Transcript MODULE 1: CONCEPTS

MODULE 1: CONCEPTS
 ECONOMIC METHODOLOGY & THE ECONOMISING PROBLEM
 MEASUREMENT - GDP, UNEMPLOYMENT & INFLATION
Economic Methodology & the Economising Problem
Economics: Foundations and Models - Chapter 1
Choices and Trade-Offs in the Market - Chapter 2
Learning Objectives:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Discuss the following important economic ideas: people are rational; people
respond to incentives; optimal decisions are made at the margin.
Understand the issues of scarcity and trade-offs, and how the market makes
decisions on these issues.
Understand the role of economics in modern analysis.
Distinguish between microeconomics and macroeconomics.
Use a production possibility frontier to analyse opportunity costs and tradeoffs.
Understand the basics of trade.
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Economics
• A social science concerned with the allocation of
scarce/limited resources between unlimited and often
competing needs and wants.
– Scarcity: The situation in which unlimited wants exceed
the limited resources available to fulfill them.
– Trade-off: The idea that because of scarcity, producing
more of one good or service means producing less of
another good or service.
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Check Your Understanding
What does the adage ‘There is no such thing as a free lunch’
mean?
a. To get something we like, we usually have to give up
another thing we like.
b. Even people on welfare have to pay for food these days.
c. The cost of living is always increasing.
d. All costs are measured in dollars.
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Resource Categories
• Resources are divided into 4 main categories.
– Land: all natural resources.
– Labour: Requires a fundamentally scarce resource - TIME.
– Capital:
• Human capital: knowledge & skills that people develop
• Physical Capital: buildings, machinery tools, etc.
– Enterprise or entrepreneurial ability
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Check Your Understanding
We study economics because of
a. resources.
b. money.
c. scarcity.
d. economists have convinced universities it is a necessary
field of study.
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Economics and Individual Decisions
Three ideas are primary throughout the course:
1. People (economic agents) are rational.
2. People (economic agents) respond to economic
incentives.
3. Optimal decisions are made at the margin.
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Check Your Understanding
Economists understand that people respond to:
a. the wishes of policymakers.
b. Incentives.
c. threats more than rewards.
d. tax breaks, but not tax hikes.
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Economic Models
•
Economics deals with generalities/statements about
regularities, concerning economic behaviour.
•
Models are simplified representations of the real world.
•
Ceteris Paribus
– A hypothesis in an economic model: A statement about an
economic variable that may be either correct or incorrect.
– Economic variable: Something measurable that relates to
resources that can have different values.
– In testing hypotheses, economists distinguish between
correlation and causality.
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Check Your Understanding
Economic models are usually composed of:
a. plastic.
b. beautiful people.
c. assumptions only.
d. diagrams and equations.
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Positive versus Normative
• Positive: Claims that attempt to describe the world as it is.
Statements of facts. Can be tested empirically.
• Normative: Claims that attempt to prescribe how the
world should be. Opinions. Cannot be tested empirically.
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Check Your Understanding
Which of the following is a positive economic statement?
a. The government should close income tax
loopholes
that enable people to avoid paying tax.
b. We should redistribute income to reduce poverty.
c. Everyone should live at the same standard of living.
d. If the price of petrol rises, a smaller quantity of it will be
bought.
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Macroeconomics versus Microeconomics
• Microeconomics: The study of how individuals make
decisions. Microeconomics considers how households and
firms make choices, how they interact in markets, and how
the government attempts to influence their choices.
• Macroeconomics: Enables us to better understand the
structure and behavior of the entire economy (regional,
national or global) and to consider issues associated with
measuring performance. Macroeconomics is the study of
the economy as a whole and includes topics such as
inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.
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Check Your Understanding
State whether the following issues are
microeconomic or macroeconomic.
a.The overall unemployment rate
b.A tax that affects workers in the automobile industry.
c.The inflation rate
d.Prices of electronic goods
e.Real GDP
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Scarcity and Trade-offs
1.
2.
3.
What to produce
How to produce it
Who will receive the products
WHO DECIDES?
Laissezfaire/Market
Economy
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Economy
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Check Your Understanding
A market economy rewards people according to:
a. their need for goods and services.
b. how willing they are to work.
c. their ability to produce things of cultural importance.
d. their ability to produce things that other people are
willing to pay for.
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Resource
Market
Financial
Markets
Borrowing & Lending
Private and Public
Firm
Household
Product
Market
Government
External
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Production Possibilities Frontier
• How to achieve the greatest possible satisfaction of
society’s material wants given scarce resources?
– Full employment
– Full production
• Allocative efficiency
• Productive efficiency
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Check Your Understanding
Which of the following results in production occurring at the
lowest possible cost?
a. Productive efficiency
b. Allocative efficiency
c. Dynamic efficiency
d. All of these options are correct.
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Production Possibilities Frontier
Represents the maximum possible combinations of goods & services
that can be produced with a given quantity of factors of production and
given technology.
butter
10 A
W
Unattainable
U
Attainable but not desirable
E
4
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Check Your Understanding
An "increase in efficiency" suggests that an economy:
a. Has moved from a point outside of, to a point on, its
production possibilities curve.
b. Has decided to produce more consumer goods and fewer
capital goods.
c. Is able to get less output from a given amount of input.
d. Is able to get more output from a given amount of input.
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Opportunity Cost
The opportunity cost of any activity is the
highest-valued alternative that must be
given up to engage in the activity under
consideration.
butter
10
A
9
Any movement along the
PPF involves the concept of
opportunity cost.
Can only obtain more of one
good by having less of the
other.
B
C
7
D
4
E
1
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3
4
guns
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Check Your Understanding
In economics, the cost of something is:
a.the out-of-pocket expense of obtaining it.
b.what you give up to get it.
c.always measured in units of time.
d.always higher than people think.
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Increasing & Constant Opportunity Costs
butter
10
9
pastries
10 A
A
B
B
8
C
7
6
D
4
D
4
C
E
2
E
1
2
3
4
guns
1
2
3
4
cakes
Scarce resources are equally
Scarce resources are not
suitable in all productive
equally suitable in all
activities.
productive activities.
Economic resources are
Economic resources are not
completely adaptable to
completely adaptable to
alternative uses.
alternative uses.
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Check Your Understanding
Increasing opportunity costs will lead to the
production possibility frontier being
a. bowed inward from the origin.
b. bowed outward from the origin.
c. a negatively sloped straight line.
d. a positively sloped straight line.
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Check Your Understanding
Assume a firm can produce a combination of 60
units of X together with 80 units of Y but to produce
70 units of X, the firm can only produce 60 units of Y.
What is the opportunity cost to produce 10 more
units of X?
a. Two units of Y
b. 10 units of X
c. One-half a unit of X
d. 20 units of Y
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• Trade-offs and disaster relief
More funds for one
disaster relief means
less funds for other
charities.
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Economic Growth
computers
(good for the future)
• Over time PPF can move outwards.
• Achieved through economic growth.
• The following will push the PPF out:
– Capital accumulation.
– Technological progress.
– Increased resources
pizzas (good for the present)
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Check Your Understanding
Which of the following would shift the country's
production possibility frontier inward?
a. An increase in the unemployment rate
b. Discovering a cheap way to convert sunshine into
electricity
c. Producing more capital equipment
d. A law requiring workers to retire at age 50
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Check Your Understanding
Production possibilities (alternatives)
Capital goods
Consumer goods
A B C D E F
5 4 3 2 1 0
0 5 9 12 14 15
Refer to the above table. As compared to production
alternative D, the choice of alternative C would:
a. Tend to generate a more rapid growth rate.
b. Be unattainable.
c. Entail unemployment.
d. Tend to generate a slower growth rate.
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Check Your Understanding
Here is a production possibilities table for watches and bags in
Consumer Land.
Type of product
Watches (in millions)
Bags (in millions)
a.
b.
Production Alternatives
A
B
C
D
10
9
7
4
0
5
10
15
E
0
20
Draw a PPF that corresponds with the data in the table.
Why must Consumer Land sacrifice successively larger
amounts of watches to acquire more bags. What type of
opportunity costs is it facing? ?
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Check Your Understanding
c.
d.
e.
f.
If the economy is currently at production alternative D:
i. What is the opportunity cost of five million more bags?
ii. What is the opportunity cost of three million more watches?
Where would the economy be operating if a recession in
Consumer Land resulted in 2 million people losing their jobs?
If the production possibilities frontier for Consumer Land was a
straight line, what would it indicate about the country’s
opportunity costs? What does this indicate regarding resources?
Suppose improvement occurs in the technology of producing
watches but not in the production of bags. Illustrate the impact on
the original production possibilities frontier.
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Trade
We can use the production possibility frontier and the
concept of opportunity cost to explain the economic gains
from specialisation and trade. (ECON1086: International Trade
covers the important topic of international trade in more
detail).
Trade: the act of buying or selling a good or service in a
market.
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PPF and International Trade
• Mercantilism held that countries would grow wealthy by
accumulating gold and silver. They would do so by exporting as
much as possible, and importing as little as possible.
• Adam Smith put forward the idea that the wealth of a nation
depends on the incomes of the people in the country and what
they are able to consume, not on the gold and silver held by the
monarchs and the nobles.
• According to Smith, imports rather than exports are the purpose
of trade. Imports of goods and services rather than the
accumulation of gold and silver improve people’s standard of
living.
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Trade
Absolute and comparative advantage.
– Absolute advantage: The ability of an individual, firm or
country to produce more of a good or service than
competitors using the same amount of resources.
– Comparative advantage: The ability of an individual, firm or
country to produce a good or service at a lower opportunity
cost than other producers.
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The Benefits of International Trade
• David Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage (developed
in 1817) showed how a country could improve the income of
its citizens by allowing them to trade with people in other
countries.
• International trade allows nations to increase the productivity
of their resources through specialisation and thereby to
realise a higher standard of living than is possible in the
absence of trade.
• Trade enables a country and the world to produce and
consume more than would be possible without trade.
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Trade
• The basis for trade is comparative advantage not absolute
advantage.
• Individuals, firms or countries are better off if they
specialise in producing goods and services for which they
have a comparative advantage and obtain other desirable
goods and services by trading.
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Check Your Understanding
The basic principle underlying free trade between nations is
a.Absolute advantage
b.Comparative advantage
c.Mercantilism
d.Productivity growth
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Review Your Understanding
Daniel decides to spend an hour swimming rather than
working at $6 per hour. His trade-off is:
a. nothing, because he enjoys swimming more than working.
b. the increase in skill he obtains from swimming for that
hour.
c. the $6 he could have earned.
d. nothing, because he spent $6 for admission into the
sports complex to swim.
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Review Your Understanding
When society requires that firms reduce pollution:
a. there is no trade-off, since everyone benefits from
reduced pollution.
b. there is no trade-off for society as a whole, since the
cost of reducing pollution falls only on the firms
affected by the requirements.
c. there is a trade-off only if some firms are forced to
close.
d. there is a trade-off to the firms’ owners, workers and
customers.
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Review Your Understanding
When the government prevents prices from
adjusting naturally to supply and demand:
a. it stabilises the economy.
b. it adversely affects the allocation of resources.
c. the improvement in equity justifies the reduction in
efficiency.
d. the reduced uncertainty associated with fixed prices
is worth more than the cost in lower efficiency.
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Review Your Understanding
What is the basic cause of scarcity?
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Review Your Understanding
Opportunity cost is best defined as
a. the cost to producers that results from a failed
investment opportunity.
b. the additional cost of producing one more unit of
output.
c. the highest valued alterative that we forego when we
make a choice or decision.
d. the additional cost of purchasing one more unit of a
good.
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Review Your Understanding
If an economy had production problems which led to
inefficiency, but then solved these problems and
increased economic efficiency, how would this be
shown on a production possibility frontier?
a. The slope of the production possibility frontier would
become more elastic.
b. There would be a movement from a point inside the
frontier to a point closer to or on the frontier.
c. The slope of the production possibility frontier would
become more inelastic.
d. The production possibility frontier would shift
outwards.
