Transcript Determinant of Beijing Medal Count and does

Conference of the Economy 2008
Regional integration in an era of Globalization
A Tribute to Dr Trevor Farrell
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Determinants of Beijing Medal Count and
Revealed Comparative Advantage, Athletics and
Building Social Cohesion in the CARICOM
Roger Hosein and Patrick Watson
Presented by Roger Hosein
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Introduction

For a small developing region like the CARICOM
sports can promote a number of important
developments.



Sports can help in strengthening regional ties, engagement,
identity and pride.
Sporting activities and events contribute to the
development of stronger social networks and more socially
cohesive countries.
Sports provide opportunities for social engagement, often
with alternative peer groups, which can create awareness of
differences and break down barriers for individuals,
communities and the region.
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Objective of Presentation

The main objectives of this study is
1)
2)
3)
To determine the factors influencing medal outcomes
in the recently concluded Beijing Olympics.
To assess the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)
of Caribbean economies with regards to their Olympic
performances in the last 16 years.
To argue in favor of a more pronounced regional
sporting agenda, led by athletics to help build a greater
element of social cohesiveness in the region with the
intention that this can form the basis for deeper
economic integration.
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Ability to win medals
Fig 1: # of countries participation in the Olympics and % not winning a medal, 1896 -2008
80
% winning a medal
60
50
150
100
# of participating
countries not
winning a medal
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
18
9
19 6
00
19 a
04
19
08
19
12
19
20
19
24
19
28
19
3
19 2
36
19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
7
19 2
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
Participating countries
70
200
% of countries not winning a medal
250
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Socioeconomic factors affecting
medal count

Population
 Economic resources (income per capita)
 Hosting of the Olympics
 Learning by doing
 Political structure of an economy
 Social conditions, e.g. literacy
 Gender development index
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Regression estimates from various models: the
dependent variable is medal count
Table 1: Regression Estimates
Regressors
Coefficients with p values in brackets
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
Model 5
ln population
0.276
0.077
0.086
0.084
0.085
ln GDPPC
0.414
0.108
0.065
0.067
0.896
0.761
0.747
0.729
0.701
0.289
0.29
0.195a
0.349
0.298
ln medal04
ln literacy
host
communism
0.196
R sq. adj.
0.46
0.794
0.82
0.825
0.833
DW
2.09
2.2
2.2
2.15
2.09
a: Every variable in each of the model was significant at the 5% or less level
the literacy variable in model 5 was significant at the 15% level)
(only
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Histogram showing residuals for model
Figure 2: Residuals for Model
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Series: Residuals
Sample 1 197
Observations 197
30
25
20
15
10
5
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
3.64e-17
-0.001870
0.977477
-0.668650
0.202188
0.534739
6.662189
Jarque-Bera
Probability
119.4757
0.000000
0
-0.50
-0.25
-0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
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Residual, actual and fitted values
Figure 3: Residual, Actual and Fitted Values
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
1.2
0.0
0.8
-0.5
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
25
50
75
Residual
100
125
Actual
150
175
Fitted
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Revealed Comparative Advantage and the Caribbean’s
Specialization in Athletics

Balassa (1965) in an evaluation of the factors that
determine the comparative advantage of an
economy noted that, “Comparative advantage
appears to be the outcome of a number of factors,
some measurable, others not, some easily pinned
down, others less so. One wonders, therefore,
whether more could not be gained if instead of
enunciating general principles and trying to apply
these to explain actual trade flows, one took the
observed pattern of trade as a point of departure.”
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Revealed Comparative Advantage and the CARICOM’s
Specialization in Athletics
The Balassa index as utilized by Tscha and Pershin (2003) adapted
for our purposes can be represented as illustrated in the
formulation below:
M ij M i
R ij 
Tj T
Where




