Transcript MYANMAR - Local Resource Centre

The Place of Myanmar in South East Asia
Dr Thein Swe
[email protected]
Local Resource Centre, Yangon
October 20, 2012
Myanmar is the largest
country in the Greater Mekong Subregion- 676,600 sq km
Myanmar
•Second largest country in ASEAN
(Indonesia – 1,904,600 sq km)
With 60 million population and
rich natural resources:
•--arable land
•--forestry
•--minerals(incl. copper, gas and oil)
•--fresh water and marine resources
Poverty particularly in the
remote and border areas, with
poverty incidence -- 26.6% est.
Target is to reduce to 16% in 2015?
2
Areas of Changes/Reforms
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Holding of free and fair by elections (April 2012)
Myitsone Dam suspension
Calling for Peace with all ethnic nationalities
Releasing Political Prisoners
Relaxing Press/Media
Permission to form Trade Unions
New code for permission public demonstrations
Recent Economic Outlook:
• With the two neighboring booming economies, there is a
growing market for Myanmar agriculture and other products.
• Challenges are :
–
–
–
–
–
Weak or lack of infrastructure,
Foreign investment laws and regulations.
Governance and Transparency .
Building Trust and Genuine Peace with all ethnic nationalities.
Real reforms and not just lip services
• Critical that the real reform process continues to be
implemented effectively and translates into a better basic
economic and social needs of all the people of the country.
4
ADB estimated for 2011 to be $759.01
In the early 1960s, Myanmar was one of Asia’s leading economies. Its per capita
income in 1960 was about $670 – more than three times that of Indonesia, more
than twice that of Thailand. (Booth 2003).
Source: Myanmar in Transition, ADB August 2012
The Rule of 70
The Rule of 70 is useful for financial as well as demographic analysis. It states that to find the doubling time of a quantity
growing at a given annual percentage rate, divide the percentage number into 70 to obtain the approximate number of
years required to double. For example, at a 10% annual growth rate, doubling time is 70 / 10 = 7 years.
Similarly, to get the annual growth rate, divide 70 by the doubling time. For example, 70 / 14 years doubling time = 5, or a
5% annual growth rate.
The following table shows some common doubling times:
Growth Rate
(% per Year)
Doubling Time
in Years
0.1
700
0.5
140
1
70
2
35
3
23
4
18
5
14
6
12
7
10
10
7
2011........................……………………………..$760 per capita income
2021……………..7………………………………$760 + $760 = $1520
2031……………..7………………………………$1520+1520 = $3040
Economic and Ecological Health Index
32.
35.
42.
55.
80.
84.
96.
98.
150.
Myanmar
Lao People’s Democratic Republic
Indonesia
Cambodia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Thailand
Philippines
Singapore
http://www.globaltvbc.com/canada/vancouver+scientists+unveil+global+index+meas
uring+economy+and+ecology/6442584985/story.html
How World Media and Perception has
Changed
Myanmar Pawsan chosen world best rice
YANGON, 23 Oct, 2011— Pawsan rice of Myanmar was
selected as World Best Rice 2011 in World Rice Conference
2011 on 21 October in Ho Chi Minh City, of Vietnam.
Pawsan rice internationally known as Myanmar pearl rice is
the indigenous strain of Myanmar. It has also won third prize
in World Rice Conference 2010 in the Philippines.
In this year’s competition, Pawsan stood first grabbing 14 out
of the highest mark of 15, 0.2 mark ahead of Jasmine rice of
Thailand.
Regional Groupings in Asia
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
APEC
Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation Forum
- Russian Federation
- Canada
- United States
- Mexico
- Peru
- Chile
ASEM
CIS
- European Union
(27 member countries)
Greater Mekong Subregion
ASEAN
- Philippines
- Myanmar - Thailand
- Lao PDR - Malaysia
- Cambodia - Singapore
- Brunei
Darussalam
- Indonesia
- Vietnam
Lower Mekong Initiative
BIMSTEC
1997
ASEAN+3
EAS
- Japan
- Republic of
Korea
- People’s
Republic of
China
- Taipei, China
- Hong Kong, China
- Australia
- New Zealand
- Papua New Guinea
- Palau
- FSM
- Marshall Is.
