financial Management Services
Nursing
Marketing
Health and Physical Education/Fitness
Accounting and Related Services
Criminal Justice and Corrections
English Language and Literature
Political Science and Government
History, General
Liberal Arts and Sciences
Sociology
4,061
3,745
3,130
3,013
2,900
2,816
2,401
2,247
2,210
2,098
1,829
1,586
1,441
$9,042
$5,859
$9,552
$13,898
$8,091
$6,930
$9,107
$6,851
$6,520
$6,367
$6,400
$8,283
$6,395
College Major
Grads
Fall 2006 graduate seed records were determined by THECB ($8,126 avg. all CIPs)
Highest Paying Majors 1 Year Post-Graduation:
Bachelors & Associates Degrees Only
College Major
Exit Level
Annual Pay
1. Health Professions/Clinical Sciences
BA
$47,306
2. Engineering
BA
$45,278
3. Health Professions/Clinical Sciences
AAS
$44,230
4. Construction Trades
AAS
$40,120
5. Engineering Technologies/Technicians
BA
$39,677
6. Science Technologies/ Technicians
AAS
$37,968
7. Architectural & Related Services
AAS
$36,737
8. Precision Production
AAS
$34,167
9. Computer & Information Sciences
BA
$33,276
10. Business, Mgmt. & Marketing
BA
$30,851
15. Liberal Arts
BA
$27,415
**Avg. earnings for entire graduating cohort, not for individual graduates
Texas Economic Signposts to Monitor
1. TX economy is better than, but still mirrors the U.S.
Texas is not immune from the same forces
2. Ike lives on. Clean-up costs and job loss still unknown
3. TX economy has been buoyed by oil & gas industries
Lower oil prices will slow/reverse job growth. Upside
is that the consumer benefits by lower gas prices
4. Manufacturing will continue to shed jobs, globally,
due to declining consumer demand, M&A, technology
5. Credit is the lifeblood. TX banks do better but credit
still a problem affecting home builders, auto supply
chain, credit institutions, commercial construction
6. Defense spending likely to moderate, stunting growth
Texas Economic Signposts to Monitor
7. TX real estate market better than U.S. but still a
problem. Likely to cool further, lower property values
8. Job loss lags economic declines. Unemployment will
continue to climb, will stay below U.S. averages
9. Higher Urates will strain government services. Lower
property values and declining sales taxes will decrease
tax revenues and affect local government budgets
10. Ripple effects of slower retail sales, less construction
and job loss will impact the service sector. Health care,
education jobs will endure.
11. Stronger dollar & slumping global economies will
slow U.S. exports, bad for larger exporting states.
There is much more to
tell, but this story is over!
Thank you