Mi : amount of medals won by country i
Mij : Country’s i medal in sports j
Tj : the number of medals won in sport j
T : total number of medals won at the Olympics.
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RCA Scores in cycling and various socio economic attributes of relevant
economies, 2008
Table 2: RCA Scores for Cycling and other Socio Economic Factors
GDI Score
(2005)
HDI Score
(2005)
High-technology
exports (%
of
manufacture
d exports)
2005
RCA cycling
Population (2008
est)
GDP, PPP (current
international
$ million ) 2004
Argentina
2.96
40,482,000
372549.07
0.865
0.869
6.6
Denmark
2.53
5,484,723
173896.27
0.944
0.949
21.6
France
2.66
64,057,792
1768671.5
0.95
0.952
20.1
Germany
1.3
82,369,552
2465247.4
0.931
0.935
16..9
Great Britain
5.28
60,943,912
1862688.7
0.944
0.946
23.7
Italy
1.27
58,145,320
1595450
0.939
0.941
7.8
Latvia
5.91
2,245,423
26682.04
0.853
0.855
5.3
Netherlands
1.11
16,645,313
539600.3
0.951
0.953
30.1
New Zealand
3.94
4,173,460
98266.35
0.935
0.943
14.2
Poland
1.77
38,500,696
497409.8
0.867
0.87
3.8
Spain
3.94
40,491,052
1108107.3
0.944
0.949
7.1
Sweden
7.1
9,045,389
282110.39
0.955
0.956
16.7
11.83
7,581,520
255383.46
0.946
0.955
21.7
Switzerland
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RCA Scores in swimming and various socio economic
properties of relevant economies, 2008
Table 3: RCA Scores for Swimming and other Socioeconomic Factors
RCA in
swimming
Population (2008
est)
Australia
4.01
21,007,310
Austria
3.07
Brazil
GDP, PPP (current
international $
million ) – 2004
High-technology
exports (% of
manufactured
exports) 2005
GDI Score
(2005)
HDI Score (2005)
615325.21
0.96
0.962
12.7
8,205,533
270061.14
0.934
0.948
12.8
1.23
196,342,592
1493336.5
0.798
0.8
12.8
Denmark
1.32
5,484,723
173896.27
0.944
0.949
21.6
France
1.38
64,057,792
1768671.5
0.95
0.952
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Great Britain
1.18
60,943,912
1862688.7
0.944
0.946
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Hungary
2.76
9,930,915
164252.48
0.872
0.874
Japan
1.84
127,288,416
3709826.5
0.942
0.953
22.5
Netherlands
1.15
16,645,313
539600.3
0.951
0.953
30.1
Norway
1.84
4,644,457
194204.62
0.957
0.968
17.3
Serbia
3.07
10,159,046
58776.99
Na
na
na
Slovenia
1.84
2,007,711
42901.52
0.914
0.917
4.6
Tunisia
9.21
10,383,577
60337.58
Na
0.766
4.9
United States
2.6
303,824,640
39699.56
0.937
0.951
31.8
Zimbabwe
9.21
11,350,111
na
0.505
0.513
0.9
24.5
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RCA Scores in athletics and various socio economic
properties of relevant economies, 2008
Table 4 : RCA scores in Athletics and various socioeconomic attributes of relevant economies, 2008.
RCA athletics
Population
(2008 est)
Bahamas
6.79
307451
Bahrain
6.79
Belarus
GDP, PPP
(current
international $
million ) – 2004
Hightechnology
exports (% of
manufactured
exports) 2005
GDI Score
(2005)
HDI Score
(2005)
na
0.841
0.845
4.9
718306
21830.12
0.857
0.866
2
2.5
9685768
74049.222
0.803
0.804
2.6
Belgium
6.79
10403951
323371.51
0.94
0.946
8.7
Cameroon
6.79
18467692
33073.818
0.524
0.532
2
Croatia
1.36
4491543
54712.152
0.848
0.85
11.5
Cuba
1.42
11423952
na
0.839
0.838
29.1
Czech Republic
1.13
10220911
197236.91
0.877
0.891
12.9
Ecuador
6.79
13927650
80569.658
na
0.772
7.6
Estonia
3.4
1307605
19747.391
0.858
0.86
17.6
Ethiopia
6.79
82544840
41003.835
0.393
0.406
0.2
Finland
1.7
5244749
156426.32
0.947
0.952
25.2
Greece
1.7
10722816
306279.38
0.922
0.926
10.2
Jamaica
6.79
2804332
14941.149
0.732
0.736
0.4
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RCA Scores in athletics and various socio
economic properties of relevant economies, 2008
Table 5 : RCA scores in Athletics and various socioeconomic attributes of relevant economies, 2008.
RCA athletics
Population (2008
est)
GDP, PPP (current
international $ million )
– 2004
GDI Score (2005)
HDI Score
2005
High-technology exports
(% of
manufactured
exports) 2005
Kenya
6.79
37953840
44007.816
0.521
0.521
3.1
Latvia
2.26
2245423
26682.042
0.853
0.855
5.3
Lithuania
1.36
3565205
43242.812
0.861
0.862
6.1
Morocco
6.79
34343220
101556.98
0.621
0.646
10.1
New Zealand
1.51
4173460
98266.354
0.935
0.943
14.2
Nigeria
3.4
146255312
225293.32
0.456
0.7
1.7
Norway
1.36
4644457
194204.62
0.957
0.968
17.3
Panama
6.79
3309679
27473.052
0.81
0.812
0.9
Poland
1.36
38500696
497409.8
0.867
0.87
3.8
Portugal
3.4
10676910
201676.07
0.895
0.897
8.7
Russia
1.7
140702096
1548969.1
na
0.802
8.1
Slovenia
1.36
2007711
42901.518
0.914
0.917
4.6
South Africa
6.79
48782756
367155.23
0.667
0.674
6.6
Sudan
6.79
40218456
56572.27
0.502
0.526
Na
T&T
6.79
1047366
21596.753
0.808
0.814
1.3
Turkey
1.7
71892808
689301.33
0.763
0.775
1.5
Ukraine
1.26
45994288
248573.23
0.785
0.788
3.7
United States
1.42
303824640
11657300
0.937
0.951
31.8
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RCA score in Athletics 1996 - 2008
Table 6: RCA Scores for Athletics
1996
2000
2004
2008
Bahamas
6.38
6.92
6.73
6.79
Belarus
1.7
2.04
1.35
2.5
Czech Republic
1.74
1.73
1.68
1.13
Ethiopia
6.38
6.92
6.73
6.79
Jamaica
6.38
6.92
6.73
6.79
Kenya
6.38
6.92
6.73
6.79
Morocco
6.38
5.54
6.73
6.79
Nigeria
4.25
4.62
6.73
3.4
Norway
1.82
1.38
1.12
1.36
Portugal
3.19
3.46
4.49
3.4
South Africa
2.55
4.15
2.24
6.79
United States
1.45
1.07
1.65
1.42
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Medal count in Athletic for Bahamas
Table 7: Medal Count in Athletics for
Bahamas
Athletics
Total
Athletics as
% of total
1992
1
1
100
1996
1
1
100
2000
2
2
100
2004
2
2
100
2008
2
2
100
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Medal count in Athletics for Jamaica, (post
independence)
Table 8: Medal Count in Athletics for Jamaica
Athletics
athletics as %
of total
Total
1968
1
1
100
1972
1
1
100
1976
2
2
100
1980
2
2
100
1984
3
3
100
1988
2
2
100
1992
4
4
100
1996
6
6
100
2000
7
7
100
2004
5
5
100
2008
11
11
100
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RCA scores of Jamaica in athletics
Table 9: RCA Scores for
Jamaica in Athletics
1968
4.9
1972
5.5
1976
5.5
1980
5.5
1984
5.5
1988
5.8
1992
6.2
1996
6.4
2000
6.9
2004
6.7
2008
6.8
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CARICOM Integration, Social
Cohesiveness and Sports

