Transcript A Green economy is… - Bulgaria Economic Forum

Green Markets and the Black Sea Region
Regional Opportunities and Concerns from a
Trade and Investment Perspective
Robert Hamwey
Trade, Environment, Climate Change and
Sustainable Development Branch
Sustainable development is not automatic…
Social Development
Environmental Sustainability
Economy
UNCTAD examines ways to make the trade
work for sustainable development
We can build a green economy sector by
sector...
Social Development
Environmental Sustainability
Green Economy
Key green sectors we focus on…
Social Development
Environmental Sustainability
Green Economy
A Green economy is…
• Driven by both domestic and foreign demand for green
goods and services, including:
– more efficient and low-carbon energy systems
– organic food
– ecotourism
– solid waste and water recycling
– environmental consulting
– emerging categories that include green construction,
sustainable harvested timber products, electric bicycles
and hybrid cars
– etc.
Green economy transition is already underway…
• Number of firms with ISO 14001 environmental
management certification rose from under 40,000 in
2000 to over 200,000 in 2009; and over 40 per cent of
registered firms are in transition/developing countries.
• Over 2,000 corporations in over 90 countries now
practice Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR); up
from virtually zero at the time of the 1992 Rio Summit.
• Sales of Fair Trade products are on the rise. In 2008,
consumers worldwide spent $ 5 billion on Fairtrade
certified products, a major Fair Trade label, almost
double the figure of the previous year.
Green economy transition is already underway…
• Regulations and standards, including
private
standards, are prevalent in a greening global
economy.
• Green regulations and standards apply not only to
green products, but more broadly to all goods and
services through efforts to integrate green production,
packaging, transportation, distribution and recycling
into global
supply chains.
Drivers of a Green economy …
National policy
measures
Consumer / Producer
preferences
Green economy market opportunities...
• Employment Can generate net jobs, including for the
poor, to reduce poverty, and for women and youth.
• Diversification Can open business opportunities in
new industrial and commercial sectors.
• Export growth Can increase exports of green
products and services.
• Technology transfer Investment by multinationals in
foreign production sites can transfer technologies.
Green economy market opportunities...
Global/Regional Market
National/Regional Market
Green economy in national/regional markets...
•
•
•
•
•
Rural electrification
Waste management and Recycling
Water purification
Green construction
etc.
Green economy in regional/global markets...
•
•
•
•
•
•
Green technologies
Biofuels
Organic agriculture
Ecotourism
Biotrade products
etc.
Green tech. exports by Black Sea countries ...
• Some renewable energy technology exports such as
solar panels and wind turbines, and energy efficient
products such as compact fluorescent lamps.
• green technologies often produced in developed
countries using intermediate inputs originating from a
wide variety of transition/developing countries that are
integrated in global supply chains.
• Trade in intermediate goods, which accounts for about
40 percent of world merchandise trade, is thus an
important entry point for Black Sea countries to supply
green markets.
Example: Green tech.
supply chains: Wind
power
• Green tech. supply
chains are elaborate.
• They offer a wide
range of entry points
for third party
suppliers from Black
Sea countries.
Green economy
…not just about high tech. goods
• Businesses in Black Sea countries continue to build their
export capacities ‘lower tech’ green products and
services.
• These product include biofuels, organic food and
beverages, natural fibres and cosmetics, biotrade
products, sustainably harvested timber and fisheries
products, and green services such as ecotourism.
• Not yet major exports, but in each of these sectors Black
Sea country exports are experiencing sharp growth,
generating employment, advancing rural development
and protecting the environment.
Biofuel exports by transition/developing
countries ...
• Biofuel production and export is growing rapidly and
biofuels have become a growing export commodity for
some transition/developing countries.
• Today, transition/developing countries as a group
account for over 40 per cent of world bioethanol
production and over 15 per cent of biodiesel production.
• Top producers are Brazil, China, India, Colombia,
Republic of Korea, Turkey, Thailand, Malaysia and
Ukraine.
Organic exports by transition/developing
countries ...
• The global market for organic food and beverage products
reached $60 billion in 2010; a more than three-fold
expansion from 2000 levels. At a growth rate is 13 % per
year, this figure is projected to climb to $105 billion by
2015.
• The global market for organic cotton climbed to over $5
billion in 2010. Growth rate is 20 % per year.
• Organic farming is practiced on 37 million hectares in 160
countries; a nearly four-fold increase over the past decade.
Organic exports by transition/developing
countries ...
• Increases in organic farmland are occurring predominantly
in transition/developing countries to respond to growth in
demand in Northern markets.
• About 75 percent of the more than 1.8 million producers
worldwide are farmers in over 110 developing countries,
with the largest numbers in India, Uganda, Mexico,
Ethiopia, Tanzania, Peru, Turkey and Burkina Faso.
• Romania and Bulgaria have dramatically increased
production and export in recent years, mostly to EU market.
Ecotourism exports by transition/developing
countries ...
• Green services represent additional export opportunities
for developing countries.
