Transcript Non-Observed Economy

Non-Observed
Economy
Clementina Ivan-Ungureanu
Training: Essential SNA: Building the basics
Addis Ababa, 13-16 February 2012
NOE
• The main objective of accounts is to offer
an exhaustive description of an economy.
• Problem due to lack of coverage in NA:
– For users: understanding the economy
both in terms of levels and trends
– For national accountants: imbalances in
the internal consistency of accounts
because some economic transactions are
not measured
Why is this important?
• Comparability of GDP across countries
and time
• Contributions and subsidies based on GDP
• Growth rates if Unobserved growth ≠
Observed Growth
• Economic/fiscal policy
• GDP per capita, emissions, debt, deficit %
of GDP
Content
I.
II.
III.
IV.
Definition of NOE
Measurement methods
Special issues: illegal activities
Plan for strategy implementation
I. DEFINITION
NOE
Results: using simplistic assumptions, the
users understand that the GDP figures
published by NSO are underestimates.
How to avoid?
- Measurement program for improving the
exhaustiveness of data, with clear
objectives, roles and responsibilities for
national accountants and for survey
statisticians,
- Proper quality management for NOE
estimation
Terms used
• NOE, black economy, grey, shadow,
alternate, clandestine, hidden,
invisible, parallel, secondary,
unofficial, informal, underground
economy
 often not clear what is meant
 negative connotation
Conceptual background
• The 2008 System of National Accounts
• Measuring the Non-Observed Economy,
a Handbook (2002) – jointly prepared
by OECD, IMF, ILO and CIS StatCom
• Eurostat Pilot Projects on
Exhaustiveness in 1998 and 2002 –
Guidelines on Tabular Frameworks
• NOE in national accounts- Survey of
Country Practices, UN, 2008
What is NOE
• Non-observed economy (NOE) refers to all
productive activities that may not be captured in
the basic data sources used for compiling national
accounts.
• The following activities are included: underground,
informal (including those undertaken by households
for their own final use), illegal, and other activities
omitted due to deficiencies in the basic data
collection program.
The term ‘non-observed economy’ encompasses all of
these activities and the related statistical estimation
problems.
Source: Non-Observed Economy in national accounts, Survey of Country l Practices, United Nations, 2008
NOE problem areas
OECD Handbook outlines 5 problem
areas:
1) Underground activities
2) Illegal activities
3) Household Production for Own Final
Use
4) Non-Observed Informal activities
5) Deficiencies in Data Collection
1. Underground activities
• All legal productive activities that are
deliberately concealed from public
authorities to avoid:
– payment of income taxes or VAT
– payment of social security contributions
– meeting certain legal standards e.g.
minimum wages
– complying with administrative procedures
e.g filling out statistical questionnaires or
other forms
2. Illegal activities
Those productive activities specifically
covered by SNA production boundary
that:
– generate goods and services forbidden
by law (e.g. production and
distribution of illegal drugs) ;
– are unlawful when carried out by
unauthorized producers (e.g.
unlicensed practice of medicine).
3.Production of households for
own final use
Productive activities that result in goods or
services consumed or capitalized by the
households that produced them, such as:
– production of crops and livestock;
– production of other goods for their own end
use;
– construction of own houses and other ownaccount fixed capital formation;
– imputed rents of owner-occupiers,
- services of paid domestic servants
4.Non-Observed informal activity
Informal activities are:
- conducted by unincorporated enterprises
- in the household sector that are unregistered
- and that have some market production.
Characterised by:
- a low level of organisation,
- informal employment relations (e.g. oral
agreements)
- little or no division between labour and capital
as factors of production, on a small scale
5. Deficiencies in data collection
a. Under-coverage of enterprises in whole or in part
- an enterprise is new and has not yet been included
in the survey frameworks;
– an enterprise falls below the size cut-off for
surveys;
– an enterprise has been incorrectly classified by
type of activity or by region and thus improperly
excluded from the survey frame;
– an enterprise has not been entered in the
statistical register, regardless of its desire to be,
because of the lack of efficiency of the statistical
system, or due to the fact that registers are not
updated, for instance.
