free/low-cost advertising - Whitfield County Democrats

download report

Transcript free/low-cost advertising - Whitfield County Democrats

WHAT THIS WILL COVER
Short and long-term goals
Phone efforts
Voter registration
Advertising
Fundraising
Targets
Candidates/elected offices
THE NEXT EIGHT YEARS
GOALS (2013-2014)
Between now and November 2014, the WCDP seeks to raise an
unprecedented $50,000 in funds that will provide the organization with a
monetary base from which a viable atmosphere for candidates can be
created.
By October 1, 2014, the WCDP seeks to register a total of 3,500
individuals who are either directly or demographically aligned with the
Democratic Party.
By October 1, 2014, the WCDP seeks to make live phone contact with
4,000 targeted Democrats (“our solid base”) at least three times, ensuring
that voters are aware of the WCDP's existence and ways in which they can
be a part of the local Democratic movement.
In anticipation of local and state elections in 2014 the WCDP seeks to
locate, encourage and assist potential candidates and see to it that they
qualify for local elections. The WCDP has set a goal of having Democratic
candidates on the ballot for no less than 75% of all open offices in this
election cycle.
THE NEXT EIGHT YEARS
GOALS (2013-2014)
The WCDP seeks to increase the Whitfield County Democratic percentage
of the vote in the 2014 Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections (and all
applicable local and state elections) by twelve points. For the
Gubernatorial election, this would mean increasing the Democratic result in
Whitfield County from 22.93% in 2010 to at least 34.93% in 2014.
The WCDP seeks to elect a Democrat to HD-004 by running a credible
Democratic challenger in the most Democratic-advantageous state house
district in Whitfield County. With the aforementioned goals targeted within
this State House district, ousting Representative Broadrick is realistic; the
average margin between Democratic and Republican votes in 2010 in
what is now District 4 was 3,100.
THE NEXT EIGHT YEARS
GOALS (2015-2020)
Between October 2014 and October 2016, the WCDP seeks to register an
additional 3,500 individuals who are either directly or demographically
aligned with the Democratic Party.
After the 2016 elections, the WCDP seeks to have at least 1/3 of all locallyelected offices held by Democrats or Democratic non-partisans.
Through the aforementioned goals, the WCDP seeks to chip away at
Republican dominance in seats and offices that we cannot win. By 2016,
we intend to see a Whitfield County that does not cast more than 60% of
the vote for a Republican in any local or state election.
Between 2016-2020, the WCDP seeks to register an additional 4,000
individuals who are either directly or demographically aligned with the
Democratic Party.
THE NEXT EIGHT YEARS
GOALS (2015-2020)
By 2018, the WCDP seeks to put House District 6 into contention.
By 2020, the WCDP seeks to bolster its support for national Democratic
candidates (President, US Senate, US HoR) above the 40% threshold and
to establish a “swing-county” result for local and state elections across the
board.
By 2020, with the WCDP keeping its mainline goals over the past eight
years, we will have fostered Whitfield County into a trending-blue county.
All offices within the city of Dalton and many countywide offices will be held
by Democrats or Democratic non-partisans, while the county at-large will
cast its ballot for statewide Democrats by a three-to-five point margin.
BUILDING OUR BASE
PHONE EFFORTS
One-on-one interactions with likely, inactive and potential voters is the most
effective way to improve Democratic performance.
For those who are not politically-engaged, we will want to strive to have five
phone-based interactions with each potential voter over the course of a
two-year cycle, with at least three of those being live calls.
Based on the goals outlined in the full document, we seek to have a total of
12,000 phone-based interactions with Democrats by October 2014 (4,000 x
3) . In the final month of the election, we will seek to have an additional
8,000 phone-based interactions (4000 x 2).
This is a crucial part of having successful turnout, particularly in mid-term
elections. Large swings in Democratic turnout are caused by a lack of
communication with our likely voters.
BUILDING OUR BASE
PHONE EFFORTS
Nobody likes making phone calls.
The vast majority of our phone-based interactions will be with “friendly”
voters; no one has to worry about cold-calling Republicans.
