Transcript Demand under Promo

Demand
Estimation & Forecasting
YieldWise.Com
Three components:
• Demand Estimation and Forecasting
• Promotion Demand Forecasting
• Events Identification
…are implemented using:
• unique proprietary technology of
applications development
• sophisticated statistical methods
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Promo Efficiency
Assumption:
Product demand declines during
promotion
Inference:
Sales (not the demand!) decline as a
result of inaccurate demand forecasting
which lead to out-of-stock
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Promo Price
Assumption:
Demand growth proportional to price
discount
Inference:
Small discount leads to “jump” in demand,
further discount contributes almost nothing
YieldWise.Com
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4
Contra Promotion
Assumption:
If competitor starts promotion, we have to
start contra promotion
Inference:
In saturated market there is no need to
start contra promotion if there was not
detected influence from competitor’s
promotion
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Promo Demand Prediction
Assumption:
It is possible to predict demand under
promotion using such parameters as type
of media, length of the promotion, discount
percent, retail dollar value or profit
contribution
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Promo Demand Prediction
Inference:
In general, non of these parameters (and
never all together!) can be useful to
forecast demand under promotion
Different predictive approaches must be
used for different groups of products
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Demand Forecasting…
…is a basis for everything
Supply Planning & management
Demand
Forecasting
Promo management
Identification of unexpected events
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Demand Forecasting…
…is based on estimation of
real demand
Sales data
Promo data
Out-of-stock data
Demand
Estimation
Demand
Forecasting
Extreme events
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YieldWise.Com
is a leading provider of innovative
analytical solutions specializing in:
– research and development of sophisticated analytical methods
and software tools for data warehousing and data mining.
– statistical data analysis, time series analysis and forecasting,
– Statistical and IT consulting and training
Our leading edge expertise, software tools
and problem solving skills may be applied
to virtually any industry.
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Contact addresses
USA
637 Wyckoff Avenue Suite 260, Wyckoff, NJ, 07481, USA
Phone: 862 215 4611
US Toll-free 1 866 730 4471
Canada
6A-49 The Donway West Suite 918, Toronto, Ontario, M3C 2E8,
Canada
Phone: 416 841 0791
Israel
P.O. Box 5 Caesarea 38900
Phone: 050 5406396
Fax: 04 6100101
E-Mail
[email protected]
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