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Review Your Understanding
The following Production Possibilities Frontier shows the maximum
possible combinations of food and clothing that can be produced in a
given time period in a particular country.
food
clothing
a. If the country moves upward along the curve and produces more
food, does this involve increasing opportunity costs? Why/Why not?
b. Under what circumstances would the PPF be a straight line and what
type of opportunity costs would exist?
c. Under what circumstances would the PPF be bowed out from the
origin and what type of opportunity costs would exist?
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Review Your Understanding
Production possibilities
(alternatives)
Capital goods
Consumer goods
A
B
C
D
E
F
5
0
4
5
3
9
2 1 0
12 14 15
Given the above production possibilities table for an economy,
what would be the benefit of producing at production
alternative C as compared to production alternative D?
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Review Your Understanding
Production possibilities
(alternatives)
Capital goods
Consumer goods
A
B
C
D
E
F
5
0
4
5
3
9
2
1
0
12 14 15
Refer to the above table. If the economy is producing at
production alternative C, what is the opportunity cost of the
tenth unit of consumer goods?
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Review Your Understanding
Refer to the above diagram. If the economy moves from point
C to point B, what is the opportunity cost of each additional
baseball?
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Measurement : GDP, Unemployment, Inflation
Measuring Total Production, Income and Economic Growth - Chapter 4
Economic Growth, The Financial System and Business Cycles – Chapter 5 (pp. 119-120)
Unemployment - Chapter 9 ( pp. 246-262)
Inflation - Chapter 10 (pp. 272-280)
Learning Objectives:
1.
Explain how total production in an economy is measured.
2.
Discuss whether GDP is a good measure of economic wellbeing.
3.
Discuss the difference between real and nominal variables.
4.
Understand how the economic growth rate is measured.
5.
Define the unemployment rate and the labour force participation rate, and understand how they
are calculated.
6.
Explain the economic costs of unemployment.
7.
Identify the different types of unemployment
8.
Define the price level and the inflation rate, and understand how they are calculated.
9.
Use price indexes to adjust for the effects of inflation.
10.
Distinguish between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate.
11.
Discuss the problems caused by inflation.
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GDP
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The total market value of all final
goods and services produced in the economy during a specific
period.
• Gross National Product (GNP): The total market value of all final
goods and services produced by residents of a country (eg.
Singaporean residents) during a specific period.
– GDP includes only the market value of final goods.
– Final good or service: A good or service purchased by a final user.
– Intermediate good or service: A good or service that is an input
into another good or service, such as a tyre on a truck.
– GDP includes only current production.
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Check Your Understanding
Gross Domestic Product is the total market value of
all
a. intermediate and final goods and services produced
in a time period within a country.
b. goods but not services produced in a time period
within a country.
c. final goods and services produced in a time period
within a country.
d. final goods and services produced in a time period by
citizens of a country, both within the country and by
its citizens working overseas.
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Methods to Measure GDP
Three alternative methods to measure GDP:
1. The Production or Value Added Method: The sum of the value
of all goods and services produced by industries in the economy
in a year minus the cost of goods and services used in
production – leaving the value added.
2. The Expenditure Method: The sum of the total expenditure on
goods and services by households, investors, government and
net exporters (exports minus imports).
3. The Income Method: The sum of the income generated by
resources used in the production of goods and services (includes
the sum of wages, salaries and supplements plus rent, interest,
profit and dividends).
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Resource
Market
Financial
Markets
Borrowing & Lending
Private and Public
Firm
Household
Value of Production = Value of Resources = Value of Income Generated = Expenditure Undertaken
Product
Market
Government
External
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Simple Relationships
RGDP = Y = AE = C + I + G + NX
For a closed economy we simply remove the external sector which makes our income
function:
Y = C+ I + G
We can re-arrange this to derive the investment function:
I=Y–C–G
Stotal = Sprivate + Spublic
Sprivate = Y + TR – C – T and Spublic = T – G – TR, hence
Stotal = (Y + TR – C – T) + (T – G – TR)
=Y–C–G
S=I
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Check Your Understanding
One bag of flour is sold for $1.50 to a bakery, which uses
the flour to bake bread that is sold for $4.00 to
consumers. A second bag of flour is sold to a consumer in
a grocery store for $2.00. Taking these three transactions
into account, what is the effect on GDP?
a. GDP increases by $1.50.
b. GDP increases by $3.50.
c. GDP increases by $6.00.
d. GDP increases by $7.50.
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Components of GDP
• Consumption: Spending by households on goods and
services, not including spending on new houses.
• Investment: Spending by firms on new factories, office
buildings, machinery (planned), and inventories (unplanned),
and spending by households on new houses.
• Government purchases: Spending by federal, state, and local
governments on goods and services.
• Net exports: The value of exports minus the value of imports.
GDP = C + I + G + NX
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Check Your Understanding
In the equation GDP = C + I + G + NX, the G
component refers to
a. the purchases of final goods and services by all
levels of government, excluding transfer payments.
b. government expenditures plus all transfer payments.
c. the taxes and expenditure of all levels of government.
d. government expenditures on transfer payments, such
as pensions and unemployment benefits.
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Issues in the Measurement of GDP: Shortcomings of
GDP as a measure of total production
GDP does not reflect total current production as
production from the following sources are not reflected in
its calculation:
– Household production: Goods and services people
produce for themselves.
– The black economy: Buying and selling of goods and
services that is concealed from the government to avoid
taxes or regulations or because the goods and services are
illegal.
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Does GDP measure what we want it to measure?
Shortcomings of GDP as a measure of wellbeing:
– The composition and distribution of GDP is not captured in
GDP measures.
– The value of leisure is not included in GDP.
– The level, quality of and access to health care is not measured
in GDP.
– GDP does not accurately reflect improvements in the quality of
products.
– GDP is not adjusted for pollution or other negative effects of
production.
– GDP does not reveal anything about social problems that also
impact on overall societal wellbeing.
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Nominal (Money/Current) GDP vs Real GDP
• Inflation or deflation complicates the comparison of figures
measuring GDP over time, because GDP is a price-times-quantity
figure.
• Nominal GDP could increase over time because of increased output,
increased prices or both.
• Suppose the economy had a money GDP of $1,000 in 2008, which
results from the production of 1,000 apples that sell at a price of $1
per apple. Would it be better off in the year 2009 with a money GDP
of $2,000?
– What would be your conclusion if you found out that the $2,000
GDP resulted from the production and sale of 1,000 apples at a
price of $2 per apple?
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Price and Quantities
Year
Price of
apples
2006
$1
2007
2008
Year
Qty. of
apples
Price of
burgers
Qty. of
burgers
100
$2
50
$2
150
$3
100
$3
200
$4
150
Calculating GDP using current prices
2006
2007
2008
Year
Calculating GDP using constant prices (base year 2006)
2006
2007
2008
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Real GDP versus Nominal GDP
Calculating Real GDP
– Real GDP (RGDP): The value of final goods and services evaluated at
base year prices.
– Nominal GDP: The value of final goods and services valuated at
current year prices.
– Nominal GDP can change over time due to changes in either price or
output. RGDP shows changes in output only.
– GDP statisticians select a base year and use this over a specified
period to measure RGDP in order to make meaningful comparisons
of GDP over time.
– A simple rule: RGDP equals base year prices times current year
quantities.
nominal GDP
RGDP 
100
price index
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Check Your Understanding
Suppose that a very simple economy produces three goods:
movies, burgers, and bikes. Suppose the quantities produced and
their corresponding prices for 2004 and 2009 are shown in the
following table:
2004
2009
Product
Quantity Price
Quantity Price
Movies
20
$6
30
$7
Burgers
100
$2
90
$2.50
Bikes
3
$1000 6
$1100
The base year is 2004. What is nominal GDP in 2009?
a. $7035
b. $3690
c. $6360
d. RMIT
$3320
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Marketing
Check Your Understanding
Given the following information, what can we say has
happened in the economy from 2008 and 2009?
Nominal GDP
Real GDP
2008
$10 000
$9 500
2009
$12 000
$10 500
a. The price level has remained constant.
b. The price level has risen.
c. The price level has fallen.
d. Not enough information is available to determine what
has happened to prices.
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Calculating Economic Growth
The Economic Growth Rate: the rate of change in real GDP
from one year to another.
Real GDP Current - Real GDP Previous
Economic Growth 
x 100
Real GDPPrevious
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Measuring Unemployment
• Unemployment rate: percentage of the labour force that
is unemployed.
Number Unemployed
Unemployment Rate 
 100
Labour Force
• Labour-force Participation rate: percentage of the adult
population in the labour force.
Labour Force
Labour - forceParticipation Rate 
100
Adult Population
• Labour force = No. of employed + No. of unemployed
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Types of Unemployment
• Frictional Unemployment
– Includes workers who are in the process of voluntarily
switching jobs, workers who are temporarily laid off because
of seasonality, and new entrants into the labour force.
Largely due to imperfect information.
• Structural Unemployment
– Unemployment due to fundamental changes in the kinds of
jobs that the economy offers. Workers may have
inappropriate skills.
• Cyclical unemployment
– Due to a deficiency in aggregate demand for goods and
services.
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Full Employment and the Natural Unemployment
Rate
• When cyclical unemployment is zero, there is full employment.
• Full employment is therefore achieved when real GDP is equal
to its long-run potential GDP.
• At full employment, there will inevitably be some structural and
frictional unemployment.
• The unemployment rate at full employment is termed the
natural rate of unemployment.
• The natural rate of unemployment is not forever fixed and will
vary as rates of frictional and structural unemployment change.
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Issues in the Measurement of Unemployment
• Discouraged workers: individuals who have given up
looking for work but would like to work.
• Underemployment: All part-time workers are classified as
employed. Yet many part-time employees may want to
work full-time. (Underemployment may also apply to
causal workers who work in excess of 1 hour per week and
are counted as employed even though they might like to
work more hours).
• Truthfulness issues
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Inflation
– Price level: a measure of the average prices of goods and
services in the economy.
– Inflation rate: The percentage increase in the price level
from one year to the next.
– Deflation: A decline in the general price level in the
economy.
 PI year 2  PI year 1 
  100
Inflation Rate  


PI
year 1


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Measuring Inflation
– Consumer Price Index (CPI): An average of the prices of
the goods and services purchased by the typical urban
family of 4 in an economy.
– The Market Basket: the Department of Statistics identifies:
–A typical or representative household.
–The goods and services purchased by the household (this is the
“market basket”).
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Consumer Price Index
• The CPI is the most commonly known price index and is based on
changes in the price of a given basket of consumption g&s.
Fixed basket of 4 apples and 2 burgers
Year
Price of apples
Price of burgers
2006
$1
$2
2007
$2
$3
2008
$3
$4
Year
Cost of basket
2006
2007
2008
Year
Consumer price index (2006 is the base year)
2006
2007
2008
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Inflation
Inflation rate calculated used the CPI:
2007:
2008:
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Check Your Understanding
Suppose an economy has only three goods and the typical
family purchases the amounts given in the following table.
If 2000 is the base year, then what is the CPI for 2008?
Product
Hair cuts
Backpacks
Tacos
a.
b.
c.
d.
Quantity
6
4
100
Price (2000)
$50
$25
$1.00
Price(2008)
$70
$30
$5.00
40.08
208
180
100
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Check Your Understanding
Suppose that the data in the following table reflects the
prices in the economy. What is the inflation rate in between
2008 and 2009?
Year
2008
2009
a.
b.
c.
d.
CPI
(1990=100)
175
180
4.6%
7.5%
5%
2.9%
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Issues in the Measurement of Inflation
– The CPI is the most widely used measure of inflation.
– Is the CPI accurate?
– Four sources of bias in the CPI may lead to its overstating
the inflation rate.
•
Substitution bias
•
Increase in quality bias
•
New product bias
•
Outlet bias
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Check Your Understanding
If consumers purchase fewer of those products that
increase most in price and more of those products
that decrease in price as compared to the CPI
basket, then
a. changes in the CPI understate the true rate of
inflation.
b. changes in the CPI are unrelated to the true rate of
inflation.
c. changes in the CPI accurately reflect the true rate of
inflation.
d. changes in the CPI overstate the true rate of inflation
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Other Measures of Inflation
• The GDP Deflator: GDP also allows us to calculate changes
in the price level over time. The GDP deflator is a measure
of the price level calculated by dividing nominal GDP by real
GDP and multiplying by 100.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI): an average of the prices
received by producers of goods and services at all stages of
the production process.