Particularly in the beginning, we will be outlining our broader plan for
moving forward and ensure they are aware of the local Democratic
movement.
Having 20,000 phone-based interactions is not as difficult as it would seem:
In 2013, we want to make contact with every likely Democrat at least once,
for an approximate total of 4,500 interactions.
With 8 months remaining in 2013, this breaks down to 560 calls per month.
A dedicated team of 10 phone bankers could each make roughly 60 calls
per month to reach this target.
BUILDING OUR BASE
PHONE EFFORTS
Beginning in 2014, the pace of phone efforts will be quickened, with a total
of 7,500 interactions needed before October 1, 2014 and an additional
8,000 interactions in the final month before the election.
In order to reach these targets, 15 individuals each having 60 interactions
per month will achieve the first quota by the end of August 2014.
In the final month of the election cycle, 30 individuals each having 270
interactions per month will allow us to meet the second quota.
To put this into real terms for someone making calls: a dedicated phone
banker would give roughly 8 hours of their time in 2013, 16 hours in the first
nine months of 2014 and another 16 hours in October 2014.
This works out to be roughly 40 hours per person, or one work week's
equivalent. In smaller scale: a little over two hours per month.
BUILDING OUR BASE
PHONE EFFORTS
We will have regular phone banking sessions at HQ every two weeks,
beginning Saturday, April 27.
Refreshments and lunch will be provided to those who can come out and
volunteer for this vital effort.
In the beginning, we will be contacting individuals who statistically share our
values, so each person will have ample opportunity to learn and gain
experience before speaking with less-persuadable people.
Idealistically, phone banking is a simple and modern task that can be done
from home, but there are issues with this approach.
Any GOTV effort that fails to utilize phone banking is doomed to fail.
BUILDING OUR BASE
PHONE EFFORTS
COST ESTIMATE FOR PHONE BANKING, 2013-2014
Food & Refreshments
$2,100
Internet Service @ HQ
$670
Misc. Phone Banking Resources
$300
Robocalls & Surveys
$1,000
TOTAL COST ($$$)
$4,070
TOTAL COST
(HRS)
700
BUILDING OUR BASE
ADVERTISING
Advertising efforts are essential in Whitfield County, due to the low exposure
that most local election cycles receive.
The WCDP cannot rely on passive forms of exposure through newspaper,
TV, radio or even sophisticated social networking to adequately generate
the level of awareness and discussion that we need in order to be a
formidable presence in local politics.
Much like any suppressed local movement, we must be forceful and active
in how we drive attention to our cause, while simultaneously appealing to
our party's supporters. There are countless forms of advertising that range
in cost from free to expensive and in order to be successful, the WCDP will
employ advertising methods across the board.
A successful campaign will spend approximately 75% of its funds on
communication, media and outreach.
BUILDING OUR BASE
ADVERTISING
FREE/LOW-COST ADVERTISING (WIDE-AIMED APPROACHES)
Wide-aimed, low-cost advertising is one of the easier ways (financially and
logistically) to spread a message to potential volunteers, contributors, voters
and candidates alike.
Under ideal circumstances, this form of advertising will receive anywhere
from tens to thousands of impressions on a daily basis, depending on the
method of advertising.
The downside to this approach is that the vast majority of those impressions
are not “valid”; in other words, most people are uninterested or opposed to
said message.
Nevertheless, due to the fact that this form of advertising is free/low-cost
and easy in which to engage, those few impressions that are positive will
result in added strength to the local movement and are worth the effort.
Some common examples of this approach include:
BUILDING OUR BASE
ADVERTISING
FREE/LOW-COST ADVERTISING (WIDE-AIMED APPROACHES)
Yard campaigns – Creating “mini-campaigns” in members' yards acts very much like
a traditional billboard minus the large expenses. Whether it be official
campaign/candidate signs or DIY projects, individuals can cheaply assemble signs
and displays that provoke and intrigue passersby. There are a wide variety of
messages and statements that can be deployed in this fashion.
Bumperstickers – Placing bumperstickers on vehicle back windows increase our
visibility and presence. It is constant advertisement while an individual is driving
(think moving billboards). Bumperstickers can also be employed in a similar manner
to flyers. Bumperstickers featuring WCDP are highly encouraged as they specifically
spread the message of the existence of the local party.
