Transcript S5-Dr. Thein Swe-8th AEF Presentation

ASEAN and the Dialogue Partners:
From Strength to Strength
Thein Swe
8th Asia Economic Forum
Hotel Sofitel, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
March 18, 2012.
ASEAN and Dialogue Partners
ASEAN
--Indonesia
-- Malaysia
-- Philippines
-- Singapore
-- Thailand
- Brunei Darussalam
- Vietnam
- Myanmar
- Lao PDR
- Cambodia
EAS
ASEAN+3
- Japan
- Republic of
Korea
- People’s
Republic of
China
- Australia
- New Zealand
- India
ASEAN+6
Dialogue Partners
Australia
Canada
China
India
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
European Union (EEC)
Russia
USA
UNDP
Other Groupings/Relations
Pakistan
South Pacific Forum
Gulf Cooperation Council
Rio Group
SAARC
SADC
EFTA
Mercusor
NAFTA
How can ASEAN deepen further and expand its present state of
cooperation and partnership with all its Dialogue Partners in
the most constructive manner?
 East Asia Summit (EAS) established in 2005 (most important
annual gathering of leaders from Asia Pacific)
It is important that ASEAN continue to strengthen the
current political and security environment. ASEAN should
continue to be in the driver’s seat – centrality, with Dialogue
Partners’ support in this initiative.
ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) established in 1994 – the only
political and security dialogue in the region, building confidence
and trust - with constructive and in depth support from the
Dialogue Partners should continue.
ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM Plus)
established in 2010 with 8 dialogue partners is the defense and
security cooperation mechanism in the region. Further support
is also strongly recommended
How can ASEAN maintain and rejuvenate its dialogue
relations and its proactive engagement with the Dialogue
Partners in order to encourage them to positively support the
ASEAN Community building, ASEAN integration, and
ASEAN Connectivity?
Bali Meeting in Nov 2011, pledged to boost ties and enhance
cooperation in various fields.
ASEAN has been working with the Dialogue Partners and
other regional groups in order to build Free Trade Agreements
to accelerate trade and investments.
Significant steps taken with Dialogue Partners with ASEAN
+ 3 and ASEAN + 6, on Free Trade Agreements.
 To maintain ASEAN centrality and ASEAN way, proactive
engagement with Dialogue Partners and obtain support for the
ASEAN Community building, integration and connectivity.
ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 is to become a single
market and production base. It is important to be an ASEAN
led community.
ASEAN’s Major Export Destination and Major Import Sources, 2010.
Exports
Imports
1. China
14. 3%
1. China
17.3 %
2. Japan
12 .6 %
2. Japan
16.2 %
3. U.S.A.
12.6 %
3. U.S.A.
11.6 %
4. Hong Kong (S.A.R of China)
9.3 %
4. Republic of Korea
7.9 %
5. Republic of Korea
5.5 %
5. Saudi Arabia
3.7 %
NOTE:
ASEAN International Trade is mainly with non-ASEAN countries,
but majority is with Dialogue Partners
What more can ASEAN do, both collectively, and
individually, to raise the profile of partnership and level of
cooperation with each of the Dialogue Partners?
For nearly 40 years, ASEAN has been working very
closely with the support of the Dialogue Partners in various
programs and projects that are mutually beneficial and also
mutually connected.
ASEAN should continue both collectively and bilaterally
enhance the level of cooperation with each of the Dialogue
Partners but we need this to be ASEAN led or driven.
It is also to be ASEAN way of raising the profile of twoway partnership when ASEAN Secretary-general, Dr Surin
Pitsuwan said, “When Dialogue Partners suffer, ASEAN
also suffers along with them”, that it is ASEAN way to step
forward and extend our hands to the people of Japan ..and
New Zealand, during the recent tsunami and earthquakes..
 It is important that it is ASEAN led of shared vision with
synergy and solidarity with Dialogue partners. But also to
strengthen “Unity in Diversity” within ASEAN!
 Economic agenda and ASEAN Economic Community 2015,
need to be closely monitored. FTAs with Dialogue Partners - to be
mutually beneficial but also with ASEAN centrality - ASEAN led
initiative and priority, instead of Dialogue Partners’ priority and
initiatives.
 Avoid NATO – No Action Talk Only. But also recognizing the
need for more talk and to understand better, each country’s views
and reasons. But it is also important to be action oriented with the
participation of all inclusive within ASEAN –not only the policy
makers but all the stakeholders in the ASEAN community –
including NGOs, civil societies, and business communities – all
inclusive participatory approach.
It is also crucial to strengthen the transparency and governance
under the AEC 2015 and the Dialogue Partners as well.
It is important that ASEAN also recognize, the role of Greater Mekong Subregion
and Economic Corridors which Dialogue Partners are supporting
Two New Corridors
Northwestern Corridor
From Assam, India – thro’
Myanmar to Kunming
Western Corridor
from Sittwe, Myanmar
to Kunming,PRC
US led Lower Mekong Initiatives
Members:
Thailand
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Viet Nam
Myanmar (recently invited)
North-South
Economic
Corridor (1)
North-South
Economic
Corridor (2)
East – West
Economic
Corridor
South
Economic
Corridor (2)
South
Economic
10 (1)
Corridor
One more crucial area that ASEAN could do, is to raise the
profile of partnership and level of cooperation with Dialogue
Partners on the experience of economic integration among EU
members and the Lessons Learned from Euro Zone debt
crisis.
With ASEAN preparing for ASEAN Economic Community
in 2015, ASEAN could request to the Dialogue Partner
countries of European Union (EU), on Euro Zone debt crisis
and lessons learned would be very beneficial for ASEAN.
EU and Euro zone countries could share their experience
with ASEAN on the merit of integration between countries
with different levels of economic development.
 ASEAN members are also in similar situation with
different levels of economic development.
The important lessons learned in the recent economic
imbalances in the Euro Zone debt crisis would be very useful
for ASEAN.
The inter-related factors resulted in the economic imbalances
and Euro zone debt crisis were:
a. Disparity in economic competitiveness among Euro zone
member countries;
b. Single currency of the Euro make cheaper borrowing costs,
and increased borrowings for imports led to significant
increase in debt to GDP ratios;
c. Weak monitoring of the Maastrich Treaty on limitation of
(i) 3% of GDP borrowing limits (Budget Deficit), and
(ii) 60 % debt to GDP ratio to ensure stability in Euro zone.
d. This led to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain
(PIIGS) with economic imbalances.
e. Large (Germany and France) as well as medium and
smaller Euro zone members (PIIGS) did not follow nor
monitor closely the above limitation conditionality of
Maastrict Treaty.
The Asean Economic Community main objectives are:
(a) Create a single market and production base;
(b) Highly competitive economic region;
(c) Region of equitable economic development; and
(d) Region fully integrated into the global economy….. by 2015.
 Hence, ASEAN needs to raise the level of cooperation with
the Euro zone Dialogue Partners to share their experience
and the lessons learned in order that ASEAN could take
necessary
precautionary measures and avoid similar
economic and financial imbalances, and enable to achieve
the main objectives mentioned above of the ASEAN
Economic Community by 2015, including strengthening
ASEAN integration and connectivity .
THANK YOU