Transcript Ms Dorte Ekelund - National Statistical Service

Planning Australia’s major cities:
Creating an evidence base
Dorte Ekelund
Executive Director
Major Cities Unit
Presentation to the NATSTATS 2010 Conference, Sydney
16 September 2010
Outline

Federal Government
involvement in cities
-
State of Australian Cities 2010
-
National urban policy

What do we need to know?
-
Defining urban
-
Indicators for effective urban
policy and planning

What are we measuring?
-
Reliability and consistency
-
Causal versus correlated data
Transforming our Cities
 1950s
- Housing
 1970s
- Services
 1990s
- Regeneration
 2007 +
- Infrastructure Australia
- Major Cities Unit
- COAG Reform
Pyrmont Bridge 2006
National planning criteria for cities
 A national objective for cities
that they are:
-
Globally competitive
Productive
Sustainable
Liveable
Socially inclusive
 National criteria for strategic
planning systems
- State governments to meet criteria by
2012
- Linked to federal infrastructure
funding
Developing national urban policy
Phase 1
• Gather the evidence
• State of Australian Cities 2010
Phase 2
• Prepare options
• A strategy for Australian Cities
State of Australian Cities 2010
 A national snapshot of
Australia’s cities
 An evidence base to:
- generate debate
- present challenges
- highlight trends
- measure progress
- develop policy
http://www/infrastructure.gov.au/mcu
Defining ‘urban’ - What is a city?
Australia: an ‘urban’ nation
 75 % population
live in 17 major
cities over
100,000
 82% in cities
over 30,000
Cities
30,000 50,000
2%
Rest of
Australia
18%
2 Cities
> 3 million
39% of total
population
Cities
50,000 100,000
5%
Cities
100,000250,000
6%
Cities
250,000 1 million
8%
3 Cities
1-3 million
22%
Where are city boundaries?
 Spatial aggregation
- Statistical v Local Government v
Metropolitan v Conurbation
- Cities within cities
- Expanding urban boundaries
- Peri-urban areas
 Policy implications
- Tracking change over time
- Scale
- Density
- ‘Per capita’ indicators
City indicators
 Themes
- Productivity
- Sustainability
- Liveability
 What do we need to know?
- Where are we now?
- Where are we going?
 What are we measuring?
-
Gaps
Overlaps
Interrelationships
Causes or correlations
Interpreting the data
Population growth
2056
2056
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Perth
Adelaide
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
2026
2026
2056
2006
2056
2006
2026
2026
2056
2006
2026
2006
2006
2056
2056
2006
2006
2056
2006
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2009) Population Projections 2006-2100. ABS cat 3220.0
What are we measuring?
Population projections
 Multiple projections
- ABS v Treasury IGR 3 v States v
Agencies (eg. Health)
 Policy sensitive
projections
- Components of growth
- Projected v Planned v Targets
- eg. Fertility v Immigration v
Labour force
 Spatial projections
- Combining location and nature
of growth
Productivity
Economic importance of cities
 76% of employment
 80% of economic activity (GDP)
 84% of economic growth (2003-2008)
 Gateways to the global economy
What are we measuring?
Contribution of cities to productivity
 Isolating factors in the city
system
- Eg. Urban congestion
Perth
Brisbane
Sydney
 Dangers of extrapolating
state data to cities
- Eg. Queensland
Melbourne
 Identifying contribution of
Adelaide
cities to regional economic
activity
 Eg. mining and agriculture
(research, distribution,
administration, finance)
SOAC 2010 p. 18
0
60
100
GDP per Capita ($US ‘000)
Sustainability
Total Greenhouse Contribution of Australian Transport
250000
International shipping
Gg (total CO2 equivalent emissions)
200000
International aviation
Emissions for international
transport, to and from Australia,
are estimated using half of total
fuel use.
Domestic marine
150000
Domestic aviation
Rail
100000
Road
Base case
projections
50000
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Note: total warming effects - includes both directly radiative gases and indirectly radiative gases.
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2009), BITRE estimates
What are we measuring?
Recent trends in car use
 Measures of progress
Source: Stanley, J. 2010 Moving People
Liveability
Housing diversity
3.4
3.2
Bedrooms
per dwelling
WA
QLD
NSW
VIC
3.0
SA
Houses
are
getting
bigger...
2.8
NSW
QLD
VIC
WA
SA
2.6
2.4
Persons per
household
2005–06
2003–04
2002–03
2000–01
1999–00
1997–98
1996–97
1995–96
1994–95
2.2
Year
Source: BITRE analysis of ABS 2007 Cat. No. 4130.0.55.001
but
households
are getting
smaller!
What are we measuring?
Community wellbeing indicators
 Need for indicators
 Accessibility
 Natural landscapes
 Quality open space
 Safety
 Legibility
 What’s important to
whom?




Real
Perceived
Quality
Quantity
Interpreting the data
Indices
 City indices
 Issue- specific indices
 SEIFA
 VAMPIRE
 Social inclusion
 Resources +
Participation
- Choice
- Opportunity
- Capability
Brisbane 2006 Dodson and Sipe
(2008) Unsettling the suburbs. Urban
Research Program, Griffith University
Conclusion
 Limitations
- Data gaps
- especially about the
contribution of cities to
productivity, sustainability,
liveability
- Lack of comparability
- Different scales
- Different methodologies
- Different purposes
Conclusion
 Need a suite of indicators
- Consistent geographies
- Consistent time series data
- More open data sources
- Measures of progress not just of
problems
- Separating causes from correlations
- Better appreciation of
interrelationships between built
environment and economic, social
and environmental outcomes
- Considering alternative futures
Complex systems
“If you think you know all about a city, it’s probably just a town.”
Peter Carey, 30 Days in Sydney.
Pyrmont
Bridge c1900
Dynamic systems
Thank you
Pyrmont Bridge 2006