Transcript E-commerce includes sales, receipts, and contributions from any

Current Surveys of Wholesale
and Retail Trade
An Overview of the Wholesale and
Retail Programs
Timothy Winters
Service Sector Statistics Division
17 June 2011
0:00
Overview of Wholesale and Retail
Topic Areas
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Importance of Wholesale and Retail Estimates
Story Ideas
Annual Surveys
Monthly Surveys
E-Commerce Statistics
Survey Processing
Benchmarking
Data Dissemination
Major Data Users
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1:54
Importance of Wholesale and Retail
Trade Estimates
 Provide most comprehensive data available on
wholesale and retail activity in the U.S.
 Significant inputs into Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) estimates
 Estimates influence financial markets
 Affect business decisions
 Indication of current economic trends
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2:51
Retail Sales vs. GDP
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6:10
Story Ideas- Wholesale & Retail
 Example Headlines:
• January Wholesale Trade Leap Confirms Recovery
• Here’s Why Wholesalers are Bullish on the Economy
• Retail sales show modest increase as gas and food prices eat
into disposable income
• U.S. Online Retail Sales Grow 16.1% in 2010
• The Economic Slowdown and Consumer Spending
• Top Ten Retail Holiday Trends
• Retailers Get Creative with Easter Promotions
• The Road to Recovery Runs Through Retail
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7:22
Annual Wholesale Trade Survey
(AWTS)
 NAICS Sector
• 42 (Wholesale Trade)
 Sample of 8,000 Companies
• Merchant Wholesalers
• Manufacturers’ Sales Branches & Offices (MSBOs)
 Mandatory survey with high response
 Estimates benchmarked to the Census of
Wholesale Trade
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10:30
Annual Wholesale Trade Survey
(AWTS)
 Data Items Collected
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Sales
E-commerce Sales
EDI Sales
Beginning Inventories
End-of-Year Inventories
Inventories Held Outside U.S.
Purchases
Operating Expenses
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14:09
Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS)
 NAICS Sectors:
• 44-45 (Retail Trade)
• 72 (Accommodation and Food Services)
 Sample of 25,000 Companies
 Mandatory survey with high response
 Estimates benchmarked to the Census of Retail
Trade, Accommodation, and Food Services
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14:47
Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS)
 Data Items Collected
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Sales
Sales Taxes
E-commerce Sales
Beginning Inventories
End-of-Year Inventories
Inventories Held Outside U.S.
Purchases
Accounts Receivables
Operating Expenses
Merchandise Lines (NAICS 4541 only)
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15:53
Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey
(MWTS)
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Conducted Monthly since 1946
NAICS Sector 42 (Wholesale Trade)
Sample of 4,000 companies
Sub-sample of AWTS
Merchant Wholesalers Only
Voluntary Survey
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16:36
Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey
(MWTS)
 Data Items Collected
• Sales
• End-of-month Inventories
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17:44
Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS)
 Conducted Monthly since 1951
 NAICS Sectors:
• 44-45 (Retail Trade)
• 722 (Food Services)
 Sample of 12,000 companies
 Sub-sample of ARTS
 Voluntary Survey
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17:55
Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS)
 Data Items Collected
• Sales
• E-commerce Sales
• End-of-month Inventories
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18:30
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade
and Food Services (MARTS)
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Conducted monthly since 1953
NAICS Sector 44-45 and Industry 722
Highly Sensitive Indicator
Sample of 5,000 companies
Sub-sample of MRTS
Voluntary survey
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18:42
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade
and Food Services (MARTS)
 Data Items Collected
• Sales
• E-commerce sales
 Published on the 9th workday following the
reference month
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20:24
E-commerce Statistics
E-commerce includes sales, receipts, and contributions
from any transaction completed over an Internet, extranet,
EDI network, electronic mail or other online system.
Transactions are agreements between buyers and sellers
to transfer ownership of, or rights to use, goods or services.
Payment for these goods and services may or may not be
made online.
Two Main Publications:
• Annual E-Stats
• Quarterly Retail E-commerce
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20:37
Annual E-Stats Publication
 Published since 1999
 Multi-sector Report
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Annual Wholesale Trade Survey (AWTS)
Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS)
Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)
Service Annual Survey (SAS)
 Estimates available
• E-C Shipments/Sales/Revenue vs. Total Sales
• Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) vs. Total E-C
• Merchandise Lines for Selected Retail Industry
 Released approximately 17 months after the
reference year
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21:14
Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Report
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Published since 4th Quarter 1999
Part of the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS)
Retail Sector Only
E-commerce Sales
Released approximately 45-50 days after the
reference quarter
 E-C was 4.5% of Total Retail Sales in the 1st
Quarter of 2011
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22:40
Survey Processing
 Mailout (includes FAXED questionnaires)
 Data Collection
• Completed questionnaires are mailed and faxed back by
respondents
• Fax reminders for delinquent respondents
• Telephone follow-up for delinquent respondents and edit failures
• Internet reporting for MWTS, ARTS, and AWTS
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24:28
Survey Processing
 Tabulation
• Data edits identify cases that are inconsistent with previous
reporting or are growing or declining faster than similar cases
• Put all responses on a calendar basis
• Estimate for nonresponse based on response data
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25:31
Benchmarking
 Once a year we benchmark the quarterly &
monthly survey estimates to the annual survey
estimates
 The sampling error of the estimates is lower in
the annual surveys
• Annual samples are larger than the monthly samples
• Annual samples are mandatory and have better response
 Every 5 years we benchmark the quarterly and
annual estimates to the Economic Census
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26:49
Data Dissemination
 Economic Indicator Releases
• Monthly Wholesale Trade Report
• Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services
• Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales
 Other Data Releases
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Annual Wholesale Trade Release
Annual Retail Trade Release
Annual Benchmark Report for Wholesale Trade
Annual Benchmark Report for Retail Trade
Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Report
 Electronic
• Census Bureau website: www.census.gov tables in Excel, PDF, and text format
• White House Briefing Room (for indicators only)
• Search Database Tool
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Demo access of data
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Search Database Tool
 Customizable downloads of economic indicator
estimates
 Excel or text standard formats
 Future expansion beyond indicators
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Demo search tool
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Major Data Users
 Leading Economic Indicators – used by policy makers,
investors, large companies, consultants, etc.
 Users
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Federal Reserve Board & Treasury – economic trends
Bureau of Economic Analysis- GDP
Council of Economic Advisors – economic analysis
Large Retail and Wholesale Firms – economic conditions, to forecast future
demand, and market analysis
Financial Markets – Wall Street and other markets
Consultants
Market Research Firms
Academia
Media
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41:13
Wrap-up and Overview
Annual Estimates
 Detailed estimates that
include additional data
items beyond core items
 Estimates not as timely
 Mandatory response
 Large sample size
Quarterly/Monthly
Estimates
 Estimates at a higher level
and include core data
items
 Estimates available
shortly after reference
period
 Voluntary response
 Small sample size
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43:31
Thank You!
 Website address: www.census.gov
• Wholesale: www.census.gov/wholesale
• Retail: www.census.gov/retail
 Contact Information:
• U.S. Census Bureau
• [email protected]
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