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House Price Developments in Europe Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th European Real Estate Society Conference Edinburgh, 13th-16 June 2012 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference Outline 14 June 2012 Background Legal Framework Macroeconomic surveillance Scoreboard Indicators Data sources On-going issues Scoreboard website House Price Indices (HPI) annual Experimental Statistics quarterly Peter Parlasca FRICS: House Price Developments in Europe 2 Background The financial crisis, the economic crises, and the sovereign debt crisis that swept over Europe in 2008 and the following years lead to a number of new EU Policy initiatives: – Van Rompuy Task Force report on Strengthening economic governance in the EU (21 October 2010) – Commission proposal of 29 September 2010 on an Enhanced Economic Policy Coordination 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 3 Legal Framework Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure legal framework published in November 2011 - “Six Pack” – Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances – Regulation (EU) No 1174/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council on enforcement measures to correct excessive macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area The role of Eurostat: Council Conclusions of 8 November 2011 – The Council invites the Commission (Eurostat) to take all necessary initiatives to assure a reliable procedure for the compilation of these statistics as well as a continuous improvement of the underlying statistical information 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 4 Macroeconomic surveillance (1) Commission procedure aiming to the identification of emerging or persistent macroeconomic imbalances at an early stage Based on a scoreboard consisting of a small number of relevant macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators Compiled according to the principles of the European Statistics Code of Practice of the European Statistical System Combined with thresholds defined by the Commission Annual exercise: results published in the Alert Mechanism Report 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 5 Macroeconomic surveillance (2) MIP scoreboard indicators should not be regarded as either policy targets or policy instruments their interpretation should be supplemented by economic judgment and country-specific expertise The composition of the MIP scoreboard indicators may evolve over time First Alert Mechanism Report published on 14th February Together with Eurostat news release: Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard - Eurostat indicators to support the detection of macroeconomic imbalances 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 6 Macroeconomic surveillance (3) 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 7 Imbalance indicators – – – – – – – – – – 14 June 2012 public indebtedness private indebtedness asset market developments: housing evolution of private sector credit flow evolution of unemployment evolution of current account net investment positions real effective exchange rates share of world exports nominal unit labour cost Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 8 Scoreboard indicators 14 June 2012 Current account balance % of GDP- 3 year avg Net international investment position % of GDP Real effective exchange rate 3 year % change Share of world exports 5 year % change Nominal unit labour cost index 3 year % change House prices - deflated 1 year % change Private credit flow % of GDP Private debt % of GDP General government gross debt (EDP) % of GDP Unemployment rate 3 year avg Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 9 Data sources for House Price Indices Eurostat is the main provider receiving data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) The European Central Bank complements data based on contributions of the National Central Banks (NCBs) 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 10 Ongoing issues House prices - legislation – Adoption of the regulation on the regular compilation of harmonised data House prices - coverage – Increasing number of EU Member States covered by the experimental house price statistics 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 11 The scoreboard website Dedicated section of the Eurostat website: scoreboard website Quarterly and additional data easily accessible in the same page Data up-to-date Data available for all member states Users can also find metadata in the standard ESMS format And, for each indicator, a direct link to a table containing longer time series 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 12 House Price Indices (HPI) annual change Hand out 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 13 House Price Indices (HPI) annual 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 14 Experimental House Price Indices quarterly Weblink: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/ methodology/owner_occupied_housing_hpi/experimenta l_house_price_indices 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 15 Contact Details Peter Parlasca FRICS European Commission EUROSTAT 5, rue Alphonse Weicker L-2721 Luxembourg Tel : (+352)4301-33101 E-Mail: [email protected] 14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 16