Transcript Chapter 16 Macroeconomic Policy in an open economy

Macroeconomic Policy
in an Open Economy
PowerPoint slides prepared by:
Andreea Chiritescu
Eastern Illinois University
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Economic Objectives of Nations
• Objectives of macroeconomic policy
•
•
•
•
Internal balance
External balance
Long-term economic growth
Reasonably equitable distribution of national
income
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Economic Objectives of Nations
• Internal balance
• Economic stability at full employment
• A fully employed economy
• No inflation
• External balance
• When it realizes neither deficits nor surpluses
in its current account
• Overall balance
• Internal balance and external balance
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Policy Instruments
• Expenditure-changing policies
• Alter the level of total spending (aggregate
demand) for goods and services
• Produced domestically and imported
• Fiscal policy
• Changes in government spending and taxes
• Monetary policy
• Changes in the money supply and interest rates
• Central bank
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Policy Instruments
• Expenditure-switching policies
• Modify the direction of demand
• Shifting it between domestic output and imports
• Under fixed exchange rates and trade deficit
• Devalue its currency
• Under managed floating exchange-rate and to
increase its competitiveness
• Depreciate its currency
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Policy Instruments
• Direct controls
• Government restrictions on the market
economy
• To control particular items in the current
account
• To restrain capital outflows
• To stimulate capital inflows
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Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
• Aggregate demand-aggregate supply model
• Aggregate demand curve (AD)
• Level of real output (real GDP) purchased at
alternative price levels during a given year
• Spending by domestic consumers, by businesses, by
government, and by foreign buyers (net exports)
• As the price level falls
• The quantity of real output demanded increases
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Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
• Aggregate demand-aggregate supply model
• Aggregate supply curve (AS)
• Relation between the level of prices and amount of
real output that will be produced by the economy
during a given year
• Upward sloping
• Per-unit production costs and prices increase as real
output increases
• Equilibrium: AD = AS
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Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
• Shifts in aggregate demand curve
• Changes in the determinants of AD
• Consumption, investment, government purchases,
or net exports
• Shifts in the aggregate supply curve
• Changes in the price of resources, technology,
business expectations
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FIGURE 16.1 Macroeconomic equilibrium: the aggregate
demand-aggregate supply model
The economy is in equilibrium where the aggregate demand curve intersects the aggregate
supply curve. This intersection determines the equilibrium price level and output for the
economy. Increases (decreases) in aggregate demand or aggregate supply result in rightward
(leftward) shifts in these curves.
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TRADE
CONFLICTS
Monetary and fiscal policy respond
to financial turmoil in the economy
• 2008-2009 recession
• Federal Reserve
• Lowering the federal funds rate target to virtually
zero
• Expanded its role as lender of last resort
• Credit to banks and other financial institutions as well as
businesses
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TRADE
CONFLICTS
Monetary and fiscal policy respond
to financial turmoil in the economy
• 2008-2009 recession
• U.S. government – Economic Stimulus Act of
2008
• $113 billion (0.8% of GDP) – one-time tax rebates
to lower- and middle-income individuals and
households
• To be spent immediately
• Hoping to increase the aggregate demand
• Only 10-20% of the tax rebate dollars were spent
• The rest: household saving or for paying down past debt
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TRADE
CONFLICTS
Monetary and fiscal policy respond
to financial turmoil in the economy
• 2009, Barack Obama
• Fiscal stimulus program of $789 billion
• $507 billion in spending programs
• $282 billion in tax relief
• Designed to increase the aggregate demand
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Closed
Economy
• If aggregate output is too low and
unemployment is too high
• Government - increase aggregate demand for
real output
• Expansionary monetary or fiscal policies
• Increase in the country’s real GDP
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Closed
Economy
• If inflation is troublesome
• Government - reduce the level of aggregate
demand for real output
• Contractionary monetary or fiscal policy
• Upward pressure on prices is softened and inflation
moderates
• Expansionary monetary or fiscal policy
• Increase in aggregate demand
• Increase in domestic consumption, investment, or
government spending
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FIGURE 16.2 Effect of an expansionary monetary or fiscal
policy on equilibrium real GDP (a)
(a) Expansionary monetary or fiscal policy in a closed economy.
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Open
Economy
• Expansionary monetary or fiscal policy
• Initial effect: Increase in aggregate demand
• Increase in domestic consumption, investment, or
government spending
• Secondary effect: Increase or decrease in
aggregate demand
• Changing net exports and other determinants of
aggregate demand
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Open
Economy
• If the initial and secondary effects - increases
in aggregate demand
• Strengthened effect of expansionary policy
• If the initial and secondary effects - conflicting
impacts
• Weakened effect
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Open
Economy
• Expansionary fiscal policy; fixed exchange rates
• Initial effect: Increase aggregate demand
• Secondary effect: Increase aggregate demand
• Budget deficit; Higher interest rate
• Increased demand for domestic currency in foreigncurrency market
• Purchase foreign currency with domestic currency
• Increase in the domestic money supply
• Increase the amount of loanable funds
• Fiscal policy - strengthened under fixed
exchange rates
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Open
Economy
• Expansionary monetary policy; fixed exchange
rates
• Initial effect: Increase aggregate demand
• Reduce the domestic interest rate
• Increased consumption and investment
• Secondary effect: Reduce aggregate demand
• Decreasing demand for currency
• Purchase domestic currency with foreign currency
• Decrease in money supply and loanable funds
• Monetary policy - weakened under fixed
exchange rates
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Open
Economy
• Expansionary monetary policy; floating
exchange rates
• Initial effect: Increase aggregate demand
• Reduce the domestic interest rate
• Increased consumption and investment
• Secondary effect: Increase aggregate demand
• Domestic currency depreciates
• Increase in exports, decrease in imports,
improvement in current account
• Monetary policy – strengthened under floating
exchange rates
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Open
Economy
• Expansionary fiscal policy; floating exchange
rates
• Initial effect: Increase aggregate demand
• Secondary effect: Decrease aggregate demand
• Budget deficit; Higher interest rate
• Increased demand for domestic currency in the
foreign-exchange market
• Domestic currency appreciates; Falling exports
• Rising imports, Deteriorating current account
• Fiscal policy – weakened, floating exchange
rates
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FIGURE 16.2 Effect of an expansionary monetary or fiscal
policy on equilibrium real GDP (b)
(b) Expansionary monetary policy or fiscal policy in an open economy. (1) The policy’s initial
and secondary effects reinforce each other. (2) The policy’s initial and secondary effects
conflict with each other.