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Using Price Indexes to Adjust for the Effects of
Inflation
• The purchasing power of the dollar falls over time as prices
rise.
• Price indexes, such as the CPI, allow us to adjust for the
effects of inflation so we can compare dollar values over time.
• For example; we can find the 2008 purchasing power
equivalent of a $20,000 salary in 1980. We use the following
formula:
Value in 2008 dollars = Value in 1980 dollars
 CPI in 2008 

 
 CPI in 1980 
189 
=$ 20,000  

  $46,098
 82 
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Hyperinflation
• Extremely rapid increases in the general price level.
• In periods of hyperinflation, money loses value so rapidly,
that firms and households try to avoid holding it.
• Hyperinflation is often associated with political instability
and usually accompanied by recession.
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Real versus Nominal Interest Rates
– Nominal interest rate: The stated interest rate on a loan.
– Real interest rate: The nominal interest rate minus the
inflation rate.
– Deflation: A decline in the general price level in the
economy.
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Check Your Understanding
In the country of Hyrkania, the CPI in 2000 was 120 and the
CPI in 2001 was 132. Jake, a resident of Hyrkania, borrowed
money in 2000 and repaid the loan in 2001. If the nominal
interest rate on the loan was 12 percent, what was the real
interest rate?
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Review Your Understanding
Which of the following is a TRUE statement about
real and nominal GDP?
a. If nominal GDP increases from one year to the next,
we know that production of goods and services has
risen.
b. Increases in average prices do not affect the
calculation of nominal GDP.
c. If real GDP increases from one year to the next, we
know that production of goods and services has
risen.
d. Nominal GDP is a better measure than real GDP in
comparing changes in the production of goods and
service year after year.
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Review Your Understanding
Suppose that a very simple economy produces three goods:
movies, burgers, and bikes. Suppose the quantities produced and
their corresponding prices for 2004 and 2009 are shown in the
following table:
2004
2009
Product
Quantity Price
Quantity Price
Movies
20
$6
30
$7
Burgers
100
$2
90
$2.50
Bikes
3
$1000 6
$1100
What is real GDP in 2009, using 2004 as the base year?
a. $3690
b. $7035
c. $6360
d. RMIT
$3320
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Marketing
Review Your Understanding
In 1995, the Consumer Price Index was 118.5. In 1996, it was
120.3, and in 1997, it was 120.0.
Calculate the inflation rate in 1996 and 1997.
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Review Your Understanding
Using the following table, fill in the missing cells:
Nominal GDP GDP Deflator RGDP
($ billion)
1991
1992
1993
1994
361.1
391.4
441.7
632
RMIT University
Growth
Rate
Inflation
Rate
103.1
106.4
109.2
116.2
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86
Review Your Understanding
Suppose dishwashers are part of the market basket used to
compute the CPI.
Suppose also that the quality of dishwashers improves while
the price of dishwashers stays the same.
If the Department of Statistics is able to precisely adjust the
CPI for the improvement in quality, then, other things equal,
should the CPI increase, decrease or remain unchanged?
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Review Your Understanding
Andrew is offered a job in Adelaide, where the CPI is 80, and a
job in Melbourne, where the CPI is 125. Andrew's job offer in
Adelaide is for $42,000. How much does the Melbourne job
have to pay in order for the two salaries to represent about
the same purchasing power?
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MODULE 2: MARKETS
 THE PRICING MECHANISM
 THE PRODUCT MARKET
 THE LABOUR MARKET
 EXCHANGE RATE MARKET
 FINANCIAL MARKETS
 MONEY MARKET
The Pricing Mechanism
Where Prices Come From: The Interaction of Demand and Supply Chapter 3
Learning Objectives:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Understand the factors that influence the demand for goods and services.
Understand the factors that influence the supply of goods and services.
Explain how equilibrium in a market is reached and use a graph to illustrate
equilibrium.
Use demand and supply graphs to predict changes in prices and quantities.
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The Market for an Individual Good or Service
• The market is one method of producing and rationing
scarce goods and resources.
• A market is when a group of buyers and sellers of a
particular good or service interact.
• Supply and Demand refer to the behaviour of individual
householders (or consumers) and firms as they interact
with one another in the market.
• A competitive market is a market in which there are many
buyers and sellers, so that each has a negligible impact on
price.
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Individual’s Demand for a Good or Service
• A demand schedule shows the various amounts of a product
consumers are willing to purchase at each specific price point,
ceteris paribus (all other things being equal).
• The negative or inverse relationship between price and the
quantity demanded is known as the Law of Demand.
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Check Your Understanding
Demand shows the
a. quantity of a good that buyers will buy at a given
price.
b. quantity of a good that sellers will sell at a given
price.
c. quantities of a good that sellers will sell at all possible
prices.
d. quantities of a good that buyers will buy at all
possible prices.
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Market and Individual Demand
When the price is $40, Kate
will demand 6 CDs.
Kate’s Demand
When the price is $40, Paul
will demand 4 CDs.
Paul’s Demand
Price of CD
Price of CD
The market demand at $40
will be 10 CDs.
Market Demand
Price of CD
40
40
40
20
20
20
6
12
Quantity of CDs
4
8
Quantity of CDs
10
20
Quantity of CDs
When the price is $20, Paul
The market demand at $20,
the price is $20, Kate
TheWhen
market
demand
curve
is
the
horizontal
sum of the
will demand 8 CDs.
will be 20 CDs.
will demand 12 CDs.
individual demand curves
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A Change in Demand versus a Change in the Quantity
Demanded
• A change in demand occurs if any determinant of demand (other
than the price of the good or service itself) changes. This will shift the
demand curve.
– An increase in demand shifts the demand curve to the right and
will result in a new equilibrium (↑P and ↑ Q).
– A decrease in demand shifts the demand curve to the left and will
result in a new equilibrium (↓P and ↓Q).
• A change in the quantity demanded occurs if the price of the good or
service itself changes. This is reflected by a movement along an
existing demand curve.
– An increase in price will lead to a decrease in the quantity
demanded.
– A decrease in price will lead to an increase in the quantity
demanded.
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Check Your Understanding
A change in demand represents a ________ while a
change in quantity demanded is a ________.
a. shift to a new demand curve; movement along one
demand curve
b. movement along one demand curve; movement
along another demand curve
c. movement along one demand curve; shift to a new
demand curve
d. shift to a new demand curve; shift to a another new
demand curve
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Determinants of Demand
(Factors that will Shift the Demand Curve)
1. Tastes or Preferences
A change in tastes in favour of a product causes an increase in
demand.
2. Population and Demographics
An increase in the number of consumers in the market represents an
increase in demand.
3. Income
Normal goods: demand varies directly with income. An increase in
income causes an increase in demand.
Inferior goods: demand varies inversely with income.
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Determinants of Demand (cont.)
4. Prices of Related Goods
Substitutes: A good that can be used in place of another good. A
decrease in the price of a substitute good causes the demand for the
other good to decrease.
Complements: Goods that must be used jointly. A decrease in the
price of one good causes the demand curve for the other good to
shift to the right.
5. Expectations
Consumer expectations of higher future prices may result in an
increase in demand.
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Check Your Understanding
If tyres and petrol are complements, then
a. an increase in the price of tyres will increase the
consumption of petrol.
b. an increase in the price of petrol will increase the
consumption of tyres.
c. an increase in the price of petrol will reduce the
consumption of tyres.
d. tyres and petrol consumption are unrelated.
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Shifts and Movements
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Check Your Understanding
What effect will each of the following have on the
demand for NIKE running shoes?
a.
NIKE running shoes become more fashionable.
b. The price of REBOCK running shoes, a popular substitute,
goes down.
c.
Consumers anticipate that prices on all running shoes will
fall next month.
d. There is a rapid increase in the population due to
increased immigration.
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Supply for a Good or Service
• A supply schedule shows the various amounts of a product that
producers are willing and able to produce at various prices, ceteris
paribus (all other things being equal).
• Positive or direct relationship between price and quantity supplied is
known as the Law of Supply.
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Market and Individual Supply
• Market supply refers to the sum of all individual supplies
for all sellers of a particular good or service.
• Graphically, individual supply curves are summed
horizontally to obtain the market supply curve
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A Change in Supply versus a Change in the Quantity
Supplied
• A change in supply occurs if any determinant of supply (other than
the price of the good or service itself) changes. This will shift the
supply curve.
– An increase in supply shifts the supply curve to the right and will
result in a new equilibrium (↓P and ↑ Q).
– A decrease in supply shifts the supply curve to the left and will
result in a new equilibrium (↑P and ↓Q).
• A change in the quantity supplied occurs if the price of the good or
service itself changes. This is reflected by a movement along an
existing supply curve.
– An increase in price will lead to an increase in the quantity
supplied.
– A decrease in price will lead to a decrease in the quantity
supplied.
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Determinants of Supply
(Factors that will Shift the Supply Curve)
1.
Resource prices: A decrease in price of inputs lowers
production costs and increases supply.
2.
Technology: Technological improvements lowers
production costs and increases supply.
3.
Prices of Substitutes in Production
4.
Expected Future Prices
5.
Number of sellers: The larger the number of suppliers,
the greater is market supply.
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Shifts and Movements
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Market Equilibrium
• The intersection of the supply curve and the demand curve for the
product indicates the equilibrium price and quantity.
• At the equilibrium price: quantity demanded = quantity supplied;
• The intentions of both buyers and sellers coincide.
• There is no incentive to alter the price.
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Check Your Understanding
Which of the following describes what occurs at a
market equilibrium?
a. Everyone who wants to buy at the current price can
do so.
b. The market is cleared, there is no surplus and no
shortage.
c. Every seller who is willing to sell at the current price
can do so.
d. All these correctly describe what happens at a
market equilibrium.School of Economics, Finance and
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108
Market Disequilibrium: Shortages & Surpluses
• A surplus causes a competitive bidding down of price by
suppliers.
• A shortage causes a competitive bidding up of price by
buyers.
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Market Clearing
Price
Price
S
S
A
A
P0
P0
D0
Q0
RMIT University
D0
Quantity
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Q0
Quantity
110
Check Your Understanding
In the Figure above, if demand was to increase, then
equilibrium
a. price falls and quantity rises.
b. price and quantity fall.
c. price rises and quantity falls.
d. price and quantity rise.
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Check Your Understanding
What will happen to the equilibrium price and quantity of
butter in each of the following cases? State whether
demand or supply (or both) have shifted and in which
direction.
a. A rise in the price of margarine;
b. A rise in the price of bread;
c. A tax on butter production and an increased preference
for butter over margarine.
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Review Your Understanding
If the price of a product increases from $12 to $15,
assuming all else remains constant, then the
a. demand for the product will decrease.
b. quantity demanded for the product will decrease
c. demand for the product will increase.
d. quantity demanded for the product will increase.
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Review Your Understanding
The expectation of higher future prices actually
causes higher prices now because
a. quantity demanded will increase now.
b. supply will increase now as firms try to sell before the
price rises.
c. demand will increase now as people try to buy before
price rises.
d. quantity supply will decrease now.
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114
Review Your Understanding
Pens are normal goods. What will happen to the
equilibrium price of pens if the price of pencils rises,
consumers experience an increase in income,
writing in ink becomes fashionable, people expect
the price of pens to rise in the near future, the
population increases, fewer firms manufacture pens,
and the wages of pen-makers increase?
a. Price will rise.
b. Price will fall.
c. Price will stay exactly the same.
d. The price change will be ambiguous.
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Review Your Understanding
Consider the housing market domestically and assume that
due to tax incentives, building and development companies
have dramatically increased the amount of new housing
available in the country, causing a surplus in the market.
Using market demand and supply illustrate the above
situation.
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Review Your Understanding
Using the market for beer, consider the following
events and use the demand-supply model to
illustrate the effects of each event on quantity and
the price.