- Kiribati
- Nauru
- Tuvalu
- Niue
- Tonga
- Samoa
- Cook Is.
- India
- Mongolia
- Pakistan
PIF
- Kazakhstan
- Uzbekistan
CAREC
- Azerbaijan
- Kyrgyzstan
- PRC
- Tajikistan
- Afghanistan
-Maldives
- Sri Lanka
SAARC
- Vanuatu
- Solomon Is.
- Nepal
- Bhutan
- Bangladesh
- Fiji Is.
ASEAN
Are we (Myanmar) ready to take the role of Chair of ASEAN in 2014?
ASEAN and Dialogue Partners
ASEAN
--Indonesia
-- Malaysia
-- Philippines
-- Singapore
-- Thailand
- Brunei Darussalam
- Vietnam
- Myanmar
- Lao PDR
- Cambodia
EAS
ASEAN+3
- Japan
- Republic of
Korea
- People’s
Republic of
China
- Australia
- New Zealand
- India
ASEAN+6
Dialogue Partners
Australia
Canada
China
India
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
European Union (EEC)
Russia
USA
UNDP
ASEAN has been working with the Dialogue Partners and
other regional groups in order to build Free Trade Agreements
to accelerate trade and investments.
Significant steps taken with Dialogue Partners with ASEAN
+ 3 and ASEAN + 6, on Free Trade Agreements.
 To maintain ASEAN centrality and ASEAN way, proactive
engagement with Dialogue Partners and obtain support for the
ASEAN Community building, integration and connectivity.
ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 is to become a single
market and production base. It is important to be an ASEAN
led community.
Can ASEAN deepen further and expand its present state
 East Asia Summit (EAS) established in 2005 (most important
annual gathering of leaders from Asia Pacific)
It is important that ASEAN continue to strengthen the
current political and security environment. ASEAN should
continue to be in the driver’s seat – centrality, with Dialogue
Partners’ support in this initiative.
ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) established in 1994 – the only
political and security dialogue in the region, building confidence
and trust - with constructive and in depth support from the
Dialogue Partners should continue.
ASEAN Defense Ministers ’ Meeting Plus (ADMM Plus)
established in 2010 with 8 dialogue partners is the defense and
security cooperation mechanism in the region.
Lessons Learned from Euro Zone debt crisis.
With Myanmar to chair the ASEAN in 2014 and ASEAN
preparing for ASEAN Economic Community in 2015, ASEAN
could learn from Euro Zone debt crisis and lessons learned
would be very beneficial for ASEAN.
ASEAN could learn share on the merit of integration
between countries with different levels of economic
development.
 ASEAN members are also in similar situation with
different levels of economic development.
The important lessons learned in the recent economic
imbalances in the Euro Zone debt crisis is very useful for
ASEAN to take this into consideration when implementing the
AEC in 2015.
The inter-related factors resulted in the economic imbalances
and Euro zone debt crisis were:
a. Disparity in economic competitiveness among Euro zone
member countries;
b. Single currency of the Euro make cheaper borrowing costs,
and increased borrowings for imports led to significant
increase in debt to GDP ratios;
c. Weak monitoring of the Maastrich Treaty on limitation of
(i) 3% of GDP borrowing limits (Budget Deficit), and
(ii) 60 % debt to GDP ratio to ensure stability in Euro zone.
d. This led to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain
(PIIGS) with economic imbalances.
e. Large (Germany and France) as well as medium and
smaller Euro zone members (PIIGS) did not follow nor
monitor closely the above limitation conditionality of
Maastrict Treaty.
The Asean Economic Community main objectives are:
(a)Create a single market and production base;
(b)Highly competitive economic region;
(c)Region of equitable economic development; and
(d)Region fully integrated into the global economy….. by 2015.
Hence, Myanmar as chair of ASEAN in 2014 should used the
lessons learned in order that ASEAN could take necessary
precautionary measures and avoid similar economic and
financial imbalances, and achieve the main objectives of the
ASEAN Economic Community by 2015, including
strengthening ASEAN integration and connectivity .
