Transcript COP14 Presentation - SUPERSLR - Stanford University`s Project on

Possible Consequences of an Increase
in Tropical Cyclone Intensity on
Japanese Port Infrastructure and
Operations
Miguel Esteban
Research Fellow
Kyoto University
Japan
Lecture as part of the course:
Engineering and Policy Responses to Climate Change Impacts on Seaports
Overview
1. Brief introduction of myself
2. Introduction to tropical cyclones and how they are
affected by climate change
3. Outline of the methodology used to compute increase
in size of tropical cyclone
4. Types of damage
4.1. Indirect damage (downtime)
4.2. Direct damage (destruction of infrastructure)
5. Indirect damage and its significance on the economy
of Japan
6. Direct damage to breakwaters (effect of sea level rise)
7. Conclusions
General Info about Myself
• I have two nationalities (British, Spanish)
• Lived in England (Liverpool, Reading) and
Spain, Belgium, Switzerland and Japan (6
years)
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1996-2000 - M. Eng. in Civil Eng. (Bristol Uni.)
2001-2004 – Worked as an Engineer
2004-2007 – PhD at Yokohama Uni. (Japan)
2007-2009 – Post-Doc at the United Nations
University (Work I will present today)
• Oct 2009 – Kyoto University (1 week!)
Work –Coastal Engineer
• 4 Years experience as a
Graduate Engineer (20012004)
• JacobsGIBB (International
Consultants, Coastal Dept.)
• High-Point Rendel
(Specialist Coastal
Engineering Consultants)
Worked also as a Tunneling
Engineer for 2 years
CERN – European Centre for
Nuclear Research
• Was an underground work inspector building
new Caverns for CERN
• These are the installations shown in the Film
Angels & Demons
Doctors Degree
• Yokohama National University
• Supervisor: Prof. Tomoya Shibayama
“Structural and Financial Risk Assessment of
Caisson Breakwaters Against Wind Waves and
Tsunami Attack”
• Methodology:
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
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Lab. Experiments,
Computer Simulation,
Analysis of Real Failures
• Symposiums & Field Trips:

Tanzania, Sri Lanka.
Lab. Experiments
What are tropical cyclones?
• 3 different names:

Hurricanes (America)

Cyclones (Indian Ocean)

