Transcript Huang Haizhou

Perspectives on China
Economy and Markets
Dr. HUANG Haizhou
With input from CICC Macro and Strategy Team
January 2014
SFC CE Ref: AMU474
SAC License No. S0080613050003
Major markets have bottomed out after significant
changes
270
US
250
230
Europe
210
190
170
Japan
150
130
110
90
China?
70
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Nikkei 225
Mar-11
Sep-11
S&P 500
Mar-12
SHCOMP
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
DAX Index
Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research
1
Global environment is becoming more supportive:
global synchronized recovery in 2014?
1,800
5,950
1,600
4,950
1,400
3,950
1,200
？
2,950
1,950
800
950
Oct-01
1,000
600
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
SHCOMP Index
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
S&P 500
Source: Wind, CICC Research
2
8.0
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Investors have downgraded expectations for the
Chinese economy
11.0
(Consensus GDP growth，%)
SHCOMP Index and consensus GDP growth
4,000
10.5
3,500
10.0
2008
3,000
9.5
2,500
2010
9.0
2,000
8.5
2011
2013
7.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1,500
2012
2009
1,000
2014
7.0
500
0
SHCOMP Index (RHS)
Source: Wind, Bloomberg, CICC Research
3
We see upside risks to Chinese economy
SHCOMP Index and China's GDP growth
3,500
13
3,300
12
3,100
11
2,900
10
2,700
2,500
9
2,300
8
2,100
7
1,900
6
1,700
1,500
5
4Q
1Q
2008: -65.4%
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2009: 80.0%
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
2010: -14.3%
SHCOMP Index (LHS)
3Q
4Q
2011: -21.7%
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2012:3.17%
1Q
2Q
3Q
YTD:-4.9%
GDP:QoQ
Source: Wind, CICC Research
4
China: GDP growth
GDP QoQ
GDP YoY
%
10
© CICC Macro
8.1
7.6
7.8
7.4
7.8
7.7
7.5
7.8
9
8.0
7.5
7.4
7.3
8
7
6
6.7
6.9
7.8
9.4
6.7
6.3
8.9
8.0
7.7
7.5
7.0
7.0
5
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2012: 7.7%
1Q
2Q
3Q
2013E: 7.6%
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2014E: 7.6%
Source: CEIC, CICC Research
5
China economy: Supply is not the main bottleneck
GDP YoY
%
PPI YoY
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: CEIC, CICC Research
6
Real interest rates diverge for different sectors
Real interest rate
YoY
Nominal
interest rate
YoY
Price growth
%
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Consumers
Corporations
Property investors
Source: CEIC, CICC Research * as of Nov 2013
7
RMB appreciation amplifies negative effects of
structural problems on the economy
40
DeliveryYoY
Value for Export YoYYoY
(LHS)
REER (RHS)
%
2010=100
120
115
30
110
20
105
10
100
95
0
90
-10
-20
2005
85
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: CEIC, CICC Research
8
Stabilization in growth



Factors supporting aggregate demand
–
Fiscal expansion
–
Targeted credit policy
–
Property market warms up
Economic growth to stabilize at around 7.5%
–
7.6% for 2013, 7.6% for 2014
–
Upside risks
Inflation to remain mild
–
CPI：2.7% for 2013, 3.1% for 2014
9
Priorities in structural reforms

Opening up: China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone

Reduce monopoly and promote competition

Tax and fiscal reforms

Interest rate liberalization and opening of the capital account

New urbanization and land reform

Relax family planning policy
10
A-share Strategy: key points

A-share market likely to deliver 20% annual return in 2014.

Macro: 2014 will be different from previous years as:
–
Investors have downgraded expectations for the Chinese economy;
–
A new round of reforms is likely to improve economic potential, balance and quality; and
–
The synchronized recovery of major global economies is likely to last into 2014, boding well for the
Chinese economy.

Earnings: we expect A-share earnings to grow 15.2% 2014 ( top-down);

Valuation & Liquidity: CSI300 valuation at historical low in terms of PE/PB, Small-mid caps’ valuation
at historical high; growth recovery has supported some moderate valuation expansion in large cap index.
Real reforms will arouse revaluation of China.