The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)
People’s Republic of China
Land area: 633 thou sq km
Population: 93.8 M
Myanmar
Land area: 677 thou sq km
Population: 54.8 M
GDP per capita: US$255
GDP per capita: US$1,032
(figures for Yunnan and Guangxi only)
Viet Nam
Land area: 332 thou sq km
Population: 83.1 M
Thailand
GDP per capita: US$622
Land area: 513 thou sq km
Population: 65.3 M
GDP per capita: US$2,727
Lao PDR
Land area: 237 thou sq km
Population: 5.6 M
Land area: 2.6 M sq km
GDP per capita: US$491
Population: nearly 500 M
per capita: US$1,102
Cambodia
Land area: 181 thou sq km
Population: 13.8 M
GDP per capita: US$393
Building a Community
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
18
Core environment program
Flood management and mitigation
Communicable disease control
Promotion of safe migration and
prevention of trafficking of girls and
women
Establishment of complementary
subregional initiatives ,
Ayeyawaddy Chao Phraya Mekong
Economic Cooperation Strategy ACMECS,
Emerald Triangle –Thailand, Cambodia
and Lao PDR,
Development Triangle – Lao PDR,
Cambodia and Vietnam)
New Corridors
Economic Corridors
Northwestern Corridor
From Assam, India –
thro’ Myanmar to
Kunming
North-South
Economic
Corridor (1)
Western Corridor
from Sittwe, Myanmar
to Kunming,PRC
AS MYANMAR is
Strategically located
between
INDIA; CHINA; ASEAN
East – West
Economic
Corridor
Dawei
Trilateral Connectivity by 2016
INDIA; MYANMAR: THAILAND
Also US led Lower Mekong Initiatives
Southern
Economic
Corridor (1)
Southern
Economic
Corridor (2)
Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI)?
The LMI was created in response to the July 23, 2009
meeting between US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia,
Laos, Thailand and Vietnam -- in Phuket, Thailand.
At this first LMI Ministerial Meeting, the Ministers
agreed to enhance cooperation in environment,
health, education, and infrastructure development.
To counter GMS which includes China and Myanmar.
But, the US Secretary of State visited Myanmar, in Dec
2011, and invited Myanmar to join LMI.
And the Cobra Military exercise in Thailand.
• China is set to commence negotiations to create a 16nation trade bloc, known as the Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (RCEP), was announced at the ASEAN
summit in Phnom Penh in 2012.
• The RCEP will include the 10 members of ASEAN (includes
Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam), plus China,
India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, and
will have the effect of lowering trade barriers and custom
duties across the region by the end of 2015.
• A map of the participating members of the proposed RCEP
can be seen in the next slide – in yellow color.
21
ASEAN’s Major Export Destination and Major Import Sources, 2010.
Exports
Imports
1.China
14. 3%
1. China
17.3 %
2.Japan
12 .6 %
2. Japan
16.2 %
3.U.S.A.
12.6 %
3. U.S.A.
11.6 %
4.Hong Kong (S.A.R of China)
5.Republic of Korea
9.3 %
5.5 %
4. Republic of Korea
7.9 %
5. Saudi Arabia
3.7 %
NOTE:
ASEAN International Trade is mainly with non-ASEAN countries,
but majority is with Dialogue Partners
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP)
24
• The TPP negotiations were revitalised by the
US in 2010. The talks will be concluded next
year.
• With the exclusion of China, the move is seen
by some as an attempt to counter the rising
economic clout of Beijing and to assert more
American influence on Asia.
25
China’s Role with the “new Myanmar and
Southeast Asian Geopolitics
Mekong River linking China with 5 other
GMS countries is emerging as an
important conduit of regional trade
26
Just wait till I've had my fill
31
Territorial disputes on the Spratly and Paracel islands between China
Brunei, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan
UN Law of the Sea Treaty establishes specific jurisdictional limits
on the ocean area that countries may claim, including a 12-mile
territorial sea limit and a 200-mile exclusive economic zone limit.
35
CONCERNs WITH
Japan’s Plan to provide $18 billion to Myanmar
(REUTERS and New York Times)
1.
Debt Forgiveness & Refinancing ………$5 billion
- Japanese debt….$3.7 billion
- Bridge loan (WB400mln+ADB 500mln)
- Thilawa SEZ
2.
Yangon Road Rehabilitation/Mass Transit System
3.
Yangon Water Supply Rehabilitation
4.