Typhoons (Asia-Pacific)
• Same physical phenomena
• Central eye surrounded by rain
bands
• High winds, low pressure centre, thunderstorms,
heavy rain
• storm surge (e.g. Bangladesh), wind damage,
landslides, flooding, high waves
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How do tropical cyclones
originate?
• Produced by areas of high sea temperatures
(hence affected by an increase in surface sea
temperature)
• Primary energy source is the release of the heat
of condensation from water
vapour condensing at high altitudes
• Originate just north or south of equator (they
need the Coriolis force to form, and this is not
present at equator)
• (Coriolis force is a force exerted due to the
earth’s rotation)
Tropical Cyclones in Asia
• Worst affected areas… Philippines, Taiwan,
Japan, China, Korea, Bangladesh, India,
Vietnam…
• Maybe others in future… Iran, Brazil?
11
Rationale
• One of the fears of global warming is
that it could result in an increase in the
frequency and intensity of typhoons due
to the warming of sea temperature
(Nordhaus 2006).
• 8 of the 10 most costliest natural
disasters in Asia (1980-2008) were due to
typhoons in Japan (Munich Re.)
• Stern Report highlights generally the
dangers to the economy
12
Predicting Climate Change
Predicting the
future…
How real are
our
predictions?
Are we modern
day witches?
13
Knowledge about future and
typhoons (I)
• 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
States that there is a general agreement that tropical
cyclones are likely to increase in intensity, there is yet no
consensus on the future frequency of these events.
• Typhoons are believed to have a 30-40 year cycle
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Strongest typhoons in Western Pacific history
Tip
870 mbar 1979
Gary
872 mbar 1992
Ivan
872 mbar 1997
Joan
872 mbar 1997
Keith
872 mbar 1997
Zeb
872 mbar 1998
June
875 mbar 1975
Ida
877 mbar 1958
Nora
877 mbar 1973
Rita
878 mbar 1978
Yvette 878 mbar 1992
Damrey 878 mbar 2000
•
CANNOT SAY ANY EVENT UP TO NOW HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY
CLIMATE CHANGE (Katrina had NOTHING to do with Climate Change)
Knowledge about future and
typhoons (II)
• Pielke et al. (2006) “Normalised Hurricane
Damage in the United States, 1900-2005”
Knowledge about future and
typhoons (III)
• Damage is increasing, but we occupy more of
the planet each day.
• Typhoon formation is influenced by surface sea
water temperature (0.7 degrees 20th century)
• Simulations by of Knutson and Tuleya (2004).
These authors carried out 1300 five-day
idealized simulations using a high-resolution
version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (GFDL) R30 hurricane prediction
system. Conclusion: typhoons to get stronger.
• It is crucial to understand assumptions on
which the present model was built
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Assumptions
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Tropical cyclone tracks will not change in the
future.
The frequency and seasonal distribution of
tropical cyclones will not change in the future.
There is a general relationship between the
maximum sustained wind speed and the size
of the tropical cyclone.
Any wind which is higher than 30 knots (55.56
km/h) will generally lead to a precautionary
cessation of many human activities.
The topography and population distribution of
the target country (in this case Japan) will not
change in the future.
Methodology I
• Monte Carlo
Simulation
• Computer program
randomly
simulates one full
year of typhoons in
2085
• Maximum wind
speed and area are
altered
Methodology (V) –Change typhoon
size
• Maximum wind
speed and area
are altered
R1 goes to R2
(R30=30 knot radius)
R3 goes to R4
(R50=50 knot radius)
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Methodology (III) – Expected
increase in wind intensity
• Knutson and Tuleya
(2004) give
probability
distribution functions
of typhoon intensity
in 2085
• Basically we change
the size of historical
typhoons according
to the shift in the
probability
distribution function
If maximum winds are
stronger (at the centre)
typhoon is usually
bigger
200
150
100
50
0
0.00
R30 = 46.744 + 2.168 Wmax
200.00 400.00 600.00
Mean radius of 30 knot winds (km)
• Not well understood
• Rx = bo + b1 Wmax
• Two scenarios
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A: low correlation (b1
=1)
B: expected correlation
(b1 =2)
R50 = - 81.345 + 2.099 Wmax
Maximum sustained wind
speeds (knots)
Maximum sustained wind
speeds (knots)
Method. IV - Probability
Distributions of Wind in 2085
150
100
50
0
0.00
100.00 200.00 300.00
Mean radius of 50 knot winds (km)
Types of Typhoon Damage
• Direct Damage: Physical destruction
caused by the typhoons (e.g. houses
destroyed, consequences of floods, etc)
• Indirect Damage: Time Loss during the
passage of a typhoon (factories have to
close, workers stay at home, provisional
measures put in place, etc).
The importance of wind speeds
• Assume that wind
speed of 30 knots or
higher leads to the
precautionary stop of
many human
activities
• Ports, airports, trains,
etc
• Map illustrates the
affected area for the
life of typhoon
Tokage (2004)
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Port Downtime... Why is it
important?
• PORT DOWNTIME: number of hours that
a port has to close due to high winds
• This downtime causes disruption to the
economy of a country (time is money)
• The Port Designer’s Handbook
recommends limits for oil tankers of
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between 20 and 30 knots for berthing
of up to 40 knots for loading and unloading
of 55 knots before vessel should leave port
Indirect Damage: Port Downtime
in Japan
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Typhoons will become bigger and hence port
downtime will increase
More “typhoon grade” storms will reach
Japan in the future
Seasonal differences in the
Increase in Port Downtime
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50 knot no climate
change
50 knot climate
change
30 knot no climate
change
De
c
No
v
Oc
t
Sep
Au
g
Jul
Jun
Ma
y
Ap
r
Ma
r
Feb
30 knot climate
change
Jan
No. hours
PORT OF NAHA (OKINAWA)
Month
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50 knot no climate
change
50 knot climate
change
30 knot no climate
change
Month
De
c
No
v
Oc
t
Sep
Au
g
Jul
Jun
Ma
y
Ap
r
Ma
r
Feb
30 knot climate
change
Jan
No. hours
PORT OF YOKOHAMA
Relation between GDP and RPCS
9.6
9.4
9.2
9
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.2
8
1970
GDP (Ln) trillion
yen
Real Port Capital Stock
(Ln) trillion yen
• Direct correlation between total capital
expenditure in Port Infrastructure
(RPCS) and the growth in Japanese GDP
(Kawakami and Doi 2004).
1980
1990
2000
Year
Growth in RPCS in Japan, 1990
Prices in trillion yen (Ln)
13.2
13.0
12.8
12.6
12.4
12.2
12.0
11.8
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Growth in GDP in Japan, 1990
Prices in trillion yen (Ln)
Extra required Port Infrastructure
Expenditure due to climate change
Required additional Real
Port Capital Stock
(billion yen)
• 4 Scenarios, depending on rate of economic growth (1 or
2%) and the relationship between maximum wind speed
and typhoon area
• 30.6 and 127.9 billion additional Yen required to be
invested by the year 2085 to compensate against
increase in downtime
• Failure to spend this money could reduce GDP by
between 1.5 and 3.4% by 2085.
150
Scenario A1
100
Scenario A2
50
Scenario B1
0
1985
Scenario B2
2035
Year
2085
Expected GDP
Loss in Japan due to downtime in
OTHER sectors in the economy
• Japanese GDP could be 0.15% lower in the year 2085 due
to downtime caused by 30 mph winds (based on 1990
GDP figures)
• ~$60 USD per capita per year in current economic terms
Increase in Downtime in the
Philippines
• In this case the north of the country is mostly
affected (Island of Luzon)
• Luzon concentrates most of the economic
activity (Manila is situated in Luzon)
Increase in Downtime in Taiwan
2009
2085
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Direct Damage and Port
Infrastructure
• Tropical cyclones
generate high waves
that can destroy port
infrastructure
• The key protective
elements in ports are
breakwaters
• Very expensive
structures that can
be damaged by high
wave attack
Design of Breakwaters
• Breakwaters are designed against an
expected type of wave attack.
• Typically an engineer will find from the
historical records the worst type of wave
for the last 50 years and design the
breakwater accordingly (50 year return
period wave).
• Assumptions:


Wave Climate will not change
Sea Level will be constant
Overboard is of crucial importance
in breakwater design
• Overboard: distance from sea level to
top of the breakwater
Concrete
Shell
Sand fill
b) Vertical Breakwater
Inner
Chamber
b) Perforated Vertical
Breakwater
Armour
Blocks
c)Composite Breakwater
Toe
Protection
Armour
Foundation
Material
d) Armoured Caisson
Breakwater
Parameters used by the Goda
Formula
• Most popular formula to design caisson
type breakwaters
• Overboard parameter is very important
p1
η*
Overboard
h’
d
h
pu
p2
p3
Distribution of wave pressure on an upright section of
a vertical breakwater
Sea Level is Rising….
• Average sea levels are increasing
• IPCC quotes rises between 18-59cm
(some as high as 0.8m)
Increased Probability of Failure
due to Sea Level Rise
• A decrease in overboard would result in
higher forces exerted by waves on the
caisson.
• Okayasu & Sakai (2006) assumed
constant sea level rise during next 40
years.
• Probability of failure would increase by
over 50% (using a reliability design
method) by 2050
Economic Cost of Sea Level Rise
• Cost of building new
breakwaters in Japan
would increase by
between 0.5 and 2.3%
as a result of Sea
Level Rise
• A breakwater already
constructed cannot
be expected to
survive its design life
(typically 50 years)
But what about an increase in
tropical cyclone intensity?
• Effect of this and sea level rise has still not
been investigated
• Future work for me…
• It is likely that effect can cause dramatic
future damage to breakwaters
Is this the whole picture?
• Well, not quite…
• Tropical cyclones follow 30-40 years
cycles but we only have satellite since
1978.
• Records go back to the 19th Century, but
quality of data is not so good…
• We are not sure what will happen with
frequency and the paths of typhoons
Typhoon Gonu –It could have
been a big disaster• June 5th 2007 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Gonu, the
most intense cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea.
Winds 260 km/h
• June 7th made landfall in Iran – downgraded to
cyclonic storm ~80 km/hr
But why am I talking about
cyclone Gonu?
• Unprecedented in
the 20th Century
• 19th Century record
shows some storms
entering Oman Sea
(how reliable?)
• Lack of local experience in dealing
with cyclones
• More common in the future?
Cyclone Catarina –Brazil• First EVER recorded
cyclone in the South
Atlantic (Category 2)
• Caused widespread
damage
• Countries that are
not used to getting
these events suffer
more damage.
Summary (I)
• Tropical cyclones are likely to increase
in strength in the future.
• Much is still unknown about these
events.
• 30.6 and 127.9 billion additional Yen
required to be invested in port
infrastructure in Japan by the year 2085
• Japanese GDP could be 0.15% lower in
the year 2085 due to downtime only
Summary (II)
• Breakwater damage could increase by
up to 50% by 2050 as a result of sea
level rise
• Cost of construction new breakwaters
could increase by up to 2.3% to take into
account sea level rise only
• Areas of the world which do not
experience tropical cyclones could start
to feel them in the future
Thank you…
Any Questions?
Dr Miguel Esteban
[email protected]
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