5. Deficiencies in data collection (cont)
b. Non response by enterprises is depending
on the sensitivity of the statistical system:
enterprises are included in the sample but
no data are collected from them and no
imputation is made for the missing
observations, because:
– the survey questionnaire was wrongly
addressed;
– the enterprise, or part of it, did not return
the questionnaire, they do not want to
answer.
5. Deficiencies in data
collection (cont)
c. Under-reporting by enterprises : data
is obtained from enterprises, but is
misreported by the respondent, or
correct data is received but is
inappropriately input or weighted.
Problem areas of NOE
Observed Economy
Underground activities
Registered/reported
activities
Illegal activities
Production of households for
own final use
Deficiencies in data collection
Informal activities
Nonobserved
Observed
Eurostat N1-N7 framework
• Introduced for the Pilot Projects on
Exhaustiveness in 2002
• Starting point the characteristics of
producers (registered or not, surveyed
or not)
• Four main categories: Non-registered;
Not surveyed; Misreporting; Other
Eurostat N1-N7 framework (cont)
• Defines standard set of nonexhaustiveness types (N1 to N7) and
presents them in a tabular framework;
• Provides a comprehensive and systematic
assessment to ensure exhaustiveness of
NA;
• Facilitates cross-country comparisons of
adjustments and adjustment methods and
provides for similar level of coverage of
NA.
I Not registered
N1 - Producer deliberately not registering – underground:
not register to avoid tax and social security obligations.
Producers that do not register because they are engaged in
illegal activities fall under type N2.
N2 - Producers deliberately not registering – illegal : are
involved in illegal activities. Type N2 excludes illegal
activities by registered legal entities or entrepreneurs that
report (or misreport) their activities under legal activity
codes.
N3 - Producers not required to register because it has no
market output (non-market household producers that
engage in production of goods for own consumption, for
own fixed capital formation, and construction of and
repairs to dwellings. Or, producer has some market output
but it is below the level at which the producer is obliged to
register as an entrepreneur
II Not surveyed
N4 - Legal persons not surveyed due to several reasons
such as: the business register is out of date or updating
procedures are inadequate; the classification data
(activity, size or geographic codes) are incorrect; the
legal person is excluded from the survey frame because
its size is below a certain threshold etc.
N5 - Registered entrepreneurs not surveyed for a variety
of reasons: the statistical office does not conduct a
survey of registered entrepreneurs; the registered
entrepreneur is not in the list of registered entrepreneurs
available to the statistical office, or if available, is
systematically excluded from it; the registered
entrepreneur is not in the survey frame because the
classification data (activity code, size code, geographic
code) are incorrect.
III Misreporting
N6 - Producers deliberately misreporting
in order to evade income tax, VAT, other
taxes, or social security contributions.
IV. Other
N7 - Other statistical deficiencies
• N7a: data that are incomplete, not
collected or not directly collectable;
• N7b: data that are incorrectly handled,
processed or compiled by statisticians.
Areas : non-response; production for own
final use by market producers; tips;
wages and salaries in kind; and secondary
activities.
Standard tables
The Tabular Approach involves the completion of three
standard tables both for output and expenditure
approaches:
1. Elements of non-exhaustiveness (detailed breakdown
by type of unit, activity, non-exhaustiveness type and
adjustment procedure);
2. Exhaustiveness adjustments (including the absolute
and relative size of the adjustments listed above);
3. Summary of adjustments (by institutional sector and
NACE activity or expenditure component).