Four Power Plant Rehabilitation in Yangon
5.
Addition of 6 new berths in Thilawa
6.
Many feasibility studies ongoing including many social and
health projects
7.
AS GIVE AWAY LOANS?…0.01% interest of 50 years (10
years grace period) ?????????????
8.
Consultations with the grassroots not yet define?
9.
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? The Government requesting
completion by 2015! After nearly 40 years of stagnation? 37
The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis brought to surface the economic
interdependence of the whole of East Asia and Southeast Asia.
At the same time, in Asean and East Asia, the atrocities of the Japanese
Imperial Army remains in the minds of the people of East and Southeast
Asia
As Lee Kuan Yew said, “We can forgive but not forget”
Up to 1977, relationship between Asean and Japan was trade. Only after
that the Fukuda Doctrine – balancing with human, cultural and
technological cooperation.
NOW, China growing economic power. China has $3.3 trillion FE reserves;
Japan has $1.3 trillion FE reserves in March 2012.
Asean China FTA; Asean Japan FTA; India, Korea, Australia, New Zealand
GMS countries are crucial for China and Japan, especially for natural
resources as well as logistic transportation.
Asean – China; Asean – Japan serve as building blocks
Let us hope it is not stumbling blocks.
Now, US is also saying that …….USA is an Asia-Pacific Country;
Geopolitics is heating up in ASIA.????
CONCLUSION: What should be the priorities?
– Agrarian Reforms (to overcome land ownerships and disputes)
– Building Planning and Statistical Capacity
– Focus on public sector (strengthening public financial
management); private sector (investment climate), and financial
sector (regulatory reform and access to finance). Overall Capacity
building in the public and private sectors.
– Short term training programs in both the public and private
sectors
– Long Term academic capacity building in various professions
– World Bank three year in-house training program for various
disciplines could be considered? If available now?
– Judicial reforms and technical assistance in the judicial system
reforms including international rules and regulations such as
streamlining procurement rules and procedures and international
arbitrations and strengthening the rule of law
39
Importance of Civil Societies
• Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at
Peking University, told The Economist that “alarm
bells started ringing” for the Chinese over Burma
when construction of the Myitsone dam on the
Irrawaddy River was unexpectedly halted last year.
• China’s mistake was to focus only on building
relationships with government officials, not paying
any attention to “domestic political nuances.”
• US will also have to go beyond high-profile, highlevel meetings between senior leaders, and turns its
focus on issues that matter most to ordinary
people. CSOs should monitor and be involved.
40
aus; Zl; wif yg
Thank
You
onf
Q and A
41
Source: Myanmar in Transition, ADB August 2012
Myanmar in International Financial Institutions (IFIs)
IMF
IBRD
Established
1944
1944 1960 1956
Membership
188
187
Headquarters
Washington D.C., USA.
MYANMAR
Year joined
1952
IDA
172
IFC
184
1952 1962 1956
ADB
1966
67 (44 +17)
Manila,
Philippines.
1973
43
IFIs Board of Directors- Voting Power (Percentage)
APPOINTED
1. USA
2. Japan
3. Germany
4. UK
5. France
IMF(24) IBRD (25)
IDA((25) IFC(25)
ADB(12)
16.75
6.23
5.81
4.29
4.29
15.54
9.15
4.58
4.09
4.09
10. 81
8.58
5.56
5.54
3.80
22.73
5.66
5.17
4.86
4.86
12.82
12.82
3.81(11)
3.33(14)
2.05(22)
1.01(25)
5.47(12)
MAINLY ASEAN +
3.93 (10)
2.44 (21)
3.22 (16)
Myanmar
0.13
0.17
0.35
Australia, CenAsian +Cambodia+K+Pacific Islands
India,Afganistan,Bhutan, LPDR,Tajikistan,Turkmanistan
Canada,Netherlands + Nordic countries
Korea, Taipei China, SriLanka, Uzbezkistan, Austria, Luxembourg, Turkey
Philippines, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Maldives, Marshall Islands
France, Italy, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland
2.59(18)
0.06
6.18(11)
0.74
9.05(3)
8.47(4)
8.47(4)
7.42 (8)
6.43 (9)
6.22 (10)
ELECTED
CHINA
44