Transcript DMA 2013 Swiecki Power Point

Preparing the Workforce for the
Automotive Technology of 2025
OCC/DMA/WIN
Fall Conference
November 8, 2013
Bernard Swiecki
Center for Automotive Research (CAR)
Industry Collaboration &
Partnerships
The Center for Automotive Research
brings together stakeholders for thought
leadership and industry education.
CAR collaborative working groups:
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Automotive Communities Partnership (ACP)
Connected Vehicle Working Group
United Tooling Coalition (UTC)
Program for Automotive Labor and Education (PALE)
Electric Vehicle Working Group
Advanced Automotive Information Technology Solutions Consortia
Coalition for Automotive Light-weighting Materials (CALM)
CAR’s flagship event, August 5-8
Now in its 48th year – a “can’t miss” event
More than 900 attendees
Sessions on manufacturing, materials, connected vehicles, policy,
sales forecasting, purchasing, strategy, & capital investment
More information at www.cargroup.org
Name a product … ?
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•
•
Which consists of nearly 30,000 parts,
Can be assembled at the rate of 1 per minute,
16 hours a day, 200 days a year,
Runs for several years, most of the time without
a single manufacturing defect?
• Is from the largest manufacturing sector in the
U.S. economy.
This accomplishment by the auto industry to
execute mass production has become the norm.
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales
Percent Change YTD Through October:
2013 vs. 2012
Total
12,979,521
+ 986,539
100.0%
Light
Trucks
6,419,453
+ 676,018
49.5%
Passenger
Cars
6,560,068
+ 310,521
50.5%
Source: Automotive News; CAR Research
8.2%
11.8%
5.0%
U.S. Market Share:
YTD October 2013
GM
Units: 2,343,861
Ford
Units: 2,078,939
Toyota
Units: 1,867,155
FiatChrysler
Units: 1,497,086
Honda
Units: 1,273,550
HyundaiKia
Units: 1,057,910
Nissan
Units: 1,032,134
Source: Automotive News; CAR Research
18.1%
16.0%
14.4%
11.5%
9.8%
8.2%
8.0%
U.S. Light Vehicle Monthly Sales and SAAR
October 2011 – October 2013
1.8
13.313.6 13.6
14.2
14.9
14.414.4 14.1 14.114.5
14.3
13.8
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.0
15.615.415.215.3
1.0 1.0
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
15.3
15.2
1.5
1.4
1.2
16
15.9
1.4
1.3
1.1
15.816.1
15.5
1.515.3 15.2 14
1.4
1.3
12
1.1
1.2
1.0
0.9
10
8
0.8
6
0.6
4
0.4
2
0.2
0
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Monthly Sales (Millions)
1.6
15.1
SAAR
Source: Automotive News; CAR Research
Monthly SAAR
SALES
Big 7 Monthly U.S. Market Share
1999 – 2013 YTD (October)
35%
Ford
GM
Chrysler
Honda
Hyundai-Kia
Nissan
Toyota
30%
Percent of U.S. Market Sales
29.4%
25%
24.7%
20%
18.0%
15%
16.0%
14.4%
15.6%
11.5%
9.8%
8.2%
8.0%
10%
8.7%
5%
6.4%
4.0%
0% 1.8%
Year
Source: Automotive News; CAR Research
Motor Vehicle & Parts Manufacturing Employment
1999 – July 2013
Michigan
400,000
50% change
316,300
681,500
64% change
153,500
53% change
600,000
148,500
400,000
81,500
105,100
200,000
50,000
0
800,000
47% change
70,200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 July
2013
Source: BLS, U.S. DOL
0
U.S.
State Level
1,000,000
200,000
100,000
U.S.