Flyers – Placing flyers on streetlamps, electrical posts and accessible walls along
frequented walking paths around the county.
BUILDING OUR BASE
ADVERTISING
FREE/LOW-COST ADVERTISING (TARGETED APPROACHES)
Targeted low-cost advertising is another form of advertising that employs
many of the same aspects mentioned above. The difference is to aim for
quality exposure over quantity exposure.
Targeted low-cost advertising is not necessarily noticed by as many
individuals as the wide-aimed approach, but the idea is to focus it in a way
that a higher percentage of individuals who do see it are receptive to the
concept.
By considering the traits, characteristics and interests of individuals who are
more receptive to our message, the venues in which this form of advertising
can be deployed becomes clearer. A few examples include:
BUILDING OUR BASE
ADVERTISING
Targeted business card blanketing – Divide a number of pre-made WCDP
business cards among members. Each member is responsible for placing
a business card on any vehicle that he/she sees that has Democratic or
progressive-leaning paraphernalia (bumperstickers) on it.
Facebook advertising – Many social networking sites now offer advertising
options that allow the creation of an advertising campaign and to customtailor who sees the ads. One can specify age, gender, location and even
specific interests that must be shared by the individuals who will see the
advertisement. These options are extremely affordable; a targeted,
countywide advertising campaign running for one week can be deployed
for between $5-20.
The WCDP now has access to robo-calls via VoteBuilder, and can deploy
robo-calls for $0.01 per phone number. This approach can allow us to
contact every single existing Democratic voter in the county for
approximately $40.
BUILDING OUR BASE
ADVERTISING
HIGH-END ADVERTISING
Thanks to the expansion of technology, the WCDP is able to express its
message through many mediums at little to no cost.
However, there are still reliable mediums that reach large numbers of
individuals simultaneously.
The obvious downside to this approach is cost: there is virtually no largescale media ad that can reach individuals directly for less than a few
hundred dollars.
Despite the cost factor, high-end advertising still has its place and is
necessary in any serious WCDP election-year GOTV effort.
BUILDING OUR BASE
ADVERTISING
HIGH-END ADVERTISING
Radio ad campaigns are the cheapest broad-based approach we can have
when it comes to traditional advertising.
Direct mail campaigns will allow us to reach select voters in a minimallyintrusive way.
Newspaper advertisements placed at appropriate times can be a good
decision, but generally are not cost effective.
Television commercials are currently out of reach for us due to the cost.
Local commercials may or may not be worth the effort due to audience.
Billboards are not viable nor beneficial in the vast majority of cases for us.
BUILDING OUR BASE
ADVERTISING
GUERRILLA ADVERTISING
An advertising strategy in which low-cost unconventional means (graffiti,
sticker bombing, flash mobs) are utilized, often in a localized fashion or
large network of individual cells, to convey or promote a product or an idea.
One idea is the usage of large “values statement” signs in yards and on
property where we have the OK.
BUILDING OUR BASE
ADVERTISING
COST ESTIMATE FOR ADVERTISING, 2013-2014
Flyers and printed materials
$1,500
Radio ad campaign
$1,500
Direct mail
$2,500
Newspaper advertisements
$1,500
Social media campaign
$1,000
Bumperstickers
$250
Standard yard signs
$2,000
4' x 4' and 4' x 8' signs
$2,000
TOTAL COST ($$$)
$12,500
TOTAL COST
(HRS)
500
BUILDING OUR BASE
FUNDRAISING
(My least favorite part)
Fundraising is unique in the sense that it is incorporated into every element
of any campaign. Likewise, it is a facilitator in making all other efforts
possible.