Briefly state the determinant assumption being
made for each event.
a.Decrease in the price of yeast.
b.The legal age for all alcohol consumption increases to
21 in the country.
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The Product Market
Economic Growth, the Financial System and Business Cycles - Chapter 5 (pp.
117-124)
Aggregate Expenditure and Output in the Short-Term - Chapter 7 (pp. 174,
177-187)
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Analysis - Chapter 8 (pp. 212-225)
Learning Objectives:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Understand what happens during business cycles and their relationship to
long-run economic growth.
Discuss the determinants of aggregate demand and distinguish between a
movement along the aggregate demand curve and a shift of the AD curve.
Discuss the determinants of the four components of aggregate expenditure
and define the marginal propensity to consume and the marginal propensity
to save.
Discuss the determinants of aggregate supply, and distinguish between a
movement along and a shift of the AS curve.
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The Business Cycle
• The economy grows over time, but there are irregular
fluctuations in its rate of growth from year to year.
• The business cycle refers to the periodic but irregular ups and
downs in the level of growth in economic activity over a
period of time.
Real GDP
Peak
Trough
Time
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Economic Fluctuations
• Irregular and unpredictable.
• Most macroeconomic quantities fluctuate together.
• Changes in the economy’s output of goods and services are
strongly correlated with changes in the economy’s
utilisation of its labour force.
– Potential real GDP: The level of real GDP attained when all
firms are producing at capacity.
– Actual real GDP fluctuates around the long-run potential in
the Business Cycle.
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120
Check Your Understanding
During the expansion phase of the business cycle,
a. employment decreases.
b. income decreases.
c. unemployment increases.
d. production increases.
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Aggregate Demand
• AD curve shows the amounts of goods and services (RGDP) that will
be purchased at any given price level.
• AD is the relationship between the price level and RGDP.
• Overall price level of goods and services
– An increase in the price level decreases the value of money
because each dollar you have buys less.
– When the price level increases how much we can buy with $1
decreases, in other words, the value of money decreases in terms
of goods and services purchased.
Price
level
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AD = C+I+G+NX = AE
RGDP
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Slide 122
Marketing
122
Aggregate Demand Slopes Downwards
Three key factors help explain the downward slope of the AD curve
and hence the inverse relationship between the overall price level
and the level of RGDP demanded.
1.
Wealth Effect
–
2.
Changes in the price level, with other things remaining the same,
change real wealth, thus changing the level of spending.
Interest Rate Effect
–
3.
Higher prices requires more money for purchases. Higher interest
rates discourages business investment and reduces consumption
expenditure on consumer durables.
International Trade Effect
–
Higher prices causes consumers to spend less on domestically
produced goods and services (g&s) and more on imported g&s.
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123
Check Your Understanding
Because of the slope of the aggregate demand curve
we can say that
a. a decrease in the price level leads to a higher level of
aggregate spending.
b. a decrease in the price level leads to a lower level of
aggregate spending.
c. a decrease in the price level leads to a higher level of
aggregate supply.
d. an increase in the price level leads to a higher level
of aggregate spending.
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Components of AE - Shifts of AD
• Changes in consumer spending
– Expenditures by households on durable goods, non-durable
consumer goods, and on services.
• Changes in investment spending
– the purchase of capital goods - plant and equipment, residential
structures, and changes in inventory - that can be used in the
production of other goods and services.
• Changes in Government spending
– Conduct of fiscal policy: changes in government purchases of
goods and services and taxation.
• Changes in Net Foreign spending
– (Export - Imports) = Net Exports
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Consumption Spending
If income is considered a primary determinant of consumption
then:
C
S
MPC 
C = CO + cY
Y
MPS 
Y
C: Total consumption expenditure
CO: Autonomous/exogenous consumption. Captures the effect of the
non-income factors.
MPC: Marginal propensity to consume. Extra consumption associated
with an extra dollar of disposable income.
MPS: Marginal propensity to save. Extra savings associated with an extra
dollar of disposable income.
•Based on the principal thatSchool
Yd =of Economics,
C + S Finance and
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126
Check Your Understanding
If consumption spending increases from $350 million to
$358 million when income increases from $412 million to
$432 million it can be concluded that the relevant
marginal propensity to consume is:
a. 0.2
b. 0.4
c. 0.6
d. 0.8
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Check Your Understanding
If the MPC is 0.95, then a $10 million increase in
disposable income will
a.increase consumption by $5 million.
b.increase saving by $9.5 million.
c.increase saving by $0.5 million.
d.increase consumption by $950 million.
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Consumption Spending
The level of consumption spending is influenced by:
• Wealth
• Level of consumer debt
• Expectations – e.g. future incomes or prices
• Availability and the cost of credit
• Age distribution of the population
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Investment Spending
The level of investment spending is influenced by:
• Interest rate
• Expectations and business sentiment
• Acquisition, operating and maintenance costs
• Business taxes
• Technological change/innovation
• Capital stock
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Government Spending
The level of government expenditure is influenced by:
• Discretionary Fiscal Policy: deliberate changes in government
spending and tax revenue used to help stabilise the economy.
• Expansionary fiscal policy involves:
– Increases in government spending
– Lowering of taxes
– A combination of the two
• Contractionary fiscal policy involves:
– Decreases in government spending
– Increasing of taxes
– A combination of the two
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Net Foreign Spending
The three most important variables that determine the level
of net exports are:
• The price level in Singapore relative to the price level in
other countries.
• The growth rate of GDP in Singapore relative to the growth
rates of GDP in other countries.
• The exchange rate between the Singaporean dollar and
other countries currencies.
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132
Check Your Understanding
If countries that imported goods and services from
Singapore went into recession, what would be the
impact on:
a.domestic net exports
b.the aggregate demand curve
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Aggregate Supply
– The short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS) shows the
relationship in the short-run between the price level and
the quantity of real GDP supplied by firms.
Price
level
AS
RGDP
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The Slope of the Short-run Aggregate Supply Slope (SRAS)
The SRAS is upward sloping, showing that in the short-run firms will
produce more in response to higher prices. The reason for this is that
the price of inputs tends to rise more slowly than the price of final
products due to wage and price rigidities.
• Nominal Wages Rigidities
– If the price level falls, real wages rise, production costs increase;
firms hire less labour, thus producing a smaller output.
• Price Rigidities
– Not all firms adjust prices immediately in response to changes in
the price level; affecting their competitiveness, sales and thus
production.
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Short-Run Aggregate Supply
The variables that shift the SRAS curve include:
1. Expected changes in the future price level.
2. Adjustments of workers and firms to errors in past
expectations about the price level.
3. Unexpected changes in the price of an important
natural resource.
4. Plus any factor that shifts the LRAS curve.
Note: Factors 1-3 shift only the SRAS curve not
LRAS curve
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Long-Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS)
– The long-run aggregate supply curve (LRAS) shows the
relationship in the long-run between the price level and
the quantity of real GDP supplied.
– The long-run
aggregate supply
curve shows that
in the long-run
increases in the
price level do not
affect the level of
RGDP.
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Factors that Shift the LRAS Curve
– Shifts in the long-run aggregate supply curve occur
because potential GDP increases over time. Anything
that shifts the LRAS also shifts the SRAS.
– Increases in GDP (or economic growth) which shift the
LRAS are due to:
1. An increase in resources.
2. An increase in the capital stock.
3. New technology
4. Changes in government policy (Incentives to work
and invest)
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Check Your Understanding
The level of long run aggregate supply is NOT
affected by
a. changes in the price level.
b. changes in the number size of the labour force.
c. changes in the capital stock.
d. changes in technology.
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Macroeconomic Equilibrium
Price Level
Price Level
LRAS
SRAS
LRAS
SRAS
P0
AD
Y0
P0
Price Level
LRAS
SRAS
AD
Yf
RGDP
Yf
RGDP
P0
AD
Yf
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Y0
RGDP
140
Check Your Understanding
Suppose the economy is at full employment and
firms become more optimistic about the future
profitability of new investment. Which of the
following will happen in the short run?
a. Prices will decline.
b. Unemployment will decline.
c. Aggregate demand will shift to the left.
d. Output will decline.
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Check Your Understanding
What effects might each of the following have on
aggregate demand and/or aggregate supply and which
determinant has changed?
a. A widespread fear of depression among consumers.
b. A tax leading to a 2% increase in petrol prices.
c.
A decrease in interest rates.
d. A decrease in government spending on higher education.
e. The discovery of cheaper energy sources.
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Review Your Understanding
The interest rate effect is described as an increase
in the price level which
a. lowers the interest rate thereby reducing government
spending.
b. lowers the interest rate thereby reducing investment
and consumption spending.
c. raises the interest rate thereby reducing government
spending.
d. raises the interest rate thereby reducing investment
and consumption spending.
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Review Your Understanding
The level of real GDP in the long run is called
a. potential GDP.
b. frictional GDP.
c. low capacity GDP.
d. short run GDP.
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Review Your Understanding
In the Figure above, which of the points are possible
long run equilibriums?
a.A and B
b.A and C
c.A and D
d.B and D
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Review Your Understanding
Macroeconomic equilibrium always occurs when
a.real GDP = potential GDP.
b.aggregate income = national savings
c.aggregate expenditure = C+ I + G + NX.
d.none of the above
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Review Your Understanding
If disposable income increases by $100 million, and
consumption increases by $90 million, then the
marginal propensity to consume is
a.0.6
b.0.9
c.0.75
d.0.8
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Review Your Understanding
In the Figure above, given the economy is at point A in year 1
and point B in year 2, what is the growth rate in potential GDP
between those two years?
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Review Your Understanding
In each case, specify which of the four components of AE
will be impacted, and how:
a.Real interest rates increase.
b.Two of Singapore’s major trading partners, experience high
GDP growth relative to Singapore.
c.The business sector becomes pessimistic about future
profits.
d.Most households believe their income prospects are
positive
for the foreseeable
School of future.
Economics, Finance and
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Review Your Understanding
Imagine that the economy is in long-run equilibrium. Then,
perhaps because of improved international relations and
increased confidence in policy makers, people become more
optimistic about the future and stay this way for some time.
a.What would be the impact on the AD curve?
b.In the short-run, how will this affect the price level and RGDP?
c.As a result of the impact on the price level in (b) what happens
to the expected price level and what’s the result for wage
bargaining?
d.How does the change in price expectations in (c) affect the
product market?
e.Illustrate the entire above scenario, highlighting the final longSchool of Economics, Finance and
run RMIT
equilibrium
University
150
Marketing
The Labour Market
Unemployment - Chapter 9 (pp.262-264)
Learning Objectives:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Explain what factors determine the unemployment rate.
Explain labour market equilibrium and disequilibrium
Explain the consequence of labour market disequilibrium
Describe the changes that have occurred in the determination of wages and
discuss the possible effects on unemployment.
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The Labour Market
• Through the workings of the supply of labour and demand for
labour, the levels of employment and the representative
equilibrium wage rate is determined.
• The labour market is a resource market meaning that firms are
the demanders and householders are the suppliers in this
market.
• The labour market as presented, can be understood in terms of
a representative model (in reality there are many distinct labour
markets)
Supply of labour: Quantity of labour provided by households
at various wage rates.
Demand for labour: Quantity of labour hired by firms at
various wage rates.
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Real Wage Rate
• Real wage = nominal wage/overall price level
= w/p
• Real wage is the amount of purchasing power that each
worker receives and which the firm pays for each unit of
labour.
• The wage rate can be viewed as the opportunity cost of
leisure.
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Labour Market Equilibrium
In a perfectly competitive labour market, the wage rate and
level of employment is determined by the intersection of the
demand and supply curves.
Real wage
Real wage
SL
SL
w0
p0
w0
p0
DL
N0
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Labour
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Causes of Unemployment
• When wages are set above their market-clearing level:
– Minimum wage laws
– Unions and collective bargaining: Prevent downward wage
flexibility
– Efficiency wages: Firms may make higher profits by paying above
market-clearing wage rates (link between wages and worker
effort, worker quality and company turnover)
• Government Policies that influence the incentive to work:
– Job network & unemployment benefits and unemployment
insurance
• Deficiency in Aggregate Demand
– Cyclical unemployment
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Why did Henry Ford
pay his workers twice
as much as other car
manufacturers?
