Transcript real estate market

09/04/2015
Presentation title
1
Brazil – A country of
opportunities
Paulo Safady Simão
CBIC Chair
09/04/2015
Brazil – A country of opportunities
BRAZILIAN CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRY CHAMBER
National and international
representative of employer
associations in the construction
and real estate industry
BRAZILIAN CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRY CHAMBER
UNIONS, EMPLOYER
ASSOCIANTIONS
AND CHAMBERS
62 Associations
26 States and Federal District
Highway Construction
Sanitation
Real Estate
Construction Segments
GENERAL INFORMATION
BRAZIL
Brazil – A country of opportunities
RECENT GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
“The stability of the economy and of
the country’s democratic institutions as well as frank
dialogue between government and civil society were
decisive in successfully confronting the crisis”
A development strategy based on investment
and mass consumption (domestic market) was adopted;
and ...
Monetary policy
Reserve requirement
Reduced interest rates
Foreign trade (reserves)
Fiscal policy
Reduced taxes on production
Investments in construction
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
 Economic stability;
 Average growth of approximately 4.7% per year;
 Growth driven by internal demand and by investments in
infrastructure and housing;
 Investments projected to grow by at least twice the rate of
GDP in the coming 4 years;
 Notwithstanding forecasts pointing to a renewed global
downturn, domestic demand remains robust, international
reserves and reserve requirements are higher than in 2008,
and the fiscal situation is stronger.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Brazilian Central Bank (BACEN) and CBIC Database
GDP GROWTH RATES
In the period 2011-2014, the consolidation of investments (driven by
construction) and increased domestic demand is expected to spur
average annual economic growth of 4,7%.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Preparation and estimates by the Ministry of Finance.
MIDDLE CLASS ACCOUNTS FOR MORE
THAN HALF OF BRAZILIAN POPULATION
DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMIC CLASSES IN BRAZIL (% POPULATION)
Enhanced income distribution has added 29 million to middle class
(Class C).
Note: Monthly household per capita income by class at 2009 prices: Class A/B: more than R$ 4,800.00; Class C: R$ 1,115.00 – R$
4,800.00; Class D: R$ 804.00 – R$ 1,115.00; Class E: up to R$ 804.00.
Source: Getúlio Vargas Foundation/National Household Sample Survey. Prepared and estimated by the Ministry of Finance
A MIDDLE CLASS NATION
COMPOSITION OF BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES (MILLIONS OF PEOPLE)
Source: Getúlio Vargas Foundation/National Household Sample Survey. Prepared by the Ministry of Finance
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY: FORECAST
* IMF Forecast
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Preparation and estimates by the Ministry of Finance.
GENERAL INFORMATION
CONSTRUCTION
Brazil – A country of opportunities
THE CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRY IN CONTEXT
 Represents approximately 20% of national
industrial output;
 More than 2.8 million formal workers;
 More than 170,000 licensed companies;
 Accounts for nearly 41% of fixed investments
in Brazil.
Source and Preparation: CBIC Database.
GROWTH OF CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRY LABOR FORCE
Source: Annual Registry of Social Information/General Registry of Employed and Unemployed Persons
(RAIS/CAGED), Ministry of Labor and Employment. Preparation: CBIC Database.
REAL ESTATE MARKET
Brazil – A country of opportunities
GROWTH IN REAL ESTATE
CREDIT 2002 – 2011 (financing volume)28
REAL ESTATE MARKET
Note: New and used units
Source: Brazilian Central Bank (BACEN), Brazilian Association of Real Estate Credit and Savings (ABECIP), and Federal Savings
Bank (CEF) – FGTS Channel. CBIC Database.
HIGH QUALITY
REAL ESTATE CREDIT
Brazilian Savings and Loan System (SBPE) – Agreements with more than 3 outstanding
installments signed after 1998
Mortgage Guaranty + Fiduciary Lien
Fiduciary Lien
Source: Brazilian Central Bank and Brazilian Association of Real Estate Credit and Savings (ABECIP)
REAL ESTATE FINANCING AS A
PERCENTAGE OF GDP
Source: Brazilian Central Bank (BACEN) and Brazilian Association of Real Estate Credit and Savings (ABECIP).
Preparation: CBIC Database
CREDIT TRANSACTIONS BY
FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN 2009
(AT THE HEIGHT OF THE CRISIS)
Steering of funds at low cost was
decisive for maintaining credit
levels at the height of the global
crisis.