Fundraising tactics range in scope widely. Examples include:
Committee solicitations
Online & email solicitations
Direct mail solicitations
One-on-one meetings
Advertised events (JJ dinners)
Phone banking and canvassing efforts
BUILDING OUR BASE
FUNDRAISING
CURRENT OPTIONS FOR CONTRIBUTING TO WCDP:
Cash & check @ meetings
Credit and debit @ meetings
Over the phone
Adam Griffin - 7062808845
One-time and recurring donations online
Http://www.facebook.com/whitfieldcounty
Http://www.whitdem.org
Via mail
Whitfield County Democratic Party
808 Rucky Dr
Dalton, GA 30721
BUILDING OUR BASE
VOTER REGISTRATION
THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES
Republicans win in landslides in Whitfield County, but Republicans do not
win with support from a large bloc of the population.
In most counties, surpassing such a firewall would be impossible. In
Whitfield County, however, it is possible due to current voter apathy among
all races and age groups, and a large, Democratic-leaning voting bloc that
has yet to have their electoral power realized.
In many cases, the entire Republican electorate – usually 70-75% of the
voting populace – only accounts for around 20% of the county's population.
Extracting the needed number of voters to put Whitfield County into a true
swing-county status (approximately 11,000) can be accomplished by 2020.
BUILDING OUR BASE
VOTER REGISTRATION
REPUBLICAN WOES:
Another good sign of trends shifting in our direction is the fact that the
Republican electorate in Whitfield County has not grown since 2004.
Well, it has grown a little: in 2004, George Bush received 19,297 votes,
versus 19,230 for John McCain in 2008 and 19,305 for Mitt Romney in
2012. The Republican electorate has literally grown by 1 vote per year over
the past eight years.
This shows that the local Republican effort has flat-lined in terms of growing
its own movement, and is in serious trouble in the long-run as
demographics unfavorable to their values become a larger percentage of
the electorate.
BUILDING OUR BASE
VOTER REGISTRATION
VR STATISTICS:
Registering the remaining adult eligible population in Whitfield County
without considerations would result in 62% of newly registered voters being
Republican.
By using five simple socioeconomic evaluations of an individual (race, age,
gender, marital status, wealth) before initiating a conversation about voter
registration, we can increase our likely recruitment rate of Democratic
voters to 80% (up from 38% in random sampling).
When registering likely Democrats, it takes roughly 200 new registrations to
equal 100 new Democratic voters – assuming the only interaction is the
registration itself.
The WCDP plans to not only register individuals, but ensure that we
maintain contact with them. Targeted approaches will increase that yield to
where 200 new registrations equal somewhere between 130-150 new
Democratic voters.
BUILDING OUR BASE
VOTER REGISTRATION
COST ESTIMATE FOR VOTER REGISTRATION, 2013-2014
Food & Refreshments
$2,100
Misc. VR Resources
$500
Flyers & Printed Materials
$750
TOTAL COST ($$$)
$3,350
TOTAL COST (HRS)
900
BUILDING OUR BASE
TARGETS
By the end of the decade, large swathes of the county will be viable territory for
a strong Democratic movement. In 2010, the racial makeup of Whitfield
County looked as such:
BUILDING OUR BASE
TARGETS
Unfortunately, voter trends lag that of simple demographics.
Because of this, the sole focus of the 2013-2014 election cycle will center
around State House District 4, which comprises most of Dalton and the
southern half of the county.
BUILDING OUR BASE
TARGETS
Dalton makes up approximately 60% of District 4's population.
Further inspection of the demographics within the city and district at-large
explain why this is such a ripe target for a Democratic resurgence:
004 Population, 2010 Census: 004 Population (18+), 2010 Census:
White
52.3% (28,567)
White
59.4% (23,021)
Latino
40.5% (22,102)
Latino
33.2% (12,888)
Black
4.4% (2,380)
Black
4.8%
(1,879)
Other
2.8% (1,331)
Other
2.6%
(951)
BUILDING OUR BASE
TARGETS
PRIMARY FOCUS:
The one unique characteristic about Whitfield County that makes it different
from neighboring counties is its large Latino population. As of 2013, it is
estimated that approximately 12,000 adult Latino U.S. citizens are residents
of Whitfield County, with another 7,000 Latino U.S. citizens under the age of
18.
Currently in the county, only about 3,500 Latinos are registered to vote, with
less than half voting in 2012. These numbers led to a scenario in which the
Latino percentage of the vote in Whitfield County was only 6%, despite
being 33% of the county's population. Only 1 in 20 Latinos voted in 2012.