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Check Your Understanding
Mary Sue is the newly appointed CEO of a company
that manufactures CD drives on an assembly line. Her
staff has told her that the output the firm produces,
given the number of workers employed, indicates that
some workers may be shirking. According to
efficiency wage theory, what should she do?
a.Pay all workers more than the equilibrium wage rate
b.Pay all workers below the equilibrium wage rate to make
up for the loss from shirking
c.Make sure that workers are getting paid exactly the
equilibrium wage rate
d.None of the above is correct according to efficiency
wage theory.
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Check Your Understanding
When a union bargains successfully with an employer, in
that industry
a. The unemployment and wages increase.
b. Unemployment and wages decrease.
c. Unemployment decreases and wages increase.
d. Unemployment increases and wages decrease.
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Labour Market Regulation and Deregulation
Advantages of deregulation:
– Numerical and functional labour market flexibility:
• Numerical flexibility: ease with which firms can vary the
quantity of labour inputs.
• Functional flexibility: ease with which the tasks performed by
workers can be altered.
Disadvantages of deregulation:
– Relate primarily to equity, and in particular, the vulnerability of
workers in weak bargaining positions.
– Such workers are often low paid and low skilled.
– Minimum wages may be used to ensure greater equity.
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Review Your Understanding
Which of the following have a tendency to raise the
unemployment rate?
a.The establishment of effective trade unions in an
economy
b.Firms deciding to pay efficiency wages in an economy
c.Implementing a minimum wage in an economy
d.All of these are correct.
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Review Your Understanding
Trade unions cause unemployment because the
union contract wage is set
a.above the market wage, causing a shortage of labour.
b.below the market wage, causing a surplus of labour.
c.below the market wage, causing a shortage of labour.
d.above the market wage, causing a surplus of labour.
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Review Your Understanding
What is the rationale behind the efficiency wage model?
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The Exchange Rate Market
Macroeconomics in an Open Economy - Chapter 14 (pp. 404-410)
Learning Objectives:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Explain how exchange rates are determined.
The difference between the direct and indirect quotations of exchange rates.
How changes in exchange rates affect the prices of imports and exports.
The exchange rate market model.
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Nominal Exchange Rate
• The rate at which one currency is exchanged for another.
Direct: Singapore dollars required to purchase a unit of
foreign currency:
$SGD
1.46 SGD
e

 1.46
1 ForeignCurrency
1USD
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Nominal Exchange Rate
• Depreciation: the SGD is worth less in terms of another
currency. i.e. is less valuable. So, it takes more SGD to
purchase a unit of foreign currency. Exchange rate increases.
• Appreciation: means the SGD is worth more in terms of
another currency. So, it takes less SGD to purchase a unit of
foreign currency. Exchange rate decreases.
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Check Your Understanding
When the dollar weakens, each dollar buys
a.more foreign currency, and so buys more foreign
goods.
b.more foreign currency, and so buys fewer foreign
goods.
c.less foreign currency, and so buys more foreign goods.
d.less foreign currency, and so buys fewer foreign
goods.
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Exchange Rate Market
• Market forces in the form of supply and demand determine the
level of the foreign exchange rate.
e
SFX
DFX
Quantity
– SFX is derived from any transaction which involves a payment from nonresidents to residents. Converting foreign currency to domestic currency.
– DFX is derived from any transaction which involves a payments from residents to
non-residents. Converting domestic currency to foreign currency.
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Exchange Rate Market
• Importing:
• Exporting
– Demand for FX.
– Supply of FX.
– Supply of SGD.
– Demand for SGD.
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Changes in Net Exports
Increased Exports
Decreased Imports
Exchange rate
Exchange rate
SAUD
SAUD0
e0
e0
DAUD0
Q0
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Q0
Quantity
169
Shifts in demand and supply
1. Changes in demand for Singapore-produced goods and
services and changes in the demand for foreign-produced
goods and services.
2. Changes in the desire to invest in Singapore and changes
in the desire to invest in foreign countries.
3. Changes in the expectations of currency traders about the
likely future value of the dollar and the likely future value
of foreign currencies.
– Speculators: Currency traders who buy and sell foreign
exchange in an attempt to profit by changes in
exchange rates
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Check Your Understanding
a.
b.
c.
d.
If domestically produced goods increased in price relative
to foreign produced goods,
exports would increase and imports would decrease
resulting in an appreciation.
exports would decrease and imports would increase
resulting in an appreciation.
exports would decrease and imports would increase
resulting in a depreciation.
exports would increase and imports would decrease
resulting in a depreciation.
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Check Your Understanding
A rise in domestic interest rates relative to interest rates
in other countries may lead to
a. an exchange rate depreciation and an increase in net
exports.
b. an exchange rate appreciation and a fall in net exports.
c. an exchange rate depreciation and a fall in net exports.
d. an exchange rate appreciation and an increase in net
exports.
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Review Your Understanding
Exchange rates are 120 yen per dollar, 0.8 euro per dollar, and
10 pesos per dollar. A bottle of beer in Singapore costs 6
dollars, 1,200 yen in Tokyo, 7.2 euro in Munich, and 50 pesos
in Cancun. Where is the most expensive and the cheapest
beer?
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Review Your Understanding
Ceteris paribus, assume the exchange rate changes from 115
yen per dollar to 125 yen per dollar. Has the dollar
appreciated or depreciated and what may be the impact for
the consumption of Singaporean and Japanese goods.
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Review Your Understanding
Singapore’s major trading partners experience a severe
recession.
Illustrate the impact on the exchange rate market and state
whether the currency has appreciated or depreciated as a
result.
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The Financial Market
Economic Growth, the Financial System and Business Cycle - Chapter 6
(pp. 125-133)
Learning Objectives:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Discuss the role of the financial system in facilitating economic growth.
Understand the link between savings and investment and how these are
facilitated by the financial system.
To introduce the loanable funds model and understand the sources of
demand and supply in this market.
To understand the significance of the real long term rate of interest in driving
investment decisions.
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Saving, Investment and the Financial System
•
The Financial system: The system of financial markets and
financial intermediaries through which firms acquire funds
from households.
•
Financial intermediaries include banks and non-bank
financial institutions.
• Financial markets include the share and bond markets.
― Shares: financial securities that represent partial
ownership of a firm.
― Bonds: financial securities that represent promises to
repay a fixed amount of funds.
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The Role of the Financial System
– Financial intermediaries, such as banks, mutual funds,
pension funds, and insurance companies, act as gobetweens for borrowers and lenders.
– Financial markets enable firms to raise funds by selling
financial securities (shares or bonds directly to savers).
– As well as facilitating the channeling of funds from savers
to borrowers the financial system provides three key
additional services for savers and borrowers:
1. risk sharing,
2. liquidity, and
3. information.
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Loanable Funds Market Model
– The demand for loanable funds is determined by the
willingness of firms to borrow funds to engage in new
investment projects.
– The supply of loanable funds is determined by the
willingness of households to save, and by the extent of
government saving or dissaving (borrowing / budget
deficit).
– Equilibrium in the market for loanable funds determines
the real interest rate and the quantity of loanable funds
exchanged.
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Loanable Funds Market
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Explaining Movements in Savings, Investment and
Interest Rates
An increase in the demand for loanable funds
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Explaining Movements in Savings, Investment and
Interest Rates
The effect of a budget deficit on the market for loanable funds
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Ebenezer Scrooge: Accidental
promoter of Economic growth?
– Who was better for
economic growth:
Scrooge the saver or
Scrooge the spender?
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Review Your Understanding
Equilibrium in the loanable funds market determines
a.the current interest rate
b.the real interest rate
c.the expected interest rate
d.the nominal interest rate
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Review Your Understanding
Some economists have suggested that interest on savings
should be subject to a lower tax rate than is currently being
paid.
Use the market for loanable funds model to analyse the
impact of a policy change of this nature on savings,
investment, the interest rate and economic growth. Illustrate
the impact on the loanable funds market.
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The Money Market
Money, Banks and the Monetary Authority of Singapore - Chapter
11
Learning Objectives:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Define money and discuss its functions.
Discuss the definition of the money supply used.
Explain how financial institutions create money.
Illustrate and discuss the money market.
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What is Money and Why do we Need it?
– Money: Assets that people are willing to accept in
exchange for goods and services or for payment of debts.
– Asset: Anything of value owned by a person or firm.
– Barter: exchange of goods or services for other goods or
services.
– Barter requires a double coincidence of wants.
– Commodity money: A good used as money that also has
value independent of its use as money.
– Fiat money: Money such as paper currency that is
authorised by the central bank and has no intrinsic value
except in its function as money.
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Check Your Understanding
Money is
a.the income a person earns over a period of time.
b.a person's assets net of liabilities at any point in time.
c.a liability that people are willing to accept in exchange
for goods and services.
d.an asset that people are generally willing to accept in
exchange for goods and services.
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Check Your Understanding
The problem with barter economies is that they require
a. that there be a double coincidence of wants.
b. a banking system for trade to occur.
c. that there be a single coincidence of wants.
d. less time and trouble to trade as compared with a
money economy.
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Money in a World War II
prisoner of war camp.
– During World War II
cigarettes were used
as money in some
prisoner of war
camps.
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Check Your Understanding
a.
b.
c.
d.
In World War II, cigarettes were used as money in some
prisoner of war camps. Given this, we would expect to
see
prices of other goods expressed in terms of cigarettes.
people bartering instead of using cigarettes as money.
only government-issued cigarettes being accepted as
money.
no one ever smoking cigarettes in the prisoner of war
camps.
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What is Money and Why do we Need it?
•
•
What can serve as money?
What makes a good suitable to use as a
exchange? There are five criterion:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The good must be acceptable to most traders
It should be a standardised quality
It should be durable
It should be valuable relative to its weight
It should be divisible
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192
Functions of Money
1.
Medium of exchange
– Buying and selling goods and services
– Money eliminates need for a coincidence of wants required for
trade to occur in a barter economy.
2. Unit of account
– Assist the measurement of the relative worth of various goods,
services and resources.
3. Store of value
– A form in which to store wealth due to its liquidity and
convenience
4. Standard of deferred payment
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Check Your Understanding
a.
b.
c.
d.
The statement 'a Dell laptop costs $2500' illustrates
which function of money?
Store of value
Medium of exchange
Standard of deferred payment
Unit of account
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How do we Measure Money Today?
• M1: The narrowest definition of the money supply which
includes all the paper money and coins that are in
circulation – meaning what is not held by the banks or the
state and federal governments – plus the value of all
demand deposits with banks.
• M3: M1, plus all other deposits with domestic and foreign
owned banks operating in Singapore.
• Broad Money: M3, plus deposits into non-bank deposittaking institutions less holdings of currency and deposits
of non-bank depository corporations, such as finance
companies, money market corporations and cash
management trusts.
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Financial Institutions and the Creation of Money
• Reserves: Deposits that a bank keeps as cash in its vault or
on deposit with the Central Bank.
• Reserve Ratio: A bank’s ratio of reserves to deposits.
• Excess Reserves: Reserves above the normal ratio of
reserves to deposits.
• Financial institutions such as banks are able to create
money through the simple deposit multiplier process.
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Check Your Understanding
The portion of ________ that a bank does not loan
out or spend on securities is known as ________.
a.loans; reserves
b.loans; securities
c.deposits; reserves
d.deposits; securities
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Banks and Money Creation
• Assume the required reserve ratio is 10% and $1,000 is
deposited into Bank A.
Bank A
Assets ($1,000)
Liabilities ($1,000)
Bank B
Assets ($900)
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Liabilities ($900)
198
Banks and Money Creation
Bank C
Assets ($810)
Liabilities ($810)
From the original deposit a new loan is created that result in further
deposits into the financial system
Bank A
= $1,000
Bank B
= $900
Bank C
= $810
Bank D
= $729
Bank……
Total change in demand account deposits = $10,000
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Check Your Understanding
If Thrifty Bank receives a $10 000 deposit, and keeps
10% of its deposits in reserve, how much will the
bank loan out?
a.$1000
b.$9000
c.$11 000
d.$10 000
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The Simple Deposit Multiplier
– The simple deposit/credit/money multiplier: The ratio of
the amount of deposits created by banks to the amount
of new reserves.
