Transcript Economic Performance and Social Inclusion

Transformation Index BTI
Human Rights, Development and Economic Growth –
Metrics, New Ways of Thinking and New Strategies
Washington, D.C. - April 7-8, 2011
Sabine Donner
Transformation Index BTI
Field of Study: 128 Countries
Transformation Index BTI
Dimensions of Analysis
Status Index
State of democracy 2009
State of market economy 2009
Trend indicator
Management Index
Political management performance
(2007 to 2009) allowing for the
degree of difficulty
Holistic Approach
Democracy | Economy | Governance
Criteria of Status and Management Evaluation
Criteria
Political Transformation
Stateness
Political Participation
Rule of Law
Stability of Democratic
Institutions
Political and Social
Integration
Criteria
Economic Transformation
Socioeconomic
Development
Organization of Market
and Competition
Currency and Price
Stability
Private Property
Welfare Regime
Economic Performance
Sustainability
Criteria
Management Performance
Steering Capability
Resource Efficiency
Consensus-Building
International Cooperation
Independent and expert-based study
Expert Assessments: Translating Context into Scores
expert poll, 6500 words-length
country reports
coding manual with four response
options per item
52 item ratings, evaluated by text
(country report) and score (ranking)
based on a standardized codebook
double review
two independent base ratings
intra- and interregional calibration
of ratings
Holistic Approach
Democracy | Economy | Governance
Democracy under the Rule of Law
Stateness
Political Participation
Rule of Law
- Monopoly on the use of
force
- State identity
- No interference of
religious dogmas
- Basic administration
- General, free and fair
elections
- Effective power to
govern
- Association / assembly
rights
- Freedom of expression
- Separation of powers
- Independent judiciary
- Prosecution of office
abuse
- Civil rights
Stability of Democratic
Institutions
Political and
Social Integration
- Performance of and
commitment to
democratic institutions
- Party system
- Interest groups
- Consent to democratic
norms
- Associational activities
Holistic Approach
Democracy | Economy | Governance
Democracy under the Rule of Law
Stateness
Political Participation
Rule of Law
- Monopoly on the use of
force
- State identity
- No interference of
religious dogmas
- Basic administration
- General, free and fair
elections
- Effective power to
govern
- Association / assembly
rights
- Freedom of expression
- Separation of powers
- Independent judiciary
- Prosecution of office
abuse
- Civil rights
Stability of Democratic
Institutions
Political and
Social Integration
- Performance of and
commitment to
democratic institutions
- Party system
- Interest groups
- Consent to democratic
norms
- Associational activities
Status of Democracy
Overview of Political Systems
Democracies
Defective and highly
defective democracies
Moderate autocracies,
autocracies and failing states
Quality of Democracy - BTI 2010 Findings
Detailed Quality Assessment of Political Transformation
Erosion of the rule of law and lack of political and social integration
constitute major weaknesses in defective democracies.
Stateness
Monopoly on the use of force
State identity
No religious dogmas
Basic administration
Political Participation
Free and fair elections
Effective power to govern
Association / assembly rights
Freedom of expression
10
9
8
Rule of Law
Separations of powers
Independent judiciary
Prosecution of office abuse
Civil rights ensured
7
6
5
4
Stability of Demo. Institutions
Democracy performs
Democracy accepted
3
2
1
0
Stateness
Political Participation
Defective democracies
Democracies
Rule of Law
Autocracies
Stability of Democratic
Institutions
Political and Social
Integration
Political and Social Integration
Party system
Interest groups
Consent to democratic norms
Social capital
Quality of Democracy - BTI 2010 Findings
Detailed Quality Assessment of Political Transformation
The largest decrease in average indicator scores in consolidated and
defective democracies during the last four years is notable in the field of
political participation, with regard to association and assembly rights as
well as concerning the freedom of expression.