Sectors:
We suggested buying three types of sectors towards the end of 2013: 1) Real estate, building materials
and steel; 2) Mass consumer goods such as home appliances, foods and beverages; 3) Securities firms
and insurance companies;
Investors should also keep a close eye on the rail, shipping, airline, healthcare and media sectors.
Meanwhile, we remain bearish on base materials (e.g. coal and non-ferrous metals) and sectors with
stretched valuations and a gloomy outlook (e.g. electronic components).
11
2014E top-down earnings should grow by 15.2%
Earnings forecast:
2012
1~3Q13
2013E
2014E
Top-down:
Non-financials
Revenue growth
Net margin
Earning growth
Financials
Overall
Bottom-up
for CSI300 Index
Non-financials
Financials
Overall
7.9
9.6
10.7
12.8
4.16
4.39
4.36
4.50
-11.8
13.3
12.0
18.0
13.7
16.5
15.0
13.0
0.8
15.1
13.7
15.2
Consensus
2013E
CICC
2014E
2013E
2014E
12.9
16.4
13.0
13.5
14.7
11.8
15.4
13.1
14.0
13.6
14.5
13.2
Source: Wind, CICC Research
12
0
Apr-05
Jun-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Nov-05
Jan-06
Mar-06
May-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
CSI300 valuation at historical low
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
CSI 300
CSI 500
SME
GEM
Source: Wind, CICC Research
13
Sector allocation: We suggested buying three
types of sectors
Macro
Sector
Earnings
Valuation
Technical
Sub
Cycle
Liquidity
Fiscal policy
Global
economy
Sub
M-L term
trend
Short-term
trend
Policy
Sub
Growth
Revision
Stability
Cash flow
Sub
Historical
comparison
Horizontal
comparison
Global
comparison
Sub
Fund
position
Overbought
/oversold
Real Estate
OW
5
4
4
2
4
3
5
3
5
4
4
4
3
5
1
4
4
3
3
5
5
3
Securities
OW
5
5
4
4
4
4
5
4
5
5
5
3
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
Insurance
OW
4
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
5
4
5
4
2
3
5
2
1
3
3
3
Home Appliances
OW
5
5
4
4
3
4
4
3
5
3
5
5
4
5
4
4
3
5
5
3
5
2
Food & Beverages
OW
5
3
3
4
3
3
4
4
4
2
4
3
3
4
5
5
5
4
4
5
5
4
Construction materials
OW
4
4
4
2
4
4
3
1
4
5
3
2
4
3
3
4
4
2
5
4
4
3
Steel
OW
4
4
4
2
4
4
2
1
2
5
3
3
3
4
2
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
Environmental services
Neutral
5
5
3
3
4
4
5
4
3
5
4
2
2
4
5
2
1
3
2
1
1
3
Auto & Parts
Neutral
4
4
3
4
3
3
3
3
4
2
3
3
3
4
3
4
3
5
4
4
5
3
Apparel & Textiles
Neutral
4
2
3
3
3
4
3
4
3
2
4
3
3
3
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
3
Railway & Toll roads
Neutral
4
4
3
3
4
4
4
3
4
4
3
1
4
4
3
3
3
4
3
2
3
3
Ports & Shipping
Neutral
4
4
4
3
3
4
4
2
4
5
3
5
5
1
1
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
Health Care
Neutral
3
3
3
3
4
3
5
5
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
1
5
5
3
Airports & Airlines
Neutral
3
4
4
3
3
4
3
2
5
2
2
1
5
1
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
Retail
Neutral
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
4
3
2
4
5
1
3
2
4
2
5
5
4
Agriculture
Neutral
3
3
3
4
3
3
4
3
5
3
2
4
1
3
4
3
2
3
2
5
5
3
Banks
Neutral
3
3
3
4
3
3
1
1
1
4
5
2
5
5
2
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
Power
Neutral
3
3
4
3
3
3
1
2
3
1
5
5
5
3
4
5
5
4
4
1
1
3
Media & Internet
Neutral
3
3
3
3
4
3
4
5
2
2
5
5
4
2
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
Tech Equipments
Neutral
2
5
3
3
4
4
5
3
4
4
1
2
2
3
3
1
1
3
1
1
1
3
Construction &
Engineering
Neutral
2
1
3
2
3
3
2
2
3
3
4
3
3
5
2
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
Travel & Hotel &
Restaurant
Neutral
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
2
2
5
3
2
2
5
5
5
3
Information Services
Neutral
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
5
2
3
2
4
2
2
3
2
1
3
4
3
3
4
Oil & Gas
Neutral
2
2
3
3
3
4
1
1
5
1
2
1
4
5
1
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
Electrical equipments
Neutral
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
1
3
2
4
1
1
5
2
3
1
3
2
3
3
Machinery
Neutral
2
2
4
2
3
4
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
3
3
3
3
Chemicals
Neutral
1
1
3
2
3
3
2
2
4
1
1
4
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
3
3
3
Light Manufacturing
UW
1
2
3
3
3
4
1
2
1
1
4
5
2
2
4
1
1
1
5
2
3
3
Electronic Components
UW
1
3
3
3
4
3
2
4
1
2
1
5
1
1
4
2
3
2
2
1
1
3
Coal
UW
1
2
3
3
3
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
3
2
3
3
3
Non-ferrous metals
UW
1
2
3
3
3
4
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
4
3
3
Sector
Sector
Weighting
Score
Source: Wind, CICC Research
14
Key themes: #1 The potential reversal of the deep
cyclical sectors
Industries
Steel
Possibility and reason of turnaround
0.61
Angang Steel Company Limited
20.90
0.46
Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.,Ltd.
41.52
0.93
Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited
9.45
1.53
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited
n.a.
1.30
Guangzhou Shipyard International Company Limited
n.a.
1.84
China CSSC Holdings Limited
263.89
1.34
1) Supply growth in 2014 is likely to be slower than that in 2013. The industry does not
face additional challenge from high speed railway. 2) Continued QE relieves the downward
pressure on renminbi and oil price is unlikely to rise in the future. 3) Valuation is at
historical low and gloomy outlook has been priced in.
China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited
12.56
1.13
Air China Limited
11.92
0.94
China Southern Airlines Company Limited
14.47
0.78
1) Coastal coal and international oil freight rates increased recently; 2) Capacity utilization
rates in dry bulk and tanker markets will reach inflection points in 2014, and BDI has found
effective support at 1500 points. Most shipping companies will likely turn profitable in 2014.
3) Sector valuation is at historical low; 4) Whether capacity utilization rate in the container
market will reach an inflection point in 2014 depends on whether demand exceeds supply.
China Shipping Development Company Limited
n.a.
0.64
China Shipping Container Lines Company Limited
n.a.
1.15
8.59
1.49
Non-ferrous
metals
To solve the serious overcapacity problem in aluminum industry, the government will
strictly control new projects, shut down technologically obsolete plants and encourage
M&As and restructuring.
Machinery
The high speed rail sector has turned around. Shipping and marine engineering will likely
rebound from the bottom. Having declined for two consecutive years, global shipbuilding
orders tend to rebounded significantly in 2013. The new shipbuilding orders over JanuarySeptember rose 98.8% YoY. Given the strong purchase intention in shipbuilding, we
expect the recovery in order volume to continue over the next 6-12 months at least.
Railway
PB (2013E)
10.27
Tightened capacity control improves demand-supply balance in southern and eastern
China. Steady bottom line growth and reduced downside risks help raise long-term
valuation.
Shipping
Valuation
PE (2013)
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.,Ltd.
Baoshan Iron and Steel sold loss-making assets in 2012. Its full-year net profit (excluding
nonrecurring items) is likely to grow YoY. Steel industry valuation is cheap and
stockholding by mutual funds is low.
Construction
materials
Airlines &
airports
Stocks
Freight rates reform is imminent. An increase of Rmb0.015~0.025 in freight rate in 2014
implies EPS of Rmb1.13~1.37 for Daqin Railway.
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd.
Source: Wind, CICC Research * As of Nov. 8th
15
Key themes: #2 SOE Reforms
Six major issues mentioned in
Xi’s Wuhan speech in July
1) Accelerate the
formation of a
unified, open,
competitive and
orderly market
system
The four key aspects of
SOE reforms
•Refocus resources to key
areas and refrain from
others
2) Enhance the
public sector's
economic
development:
encourage, support
and guide the private
sector's economic
development
6) Improve the
party's leadership
and governance
capabilities; play
overview
coordinating role
• Change targets, enhance
efficiency, dispose of
non-core assets, establish
incentive schemes &
diversify ownership
structure
Business
focus
Incentive
and
discipline
Global
vision
More
competition
Comprehensive reforms
require in-depth
investigation of six issues
3) Improve
macroeconomic
regulation; improve
the efficiency and
effectiveness of
government
5) Achieve social
fairness and justice;
safeguard people's
rights
4) Enhance social
development;
promote social
harmony and stability
•Make full use of domestic
and international markets
to utilize excessive
capacity and to build
world-class brands
• Administrative
monopoly to be reduced,
and SOEs to face more
competition from private
businesses
Source: Wind, CICC Research
16
Key themes: #3 M&As
Deal value/GDP
China
USA
12%
USD
bn
180
Traditional industries
Emerging industries
Financials
160
10%
140
120
8%
100
6%
80
60
4%
40
2%
20
0
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Wind, CICC Research
17
Key themes: #4 Wireless Internet Applications
Million
700
China Internet Users
Mobile Internet Users
Rmb
bn
1,400
600
1,200
Market size: Online shopping
Network utilization rate:online shopping (RHS)
50%
45%
40%
500
1,000
400
800
35%
30%
25%
300
600
200
400
20%
15%
10%
100
200
5%
0
0
0%
Source: Wind, CICC Research
18
H-share Strategy: key points