1
Simple deposit multiplier =
RR
– Change in deposits = initial deposit x multiplier ($1,000 x
10 = $10, 000)
– Change in the money supply = change in demand account
deposits – initial deposit ($10,000 - $1,000 = $9,000)
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201
Check Your Understanding
If the reserve ratio is 0.05 then the simple deposit multiplier
is
a. 20
b. 10
c. 2
d. 5
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202
Check Your Understanding
a.
b.
c.
d.
Other things the same if reserve requirements are
decreased, the reserve ratio?
decreases, the money multiplier increases, and the money
supply decreases
increases, the money multiplier increases, and the money
supply increases
decreases, the money multiplier increases, and the money
supply increases
increases, the money multiplier increases, and the money
supply decreases
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Check Your Understanding
Suppose Colin deposits $3000 into ABC Bank. Assume ABC Bank has
no excess reserves at the time of this deposit, and the bank’s reserve
ratio is 0.20
a. Show the initial impact of Colin’s deposit on the bank’s balance
sheet, and the maximum amount ABC Bank can now lend as a
result of this deposit.
b. What is the maximum increase in deposits that can result from
Colin’s initial deposit? What is the increase in the money supply?
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Check Your Understanding
Imagine that the banking system receives additional deposits of $100
million and that all
the individual banks wish to retain their current liquidity ratio of 20
per cent.
a. How much will banks choose to lend out initially?
b. What will happen to banks' liabilities when the money that is lent
out is spent and the recipients of it deposit it in their bank accounts?
c. How much of these latest deposits will be lent out by the banks?
d. By how much will the money supply eventually have risen, assuming
that none of the additional liquidity is held outside the banking
sector?
e. What is the size of the bank multiplier?
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Money Supply
• Notes and Coins; Bank deposits and Non-Bank Financial
Institution deposits
• Ms determined exogenously
r
Ms
Quantity of Money
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The Money Market
The Demand for Money
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207
Check Your Understanding
The money demand curve is downward sloping because
a. lower interest rates cause households and firms to switch
from money to financial assets.
b. lower interest rates cause households and firms to switch
from financial assets to money.
c. lower interest rates cause households and firms to switch
from money to bonds.
d. lower interest rates cause households and firms to switch
from money to shares.
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The Money Market
Shifts in the Money Demand Curve
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Money Market and Equilibrium
r
MS
r0
MD
Quantity of Money
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210
Check Your Understanding
A decrease in real GDP can
a. increase money demand and increase the interest rate.
b. decrease money demand and increase the interest rate.
c. decrease money demand and decrease the interest rate.
d. increase money demand and decrease the interest rate.
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Check Your Understanding
The money market model is concerned with
________ and the loanable funds market model is
concerned with ________.
a.short-term real interest rates; long term real interest
rates
b.short-term nominal interest rates; long term nominal
interest rates
c.short-term real interest rates; long term nominal
interest rates
d.short-term nominal interest rates; long term real
interest rates
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Review Your Understanding
When a grocery store accepts your $10 note in exchange for
bread and milk, this illustrates that the $10 note is serving
as a
a. store of value.
b. standard of deferred payment.
c. unit of account.
d. medium of exchange.
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Review Your Understanding
Suppose you deposit $2000 into a bank that has a reserve
ratio of 0.01. How does this affect the bank's balance
sheet?
a. Reserves rise by $200.
b. Excess reserves rise by $1800.
c. Required reserves rise by $2000.
d. Deposits rise by $1000.
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Review Your Understanding
Mia puts money into a piggy bank so she can spend it later.
What function of money does this illustrate?
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Review Your Understanding
What will be the impact on the bank multiplier of a decision
by the banks to hold a higher liquidity ratio?
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Review Your Understanding
An increase in real GDP
a.decreases the buying and selling of goods and
decreases the demand for money as a medium of
exchange.
b.increases the buying and selling of goods and
decreases the demand for money as a medium of
exchange.
c.increases the buying and selling of goods and
increases the demand for money as a medium of
exchange.
d.decreases the buying and selling of goods and
increases the demand for money as a medium of
exchange.
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MID-SEMESTER TEST
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GOVERNMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH
 MONETARY POLICY
 FISCAL POLICY
 RECESSION, INFLATION & THE LONG-RUN
 DEVELOPMENT & GROWTH
Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy - Chapter 12
Learning Objectives:
1. Define monetary policy and describe the main goal of monetary policy.
2. Describe how the Central Bank affects interest rates.
3. Use aggregate demand and aggregate supply graphs to show the effects of
monetary policy on real GDP and the price level.
4. Discuss the Central Bank’s use of monetary policy.
5. Discuss the role of the MAS.
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What Is Monetary Policy?
– Monetary policy: The actions taken by the Central Bank
of a nation to affect interest rates and/or exchange
rates.
– The main goals of Monetary policy in Singapore
• Price Stability
• Sustainable Economic Growth.
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Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)
• Mission: promote sustained non-inflationary
economic growth, and a sound and progressive
financial centre.
• Main functions:
–
–
–
–
–
Conduct of monetary and exchange rate policy
Banker and financial agent of the Government
Banker to financial institutions
Regulation and supervision of the financial sector
Promotion and development of the financial sector
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Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)
• “Central banks in most developed economies usually
describe their aims in terms of the pursuit of noninflationary growth.
• Today, there’s a consensus that price stability should be
the overriding objective of monetary policy.
• In 1981, MAS moved to an exchange rate centred
monetary policy”.
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External Balance
• When there is an increase in the demand for Singapore
dollars and the market exchange rate strengthens and the
exchange rate moves to the lower end of the established
band, the MAS sells Singapore dollars to banks and/or buys
government securities from banks.
• The money base (supply) will increase, pushing down
Singapore dollar interest rates. Lower domestic interest rates
relative to foreign interest rates restrain capital inflows into
the nation, encouraging outflows.
• Supply of foreign currency (FX) decreases and demand for
foreign currency increases, weakening the currency to
restore stability.
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External Balance
p
AS
Sell S$
Increase in the money supply
Lower domestic interest rates
p0
AD0
Y0
RGDP
Exchange rate
SFX0
e0
DFX0
Quantity
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External Balance
• When there is a decrease in the demand for Singapore
dollars and the currency weakens; the exchange rate moves
to the upper end of the established band, the MAS
purchases Singapore dollars from banks and/or sells
government securities to banks.
• The money base (supply) will decrease, pushing up
Singapore dollar interest rates. Higher domestic interest
rates relative to foreign interest rates induce capital inflows
into the nation and reduce outflows.
• Supply of foreign currency (FX) increases and demand for
foreign currency decreases, strengthening the currency and
restoring stability.
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External Balance
p
AS
p0
Buy S$
Decrease in the money supply
Increase domestic interest rates
AD0
Y0
RGDP
Exchange rate
SFX0
e0
DFX0
Quantity
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Internal Balance
• Goal: Maintain the inflation rate within a particular band.
• Sale and purchase of government securities changes bank
reserves and thus their ability to extend credit, thus
changing the money supply and the interest rate.
• The Monetary Authority targets interest rates by affecting
system liquidity.
• Monetary policy influences the size of bank reserves. This
influences:
– The size of the money supply.
– The interest rate and the availability of credit.
– Investment spending, interest-sensitive consumption
spending thus output, employment and the price level.
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Open Market Operations
• Monetary Authority actions designed to change interest
rates by changing system liquidity to change the cost of
credit and thus economic activity and the price level.
• Easy Money: Authority announces its decision to reduce
interest rates – it buys government securities to maintain
the lower interest rates; expanding the money supply and
reducing the cost of credit.
• Tight Money: Authority announces its decision to increase
interest rates – it sells government securities to maintain
the higher interest rates; reducing the money supply and
increasing the cost of credit.
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Internal Balance – Contractionary Policy
Decrease in the money supply
Increase domestic interest rates
Exchange rate
SFX0
e0
p
AS
DFX0
p0
Q0
Quantity
AD0
Y0
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Internal Balance – Expansionary Policy
Increase in the money supply
Lower domestic interest rates
SFX0
Exchange rate
e0
p
DFX0
AS
Q0
Quantity
p0
AD0
Y0
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Check Your Understanding
If the interest rate is below the Central Bank's target,
the Central Bank would:
a. buy bonds to increase the money supply.
b. buy bonds to decrease the money supply.
c. sell bonds to increase the money supply.
d. sell bonds to decrease the money supply.
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Check Your Understanding
If the Central Bank pursues expansionary monetary
policy then interest rates will
a.fall and GDP will fall.
b.rise and GDP will rise.
c.fall and GDP will rise.
d.rise and GDP will fall.
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Equilibrium in the Money Market
–
With interest rate targeting, the money supply curve is a
horizontal line at the Central Bank’s target interest rate.
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Monetary Policy Effectiveness
• Responsiveness of capital flows, consumption
and investment to changes to changes in
interest rates.
• Phase of the business cycle
• Private decisions of lenders and borrowers.
• Size of the expenditure multiplier
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Check Your Understanding
Suppose you are the monetary policy adviser for the
government. The economy is experiencing a large and
prolonged inflationary trend. What change in open
market operations would you recommend?
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Check Your Understanding
If the MAS buys bonds and securities in the open
market, this is likely to lead to
a. a rise in interest rates and a depreciation of the
Singaporean dollar.
b. a fall in interest rates and a depreciation of the
Singaporean dollar.
c. a fall in interest rates and an appreciation of the
Singaporean dollar.
d. a rise in interest rates and an appreciation of the
Singaporean dollar.
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Why Does The Share Market
Care about Monetary Policy?
– The share
market reacts
when the Central
Bank
implements
policy to either
raise or lower
interest rates.
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Review Your Understanding
Explain the process by which an easy money policy affects
equilibrium output and employment.
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Review Your Understanding
How may the business cycle impact on the effectiveness of
monetary policy?
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Review Your Understanding
If the stock market crashes and aggregate demand decreases,
what can the Central Bank do to offset this decrease in
aggregate demand?
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Review Your Understanding
a. If the Central Bank sells financial instruments in the
open market, what may happen to net exports –
analyse the impact via the product market.
b. If the Central Bank sells financial instruments in the
open market, what may happen to net exports –
analyse the impact via the exchange rate market.
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Fiscal Policy
Aggregate Expenditure and Output in the Short Run - Chapter 7 (pp.
195-200)
Fiscal Policy - Chapter 13
Learning Objectives:
1. Define the multiplier effect and use it to calculate changes in equilibrium GDP.
2. Define fiscal policy.
3. Explain how fiscal policy affects AD and how the government can use fiscal
policy to stabilise the economy.
4. Explain how the multiplier process works with respect to fiscal policy.
5. Discuss the difficulties that can arise in implementing fiscal policy.
6. Explain how the federal budget can serve as an automatic stabiliser.
7. Discuss the long-run supply side effects of fiscal policy.
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Fiscal Policy
• Fiscal Policy: Changes in federal taxes and purchases
that are intended to achieve macroeconomic policy
objectives, such as full employment, price stability, and
healthy sustainable rates of economic growth.
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Rules (Automatic Approach) versus Discretionary
Action
There are two key approaches to fiscal policy; following rules implied
by automatic stabilisers or else implementing a discretionary fiscal
policy.
– Automatic stabilisers: Government spending and taxes that
automatically increase or decrease along with the business cycle.
–Discretionary fiscal policy: when the government is taking actions
to change spending or taxes to achieve its objectives.
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Check Your Understanding
Discretionary fiscal policy is when
a.existing taxation policy automatically smoothes out
business cycle fluctuations in the economy.
b.politicians are discrete about policy changes, and do
not advise consumers or producers of new policies.
c.policy is left to the discretion of the MAS.
d.the government changes the levels of expenditure or
taxation.
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Using Fiscal Policy to Influence Aggregate Demand
Expansionary fiscal policy
– Increasing government expenditure, or decreasing taxes, or both.
The goal is to shift aggregate demand to the right.
–Appropriate when the economy is in a below full-employment
equilibrium.