Source: Brazilian Central Bank (BACEN). Preparation: CBIC Database
MY HOME, MY LIFE PROGRAM
(PMCMV)
Brazil – A country of opportunities
MY HOME, MY LIFE PROGRAM
(PMCMV)
Disbursement of MCMV Program (R$ billion)
*Caixa Econômica Federal estimate.
Source: Caixa Econômica Federal. Preparation: Ministry of Finance.
ADDITIONAL GROWTH
INDICATORS ...
HOUSING NEEDS
(millions of units)
5.81
Cumulative shortage - 2009
23.49
2010 - 2022
Source: Civil Construction Industry Trade Union of São Paulo (SINDUSCON-SP), São Paulo State Federation
of Industry (FIESP), Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV). CBIC Database.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Brazil – A country of opportunities
WHAT IS THE PAC
?
It is a program of consistent investments aimed at meeting the
challenges of infrastructure.
GROWTH ACCELERATION
PROGRAM
SECOND PHASE
Source: PAC2 Report.
2011-2014
GROWTH ACCELERATION
PROGRAM – SECOND PHASE
(R$ million)
PAC Projects
2011-2014
PAC Better City
57.1
PAC Citizen Community
23.0
PAC My Home, My Life
278.2
PAC Water and Power for Everyone 30.6
PAC Transportation
104.5
PAC Energy
461.1
TOTAL
955.0
Source: PAC2 Report.
After 2014 Total
57.1
23.0
278.2
30.6
4.5
109.0
626.9
1.088.5
631.4
1.586.4
GROWTH ACCELERATION
PROGRAM
 Organizes government measures and
supports private sector action over a 4
year period.
 Develops an optimal environment to
enable the country to grow at a faster
rate through the execution of
infrastructure studies, projects, and
works.
 Creates the conditions for addressing
the obstacles to sustainable
development.
2014 FIFA WORLD CUP
Urban
Mobility
Ports and
airports
Brazil – A country of opportunities
INVESTMENTS FOR THE
2014 FIFA WORLD CUP
(R$ billion)
Source and Preparation: Ministry of Finance.
2016 OLYMPIC GAMES
Urban
Mobility
Ports and
airports
Brazil – A country of opportunities
PORT INVESTMENTS
Nine major projects of ports in the world (US$ billion)
Note: The expansion of the Port of Santos and the construction of the Açu Port in Rio de Janeiro, the
largest venture investiment in port in Latin America.
Source: CG-LA ExameYearbook 2011-2012. Preparation: Ministry of Finance
INVESTMENT PROGRAM
IN TRANSPORTATION
Sixteen major transport projects in the world (US$ billion)
Source and Preparation: Ministry of Finance.
INVESTMENT PROGRAM
IN TRANSPORTATION
High-speed train linking the cities of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Campinas
(R$ billion and % of total)
Source: STN/Ministry of Finance.
Preparation: Ministry of Finance
INVESTMENT PROGRAM
IN TRANSPORTATION
Airport concession: Planned investments (R$ billion)
Source: STN/Ministry of Finance.
Preparation: Ministry of Finance
ENERGY
 Subsalt;
 Clean Energy;
 Hydroelectric Plan;
 Oil and Gas.
Brazil – A country of opportunities
INVESTMENTS IN THE OIL
AND GAS SECTOR
Ten major projects in the Oil and Gas sectors in the world (US$ billlion)
Note: If plus ship-oil platforms whith building platforms the total value is US$ 40 billion.
Source and Preparation: Ministry of Finance.
INVESTMENTS IN THE
ELETRICITY SECTOR
Fifteen major projects in the Eletricity Sector in the world (US$ billlion)
Source: CG-LA ExameYearbook 2011-2012. Preparation: Ministry of Finance
INVESTMENT FOR THE COUNTRY´S
DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH
Note: Updated in January 2012. Preparation: Ministry of Finance.
OTHERS
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
 Investment in tourism;
 Commercial buildings –
shopping malls, warehouses for
logistics;
 Tecnological Innovation
Program
BRAZILIAN CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRY CHAMBER
www.cbic.org.br
[email protected]
Phone: +55(61) 3327-1013
Fax: +55(61) 3327-1393
09/04/2015
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