Basis for NA Figures
Surve Admi Ext
ys +
nistrat rap
estim ive
olat
ate
data
ion
+
mo
dels
Production
approach
Output of goods
and services
(basic prices) 17
(NACE)
Intermediate
consumption (17
(NACE)
Gross value
added (basic
prices) 17
(NACE)
Taxes on
products
Subsidies on
products
Residual item
GDP
Oth
er
T
o
t
a
l
Adjustments
Data
validation
adjustmen
ts
Conc
eptual
adjust
ments
Explicit
exhausti
veness
adjustm
ents
Balanci
ng
adjustm
ents
Fin
al
esti
mat
e
Basis
Sur
vey
s+
esti
mat
e
Expenditure
approach
Total final
expenditure
HFC- COICOP 2digit
NPISH f.c
GGFC
Gross capital
formation
GFCF
Changes in
inventories
Acquisition less
disposals of valuables
Exports of goods and
services
Goods
Services
Imports of goods and
services
Goods
Services
Residual item
GDP
for NA Figures
Ad
Extra
min polati
istr
on+
ativ
model
e
s
dat
a
O
t
h
e
r
Tot
al
Adjustments
Data
Conc
validati
eptual
on
adjust
adjustm
ments
ents
Explicit
exhausti
veness
adjustm
ents
Balanci
ng
adjustm
ents
Fin
al
esti
mat
e
All economic activities
of all enterprises
Enterprises not in scope of enterprise
survey or administrative source
Enterprise not
registered
Enterprises in scope of enterprise
survey or administrative source
Enterprise
registered
Response or non-response
correctly handled
Non-response
incorrectly handled
N7b
Enterprise
should have
registered
Enterprise
not obliged
to register
N3
Legal
person
Registered
entrepreneur
Enterprise underreports
N6
Underground
activities
Illegal
activities
Not in
register
N1
N2
N4a
In register
not
surveyed
N4b
Not in
register
N5a
In register
,not
surveyed
N5b
Enterprise
reports
correctly
All
required
data are
collected
Not all
required
data are
collected
N7a
Example
• Country specific : phenomena,
legislation, the magnitude of the NOE
• Analysis of data sources and methods
• Identification the types of NOE
• Identification of all possible statistical
and administrative sources
• Defining the methods to estimate
Albania
ECONOMY
Illegal activities
Legal
activities
N2
Registered units
Legal persons
Non-registered
units
Entrepreneurs-self
employed
Is not necessary
N3
In BR and NOT in statistical
surveys ( administrative. data)
N4;N5
In BR and
statistical
survey
To avoid to pay taxes
N1
Taxi
drivers
Not in BR but in
administrative data
N4;N5
agriculture
construction
Reported
Under
reported
N6
Reported
Under
reporting
N6
Incomplete data;
not direct
collected N7
Tips
Wages in
kind
Reported
Under
reportingN6
Private
lessons
Rent of the
house
II. Measurement
methods
Country
Year
Bulgaria
Czech
Republic
Estonia
Hungary
2001
Austria
Belgium
Italy
2001
2002
2003
Australia
Norway
20001995
2000
2002
2000
NOE
% in
GDP
Country
New EU Members
10.2 Poland
Romania
6.6
9.6 Latvia
11.9 Lithuania
OECD-EU Members
7.9 Spain
4.0 Sweden
16.7 Netherlands
OECD Non-EU Members
1.3 Mexico
2.4 USA
Year
NOE %
in GDP
2002
15.7
2002
17
2000
2002
13.6
18.9
2000
2000
1995
11.2
1.3
1.0
2003
1997
12.1
0.8
CSI
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Russian
Federation
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Albania
Turkey
2003
20.7
Armenia
2003
28.9
2004
28.3
Belarus
2003
10.7
Moldova
2001
31.6
Kyrgyzstan
2003
17.0
Not stated
2003
25.0
17.2
2003
2003
12.79
14.56
2003
2003
2005
Not stated
2003
2004
21. 6
24.3
18.1 Tajikistan
Ukraine
30.0
Others
30.8 Brazil
1.66 Serbia
Measurement methods
The compilation methods for covering nonobserved activities rely on indicators.
Situations:
- Coverage is often partial
- Deficiencies in coverage and content
- Overlap in coverage
- Classifications used in various sources may
differ
- Concepts and accounting rules may differ
- Indicators are often by-products.