1,200,000
250,000
150,000
Ohio
1,130,900
350,000
300,000
Indiana
Per Vehicle Profits*, North America
2006—2013/1stH
$3,000
$3,000
$1,921
$2,000
$1,391
$1,000
$2,058
$2,275
$2,124
$2,000
$1,543
$1,094
$1,120
$995
$975
$1,000
$452
$(306)
$$(1,000)
$-
Detroit Three
$(1,054)
$(1,416)
Toyota and Honda
$(2,000)
$(1,000)
$(2,000)
$(3,308) $(3,229)
$(3,000)
$(3,000)
$(4,000)
$(4,000)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
*EBIT or automotive operating income per vehicle sold. Global average for Chrysler figure. Honda excludes
motorcycle, finance, and power products.
1H 2013
Quarterly GDP Growth Rate
07/1Q – 13/2Q
6.0
4.9
4.0
2.0
3.9
3.1 2.7
1.3
0.3
-2.0
-4.0
1.6
-2.7
2.8
1.4
2.5
1.2
1.1
0.1
-0.4
0.0
3.7
3.2
2.8 2.8
2.0
1.5
3.9
-1.3
-2.0
-5.4
-6.0
-8.0
-8.3
-10.0
1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q
2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Open Market Committee
Auto Sales and Economic Growth are Disconnected
U.S. GDP Growth Rate and Vehicle Sales Growth Rate
1952 – Q2 2013
GDP Growth
12.0
40
10.0
30
GDP Growth Rate
8.0
20
6.0
10
4.0
0
2.0
-10
0.0
-2.0
-20
-4.0
-30
52
57
62
67
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
72
77
82
87
92
97
02
07
12
Vehicle Sales Growth Rate
Sales Growth
They are Getting Old . . .
U.S. Light Vehicle Age and
Scrappage Rate
Average Age
8.6
8.8
8.8
6.78
8.9
6.74
5.88 5.76
8.9
9.0
9.1
9.4
Scrappage Rate (%)
9.5
9.7
9.8 10.0
6.40 6.19
5.50
4.76
5.03 5.24
4.35
10.3
5.66
10.6
5.21
10.9
11.2 11.4
4.90
4.12
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: R.L. Polk
Unemployment Rate
January 2008 – July 2013
Michigan
15%
Indiana
Ohio
U.S.
14.2%
14%
13%
12%
10.8%
11%
10.6%
10%
10.0%
9%
8%
7%
10.6%
8.8%
8.7%
8.4%
7.1%
6% 5.7%
5% 5.0%
4% 4.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
7.4%
7.2%
U.S. Light Vehicle
CAR Sales Forecast: 2007-2016
18
16
8.3%
16.1
13.3%
13.2
14
12
16.0
16.2
16.2
2013
2014
2015
2016
14.5
10.4%
11.6%
15.7
12.8
11.6
10.4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2007
2008
Source: CAR Research, Oct. 2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
U.S. Vehicle Production &
Automotive Employment Forecasts
2013-2016
Employment not
growing much:
• Third party workers
• More imported parts
and components
• More overtime and
temporary workers 14,000,000
• High productivity rate
800,000
12,000,000
700,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
600,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
Vehicle Production
Automotive Employment
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
8,669,700
10,375,257
11,000,000
11,300,000
11,500,000
11,400,000
603,400
647,500
670,000
688,000
700,000
695,000
Source: Automotive News; CAR Research; BLS, July 2013
500,000
Employment
Production
10,000,000
Manufacturing Efficiency
Taiichi Ohno: Toyota
Production System
Global Supply Chains
Flexible Manufacturing
& Industrial Robotics
Global Platforms
Digital Engineering &
Manufacturing
EPA Estimate gCO2/Mile Standard
310
290
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
Grams
CO2/mile
Equivalent Fuel Economy Standard (MPG)
Fuel Economy Regulation
Projections
60
55
CAFE mpg
54.5
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Source: EPA and NHTSA
Fuel Economy & Safety
The most likely dramatic changes for the
automotive market through 2025 could
well be a result of mandates by the federal
government to improve the fuel economy
performance and vehicle safety
North American Automotive Manufacturing
and R&D Clusters, 2011
Auto:
Over 1M U.S. jobs (incl. spinoff)
Over $12B/year private R&D in
Michigan
© Center for Automotive Research, April 2013
Automotive Innovation
New technologies … what’s coming next ?