~20% H-share upside in 2014
The H-share market has lost 2% YTD, lagging behind global peers. We expect the HSCEI to rise ~20% to
12,500 by end-2014, with a ~13% contribution from earnings revisions and a ~7% boost from valuation
expanding to 9.5x 12-month forward P/E

Macro: Reforms to improve growth quality
We believe domestic growth will stabilize and downside risk is relatively limited. Our economists expect GDP
growth is 7.6% in 2014, with a higher contribution from consumption . The expediting of reforms would enhance
growth quality and raise medium- to longer-term growth potential

Earnings: Growth recovery to extend
We forecast H-share earnings to grow 14% in 2013 and accelerate to 15% in 2014. Non-financial earnings
could grow 16% in 2014 thanks to higher top-line and a small expansion in profit margin; and financials are to
deliver ~13% growth.

Valuation: ERP normalization to re-rate market
Current valuations of appear subdued relative to the historical range and global peers. We expect stabilizing
domestic growth, mounting reform dividends and potential global tailwinds to help reduce H-share equity risk
premium and prompt a moderate valuation expansion.

Implementation: Sector preference and top-picks
Focus on growth visibility and reform beneficiaries, and overweight select financials (real estate and brokers),
select infrastructure (construction and city utilities), and select consumption (internet/software, healthcare, auto
and home appliance); underweight telecom, coal, retail, apparel/textile and power. Continue to recommend our
thematic baskets of new urbanization and environmental protection.

Risks
For China, we watch financial system risks, cyclical growth momentum, reform execution etc.; from overseas,
key issues include US fiscal impasse and Fed’s policy.
19
2014 earnings to grow 15% on higher sales and
profit margin



Non-financial and financials earnings would growth 16% and 13% in 2014 respectively
Non-financial top-line sales growth to expand thanks to higher 2014 nominal GDP growth estimated by our
economists
Two drivers to potentially nudge-up non-financials profit margins in 2014: 1) subdued domestic commodity
prices and a more valuable Rmb; and 2) better operating efficiency
We are looking for 15% earnings growth in 2014, thanks to ~16% growth in non-financials and ~13% growth for financial
companies
CICC Top-down
Net
Net
Revision
Sales
Net
Forecast vs.
Income
Income
from
Growth Margin
Consensus
Growth Consensus
Now
2011A Non-finan.
Financials
H-share
2012A Non-finan.
Financials
H-share
2013E Non-finan.
Financials
H-share
2014E Non-finan.
Financials
H-share
27%
7.2%
11%
5.9%
10%
6.1%
11%
6.4%
8%
28%
16%
-9%
15%
1%
13%
15%
14%
16%
13%
15%
15%
16%
14%
15%
9%
11%
-1%
-1%
-0%
1%
4%
3%
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, CICC Strategy Research
20
ERP reduction to unlock value and induce
valuation normalization