- Information is partial
- Information is irregular or infrequent
Measurement methods (cont)
1. Statistical methods
2. Methods based on modeling
techniques
The choice of an appropriate method
depends on the availability and quality
of the data that can be used and the
phenomenon in the country
1. Statistical methods
1.1 Direct methods based on direct surveys
(survey on expenditures, income, labor, etc)
1.2 Indirect methods
1.2.1 Supply based methods
1.2.2 Labour input methods
1.2.3 Demand based methods
1.2.4 Income based methods
1.2.5 Commodity-flow method
1.1 Direct survey- opinion
survey
• Advantages:
- The respondents are asking about
their views rather than about their own
behavior;
- Senior managers and enterprises can be
addressed directly
• Disadvantage: no quantitative
information that is readily useable
1.1 Direct survey- opinion survey (cont)
Example: survey by Russian Federation
Centre for Economic Analysis (2000)
Type of question:
• Please estimate (in ranges <5%, 6-15%,
16- 30%, 31-50%, 51-70%, >70%) the
approximate shares of unregistered
receipts by: large and medium
retailers; small retailers; individual
entrepreneurs;
1.1Direct methods-example of
survey
16. Do you know persons who carry out underground activities? How many?
(Number of persons known by respondent households – total)
Outside the
Inside the
household
household
1
Selling own agricultural production
1613
260
2
Selling other products
712
51
3
Private taxi
518
8
4
Car repair
548
7
5
Construction and repair of buildings
860
93
6
Tutoring
528
1
7
Secretary, translations
40
4
8
Catering
18
2
9
Cleaning
404
4
10 Tailoring, knitting
1130
16
11 Hair dressing
723
8
12 Cosmetic services
332
1
13 Tourism
17
14 House painting
1537
441
15 Baby sitting and nursing
124
7
16 Repair of home appliances
657
10
17 Other
820
69
17. Persons carrying out underground activities tend to refuse their legalisation. Which is
the main reason for this?
Taxes too high
relative to
income
Number of
respondent
households
1231
To much
bureaucracy
256
Do not think
that
legalisation is
necessary
373
Other
167
1.2 Indirect methods
1.2.1
1.2.2
1.2.3
1.2.4
1.2.5
Supply based methods
Labour input methods
Demand based methods
Income based methods
Commodity-flow method
1.2.1 Supply based methods
Is based on inputs that are used in
producing goods and services.
Input/output and input/value added
ratios are used ( calculated previously
based on specific survey or IOT frame).
Examples; agriculture and construction
output
1.2.1 Example
Indicators
Nr. Crt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Calculati
on
10/65%
Construction output
Import row materials
VAT import
Tax Duties
Export
Net import raw matials2+3+4-5
Trade margins
6*20/100
Net import
6+7
Local construction materials
Total raw materials
8+9
Other consumption 10*10%
Total IC
10+11
GVA
1-12
Ratio IC/O
12/1
2009
435
173
24
8
15
190
38
228
55
283
28
311
124
71
2010
483
190
29
9
20
208
42
250
62
314
31
345
138
71
1.2.2 Labor input method
There are three basic steps:
• obtain estimates of the supply of labour input
to GDP, for selected economic activity and size
of enterprise, from a household labour force
survey and/or other demographic sources;
• obtain estimates of output per unit of labour
input and value added per unit of labour input
for the same activity and size breakdown from
regular or special purpose enterprise survey;
• multiply the labour input estimates by the per
unit ratios to get output and value added for
the activity and size categories
1.2.2 Labor input method (cont)
Steps:
- Collection of enterprise data- surveys
and administrative data ( use)
- Collection of household data – LFS,
population census ( supply)
- Comparison supply-use of labor inputs
- Identification of labor missing from use
side
- Compilation of O and GVA
1.2.2 Example (cont)
Indicators
SBS
LFS
Number of employees-total
1000
-industry
600
-construction
100
-sevices without government
150
-other sectors
150
Data from SBS
Turnover
-turnover of enterprises
with 1-9 employees
Number of employees in
entreprises with 1-9
employees
IC total economy
% IC in O
-IC of enterprises with 1-9
employees
-%IC/O
VA
-VA of enterprises with 19 employees
Turnover/capita of
enterprises with 1-9
employees
Difference
1200
650
175
215
160
200
50
75
65
10
Services,
Total
without
Other
economy Industry
Construction government services
1,200,000
500,000
200,000
350,000
150,000
600,000
250,000
75,000
200,000
75,000
450
701,000
58
250
350,000
70
50
130,000
65
70
150,500
43
80
70,500
47
327,750
55
499,000
167,500
67
150,000
47,250
63
70,000
80,000
40
199,500
33,000
44
79,500
272,250
82,500
27,750
120,000
42,000
1,333
1,000
1,500
2,857
938
1.2.2 Example (cont)
NOE estimation
Total economy
-industry
-construction
-sevices without
government
-other sectors
Total VA
%of NOE in VA
Turnover
IC
VA
357,589
182,786
174,804
50,000
33,500
16,500
112,500
70,875
41,625
185,714
9,375
673,804
26
74,286
4,125
111,429
5,250
1.2.3 Demand based methods
Production is estimated by using indicator data on specific
uses of goods and services.