• Powertrain
• Materials
(Lightweighting and
Crashworthiness)
• Electronics
• Safety
• Road use
• Convenience
• Many supportive ones
Percent Fuel Consumption Reduction
Assessment of Technologies for
Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel
Economy – Over 40 Technologies
35.0%
30.0%
High Impact - Strategic
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
Incremental – Low Risk
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
* Preceding Technology Required Source: NAS 2011
22
Average Material Content of
North American Light Vehicles
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
Image: Porsche
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1995
Data source: Wards
2000
2005
2010
Average Material Content of
North American Light Vehicles
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
Image: Porsche
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1995
Data source: Wards
2000
2005
2010
Joining Complexity Increasing
Resistance Spot
Welding
Joining
Laser Welding
Adhesives
Fasteners
2014 Corvette Stingray:
A Future Direction for Materials
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•
•
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•
New body shop for aluminum frame
Carbon fiber hood and roof and interior
Carbon-nano composite underbody panels
Magnesium frame seat
SMC fenders, doors and rear
quarter panels & hatch
– Extrusions, castings and sheet
(castings 2mm – 11mm)
– Hydro formed tubes
• Magnesium structural chassis
components
• Joining: adhesive, laser welding,
fasteners, spot welding
Photo Source: General Motors
Key Material Trends (Next 10 years)
• Increased use of ultra high strength steel
for structural components around the
“safety cage” to prevent intrusion
• Aluminum use for chassis and exterior
panels is increasing
• Fiber reinforced plastics (glass and carbon)
for structural components are still several
years away from high volume production
• Joining complexity: more laser welding,
fasteners and adhesives
Structural Adhesive
Driver Attention & Connected Vehicles
connectivity is increasing
Top 3 features consumers want:
1.
Wireless Communications
(bundle of many features)
glance sequences
2.
Navigation
3.
Automatic Crash Notification
Connected Vehicles Defined
• Connected vehicles use any of a number of different
wireless communication technologies to communicate
with:
– Each other
– Roadside infrastructure
– The “Cloud”
• Goals for connected vehicles are to enhance
– Vehicle and roadway safety
– Mobility
– Environment (e.g., reduced fuel consumption)
Implications for Investment of Convergence and
Self-Driving Vehicles
Crash elimination: Crash-free driving and
improved vehicle safety could change the
concept of a vehicle as we know it
Improved energy efficiency: Reduced
energy consumption in at least three
ways: more efficient driving; lighter,
more fuel-efficient vehicles; and efficient
infrastructure
Reduced need for new infrastructure:
Self-driving can reduce the need for
building new infrastructure and reduce
maintenance costs
Data challenges: Issues related to data
security, privacy, and data analytics and
aggregation could crop up due to
abundance of data in vehicles
Travel time dependability: Convergence
can substantially reduce uncertainty in
travel times via real-time, predictive
assessment of travel times on all routes
New models for vehicle ownership: Selfdriving vehicles could lead to a major
redefinition of vehicle ownership and
expand opportunities for vehicle sharing
Productivity improvements: Convergence
will allow travelers to make use of travel
time productively
New business models and scenarios:
Convergence of technologies may realign
industries such that ecosystem
participants need to compete and
collaborate at the same time
Industry Challenge
 Severe shortage of technical skills
 Chicken-and-egg challenge with many technologies
 electrification/alternative fuels
 Materials supply chain
 Connectivity – retrofitting, infrastructure/automobile
 Predictive modeling: CAE
 Powertrain control systems
 Materials forming and crash performance
 Structures
 Fabrication (molding, hot forming, stamping
AHSS/aluminum, …)
 Joining (RSW, laser, adhesives, fasteners)
 Greater industry collaboration
 Standards (material, testing, …)
Thank You
Center for Automotive Research