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TABLE 16.1 The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy
in promoting internal balance for an economy
with a high degree of capital mobility
Exchange-Rate Regime
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Floating exchange rates
Strengthened
Weakened
Fixed exchange rates
Weakened
Strengthened
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TRADE
CONFLICTS
Does crowding occur in an open
economy?
• Crowding out
• Increased government expenditures and the
subsequent budget deficits
• Private consumption or investment spending
decreasing
• Higher interest rates caused by budget deficits
• Government deficits
• Don’t necessarily squeeze out private spending
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TRADE
CONFLICTS
Does crowding occur in an open
economy?
• Recessions
• People are not spending all of the available funds
• Consumers are saving more than businesses intend to
invest
• Deficit-financed government spending doesn’t
crowd out private spending
• Extent of crowding out
• Lessened in an open economy with capital flows
• Inflows of capital from abroad keep interest rates lower
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Macroeconomic Stability and the Current
Account: Policy Agreement vs. Policy Conflict
• Recession + current account deficit
• Floating exchange rates
• Expansionary monetary policy to combat
recession
• Currency depreciation
• Rise in exports and fall in imports
• Reduce the current account deficit
• A single economic policy promotes overall
balance
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Macroeconomic Stability and the Current
Account: Policy Agreement vs. Policy Conflict
• Inflation + current account deficit
• Contractionary monetary policy to combat
inflation
• Increase in domestic interest rate
• Currency appreciation
• Fall in exports and rise in imports
• Larger current-account deficit
• Policy conflict: monetary policy (or fiscal
policy) alone will not restore both internal and
external balance
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Inflation With Unemployment
• Inflation with unemployment
• Internal balance cannot be achieved just by
manipulating aggregate demand
• Reduce AD to decrease inflation
• Increase AD to decrease unemployment
• Overall balance - three separate targets
• Current-account equilibrium
• Full employment
• Price stability
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International Economic-Policy Coordination
• Economic relations among nations
• Conflict
• Independence
• Integration
• Policy cooperation
• Officials from different nations meet to
evaluate world economic conditions
• Policy coordination
• Formal agreement among nations to initiate
particular policies
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FIGURE 16.3 Relations among national governments
Relations among national governments can be visualized along a spectrum ranging from
policy conflict to policy interdependence. Between these extremes are a variety of forms of
cooperation and coordination.
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TRADE
CONFLICTS
G-20 agrees to cooperate on global economic
policy: international policy coordination
• World economy - out of balance with the U.S.
• U.S. – most of the global current-account
deficit
• China, Japan, and Germany – most of the
global surplus
• United States
• Consumed more than it produced
• Invested more than it saved
• Borrowed from trading partners
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TRADE
CONFLICTS
G-20 agrees to cooperate on global economic
policy: international policy coordination
• 2009, Group of 20 nations - The G-20 plan:
• Coordinate macroeconomic policies
• Foster balanced economic growth
• China and Japan - rely less on exports and more
on domestic consumption
• The U.S. - curtail its budget deficit
• Europe - difficult structural reforms to increase
business investment
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TRADE
CONFLICTS
G-20 agrees to cooperate on global economic
policy: international policy coordination
• G-20
• Members will need periodically to review each
nation’s policies
• Act by moral suasion, not sanctions
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International Economic-Policy Coordination
• Obstacles to successful policy coordination
• Some nations give higher priority to price
stability, or to full employment, than others
• Some nations have a stronger legislature
• Or weaker trade unions, than others
• The party pendulums in different nations
• Shift with elections occurring in different years
• One nation may experience economic recession
• While another nation experiences rapid inflation
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International Economic-Policy Coordination
• Plaza Agreement of 1985, G-5
• The United States, Japan, Germany, Great
Britain, and France
• Overvalued U.S. dollar
• Twin U.S. deficits (trade and federal budget)
were too large
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International Economic-Policy Coordination
• Plaza Agreement of 1985, G-5
• Each country
• Specific pledges on macroeconomic policy
• Agreed to initiate coordinated sales of the dollar
• By 1986, dollar had dramatically depreciated
• Louvre Accord of 1987, G-5
• New concern: uncontrolled dollar plunge
• Intervention policies – curbing the pace of the
dollar’s depreciation
• Other macroeconomic adjustments
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International Economic-Policy Coordination
• 2000, G-7
• The United States, Canada, Japan, the United
Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy
• Coordinated purchases of the euro to boost its
value
• From $0.84 per euro to more than $0.88 per
euro
• Within two weeks following the intervention,
the euro’s value slid to an all-time low
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