CARICOM has not been able to entirely
deliver on its economic promises in any
meaningful way and the region’s trade
continues to be mainly dominated by one
member state.
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CARICOM Integration, Social
Cohesiveness and Sports

There have been several attempts in the past to
unite the Caribbean islands and several institutions
have actually established that carry regional
significance, these are the Caribbean Common
Market (CARICOM), the Organization of Eastern
Caribbean States (OECS), the Caribbean Court of
Justice (CCJ) and the University of the West Indies
(UWI). Although these institutions have made
significant contributions to regional development
there are still much more gaps which need to be
closed, one such being in sports.
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CARICOM Integration, Social
Cohesiveness and Sports

CARICOM people are passionate about sports and the West
Indies cricket team (especially during the 1960s, 1970s,
1980s and 1990s) has done much to integrate the English
speaking Caribbean economies. Regardless of the various
forms of island insularity that may prevail, at cricket time
West Indians unite. This unity in sports is captured in the
Rally cry, the “national anthem’ of the West Indies cricket:
“Rally Round the West Indies”.
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CARICOM Integration, Social
Cohesiveness and Sports

Cameron and Mac Dougall (2000) in a
detailed study on the Australian economy
concluded that:
“ It appears that sport and physical activity can
reduce crime by providing accessible,
appropriate activities in a supportive social
context (page 1).”
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CARICOM Integration, Social
Cohesiveness and Sports

Greater social cohesiveness within CARICOM is
critical to generate a greater degree of regional
confidence in the CSME process.
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Sports can help build social cohesian
by:
1)
2)
3)
4)
Providing plain simple fun,
Providing an escape valve from many of
the pressures in society,
Helping to promote a sense of equality,
Providing a substitutable alternative for
young people’s time and so reduces scope
for the use of illicit drugs and other forms
of deviant behavior.
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Social Cohesiveness and the CSME
process
1) improved social cohesive can increase the will of
the people in CARICOM to see the CSME process
succeed.
2) improved social cohesive can help build a greater
sense of confidence in things Caribbean (Two
sporting events that helped to fuel the confidence of
West Indians is that in 1952 Jamaica won more
medals than the UK and in the 1950 the West Indies
cricket team beat the English cricket team for the
first time).
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Social Cohesiveness and the CSME
process.

3) Social cohesion can help stimulate the
type of patience that is required for regional
firms to mature intraregionally before they
can cope with the rigours of the extra
regional market.
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Conclusion

The CARICOM region has come a long way
but still has much distance to cover on the
road to economic development. Building a
more socially cohesive region can help to
strengthen regional bonds beyond what
exists and enhance the economic relations
that are a necessary part of the integration
process.
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Conclusion

Sports has a definite role to play in this whole
process. This study suggests that because the
region has a comparative advantage in athletics that
various avenues be pursued to mobilize greater
intra CARICOM integration in this field of sporting
endeavor. Focusing on an area with proven RCA
strength can minimize the chances failure and
maximize the chances of success.
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Conclusion
Some immediate policy recommendations would include:
 Replication of the Jamaican CHAMPS system into primary schools
throughout the region
 Replication of the GC Foster and UTECH/MVP setting in at least two
other member states, possibly Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago
 Functional cooperation by member states in athletics, probably including
more intra CARICOM competitions
 Engagement of successful regional athletes by CARCIOM to tour the
various CARICOM member states to provide motivational support
based on the Liverpool Football Club model
 Formation of a specific arm within CARICOM to deal with the
development of athletics in the region as a whole.
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Conclusion
Thank you
Questions and feedback
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