Transcript The Realm of Possibility

Thinking Like A System
Kevin Palmer
The Center for Sustainable Solutions
The University
4 January 2007
Introduction
What is the greatest challenge
facing humankind?
How would you solve it?
Overview
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The issue
The argument
It’s the system
Thinking in systems
Amazing examples
Not just theory
Can we do it?
The Issue
We’re at zero balance on earths – we’ve only got
one, no spares.
This has Consequences for the
Global…
• Economy
• Community, and
• Environment
…Simultaneously
Economists’ view
Well being
Human Survival
Goods & Services
Raw Materials
Natural Resources
The Argument
No matter what happens now,
future technology and invention
will save us
The Answer
YES!
Innovation and technology have
always been our edge to solving
hard problems…
But it takes understanding of the
system and investment to
develop a sustainable future
The Trick
Is knowing:
• Which challenges can be
overcome with technology
• When will we know when a
technology is ready
• How will we change systems to
accommodate new technology
The Other Trick
Is understanding that new technologies don’t
just happen. It takes:
• Changes in mindset and problem-solving
approaches
• A willingness to use future investments to
obtain superior technologies
• Coordination with the markets we create
and dominate
• Balance to enhance economy, quality of life
and environment
Vision
It begins with the vision to
understand that things can and
should get better for the next
generation.
We have always had visionaries who
could see the future and set the
world toward change
It’s the System
• Sustainable System Conditions
• Technologies
• Approaches
Choosing a Framework
• Derived from fundamental scientific
principles
• Simplifies the complexity of
systemic (environmental) issues
• Provides a framework for planning
and action
• Uses a “systems” perspective
The Rules of This System
Closed with respect
to matter
Open with respect
to energy
Basic Science – All Scientists Agree
• Matter and energy do not disappear
• Matter and energy tend to break
down or disperse
• We consume the order, structure,
and quality of matter
• Photosynthesis is the major process
by which order is produced
The Way Nature Works
In cyclical natural systems, waste does not exist.
Waste = Food.
Step 1 - bauxite is
mined in Australia
Step 2 - bauxite is
trucked to plant for
chemical processing
1 ton ore yields up to
1/2 of Aluminum Oxide
Step 3 - shipped to
Norway for
processing
Step 4 - oxide sits at
smelter site for up to
2 months
Step 5 - 2-hour
smelting reduces 1/2
of oxide into 1/4 ton
of metal
Step 6 - metal ingot
cured and shipped to
Germany to be rolled
Step 11 - can is
lacquered and
coated inside
Step 7 - ingot is
heated to 900F and
rolled into coil
Step 12 - cans are
palletized, stored,
and shipped
Step 8 - coil is
stored and cold
rolled into sheet
Step 14 - bottler
cleans and fills with
product
Step 9 - sheet metal
is shipped to England
punched and formed
into cans
Step 15 - cans are
packed in
promotional boxes
palletized and
shipped to retailer
Step 10 - can is
washed, dried,
primed and painted
Step 16 - Can is purchased, contents
consumed within a few minutes and
is thrown away
Material Flows
In cyclical natural systems, waste does not exist. Waste = Food.
Linear Industrial Processes: Waste is created faster than it can be
reconstituted to quality resources. Take-make-waste
6% Product 80% of products
Raw
Manufacturing
discarded after
Materials
Process
94% Waste
single use
(Source: NAE / Factor 4 p. xx, 1997)
It is estimated that 99% of the original materials used in the
production of, or contained in, the goods made in the US become waste
within 6 weeks of sale.
(Attributed to Paul Hawken, Factor 4, 1997)
System Condition 1
In a sustainable society,
nature is not subject to
systematically increasing:
… concentrations of
substances extracted from
the Earth’s crust.
What does this mean?
Who’s got an example?
System Condition 1
In a sustainable society, nature is
not subject to systematically
increasing concentrations of
substances extracted from the
Earth’s crust.
This means substituting certain
minerals that are scarce in
nature with others that are more
abundant, using all mined
materials efficiently by reusing
them in closed loops, and
systematically reducing
dependence on fossil fuels.
Telling Indicators
• In 2000, globally, mines extracted
900M tons of metal and produced
6B tons of waste ore.
• Projected US clean-up costs for
mines is up to $24B
• Worldwide, mining provides 1% of
the jobs worldwide and is
responsible for 5% of the workrelated deaths (14,000/year)
System Condition 2
In a sustainable society, nature
is not subject to systematically
increasing:
…concentrations of substances
produced by society.
What does this mean?
Who’s got an example?
System Condition 2
In a sustainable society, nature
is not subject to systematically
Increasing concentrations of
substances produced by society.