Stateness
Monopoly on the use of force
State identity
No religious dogmas
Basic administration
Political Participation
Free and fair elections
Effective power to govern
Association / assembly rights
Freedom of expression
10
9
8
Rule of Law
Separations of powers
Independent judiciary
Prosecution of office abuse
Civil rights ensured
7
6
5
4
Stability of Demo. Institutions
Democracy performs
Democracy accepted
3
2
1
0
Stateness
Political Participation
Defective democracies
Democracies
Rule of Law
Autocracies
Stability of Democratic
Institutions
Political and Social
Integration
Political and Social Integration
Party system
Interest groups
Consent to democratic norms
Social capital
Quality of Democracy – BTI 2010 Findings
Growing Restrictions on Freedom of Expression…
East-Central and Southeast Europe:
BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA | CROATIA | LITHUANIA
MACEDONIA | SERBIA | SLOVAKIA
Latin America and the Caribbean:
ECUADOR | EL SALVADOR | NICARAGUA
VENEZUELA
Subsahara Africa:
BENIN | BOTSWANA | BURUNDI | CENTRAL
AFRICAN REP | CONGO DR | CONGO REP
GHANA | KENYA | MADAGASCAR | MALI
MAURITANIA | MOZAMBIQUE | NAMIBIA | NIGER
NIGERA | SOMALIA | SOUTH AFRICA | TANZANIA
UGANDA
Asia and Oceania:
SRI LANKA | MALAYSIA | PHILIPPINES
SOUTH KOREA
Former Soviet Union and Mongolia:
AZERBAIJAN | GEORGIA | KYRGYZSTAN
MOLDOVA | TAJIKISTAN
Middle East and North Africa
BAHRAIN | EGYPT | JORDAN | LEBANON
Freedom of expression
Quality of Democracy – BTI 2010 Findings
…and on Assembly / Association Rights
Freedom of expression
Association/assembly rights
Holistic Approach
Democracy | Economy | Governance
Market Economy Flanked by Sociopolitical Safeguards
Level of Socioeconomic
Development
Organization of the
Market and Competition
Currency and
Price Stability
- Prevention of
fundamental social
exclusion due to
poverty, gender,
ethnicity or religion
- Market-based
competition
- Anti-monopoly policy
- Liberalization of foreign
Trade
- Banking system
- Anti-inflation / forex
policy
- Macrostability (fiscal
and debt policy)
Welfare Regime
Economic Performance
Sustainability
- Social safety nets
- Equal opportunity
- Output strength of the
economy (GDP,
employment, price
stability, budget deficit,
balance of trade)
- Environmental Policy
- Education Policy,
Investment in Research
and Development
Private Property
- Property rights
- Private enterprise
Holistic Approach
Democracy | Economy | Governance
Market Economy Flanked by Sociopolitical Safeguards
Level of Socioeconomic
Development
Organization of the
Market and Competition
Currency and
Price Stability
- Prevention of
fundamental social
exclusion due to
poverty, gender,
ethnicity or religion
- Market-based
competition
- Anti-monopoly policy
- Liberalization of foreign
Trade
- Banking system
- Anti-inflation / forex
policy
- Macrostability (fiscal
and debt policy)
Welfare Regime
Economic Performance
Sustainability
- Social safety nets
- Equal opportunity
- Output strength of the
economy (GDP,
employment, price
stability, budget deficit,
balance of trade)
- Environmental Policy
- Education Policy,
Investment in Research
and Development
Private Property
- Property rights
- Private enterprise
Economic Performance and Social Inclusion
Distribution of Countries and Scores for each Economic Transformation Criterion
Socioeconomic Development
Organization of the Market
Currency and Price Stability
Private Property
Welfare Regime
Economic Performance
Sustainability
Economic Performance and Social Inclusion
Distribution of Countries and Scores for each Economic Transformation Criterion
8
Socioeconomic Development
12
Organization of the Market
18
Currency and Price Stability
16
Private Property
7
Welfare Regime
15
Economic Performance
4
Sustainability
10 – 9 (very good)
Economic Performance and Social Inclusion
Distribution of Countries and Scores for each Economic Transformation Criterion
8
33
Socioeconomic Development
12
58
Organization of the Market
18
83
Currency and Price Stability
16
63
Private Property
7
39
Welfare Regime
15
86
Economic Performance
4 29
Sustainability
10 – 9 (very good)
8 – 6 (good)
Economic Performance and Social Inclusion
Distribution of Countries and Scores for each Economic Transformation Criterion
8
33
56
Socioeconomic Development
12
58
47
Organization of the Market
18
83
23
Currency and Price Stability
16
63
42
Private Property
7
39
69
Welfare Regime
15
86
24
Economic Performance
4 29
82
Sustainability
10 – 9 (very good)
8 – 6 (good)
5 – 3 (weak)
Economic Performance and Social Inclusion
Distribution of Countries and Scores for each Economic Transformation Criterion