They could be
-household final consumption expenditures of a certain
commodity (e.g. health and personal services),
- uses of major products as raw materials (e.g. processing of
agricultural products),
- exports (e.g. major export commodities),
- administrative data indicating demand for a product (e.g.
motor vehicle registrations and building permits).
After a measure of output has been obtained,VA estimates
can be derived using O/VA ratios, as for supply-based
methods.
1.2.4 Income based methods
Some categories of income are available
from administrative sources and can be
used to obtain an indication of
production covered by the
administrative system.
They could be:
- Income tax paid by self employers
- Social security taxes
- Turnover from VAT records
1.2.4 Example
Calculation of O, IC and GVA for units in private
education activity.
• For these units there are available data from:
- financial statements ( complete balance sheets)
- Mini balance sheets( for small units)
- VAT declarations
- Data from social security ( wages and number
of employees)
Privat Education
Nace
(1)
8010
8021
8022
8030
8041
8042
Total
Total
units in
BR
(2)
Units with
balance
sheets
(3)
200
90
16
21
408
206
941
10
18
5
8
11
9
61
Units with
Units with Social
VAT
Insurance
declaratio declaratio
Units with n and
ns and
Mini
without
without
balance balance balance Total Units
sheets
sheets
shhets
with data
(7)=(3)+(4)
(4)
(5)
(6)
+(5)+(6)
30
13
77
130
11
18
17
64
2
2
1
10
1
2
0
11
55
19
136
221
27
3
83
122
126
57
314
558
Total
units
without
data
(8)=(2)-(7)
70
26
6
10
187
84
383
1.2.4 Example- Estimation of
indicators
for
units
data (cont)
Estimation of the indicators
for the units
with balancewith
sheets
Nace4
Output
IC
VA
% IC/O
8010 219,024 146,204 72,820
0.67
8021 246,848 118,069 128,779
0.48
8022
27,307 11,803 15,504
0.43
8030 808,896 346,825 462,071
0.43
8041
23,591
9,160 14,431
0.39
8042
118576
62577
55999
0.53
Total
1,302,075 622,901 679,174
0.48
Estimation of the indicators for the units with mini balance sheets
Nace4
Output
IC
VADD
% IC/O
8010
116918
34005
82913
0.29
8021
50343
12828
37515
0.25
8022
4571
1554
3017
0.34
8030
1107
964
143
0.87
8041
178995
81214
97781
0.45
8042
94039
37443
56596
0.40
Total
445,973 168,008 277,965
0.38
1.2.4 Example- Estimation of indicators for with
VAT and social contribution (cont)
Nace4
8010
8021
8022
8030
8041
8042
Total
Units with VAT
Output
IC
VA
%IC/0
391,891 118,907
292,985
0.30
158,368
69,979
66,389
0.44
475,166 194,329
180,837
0.41
107,178
47,954
61,224
0.45
20,850
8,624
14,225
0.41
6,417
3,153
565
0.49
1,159,870 442,946
616,224
0.38
Nace4
8010
8021
8022
8030
8041
8042
Total
Units with Social contributions
Output
IC
VA
108,191
37,017
58,174
44,926
20,583
18,343
1,442
652
726
279,106 108,100
107,006
85,092
39,068
29,024
518,757 205,421
213,273
0.34
0.46
0.45
0.39
0.46
0.40
1.2.4 Example- Estimation of indicators for
with VAT and social contribution (cont)
• For the units with VAT declarations, the IC
was calculated based on the declared
turnover and the ratio IC/O of similar units
with balance sheets and mini-balance sheets
( as main activity, size, region).
• For the units with social security
declarations, the VA was estimated based on
the ratio of wages in VA from the similar
units; the other indicators were estimated
based on the same assumptions as for VAT.
