Transcript Developing a social protection agenda for equitable growth

THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA -
MINISTRY OF FINANCE
I
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
Social Protection: Building Effective and Sustainable Systems for Equitable Growth
Perspectives, Policies and Best Practices
December 15-17, 2014
International Conference Centre – Simba Hall, Arusha, Tanzania
15 December 2014
Michael Samson
Economic Policy Research Institute
[email protected]
SESSION 1:
Developing a social protection agenda
for equitable growth in Tanzania
Social protection has grown rapidly in Africa
2000
2012
9 countries,
25 programs
41 countries,
245 programs
2010
35
countries,
120
programs
2000
2012
SOURCE: Garcia and Moore
(2012)
Social protection reduces poverty
in high-income countries
SOURCE: OECD AND ILO
Social protection reduces poverty
in high-income countries
SOURCE: OECD AND ILO
Social protection reduces poverty
in high-income countries
SOURCE: OECD AND ILO
Inequality is increasing in Tanzania
(as it is in most countries of the world)
Share of Income (%)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
poorest
2
3
middle
Quintile
1992
2012
4
5
richest
Multi-dimensional impacts of SP
Poverty
reduction
Poverty reduction
• Main aim of
social protection
Social
protection
• Protects people from
shocks and directly
supports well-being
• Scaling up the PSSN in
Tanzania is estimated to
reduce extreme poverty
by 52%
Multi-dimensional impacts of SP
Poverty
reduction
Human capital
• Most documented
Human
capital
Social
protection
secondary aim
• Improves nutrition,
education, and
health outcomes
• For both conditional
and unconditional
programmes
A major priority in countries like Tanzania and Uganda
Biological transmission mechanisms
of social protection
Binocular vision
‘Sensitive periods’ in early
Central auditory system
brain development Habitual ways of responding
Language
Emotional control
Symbol
Peer social skills
Relative quantity
High
Low
0
1
2
3
Years
4
5
6
7
Social protection represents an investment in human capital
achieving the highest returns of any public investment
Pre-school
Intervention
Brain
Growth
Schooling
Job Training
Human Capital Rates
of Return
Pre-school
School
Post-School
Age
Heckman & Carneiro (2003) and Handa (2007)
Evidence from child benefit programs around
the world document reductions in stunting
Improvement in height-for-age z
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
South
Africa
(girls)
South
Africa
(boys)
Mexico
Nicaragua Colombia
Honduras
attributable increase in school attendance rate
Likewise, evidence from these programs around the world
demonstrate increases in secondary school attendance
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Kenya
Mexico boys Mexico girls
Turkey
Multi-dimensional impacts of social protection
Poverty
reduction
Livelihoods
Human
capital
Social
protection
Livelihoods
•A surprising impact
•People use social
protection benefits to
support enterprises
and labour market
participation
• Small but significant
improvements in
many countries
Human capital development promotes pro-poor growth
Increase wages
60-130% more
than the cost
of transfers
South
Africa
Social
protection
Labour
productivity
Human
capital
Pro-poor
growth
Multi-dimensional impacts of social protection
Poverty
reduction
Risk management
Human
capital
Social
protection
Risk
management
Livelihoods
• A subtle but powerful
impact
• Protects people from
shocks and directly
supports well-being
• Prevents further
decline into poverty
• Protects assets
• Promotes productive
risk-taking
Social Protection promotes better risk
management and encourages investment
Social
protection
Risk
Management
Higher
investment
and growth
Social protection enables households to achieve
more sustaining livelihoods
“If I didn’t get that 25,000 [Uganda
schillings, about US$9/month], I
would never have dreamt of owning
these livestock. I would never have
joined these groups. How would that
have happened?”
Joyce Mary Adeke, a71 year old widow
living in Moru village in Uganda’s Katakwi district
SOURCE: Government of Uganda,
http://www.socialprotection.go.ug/
Social protection improves labour
market participation and employment
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Out of LF
Unemp., no
search
Unemp.,
searching
Employed
Labor force status, March 2005
CSG households
n=3462
Non-CSG households
n=1795
Multi-dimensional impacts of social protection
Economic
resilience
Poverty
reduction
Economic
resilience
Social
protection
Risk
management
Human
capital
Livelihoods
• Enables the
economy to better
withstand external
shocks
• Provides an
automatic stabiliser
for the economy
• Social protection
provides efficient
economic stimulus
Multi-dimensional impacts of social protection
Poverty
reduction
Social
cohesion
Social cohesion
• Social protection
Human
capital
Social
protection
Economic
resilience
• Strengthens the bond
between State and
people
Livelihoods
Risk
management
represents one of the
most concrete and
valued forms of
government delivery
• Resulting social
cohesion promotes
private investment
Multi-dimensional impacts of social protection
Poverty
reduction
Economic
Reform
Economic reform
Human
capital
Social
protection
Economic
resilience
Livelihoods
Risk
management
• Social protection
shares the benefits
of economic growth
• Makes any economic
reform programme
more pro-poor
• Increases the
likelihood of success
of the reforms
Social protection reinforces social cohesion, facilitating
economic reforms that promote pro-poor growth
Mauritius
 A half-century ago had a
Mauritius
poverty profile similar to
any African country
 Today, the lowest poverty
rates on the Continent, and
some of the highest growth
rates over the past several
decades
 Social protection enabled a
restructuring of the
economy onto an exportled high growth path
Social protection invests in the economic sector most disadvantaged
by a resource boom and helps to immunise against “Dutch disease”
Natural resources: boom or curse?
 Mineral and energy wealth has




its advantages…
But can intensify macroeconomic
instability and open a country to
global shocks
It can intensify inequality
It can undermine competitiveness
Social protection can help
counter all these adverse
effects—by improving pro-poor
policy, enabling households to
deal with shocks, and investing in
the sector whose competitiveness
is most negatively affected
Multi-dimensional impacts of social protection
Poverty
reduction
Human
capital
Economic
reform
Social
protection
Livelihoods
Social
cohesion
Economic
resilience
Risk
management
The case for
social
protection
involves a
wide-ranging
spectrum
of social and
economic
impacts.
Social Protection
Human
Capital
b
c
Risk
Management
Direct
Production
Interventions
Local Economy
Multiplier
Effects
b
c
Risk
Management
Direct
Production
Interventions
Local Economy
Multiplier
Effects
Short term
labor supply
decisions
Effective
Labour
Supply
Employmentcentred
Structural
Transformation
Decent Rural Employment
Social Protection
Human
Capital
Higher
labour
productivity
b
c
Risk
Management
Direct
Production
Interventions
Local Economy
Multiplier
Effects
Short term
labor supply
decisions
Effective
Labour
Supply
Employmentcentred
Structural
Transformation
Diversified
rural
economy
Demand for
goods and
Services
Labour
Demand
Decent Rural Employment
Social Protection
Human
Capital
Higher
labour
productivity
Uganda’s development planning framework
can maximize economic growth impacts
Intrasectoral
linkages
Intersectoral
linkages
Multi-dimensional impacts of social protection
Poverty
reduction
Human
capital
Economic
reform
Social
cohesion
Economic
resilience
Social
protection
Livelihoods
Impacts reinforce
each other
• Poverty reduction
further develops
human capital
• … further
improving
livelihoods
• … bolstering risk
management
Risk
management
• … reinforcing
resilience
•…