Improving cyclical momentum and mounting reform dividends, as well as a potential global ERP reduction, to
somewhat alleviate concerns about medium-/long-term growth
We expect ERP to narrow 0.5ppt from the current 7% to 6.5% by end-2014
Based on our 3-stage DDM and assuming China’s 10-year government bond yield is 4.3% at end-2014, the
corresponding end-2014 target 12-month forward P/E is ~9.5x, implying a 7% expansion
MSCI China has returned 20.5% since June 25, with a forward
P/E expansion of 16.8% and forward EPS upgrade of 3.3%
(Rebased)
140
130
120
2013/1/4
2012/9/5
Change
12m forward EPS (RHS)
MSCI
China
65.4
51.6
26.8%
12m forward P/E
2013/11/6
2013/6/25
Change
12m fwd 12m fwd
P/E
EPS (HK$)
10.4x
6.28
8.5x
6.10
23.2%
3.0%
12m fwd 12m fwd
P/E
EPS (HK$)
8.9x
6.95
7.6x
6.73
16.8%
3.3%
(HK$)
7.5
6.6
2013/6/25
2013/1/4
Change
MSCI
China
51.3
65.4
-21.6%
12m fwd 12m fwd
P/E
EPS (HK$)
7.6x
6.73
10.4x
6.28
-26.8%
7.2%
Cost of equity sensitivity based on our MSCI China 3-stage DDM
18
16
7.2
6.9
110
100
MSCI China
MSCI
China
61.8
51.3
20.5%
We estimate 9~12x as the fair range for H-shares based on
our 3-stage DDM
12-month forward P/E (X)

14
9~12x the fair forward P/E range
12
10
8
6.3
6
8.0%
90
6.0
Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, CICC Strategy Research
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0%
Cost of equity
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, CICC Strategy Research
21
Focus growth visibility & reform beneficiaries

We continue to focus on growth visibility and reform beneficiaries in our sector picks. We suggest
overweighting real estate and brokers, construction and city utilities and internet/software, healthcare, autos,
home appliances, and underweighting telecoms, coal, retail, apparel/textiles, chemicals and power
CICC
Sector
12m
12m
strategy
Previous
weights forward trailing
2014
preference
(%)
P/E (X) P/B (X)
preference
Sector
Why we OW/UW
Growth visibility
Reform impact
↑
Software & Services
Real Estate
OW
OW
OW
OW
7.5
6.3
29.6
5.4
13.0
1.3
↑
↑
Capital Goods
OW
OW
3.9
10.1
1.2
Auto & Parts
OW
OW
3.2
11.3
2.5
City Utilities
OW
Neutral
1.6
16.1
3.0
↑ (construction)
↑ (mid-/low tier)
↑
Health Care
Diversified Financials
OW
OW
Neutral
OW
1.3
0.9
16.6
13.3
2.4
1.2
Home Appliance
Banks
Oil & Gas
OW
Neutral
Neutral
OW
Neutral
Neutral
0.2
24.6
12.4
14.2
5.2
8.6
5.4
1.1
2.0
Insurance
Neutral
Neutral
7.5
12.8
2.0
Consumer Staples
Transportation
Hardware
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
6.0
2.1
1.8
24.2
15.9
14.7
4.0
1.2
2.1
Cement
Neutral
Neutral
1.4
7.6
1.3
Metals & Mining
Neutral
UW
1.2
18.2
0.9
Paper
Neutral
Neutral
0.4
11.5
1.3
Telecoms
UW
UW
10.9
11.0
1.5
Coal
UW
UW
2.3
8.9
1.1
Power
UW
Neutral
1.8
9.6
1.5
Retail
UW
UW
1.7
13.7
2.1
Apparel & Textile
UW
UW
0.6
12.8
2.4
UW
UW
0.4
10.8
1.4
Chemicals
↑
↑ (clean energy)
↑
5 year
rolling
Valuation
Z-Score
0.9
-0.7
-0.1
↓ (luxury)
↑
↑
↑
↑
↓
↓ (oil majors)
↑
↑
↑
0.4
0.5
-0.4
-0.4
1.2
-1.2
-0.4
-1.0
0.6
0.1
-0.0
-0.7
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
-0.0
↓
↓
↓
-0.5
↓ (coal-fired)
-1.0
0.1
-0.6
-0.8
1.2
-0.2
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, I/B/E/S, MSCI, CICC Strategy Research. Note: Based on MSCI China index constituents and GICS sector
classifications; valuations are consensus estimates.
22
The long-term potential output will be driven by
reform and opening-up
© CICC Macro
Source: CEIC, CICC Research
23
23
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