Contractionary fiscal policy
–Decreasing government expenditure, or increasing taxes, or both.
The goal is to shift aggregate demand to the left.
–Appropriate when the economy is at an above full-employment
equilibrium.
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Check Your Understanding
Fiscal policy refers to the
a.
government's ability to regulate the functioning of financial
markets.
b. spending and taxing policies used by the government to
influence the level of economy activity.
c.
techniques used by firms to reduce its tax liability.
d. the policy by the MAS to affect the cash rate.
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The Government Purchases (Expenditure) and Tax
Multipliers
–
The multiplier effect: The series of induced increases in
consumption spending that results from an initial
increase in autonomous expenditures. The process by
which an increase in autonomous expenditure leads to
a larger increase in real GDP.
– Autonomous expenditure: Expenditure that does not
depend on GDP.
– Multiplier: The increase in equilibrium real GDP divided
by the increase in autonomous expenditure.
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The Government Purchases or Expenditure
Multiplier in Action
Figure 14.6 The multiplier effect and
aggregate demand
– An initial increase in autonomous
government spending, such as building
new railway lines, will increase aggregate
demand by an amount that is more than
the initial amount of new spending.
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Check Your Understanding
The government decides to fund the building of a new
bridge. The owner of the company that builds the bridge
pays her workers. The workers increase their spending.
Firms that the workers buy goods from increase their
output. This type of effect on spending illustrates
a.the multiplier effect.
b.the crowding-out effect.
c.None of the above is correct.
d.the Fisher effect.
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The Multiplier Effect
Change in equilibriu m real GDP
Expenditure Multiplier 
Change in autonomous expenditure
1
Expenditure Multiplier
1 - MPC
–
–
–
–
The multiplier effect occurs both when autonomous
expenditure increases and when it decreases.
The multiplier effect makes the economy more sensitive to
changes in autonomous expenditure than it would otherwise
be.
The larger the MPC, the larger the value of the multiplier.
Our formula for the multiplier is very simplified, but
nevertheless serves to illustrate the process.
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The Government Purchases (Expenditure) and Tax
Multipliers
Changein equilibrium real GDP
GovernmentPurchasesMultiplier
Changein governmentpurchases
1
1
k e
or
1  MPC
MPS
Change in equilibriu m real GDP
Tax Multiplier 
Change in taxes
MPC
kT  
MPS
Y  ke  G
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Y  kT  T
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Check Your Understanding
Suppose the MPC is .75.
If the government increases expenditures by $200 billion how
far does the economy grow?
If the government decreases taxes by $200 billion how far
does the economy grow?
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Check Your Understanding
The tax multiplier
a. is negative
b. only works when taxes are cut
c. is larger in absolute value as compared to the
d. is less than one
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Check Your Understanding
Assume the consumption function for a closed
economy is C=50+0.8Y and that investment is equal
to $30bn.
a. Calculate the equilibrium level of income/output for
this economy.
b. Calculate what will happen to equilibrium income and
output if the government undertakes expansionary
policy of $15bn.
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Multiplier Effectiveness
Fixed Price
Variable Price
Price
Level
AS
P
AD2
AD
Y
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Y
Quantity
of Output
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Crowding Out Effect
Price
Level
P1
AS
A
AD
Y1
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Check Your Understanding
If crowding out occurs, an increase in government
spending
a. decreases the interest rate and consumption and
investment spending rise.
b. decreases the interest rate and consumption and
investment spending decline.
c. increases the interest rate and consumption and
investment spending rise.
d. increases the interest rate and consumption and
investment spending decline.
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Goals of Fiscal Policy
Recessionary Gap
Price Level
Inflationary Gap
Price Level
LRAS
LRAS
SRAS
SRAS
P2
P1
AD
AD
GDP Gap
Y
Yf
Recessionary Gap = GDP Gap
ke
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GDP Gap
Yf
Quantity
of Output
Y
Quantity
of Output
Inflationary Gap = GDP Gap
ke
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Putting Everything Together
Y  k e  G
GDP Gap  k e  G
GDP Gap
G 
ke
GDP Gap
Recessionary Gap 
ke
GDP Gap
Inflationa ry Gap 
ke
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Check Your Understanding
If the MPS is 0.25 and the economy has a recessionary gap of
$5 billion, what is the size of the GDP Gap?
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Successful Fiscal Policy
Real GDP
Time
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Case Against Intervention
• FiscalLags
• Recognition
• Administrative/Legislative
• Operational/Implementation
– Expansionary bias leading to a Political
business cycle
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Deficits, Surpluses and Government Debt
– Budget deficit: The situation in which the government’s spending
is greater than its tax revenue.
– Budget surplus: The situation in which the government’s
expenditures are less than its tax revenue.
– The budget can serve as an automatic stabiliser.
• Federal government deficits increase automatically during
recessions because:
1. Tax revenues fall.
2. Unemployment benefits increase.
•
Federal government deficits decrease or surpluses increase
automatically during expansions because:
1. Tax revenues increase.
2. Unemployment benefit payments decrease.
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Check Your Understanding
Which of the following is an automatic stabiliser?
a. Reductions in nominal wages as inflation rates rise
b. Unemployment benefit payments to the unemployed
c. Interest rate changes
d. Increases in government spending on schools
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Check Your Understanding
To counteract the effect of automatic stabilisers during a
recession and keep the budget balanced, the federal
government must ________ government spending, or
________ taxes, and which will ________ aggregate
demand.
a. decrease; increase; reduce
b. increase; decrease; increase
c. increase; increase; reduce
d. decrease; decrease; increase
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Deficits, Surpluses and Government Debt
– Should the federal budget always be balanced?
– Is government debt a problem?
– These questions are related and the answer is not
always clear-cut.
– Economists examine the debt, and the interest on
the debt in proportionate terms to determine if it is
a problem.
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The Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Long-Run
Supply side policies:
–Fiscal policies that have long-run effects by expanding
the productive capacity of the economy and increasing
the rate of economic growth.
–These policy actions primarily affect aggregate supply,
by shifting the long-run aggregate supply curve to the
right.
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The Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Long-Run
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The Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Long-Run
The long-run effects of tax policy:
– We can look at the effect on aggregate supply of each
of the following taxes:
1. Individual income tax
2. Company income tax
3. Taxes on capital gains
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The Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Long-Run
Tax simplification:
– There are also potential gains to be derived from
simplifying the tax law.
– Resources diverted to tax compliance and tax
minimisation can be put to more productive use.
– Tax simplification may improve the efficiency of firm
and household decision making.
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Long Run Implications of Supply Side Policies
Supply side policies can increase long run aggregate supply, thereby
reducing the upward pressure on prices following an increase in
aggregate demand
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Review Your Understanding
Expansionary fiscal policy ________ the price level
and ________ equilibrium real GDP.
a.increases; increases
b.increases; decreases
c.decreases; decreases
d.decreases; increases
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Review Your Understanding
To try to combat inflation, the government could
a.conduct expansionary fiscal policy.
b.lower interest rates.
c.decrease taxes.
d.decrease government spending.
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Review Your Understanding
If crowding out occurs, an increase in government
spending
a.decreases the interest rate and consumption and
investment spending rise.
b.decreases the interest rate and consumption and
investment spending decline.
c.increases the interest rate and consumption and
investment spending rise.
d.increases the interest rate and consumption and
investment spending decline.
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Review Your Understanding
Refer to the figure above. If the economy moves from A to B, which of
the following would be the appropriate fiscal policy to achieve
potential GDP?
a. Increase taxes
b. Decrease interest rates
c. Contractionary fiscal policy
d. Increase government spending
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Review Your Understanding
Increases in government spending will lower the long term
growth rate of GDP, if it lowers ________ spending and the
government purchases ________ and not ________ goods.
a. net export spending; investment; consumption
b. investment; consumption; investment
c. net export spending; consumption; investment
d. consumption; investment; consumption
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Review Your Understanding
Use the information in the table to answer the questions.
a. At what level of RGDP does the market clear?
b. What is the MPC?
c. Suppose government purchases increase by $500 billion. What
will be the new equilibrium level of real GDP? Use the
multiplier formula to determine
your answer.
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Review Your Understanding
Given the above data what actions might the government
take to move the economy to the full-employment level of
output?
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Recession, Inflation and the Long-Run
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Analysis - Chapter 8 (pp.
226-234)
Unemployment - Chapter 9 (pp. 256-257)
Inflation - Chapter 10 (pp. 280-287)
Learning Objectives:
1. Use the aggregate demand and aggregate supply model to illustrate the
difference between short-run and long-run equilibrium.
2. Use the dynamic aggregate demand and aggregate supply model to analyse
macroeconomic conditions.
3. Understand the difference between demand-pull and cost-push inflation.
4. Explain the quantity theory of money and use it to explain how high rates of
inflation can occur.
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Macroeconomic Equilibrium in the Long Run and
the Short Run
The short-run and the long-run effects of a decrease in aggregate demand
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The Costs of Unemployment
Costs to the economy as a whole:
–
–
–
–
Loss of gross domestic product.
Loss of human capital.
Net drain on the budget.
The opportunity cost of funds directed towards welfare
payments.
Costs to the unemployed:
–
–
–
–
Loss of income.
Loss of skills.
Loss of self esteem.
Unemployment may contribute to family break-ups, health
problems, mental illness, crime and political unrest.
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Costs of Inflation
•
In general, wages rise with inflation. Inflation can, however, affect the
distribution of income. The extent of redistribution depends partly on the
degree to which inflation was anticipated or unanticipated.
• The problem with anticipated inflation:
– Menu costs – the costs to firms of changing prices.
– Risk – particularly for contracts with a ‘time’ element
• The problem with unanticipated inflation:
– There are winners and losers, depending on whether inflation is higher
or lower than anticipated.
– For example: those on fixed incomes, such as aged pensions, will lose
if inflation is higher than anticipated.
– Borrowers may gain and lenders lose when inflation is higher than
anticipated.
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Causes of Inflation
• Monetary growth greater than growth in RGDP
• Demand-pull inflation
― Increases in AD
• Cost-push inflation
― Supply Shocks
―Stagflation: a combination of inflation and recession,
usually resulting from a supply shock.
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The Quantity Theory of Money
– Connecting money and prices: The equation of
exchange. The connection between money and prices is
expressed in the following equation.
Mx V P x Y
– Velocity of money: The average number of times each
dollar in the money supply is used to purchase goods
and services included in GDP.
PxY
V 
M
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Check Your Understanding
a.
b.
c.
d.
According to the assumptions of quantity theory, if the
money supply increases 5% then at full employment
nominal and real GDP would rise by 5%.
nominal GDP would rise by 5%; real GDP would be
unchanged.
nominal GDP would be unchanged; real GDP would rise
by 5%.
neither nominal GDP nor real GDP would change.
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The Quantity Theory of Inflation
– The quantity equation is transformed to:
Growth rate of money supply + growth rate of velocity =
growth rate of the price level + growth rate of real output
– Which we can rearrange as:
Inflation rate = growth rate of money supply + growth rate of
velocity - growth rate of real output
– If Irving Fisher is correct and velocity is constant, then
the growth rate of velocity is zero, so we can rewrite
the equation as:
Inflation rate = growth rate of the money supply – growth
rate of real output
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Check Your Understanding
a.
b.
c.
d.
According to the quantity theory of money, inflation is
caused by
GDP growing faster than the money supply.
GDP growing at the same rate as the money supply.
the money supply growing faster than GDP.
the money supply growing slower than GDP.
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Check Your Understanding
Suppose the money supply is currently growing at 4 %
per year, while real GDP is growing at 2%, calculate the
inflation rate assuming Irving Fisher is correct in his
assumption regarding the velocity of money.
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Macroeconomic Equilibrium in the Long Run and
the Short Run
The short-run and long-run effects of an increase in aggregate demand Demand-pull inflation and a price-wage spiral
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Check Your Understanding
a.
b.
c.
d.
An increase in aggregate demand causes an increase
in ________ only in the short run, but causes an
increase in ________ in both the short run and the
long run.
the price level; real GDP
real GDP; real GDP
real GDP; the price level
the price level; the price level
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A Dynamic AD and AS Model
– We can create a dynamic aggregate demand and
aggregate supply model by making three changes to
the basic model:
1. Potential real GDP increases continually, shifting
the long-run aggregate supply curve to the right.
