Transcript Gordon Slides - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Greening Freight:
Policy Options for Moving the EU Forward
Deborah Gordon
Carnegie Europe and Edelman-The Centre
Brussels
9 November 2011
Heavy-Duty Truck Roadmap
• Business-as-usual freight transport
o Growing truck dominance
o Growing diesel demand
o Growing climate burdens
• Public policy prescriptions
 Protect public health
 Reduce climate forcing
 Enhance energy and economic security
y
EU Energy and Economic Security
Issues Related to HDVs
• Reduce dependence on
dwindling diesel supplies and
oil imports
• Protect against unstable
global oil markets
• Maintain EU competitiveness
through production of future
fuel-efficient HDVs
• Avoid possible off-loading of
high-C HDVs from makers in
nations with GHG standards
Source: European Commission, European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (2008)
EU Climate Security Issues Related to HDVs
• EU to reduce emissions by 8095% below 1990 levels by 2050
• Growing GHGs in transport sector
requires a 60% reduction by 2050
(with respect to 1990)
• By 2030, the goal for transport will
be to reduce GHG emissions to
around 20% below their 2008 level
Source: European Commission, European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030
Current EU Freight Situation
1. Trucks haul 70+% EU freight
2. The EU HDV market is dominated by 7 major
manufacturers (accounting for 93% of EU
registrations)
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–
–
–
–
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DAF (Netherlands)
Daimler AG (Germany)
M.A.N. (Germany)
Renault (France)
Scandia (Sweden)
Volvo (Sweden)
Iveco (Italy)
3. Major EU HDV manufacturers account for an
estimated 40% of worldwide HDV production
4. The majority of freight operators are small in size,
with 85% having fewer than 10 vehicles
5. Major shipping companies determine which
technologies enter the marketplace by closely
watching fuel use, fuel price, and driving patterns
EU Freight
Business-as-usual Trends
• 31% more HDVs by 2030
• 27% more HDV travel by
2030
• HDV fuel economy could
deteriorate by ~3%
annually due to Euro VI
(2013)
Source: European Commission, European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (2008)
Growing HDT
Diesel Demands
• Long-haul trucks
account for 37%
diesel use in 2010
• HDV diesel use
projected to increase
21% by 2030
Source: European Commission, European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (2008)
Increasing HDT CO2
Emissions
• Trucks account for 85%
all freight CO2 (2010)
• Long-haul trucks
account for 39% of the
2030 emissions; fuel
saving potential is the
greatest of all
categories
• HDV CO2 emissions
increase in BAU of
15% from 2010 to 2030
EU Existing and Planned HDV-related Policies
• Conventional pollutant
emission standards
 Short-term climate forcing
 Balancing dual objectives (air
quality/climate)
• Driver training
 Reduce in-use GHGs
 Greater reduction when paired
with GHG standards
• HDV road fees
 Indirect GHG benefit
• GHG emission
standards
 Standards in progress
 Component efficiencies (tyres)
Source: AEA, Report to the European Commission, “Reduction and Testing of GHG
Emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles,” February 2011.
HDV Policies at EU Member State Level
• EU HDV GHG standards
should not be left to
individual states
 National variability too
great
 Long-haul and regional
delivery vehicles present
greatest opportunity for
GHG emission reduction
• State policies, especially
fiscal, can support EU
HDV GHG standards
 Reduce in-use GHGs
Source: AEA, Report to the European Commission, “Reduction and Testing of GHG Emissions from
Heavy Duty Vehicles,” February 2011.
A Way Forward:
HDV GHG Reduction Potential
HDV Technology Potential Improvement in Fuel Consumption (U.S.)
60%
Aero
Weight
Transmission
Mgmt & Coaching
50%
Engine
Tires & Wheels
Hybrid
Fuel consumption
reduction potential
35% – 50%
FC Benefit
40%
U.S. Comparison of 2015-2020
New Vehicle Potential Fuel
Savings Technology for Seven
Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer
(TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class
3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8
Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus
(Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and
Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b).
30%
20%
10%
0%
TT
Box
Bucket
Refuse
Bus
Coach
2b
SOURCES: ICCT, Moving the World,
December 1, 2010; TIAX (2009) at ES-4
Technologies Improve HDV Performance
• Technologies in the drivetrain and vehicle categories
can have a large impact on fuel consumption
 Hybridisation, dual fuel, lightweighting, automatic tire
pressure, automated transmission, aerodynamics, low
rolling resistance tyres, heat recovery,………
• For vehicles with an urban duty cycle with frequent
stop / start operation, hybrid vehicles offer the
highest benefit: savings of between 20% and 30%
• For HDVs on long-haul aerodynamic aids (e.g.
trailers) offer benefits: 10% reduction (and more)
PolicyStep:
landscape:
Across
Regions
Next
EUTimelines
Set HDV
GHG
Standards
Global Snapshot of Heavy-Duty Vehicle GHG and Fuel Economy Standards
Note: Text in red indicates expected, not actual
Frameworks Paving the Way on HDV GHG Regulatory Design
14
Policy Options to Reduce HDV CO2 Emissions
Direct Policies
• Performance (GHG)
Standards for HDVs
• Guaranteed timeline
• Technology forcing
• Requires enforcement
• Fuel Taxes
• Variable responsiveness
• Must be indexed to
inflation
• Self enforcing
Indirect/Supporting Policies
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•
•
•
•
•
Emissions trading
Labeling HDVs
Speed limits on HDVs
Driver training
Road user charges
Differentiated vehicle
purchase
taxes/incentives
Thank you
Deborah Gordon
Senior Associate
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Energy & Climate Program
Washington, DC
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/programs/
Program
Stringency Summary
for ModelHDV
Year 2017
U.S. Standards
for Improved
Performance
Largest reductions in the vehicle categories that use the most fuel
U.S. Standards (MY 2017): Largest Reductions in HDV Categories
HDV Technology Compendium