This means systematically
reducing dependence on synthetic
compounds known, or suspected to
be, harmful to living systems.
Telling Indicators
The cost for clean-up of synthetic organic
chemicals from all sources in the US released to
the environment – about $87B from 1981 – 2010 –
This does not include mining or nuclear waste or
any future materials to be regulated
Source: EPA
System Condition 3
In a sustainable society,
nature is not subject to
increasing:
… degradation by physical
means.
What does this mean?
Who’s got an example?
System Condition 3
In a sustainable society, nature
is not subject to increasing
degradation by physical means.
This means that the productive
mechanisms of nature are not
diminished in quality or
quantity, and we must not
harvest nature beyond its
capacity to regenerate.
Telling Indicator - Frontier Forests
8,000 Years Ago
Source: World Resources 2000-2001
Telling Indicator - Frontier Forests
Today
Source: World Resources 2000-2001
Why are Forests Important?
• Biodiversity – Habitat for >65% of all species
on Earth
• Carbon – >80% of Earth’s carbon
• Ecosystem goods & services value - >$5
trillion/year in US
• Cultural value – Supports >60 million people
world-wide
• Economic value – US wood products >$400
billion to global economy or approximately 2%
of global GDP.
System Condition 4
In a sustainable society:
Basic needs are met
worldwide.
What does this mean?
Who’s got an example?
System Condition 4
In a sustainable society,
basic needs are met
worldwide.
This means using
resources efficiently,
fairly and responsibly, so
that the needs of people
on whom we have an
impact (near and
remote), and the future
needs of people not yet
born, stand the best
chance of being met.
Telling Indicators
Afghanistan facts:
• 23.8 million  44 million by 2025
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3.88% population growth rate, 3rd in the world
Life expectancy - 43.1 years
Median age – 18 years
Infant mortality rate -147/1000 or 14.7% vs. <0.7% in US
• 13% access to safe drinking water
– 39L/day/person (minimum std is 50 Ldp)
• 12% access to sanitation - 21% in 1970
• Less than 3% forest lands
• Percent arable lands – 12% including forests
– Food production dropped by 40% 1995 to 2000
Source: Military Science of Environmental Security Brief by COL Chris King, PhD, USMA
Thinking Like a System –
Bio-mass Energy Production
Electricity
Generation
Direct Use
Biomass
Processing
Heat to Facilities
Storage
Additional Uses
Bio-mass Energy to
Future Energy
Adaptability?
Other H2 Sources?
Other Electricity Sources?
Direct Solar, Wind?
Types?
Agricultural?
Municipal?
Food Service?
Technology?
Gasification?
Purification?
Composting?
Transmission?
Distribution?
Infrastructure?
Distribution?
Regional Grid?
Distributed?
Mini-Grid?
Method?
Fuel Cell?
Micro-Turbines?
Combustion?
Electricity
Generation
Direct Use
Biomass
Processing
Heat to Facilities
Storage
Sources?
Local?
Regional?
Location?
Distributed?
Regional?
Additional Uses
Technology?
Infrastructure?
Location?
• What does the current distribution
system look like?
• What is the current power generation
capability?
• What new technology is needed?
• What investments should we make now
help in meeting the future?
• Is the opportunity a transition
technology?
• Where and how will we use it?
Give it Context
How does this
opportunity apply to
the evolution of
secure power
generation?
Electricity
Generation
Direct Use
Biomass
Processing
Heat to Facilities
Storage
Additional Uses
What is the
Relationship to Local
Agriculture, Regional
Development,
Security, and Quality
of Life?
• Could a new, high energy
yield crop become more
profitable?
• Could farmers become more
profitable and help keep lands out
of development?
• Can we help stimulate wealth and
create a better local relationships?
• Are other side products or
materials developed or used that
support other markets?
• Who can partner with farmers for
space for system?
Electricity
Generation
Direct Use
Biomass
Processing
Heat to Facilities
Storage
Additional Uses
What is the
relationship between
this energy source
and the community?
• How can local energy participate?
• Can local manufacturers support
development of the requisite new
technology?
• Can our installation tip local energy
markets or move toward renewables?
• Can this option result in new
industry/wealth?
• Can local industry benefit?
Electricity
Generation
Direct Use
Biomass
Processing
Heat to Facilities
Storage
Additional Uses
Who might want to
partner?