1.2.4 Example- Estimation of indicators
for missing units (cont)
Nace4
8010
8021
8022
8030
8041
8042
Total
Missing Units
Output
IC
VA
290,165
83,685 206,480
140,949
62,152
70,797
374,977 161,177 143,800
250,140 107,384 142,756
403,599 172,627 181,972
242,658 101,224 109,434
1,702,489 688,250 855,239
0.29
0.44
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.42
0.40
1.2.4 Example-Estimation of indicators
for missing units (cont)
• The indicators were estimated based
on the data from similar units ( as
activity, size and region) with balance
sheets and mini balance sheets.
1.2.5 Commodity flow methods
Involves balancing total supplies and uses of
individual products.
It is used to estimate the output or an
expenditure element by balancing the supply
and use of that commodity, based on the
following equation:
output = the sum of all intermediate
consumption, final consumption, changes
(positive or negative) in inventories, GFCF and
exports minus imports
1.2.5 Commodity flow methods (cont)
Example of the use :
- Estimation of the trade output
- Estimation of the GFCF in construction
- Estimation of the hotel and restaurant
output
2. Macro-model methods
• produce and estimate of NOE based on one single
model
– monetary methods – based on stocks or flows of
money;
– global indicator methods, e.g. electricity
consumption
– latent variable methods – two groups of variables:
one determining the size and the other the evidence
of missing activities
• not recommended to use for measuring NOE declaration by ISWGNA (signed by UN, Eurostat, OECD,
IMF, World Bank)
2. Macro-model methods (cont)
They tend to produce spectacularly high
measures, which attract much attention
from politicians and newspapers.
It is often, but entirely wrongly, conjectured
that the difference between these macromodel results and the official estimates of
GDP is non-measured production
2. Macro-model methods (cont)
Main types of macro-models methods:
2.1. Monetary methods, which assume that the
non-measured production can be modelled in
terms of stocks or flows of money.
2.2.Global indicator methods, in which nonmeasured production is modelled in terms of a
single variable (usually a physical indicator)
with which it is believed to be highly
correlated, electricity consumption being the
most commonly used.
2. Macro-model methods (cont)
• 2.3.Latent variable methods, in which
modeling is in terms of two groups of
variables, one group that is assumed to
determine the size and growth of nonmeasured production and a second group
that provides the “trace” (i.e., evidence) of
the missing activities
Concluding remarks for
macro-model methods
Unsuitable for compiling NA because
– activities not precisely defined
– underlying assumptions too simplistic
– results not stable – change in assumptions
produces different results
– many models that give different results
– provide only global estimate for GDP, not
by industry
– results can not be combined with other
measurements based on data
Concluding remarks for
macro-model methods (cont)
– provide only global estimate for GDP, not
by industry
– results can not be combined with other
measurements based on data
– lack of transparency in describing the
procedures used to compile the national
accounts is the main reason why outsiders
resort to macro-models and produce
estimates that undermine the credibility
of the national accounts
Other issues
1.
Illegal
activities
General types of illegal production:
• production and distribution of illegal goods, such as banned
drugs or pornographic material;
• illegal services, such as prostitution (in countries where thi
is illegal);
• production activities which are usually legal but which
become illegal when carried out by unauthorised producers
such as unlicensed medical practices, unlicensed gambling
activities, unlicensed production of alcohol;illegal fishing,
hunting, tree cutting;
• production and sale of counterfeited products, such as
watches and other products
• smuggling, in particular of tobacco, weapons, alcohol, food
people, both wholesale and retail;
• fencing (resale) of stolen goods;
• bribery;
1.Illegal activities- Measurement methods
• By their nature, illegal activities are very
difficult to measure
• Illegal activities are not included in the
conventional data sources used in compiling the
national accounts;
• The most useful approach:
- basic national accounting identity: supply and
uses of goods and services (domestic output
plus imports)
- Direct estimations based on direct specific data
sources
1. Illegal activitiesMeasurement methods (cont)
For any given illegal activity, data should be
collected, as far as possible independently, on
each of the three angles: supply, use and
generated income
Main sources :
- Provided by police
- Provided by health institutions,
- Provided by NGOs
- Special surveys
1. Illegal activities- Examples:
Drugs
•
-
Sources:
Police
Health institutions
NGOs with activity in this field
Special studies by universities
1. Illegal activities- Examples:
Drugs
(cont)
• The output is estimated based on the number of
consumers and the price street( by categories of
drugs)
• Assumptions have to be made on the value of IC.