2. During most years the aggregate demand curve will
be shifting to the right.
3. Except during periods when workers and firms
expect high rates of inflation, the short-run
aggregate supply curve will be shifting to the right.
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A Dynamic AD and AS Model
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Check Your Understanding
The simple static aggregate demand and aggregate supply
model assumes
a. potential real GDP increases continuously.
b. the economy experiences continuing inflation.
c. the economy's aggregate demand curve shifts to the right
in most periods.
d. the economy does not experience long run growth.
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Macroeconomic Equilibrium in the Long Run and
the Short Run
The short-run and long-run effects of a supply shock - Cost-push inflation
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Check Your Understanding
a.
b.
c.
d.
Which of the following is considered a supply shock?
The increasing investment in the economy causing the
capital stock to rise
A decline in wages
An improvement in technology
An unexpected large increase in the price of natural gas
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Supply Shocks and Policy Choices
Policy Options:
1. Do nothing
2. Do something
a.↓AD  ↓INF
but further
↑UNE
b.↑AD  ↓UNE
but further
↑INF
Price Level
SRAS0
A
P0
AD
Y0
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RGDP
298
Fighting Inflation – Reducing AD
Price Level
LRAS
SRAS0
A
P0
AD0
Yf
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RGDP
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Check Your Understanding
a.
b.
c.
d.
Why might the short run aggregate supply curve shift to the
right in the long run, following a decrease in aggregate
demand?
Workers and firms adjust their expectations of wages and prices
downward and they push for higher wages and prices.
Workers and firms adjust their expectations of wages and prices
upward and they accept lower wages and prices.
Workers and firms adjust their expectations of wages and prices
upward and they push for higher wages and prices.
Workers and firms adjust their expectations of wages and prices
downward and they accept lower wages and prices.
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Review Your Understanding
The level of real GDP in the long run is called
a. potential GDP.
b. frictional GDP.
c. low capacity GDP.
d. short run GDP.
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Review Your Understanding
Because of a supply shock, in the short run
a. the aggregate supply curve shifts to the left.
b. equilibrium real GDP rises.
c. unemployment falls.
d. the price level falls.
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Review Your Understanding
Which of the following is NOT an assumption made by the
dynamic model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply?
a. Aggregate demand shifts to the right during most periods.
b. Aggregate supply shifts to the right except during periods
when workers and firms expect higher wages.
c. Aggregate demand and potential real GDP decrease
continuously.
d. Potential real GDP increases continuously.
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Review Your Understanding
Which of the following can cause cost-push inflation if the
economy is currently in equilibrium at full-employment
GDP?
a. A decrease in personal income tax rates, which increases
after tax income
b. A flood which destroyed much of the country's crops
c. An increase in the size of the labour force
d. An increase in the capital stock in the country
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304
Review Your Understanding
If a supply shock occurs in the economy, what is the likely
impact for inflation and unemployment?
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305
Review Your Understanding
What are the policy options available to the government to
combat a supply shock and what are the costs of each policy
option?
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306
Review Your Understanding
Illustrate and explain the implications for the
inflation/unemployment trade-off if we persist in undertaking
expansionary policy in an attempt to reduce the
unemployment rate below the natural rate of unemployment.
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Economic Development and Growth
Economic Growth, the Financial System and Business Cycles Chapter 5 (pp. 110-117)
Long-Run Economic Growth: Sources and Policies - Chapter 6
Learning Objectives:
1. Explain the basic idea of how a market system works.
2. Understand why property rights are necessary for a well-functioning economy.
3. Discuss the importance of economic growth and its impact on living
standards.
4. Describe the trends in economic growth in the world.
5. Use the economic growth model to explain why economic growth rates differ
between countries.
6. Discuss why many poor countries have not experienced rapid economic
growth.
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Long-Run Economic Growth is the Key to Rising
Living Standards
– Long-run economic growth: The process by which
rising productivity increases the average standard of
living.
– Real GDP per capita is used to measure changing
living standards over time.
Real GDP
Real GDP per capita =
population
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Calculating Economic Growth Rates
Recall: economic growth is calculated using the following
equation:
Real GDP Current - Real GDP Previous
Economic Growth 
x 100
Real GDPPrevious
– For longer periods we look at ‘average annual growth rates’.
Note: the long-term could be 50 or 100 years or more.
– An approximation of average annual growth for shorter
periods is a simple average.
3.1% + 2.4% + 3.2%
= 2.9%
3
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Check Your Understanding
Use the table below to answer the following questions:
– Calculate the growth rate of real GDP for each year from
2004 – 2007.
– Calculate the average annual growth rate over the
same period.
Year
Real GDP, $ (billions in 2004 prices)
2004
790
2005
810
2006
825
2007
850
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Calculating Economic Growth Rates and the Rule
of 70
– One way to judge how rapidly real GDP per person is
growing is to calculate the number of years it would
take to double.
70
Number of years to double =
Growth rate
– This rule shows small differences in growth compound
over time.
– This leads to large differences in the number of years it
takes for real GDP to double.
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Check Your Understanding
The rule of 70 states that
a.
the number of years it takes an economy to double is
the growth rate times 70.
b. the number of years it takes an economy to double is
70 divided by the growth rate.
c. it takes an economy 70 years to double in size.
d. the number of years it takes an economy to double is
the growth rate divided by 70.
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Check Your Understanding
Use the table below to answer the following questions:
a. How long will it take China to double its real GDP?
b. How long will it take the UK to double its real GDP?
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GDP growth (annual %)
China
UK
2004
10.1
2.7
2005
10.7
2.5
2006
10.4
2.8
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Economic Growth Over Time Around the World
Average annual growth rates for the world economy
Source: J. Bradford DeLong (1998), Estimating World GDP, One Million B.C. – Present, working paper,
University of California, Berkley.
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Economic Growth Over Time Around the World
Why do growth rates matter?
• An economy that grows too slowly fails to raise living
standards.
• In the 1980s and 1990s, a small group of Asian
countries, such as Taiwan and Singapore, achieved high
rates of growth. These are sometimes referred to as the
newly industrialising countries.
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Economic Growth Over Time Around the World
GDP per capita, 2007
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What Determines How Fast Economies Grow?
– Labour productivity: The quantity of goods and
services that can be produced by one worker or by one
hour of work. Two key factors determine labour
productivity.
1. Increases in Capital per Hour Worked
– Capital: Manufactured goods that are used to
produce other goods and services; examples are
computers, factory buildings, and machine tools.
– Human capital: The accumulated knowledge and
skills that workers acquire from education and
training, or from their life experiences.
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What Determines How Fast Economies Grow?
2. Technological Change: Change in the ability of a firm to
produce a given level of output with a given quantity of
inputs.
Accumulating more inputs such as labour, capital, and
raw materials will not ensure that an economy
experiences economic growth unless technological
change also occurs.
Three main sources of technological change:
–Better machinery and equipment.
–Increases in human capital.
–Better means of organising and managing production.
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What Determines How Fast Economies Grow?
– Which is more important for economic growth: More
capital or technological change?
– Technological change is the key to sustaining
economic growth.
– Endogenous growth theory: a model of long-run
economic growth that emphasises that technological
change is influenced by economic incentives, and so is
determined by the working of the market system.
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Check Your Understanding
Endogenous growth theory
a. states that the rate of technological change is caused by
economic incentives.
b. does not adequately explain the factors that determine
productivity.
c. states that the rate of technological change is unaffected
by economic incentives.
d. states that the rate of technological change is determined
outside the working of the market system.
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321
Check Your Understanding
Which of the following will result in an increase in
labour productivity?
a.
A decline in the capital stock per hour worked
b.
A decline in the amount of human capital per worker
c.
An increase in technology
d.
A decrease in the number of people attending
institutions of higher education
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The Market System and Economic Growth
– Free Market: A market with few government restrictions on how
a good or service can be produced or sold, or on how a factor of
production can be employed.
– Adam Smith argued the benefits of a free market system in his
famous book – The Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
(published in 1776).
– Smith assumed individuals act in a rational, self-interested way.
– If not restricted by government, then firms would be led by the
invisible hand of the market to provide consumers with what
they wanted.
– The price mechanism in the free market leads producers to
change supply in accordance with consumer demand.
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Property Rights
– Private property rights provide the legal basis of a free
market system.
– Property rights: The rights individuals or firms have to
the exclusive use of their property, including the right
to buy or sell it.
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Check Your Understanding
A well established and legally enforced system of
property rights
a. encourages investment growth but reduces
entrepreneurial activity.
b. reduces economic efficiency which reduces the rate of
economic growth.
c. encourages economic growth by increasing the
incentive to be innovative.
d. discourages economic growth by discouraging
innovation.
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What Determines How Fast Economies Grow?
–
Government policy can increase the accumulation of knowledge
and capital in three ways:
1. Protecting intellectual property rights with patents and
copyrights.
Patent: the exclusive right to a product for a period of time
from the date the product was invented.
2. Subsidising research and development.
3. Subsidising education.
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Check Your Understanding
What is the ultimate purpose of patents and
copyrights?
a. To provide owners with large profit forever.
b. To encourage the expenditure of funds on research and
development to create new products.
c. To protect firms from being taken advantage of by
producing firms.
d. To do all of these things.
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What Determines How Fast Economies Grow?
Joseph Schumpeter and Creative Destruction.
– To Schumpeter, the entrepreneur is central to economic
growth:
–The function of entrepreneurs is to reform or revolutionise
the pattern of production by exploiting an invention or,
more generally, an untried technological possibility for
producing new commodities or producing an old one in a
new way.
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Why Isn’t the Whole World Rich?
– ‘Catch Up’: the prediction that the level of
GDP per
capita in poor countries will grow faster than in rich
countries.
– Some poorer countries have experienced rapid growth
rates, but many have not.
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Why Isn’t the Whole World Rich?
Figure 7.8 The rule of law and growth
Source: Based on David Dollar and Aart Kraay (2000), Property Rights, Political Rights, and the Development
of Poor Countries in the Post-Colonial Period, World Bank Development Research Group Working Paper, October
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Why Isn’t the Whole World Rich?
There is no one answer to the question as to why all countries do
not experience economic growth.
Most economists identify 5 key factors:
1. Failure to enforce the rule of law:
• Rule of Law: the ability of a government to enforce the
laws of a country, particularly with respect to
protecting private property and enforcing contracts.
2. Wars and revolutions:
• Many countries that were poor in 1960 have experienced
extended periods of violent changes of government
during the years since. Eg. Afghanistan, Angola and
Ethiopia.
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Why Isn’t the Whole World Rich?
3. Poor public education and health:
•
Many low-income countries have weak public school
systems, so many workers are unable to read and write.
People who are sick work less, and are less productive
when they do work.
4. Slow technological development:
•
The economic growth model shows the importance of
technological change.
5. Low rates of saving and investment:
•
The low savings rates in developing countries contribute to a
vicious cycle of poverty.
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Check Your Understanding
Which of the following is a reason why low income
countries might experience economic growth?
a. The country has endured extended periods of war.
b. The country fails to enforce a rule of law.
c. The country has a high rate of savings and investment.
d. The country suffers from poor health infrastructures.
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Check Your Understanding
Globalisation is defined as the process of countries
becoming ________ open to foreign trade and
________ open to foreign investment.
a.
less; less
b. more; less
c.
more; more
d. less; more
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Globalisation
The benefits of globalisation:
– Foreign Direct Investment: The purchase or building
by a corporation of a facility in a foreign country.
–Foreign Portfolio Investment: The purchase by an
individual or firm of stock or bonds issued in another
country.
–Globalisation: The process of countries becoming more
open to foreign trade and investment.
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Globalisation
Criticisms of Globalisation
– Globalisation undermines distinctive cultures.
– Multi-national firms exploit low wages and poor
health, safety and environmental regulations in the
developing world.
– Economic growth contributes to global warming,
deforestation and other environmental problems.
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REVISION OF MODULES 1, 2 & 3
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