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Universities and researchers
System manufacturers/developers
Local utilities
Agriculture
Commerce department
Business development
Community and political leaders
Others
Electricity
Generation
Direct Use
Biomass
Processing
Heat to Facilities
Storage
Additional Uses
Amazing Examples
Newest Hybrid Introductions
Oshkosh
hybrid refuse
truck
Peterbilt Class
7 hybrid utility
truck
IC/Enova
hybrid shuttle
bus
Freightliner
Class 6/7
hybrid utility
truck
ISE hybrid
cutaway
shuttle bus
Candle Wax Rocket Fuel
• Paraffin-based fuel
• By-products are CO2, and water,
not toxic materials
• Less money because it’s
cheaper to produce, and
less harmful to the
environment and workers.
How would you design a sewage plant if
you had to live downwind?
Living Machines™ turn sewage
into clean water and flowers.
Dr. John Todd
Innovative Energy Systems
Ascending-Descending Strategy
Natural Environment
hydrogen via electrolysis
Solar
Thermal
Natural Gas/
Bio gas
Solar
PV
Lighting,
Computers
Fuel Cell
Heat Recovery
Steam Generator
rejected heat
rejected heat
Electrical
Energy
Steam Turbine
chilled water
rejected heat
Absorption
regen. hot water
rejected heat
Boiler
Daylighting/
natural ventilation
Chilled Water
Cooling
Desiccant
Cooling
Domestic Hot Water/
Water mullion
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Geothermal Environment
Ford Dearborne Plant
Is investing an additional $8M in a green roof,
porous pavement for parking lot (reduced
cost), and a constructed wetland for
landscaping.
Savings will include elimination of a $40M
storm water management system and $6M
budgeted for landscaping.
Build it Better - BedZED
New Materials - Aerogel
Insulation
• Super lightweight solid of 96% air
• Clear Windows with the energy
efficiency of a solid wall
• Reduces noise twice as much as a
double pane window
Better Building Materials
Agri-Board
• Produced from
compressed wheat or
rice straw
• 2x as energy efficient
• 2X Fire resistant
• Stronger
• Pest resistant
• Reduced lumber
framing by up to 90%
Solar Energy from the Moon
One Solution – Look to Nature
• Spider Web (thread strength)
• Slug mucous (adhesive)
• Abalone Shell (protective
shell)
• Barnacle (adhesives)
• Lotus flower (waterproofing)
• Geckos (small hairs as glue)
• Pond Scum – 95% efficient in photosynthesis
Working with Community
Towards Sustainability
New York City, the State, and Catskills
Watershed
• New York City has some of the cleanest drinking water in
the world
• The water source is the Catskill Mountain Watershed
(1,600 sq mi)
• In 1990 EPA mandated that all public supplies of surface
water be filtered for microbes
• spend $4-$6 billion dollars to meet these mandates
Approach
• NYC worked with upstate communities on land use,
development planning, and agricultural best
management practices that would improve water
quality.
• Communities and NYC purchased select properties to be
held undeveloped and in public trust.
• NYC spent $550 million to improve their water system,
upgrade aging sewage treatment plants, and replace
failing septic systems in the Catskill watershed area
• Another $278 million has been spent for conservation
easements and partnerships to protect forest lands
• The state of New York is also contributing funds to these
programs
Results
Water quality improved to the point
where the investment in system
upgrades for systems within
watershed was unnecessary
Cost Avoided = $6 Billion
Open Space preserved = 258,716 acres
Total investment = $833 M
Not Just Theory
2020 Sustainability Goals
Zero Waste: includes an expanded
concept of what constitutes waste in Nike’s
system
Zero Toxic Substances: includes
substances known or suspected to be
harmful to human health or the health of
biological systems
Closing the loop: includes product and
process design to move toward closed loop
processes.
Sustainable Growth and Profitability:
includes developing new partnerships,
business models, and influencing change
NIKE
• System Condition 1
– Down-cycling now; recycle soon
– Substituting materials (leather tanning without heavy
metals)
• System Condition 2
– PVC (in everything and is now virtually completely
out)
– Organic cotton (pesticide and #4 worker welfare)
• System Condition 3
– Boxes (lighter, stronger)
• System Condition 4
– Established a code of conduct, working with NGOs and
subcontracted factories and workers, micro loans,
education, health care, working in homes and villages
not in the city
Military Sphere of Influence – 97% Rule
Army Power Projection
Platforms
Other Army
Installations
Army Support Facilities
Navy Bases
Marine Bases
Air Force Bases
Can we do it?
Can we change and make it
better for our species in the
future?
No Excuses
The GDP of the United States is
$10Trillion/yr
Purchases of the Federal Government
alone account for 17% of the total
GDP
That’s $1,700,000,000,000
The Question
Do we want to leave the world a
better place for them?
Unless…
“Someone like you
cares a whole awful lot
Nothing is going to get better
It’s not…”
The Lorax
by Dr. Seuss