8
33
56
31
Socioeconomic Development
12
58
47
11
Organization of the Market
18
83
23
4
Currency and Price Stability
16
63
42
7
Private Property
7
39
69
13
Welfare Regime
15
86
24
3
Economic Performance
4 29
82
13
Sustainability
10 – 9 (very good)
5 – 3 (weak)
8 – 6 (good)
2 – 1 (very weak)
Economic Performance and Social Inclusion
Favorable Conditions at the Outset of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis
13 %
31 %
56 %
Economic Performance
high
moderate
low
Economic Performance and Social Inclusion
Best Economic Performers
31 %
Economic Performance and Social Inclusion
Level of Socioeconomic Development, Equality of Opportunity and Social Safety Nets
27 %
35 %
38 %
Level of Social Inclusion
high
moderate
low
Holistic Approach
Democracy | Economy | Governance
Political Management Performance, allowing for the Degree of Difficulty
Steering Capability
Resource Efficiency
Consensus-Building
International Cooperation
- Strategic priority setting
- Implementation
- Policy learning
- Efficient use of
economic and human
resources
- Policy coordination
- Anti-corruption policy
- Consensus on goals
- Exclusion / integration
of veto actors
- Conflict management
- Civil society
participation
- Reconciliation
- Effective use of support
- Credibility
- Regional cooperation
- Civil Society Traditions
- Level of Ethnic,
Religious or Social
Conflicts
- Per Capita GNI PPP
- UN Education Index
- Stateness and Rule
of Law (Average of
BTI Criteria Scores)
Level of Difficulty
- Structural Constraints
i.e. extreme poverty,
low educational level,
infrastructural
deficiencies, natural
disasters etc.
BTI 2010 Management Index
Political Management in International Comparison
Political leadership toward democracy
and a market economy
successful
successful with weaknesses
moderate
weak
failed or non-existent
Transparency and Accessibility
Ranking Table
(Online, BTI-Book)
Overview on results including the 17 criteria
scores per country
In addition: All 52 indicator scores per country
accessible via CD-Rom (in BTI-Book) and on
www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de
Country Reports
(Online, BTI-Book)
Detailed analysis and information on all 17
criteria, in addition: Executive Summary,
History and Characteristics, Strategic Outlook
Also: 7 regional reports (BTI-Book)
Transformation Atlas
(Online)
Interactive application to visualize 6,656 individual
scores by world maps (global views), radars
(country views), data comparison (cross-checks)
and explanatory texts
Transformation Index 2010
Political Management in
International Comparison
www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de
BTI 2010
Assessment Procedure
Standardized
codebook
(52 Indicators)
1
Detailed written
country assessment
with scores
Review-Process
2
Commentary and
scores by local
reviewer
3
Regional and
interregional check
by coordinators
4
Final decision
by BTI-Board
Assessment Procedure
Standardized
codebook
(52 Indicators)
1
1
128 Country Experts
Detailed written
country assessment
with scores
Review-Process
2
Commentary and
scores by local
reviewer
3
Regional and
interregional check
by coordinators
4
Final decision
by BTI-Board
Detailed written country assessment
with scores
Assessment Procedure
Standardized
codebook
(52 Indicators)
1
1
128 Country Experts
2
128 Reviewers
from the respective countries
Detailed written
country assessment
with scores
Review-Process
2
Commentary and
scores by local
reviewer
3
Regional and
interregional check
by coordinators
4
Final decision
by BTI-Board
Detailed written country assessment
with scores
Commentary and scores by
local reviewer
Assessment Procedure
Standardized
codebook
(52 Indicators)
1
1
128 Country Experts
2
128 Reviewers
from the respective countries
Detailed written
country assessment
with scores
Review-Process
2
Commentary and
scores by local
reviewer
3
Regional and
interregional check
by coordinators
4
Final decision
by BTI-Board
Detailed written country assessment
with scores
Commentary and scores by
local reviewer
3
Regional Coordinators
Regional and interregional check
by coordinators
Assessment Procedure
Standardized
codebook
(52 Indicators)
1
1
128 Country Experts
2
128 Reviewers
from the respective countries
Detailed written
country assessment
with scores
Detailed written country assessment
with scores
Review-Process
2
Commentary and
scores by local
reviewer
3
Regional and
interregional check
by coordinators
4
Final decision
by BTI-Board
4
BTI-Board
Final decision by BTI-Board
Commentary and scores by
local reviewer
3
Regional Coordinators
Regional and interregional check
by coordinators