Transcript geography, conflict and poverty in nigeria.

GEOGRAPHY, CONFLICT
AND POVERTY IN NIGERIA.
By
OLANIRAN, Hezekiah Daramola
Department of Geography
Faculty of the Social Sciences
University of Ibadan.
August, 2011.
INTRODUCTION
Incidence of ethno-religious
conflict is on the rise in
Nigeria.
 Between 1996-2011, 88 cases of
ethno-religious conflict had
been reported.
Incidence of poverty is getting
astronomically high in
Nigeria. About 54.4% of the
population are poor (NBS,2004).

OBJECTIVES
The specific objectives are;
 To examine trends in ethno-religious
conflict in Nigeria.
 To examine trends in poverty in
Nigeria.
 To determine the relationship between
poverty and conflict and;
 To
examines the role plays by
geography in occurrence of poverty and
conflict.
THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS
Basic theories that explain the
relationship
between
ethnicity,
conflict, geography and poverty are:
1. Primordialist theory
2. Instrumentalist theory
3. Constructivist theory.
4. Theory of opportunity cost (Collier
and Hoeffler, 1998.
5. The Chicago School of thought.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Conflict has been found to be related to:
 Long legacy of oppression based on caste
and ethnicity (Bray et al, 2003; Sengupita,
2005).
 Landlessness
or relative deprivation
(Deraniyagala, 2005; Murshed and Gate,
2005)
 Poverty
and
Underdevelopment
(Gersony,2003; Thapa and Sijapati,2004).
 Poverty,
weak state capacity and
geographical conditions (Fearon and
Laitin, 2003).
 Poverty and geographical location (Do and
Iyer, 2009)
THE GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY
NIGERIA
OF
Located in the tropics (Lat 10:00 N
and Long 8:00E.
 Total land area= 923,768 sq km
 Population = 140 million (NPC, 2006).
 Population Density= 166.0 per sq km.

THE GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY
NIGERIA CONTD.
 Ethnic
OF
group: Hausa/Fulani=29%,
Yoruba=21%, Ibo=18%.
 Religion: Muslim=50%,
Christian=40%, Traditional=10%
 GDP US$= 1152.82 (2009)
 HDI= 0.436 (2010) Compare to
Norway (0.954),US (0.917), South
Africa (0.581).
DATA SOURCES
Data were gathered from various sources for
this study;
 For
measurement of ethno-religious
conflict, the author scoop data from
newspaper reports, Magazine, internet
publications, journal article and other
relevant unpublished materials.
 Data on socio-economic data were obtained
from Central Bank annual reports (2005&
2009), National Bureau of Statistics (2005
& 2009), Federal Ministry of finance,
National Population Commission and
Nigeria Metrological Authority
VARIABLES USED
Model 1: Y= Ethno-religious conflict,
Xi= Total Population.
Model 2= Y= Ethno-religious conflict.
X1= Area sq km, X2=Total Pop, X3=
Poverty Headcount X4= Total
Revenue X5= Distance from the coast,
X6 =Major religion, X7= Distance to
Abuja, X8= GDP, and X9= Total
Expenditure.
VARIABLES USED CONTD.
Model 3 & 4: Y= Poverty Headcount
Xi= Area sq km, X2= Total Pop,
X3= Unemployment rate, X4= Total
Revenue, X5= Dist. From Coast,
X6= Major religion, X7= Dist. To
Abuja, X8= GDP X9= Total
Expenditure, X10=HDI.
Model 4 has Poverty Headcount as X9.
METHOD OF ANALYSIS
Method of regression analysis was
principally employed in the analysis of
the data. Regression model is given as;
Y= a + b1x1 + b2x2………bnxn + e
Where;
Y= Dependent variable
a= Constant
b= Coefficients of variable factor
x= Explanatory variable
e= error term.
DISCUSSION ON DATA 1
Trends in incidence of poverty in Nigeria
LEVELS
1980
1985
1992
1996
2004
NATIONAL
27.2
46.3
42.7
65.6
54.4
Urban
17.2
37.6
37.5
58.2
43.2
Rural
28.3
57.4
46.0
69.3
63.3
SS
13.2
45.7
40.8
58.2
55.1
SE
12.9
30.4
41.0
53.5
26.7
SW
13.4
38.6
45.1
60.9
43.0
NC
32.2
50.8
46.0
64.7
67.0
NE
35.6
54.9
54.0
70.1
72.2
NW
37.7
52.1
36.5
77.2
71.2
ZONE
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
DISCUSSION ON DATA 2
HDI, HPI and Ethno-religious conflict by regions.
GEO-POL
ZONE
HDI 2008
HPI 2008
SS
0.573
34.65
12
SE
0.471
44.15
04
SW
0.523
48.90
21
NC
0.490
21.50
18
NE
0.332
26.07
19
NW
0.420
26.61
14
TOTAL
Source: HDR and Personal Survey.
ETHNOCONFLIT
1996-2011
88
RESULT OF REGRESSION
MODELS AND DISCUSSION
Model 1: (Stepwise
regression):
Ethno-religious conflict and
Total population.
R = 0.478
R2 = 0.228
P= 0.016
RESULT OF REGRESSION
.MODELS CONTD.
Model 2: (Simple linear regression);
Y= Ethno-religious conflict
R= 0.765
R2= 0.585
P= 0.004
Important coefficient
TOPOP= 0.671 P=0.000
PHCOUNT=0.445 P=0.020
TOREV =2.749, P=0.48
DISTCOAST= 0.700 p=0.012
RESULT OF REGRESSION .MODELS
CONTD.
Model 3: (Simple linear regression)
Y=Poverty Headcount
R=0.712
R2+0.506
P= 0.022
Important Beta
AREASQKM =0.466 P=0.031
UNEMPLOYRT =0.610 P= 0.007
GDP= 0.263 P=0.443
TOEXP 3.311 P= 0.008
RESULT OF REGRESSION
.MODELS CONTD.
Model 4; (Simple linear regression)
Y= HDI
R= 0.791
R2= 0.625
P=0.001
Important Beta
TOPOP =0.303 P= 0.49
GDP = 0.713 P= 0.008
CONCLUSION




The result of our various models shows that
ethno-religious conflict is related to some
geographical variables, however they are not
significant except distance from the coast in
model 2.
Models show a relationship between ethnoreligious conflict and poverty.
Our Models reinforce the structural perspective
on poverty.
Conflict in Nigeria is largely caused by religion as
been made to believe. It is both political and
economical.
RECOMENDATION
Macroeconomic policy that will reduce
poverty is needed.
 Politicians should stop using religion and
ethnicity for achieving political end.
 Rule law should entrenched.
 Religious bigotry need to be de-emphasized.
 Utterances that are capable of cause tension
and conflict should be avoided and
punished.
 Maximum security should be provided in
areas that are prone to conflict and security
personnel should avoid partisanship.

THANK YOU.