• Ecotourism is projected to capture 25% of global tourism
revenues in 2012, with international tourists spending
$240 billion in ecotourism destinations.
• Recently, Black Sea ecotourism has seen increasing
promotion and sales.
• A top source of employment generation in rural
communities of transition/developing countries, and
providing decent employment to women and youth.
Biotrade exports by transition/developing
countries ...
• Consumer preferences for natural oils, waxes, fats and
herbs used in cosmetics are providing new rural
community income opportunities in developing countries.
• The organic cosmetics market, valued at $8 billion in
2009 and accounting for 2% of total cosmetic sales, is
projected to double by 2017, raising the market share to
4 %. Already the market share of natural cosmetics is
approaching 10% in many developed country markets.
• These and other biotrade products are important exports
for rural communities in many transition/developing
countries.
Opportunities for Black Sea countries
• Can countries identify their potential strengths in producing
and exporting green products ?
– It would be nice to know which green products a country
is best positioned to produce and export competitively?
– UNCTAD’s product space methodology can help
Product Space Maps*
• A map of all ‘products’ that a country exports (circular
nodes –  
 ).
• Products the country produces/exports competetively are
readily identified (square nodes –   ).
• Products in close proximity are related – if one is
competitively produced the other can be also.
* Hidalgo and Hausmann, 2009.
Product Space Maps*
Uses concept of Revealed Comparative Advantage…
X Ai
RCA 
* Hidalgo and Hausmann, 2009.
X Wi
 j X Aj
 j X Wj
1
Product Space Map (of a country)
We
Each
can country
highlight
Environmental
has a unique
technologies
set of
comparative
advantages
Product Space Map: Details
D
B
A
E
C
F
Promising prospect
Why ?
D
B
valves
Same inputs
Same producer services
Same skills/workers
Same distribution network
Same markets
A
E
Solar water
heaters
pipes
C
F
Also supported by:
Similar policy framework
Promising
prospect
Similar
institutional support
Green Goods
Which green goods ???
We can choose any green goods we want
We consider the SAMPLE CORE LIST OF
ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS proposed in
Annex II of the CTESS Chairperson’s Report
(WTO doc. TN/TE/20 of 21 April 2011)
Selected Green Goods
SITC4 HS2002 SITC4
Sanitary ware, and parts thereof, … of iron,
6975
7324 steel, copper or aluminum
7148 8410/11 Turbines
Refrigerating equipment (electric or other), other
7414
8418 than household-type…
7162
8502 Electric generating sets
Diodes… and semiconductor devices (including
7763
8541 photovoltaic cells…
Optical fibres... prisms, mirrors and other optical
8841
9001 elements…
Instruments and apparatus for physical or
8744
9027 chemical analysis …
7782
8539 Electric filament lamps and discharge lamps
Selected green product groups from TN/TE/20
Category
Waste management
Energy efficiency
Renewable energy
Renewable energy
Renewable energy
Renewable energy
Environmental
analysis
Energy efficiency
Product Space Map: Black Sea Countries (2010)
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Georgia
Greece
Moldova
Romania
Russian Federation
Serbia
Turkey
Ukraine
Product Space Map: Black Sea Countries (2010)
Trade Data: Black Sea Countries
USD million
Selected green exports of Black Sea region
1200
300
1000
250
Optical Eqpt
Ethanol
Lamps
Generating sets
Plaiting Materials
Cooking Stoves
Sanitation Eqpt
Refridg. Eqpt
Sci Meas Eqpt
Turbines
Diodes
800
200
600
150
400
100
200
50
00
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
Trade Data: Black Sea Countries
USD million
Selected green exports of Black Sea region
1200
1000
Ethanol
800
Generating sets
600
Cooking Stoves
Refridg. Eqpt
400
Turbines
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Trade Data: Black Sea Countries (2007-2011)
Annual export growth for Black Sea region (% )
Total Trade
Turbines
Sci Meas Eqpt
Sanitation Eqpt
Refridg. Eqpt
Plaiting Materials
Optical Eqpt
Lamps
Generating sets
Ethanol
Diodes
Cooking Stoves
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Investment Data: Black Sea Countries
USD billion
FDI inflows
14
12
10
Albania
8
Armenia
6
Azerbaijan
4
Bulgaria
2
Georgia
0
-2
-4
-6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Greece
Investment Data: Black Sea Countries
USD billion
FDI inflows
160
140
Romania
120
Russian Federation
100
Serbia
80
Turkey
60
Ukraine
40
Total
20
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Investment Data: World regions
USD billion
FDI inflows
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Developing economies
Transition economies
Developing economies: Africa
Developing economies: America
Developing economies: Asia
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Uganda
Vietnam
Brazil
Green Product Space Map:
Can produce for any country
Main point
Product Space Maps can serve as a
powerful scoping tool to assess national
potential to diversify economic
production into green goods.
We use them to support our technical
cooperation projects.
Thank you for your attention
[email protected]
Trade, Environment, Climate
Change and Sustainable
Development Branch