Assuming that drugs dealers take care of their
own transport, IC is rather low in the case of
trade in drugs. A higher share of IC has to be
assumed in the case of drugs production itself.
Often, technical coefficients are available for
this purpose.
1. Illegal activities- Examples:
Prostitution
The total supply of prostitution services
comprises services produced domestically by
residents and by non-residents and imported
services, i.e., prostitution services
purchased by residents travelling abroad.
Main data sources:
-data from from health care organisations,
- data from police police
- Data fror prostitutes’ associations;
- Different university studiees
1. Illegal activities Examples:
Prostitution (cont)
• Output= number of persons x average
number of clients x average price
• A breakdown into different kinds of
prostitutes (call girls, prostitutes in
nightclubs, “window” prostitutes,
prostitutes in massage parlours, escort
services, heroin prostitutes, etc.) is
suitable to be done.
II Other elements
• Value of private lessons: number of
students, number of lessons in a
month, value of the lesson
• Rent of houses in holiday period:
number of tourists, kind of
accommodation, price per night
• Taxi activities: special survey
• Tips : a fixed % of the restaurant
turnover
Questionnaire for estimation of GVA for corporate units (taxi driver)
Business name
Municipality
Number
Business number________________________
Description
Measurement unit
1
Average number of cars used
per month
number
2
Average travel expenses per
month
Euro
3
Km spent per month
Km.
4
Average number of employees
per month as taxi drivers
number
5
Average salary of employees (
taxi drivers) per month
Euro
Value
Date: ________________
Contact person:
Name and surname
Telephone____________________
Interviewer:
Name and surname
Telephone___________________
:
Questionnaire for estimation of GVA for unincorporated units (taxi companies)
Business name
Municipality _________________
Number
Business number__________________________
1
2
Description
Travel expenses during a
week
Characteristics of the car
(does he use diesel or gas)
3
Expenses (litter per 100 km)
4
Km spent per week
5
6
Average number of
customers per week
Average income receive by
customer
Measurement
unit
Value
euro
name
litter
km
number
euro
Date: __________________
Contact person:
Name and surname__________________________________________________ Telephone: ___________________
Interviewer:
Name and surname__________________________________________________ Telephone: ___________________
Strategy
implementation
General problem of NOE
measurement
• Lack of consultation with major
external users
• Inadequate statement of objectives
• Inadequate statement of
responsibilities
• Narrow focus
• Lack of integration of data
Strategy for NOE measurement
Five lines of action:
1.Identify an appropriate conceptual and
analytical framework on the basis of which
the NOE can be assessed.
2. Assess the basic data and the compilation
methods, identifying the extent of nonobserved and non-measured activities and
establishing priorities for dealing with them,
both in the immediate future and the longer
term
Strategy for NOE measurement (cont)
3. Identify potential improvements in the
national accounts compilation process
that will reduce the incidence of nonmeasured activities.
4. Identify potential improvements in the
infrastructure and content of the basic
data collection programme.
5. Develop an implementation plan
Elements of a NOE strategy
 Comprehensive programme of users
consultation on their needs and priorities;
 Set of clear, realistic, broad objectives
indicating what to achieve in terms of NOE;
 A well defined conceptual and analytical
framework appropriate for NOE measurement;
 Assessment of the sources and outputs of the
and the national accounts compilation
procedures;
Elements of a NOE strategy (cont)
 A prioritized set of possible short and long
term initiatives for improving the statistical
infrastructure and outputs of the existing
basic data collection programme;
 Implementation plan providing clear targets,
milestones and an allocation of resources;
 Data revision strategy for preventing breaks
in macro-economic data outputs resulting
from NOE related improvements;
Implementation steps
Steps:
• Formulation of aims and consultation with
internal and external users
• Selection of an analytical framework
• Assessment of the NA and basic data collection
programme
• Identification and prioritisation of NOE
improvement initiatives