BUILDING OUR BASE
TARGETS
Exit polling shows us that Latinos favor Democrats by a 2:1 margin. We
believe that through targeted voter registration campaigns, community
outreach to Latino-oriented groups and an intelligent handling of Latinos'
attitudes toward government, we can improve upon that while only locating
and registering Democratic-leaning Latinos.
Mistrust of government by many in the Latino community is common;
projecting this aspect onto the current one-party state (Republicans) with
Latinos may prove to be a viable tactic in boosting Democratic performance.
BUILDING OUR BASE
TARGETS
FAVORABLE:
Many demographics within Whitfield County are more favorable to
Democrats than others, and it is important that we engage with these
audiences in order to boost performance. Women, for example, are 30%
more likely to vote Democratic than men. Likewise, younger people (18-40)
are nearly twice as likely to vote Democratic than individuals 55 and older.
African-Americans favor the Democratic Party 9:1, making them an
important element of the WCDP and the county Democratic electorate.
These demographics - women, African-Americans and young people – are
in many ways the base of the Democratic Party in the modern era. By
ensuring that we have consistent communication with them and are
ensuring they have a point of contact within the community, we can
increase both the likelihood that they will vote in elections and that they will
vote Democratic.
BUILDING OUR BASE
TARGETS
UNFAVORABLE:
Some demographics are better left alone. While once the dominant element
of the Democratic Party, the white male is now the polar opposite of the
Democratic Party. An average white male in Whitfield County has a near
80% chance of voting Republican. For those over the age of 55, that
percentage increases to 85%. Make no mistake: older white males in
Whitfield County are nearly as solidly Republican as African-Americans are
Democratic. It is for this reason that the WCDP intends to avoid contacting
in any way or registering to vote white males who are ages 40 and above
for the next four years, with the exception of those who show up in voting
records as Democratic.
Whites in general are not much better, coming in overall at around 75%
Republican. The average white female in Whitfield County has a 65%
chance of voting Republican, making them only marginally less Republican
than their male counterparts. White females under the age of 40, however,
are relatively decent targets for voter registration as their numbers come
closer to 50/50.
BUILDING OUR BASE
TARGETS
Those who do not consistently vote have been shown to be more
Democratic than those who consistently vote; defeating voter apathy among
this section of registered voters is vital for a long-term strategy. Based on
demographic comparisons between active registered voters and inactive
registered voters in Whitfield County, it is estimated that inactive registered
voters are approximately 40% Democratic, much higher than the current
typical Election Day electorate.
CANDIDATES
UP FOR GRABS
2013 ELECTIONS:
Dalton City Council Ward 2 (Dick Lowrey) (SR)
Dalton City Council Ward 4 (Gary Crews) (SR)
Dalton Board of Education (Mark Orr) (SR)
Dalton Board of Education (Steve Williams) (I)
Mayor, Varnell (Dan Peeples) (SR)
Varnell City Council Post 1 (James Caldwell) (LR)
Varnell City Council Post 2 (Brent Newsome) (LR)
Tunnel Hill City Council Seat 1 (Hub Griffin)
Tunnel Hill City Council Seat 2 (Ken Gowin) (LR)
Tunnel Hill City Council Seat 3 (Ray Anderson) (SR)
Mayor, Cohutta (Don Henderson) (LR)*
Cohutta City Council Seat 1 (Ben Manis) (LR)
Cohutta City Council Seat 2 (Gabriel Powers) (SD)
CANDIDATES
UP FOR GRABS
2014 ELECTIONS:
US House 9 (Tom Graves) (R)
State Senate 54 (Charlie Bethel) (R)
State House 4 (Bruce Broadrick) (R)
State House 6 (Tom Dickson) (R)
State House 3 (Tom Weldon) (R)
County Commissioner, District 1 (Gordon Morehouse) (R)
County Commissioner, District 3 (Robby Staten) (R)
Board of Education At-Large (Bill Worley) (R)
Board of Education District 2 (Rodney Lock) (R)
Board of Education District 4 (Louis Fordham) (R)
Varnell City Council Seat 3 (Allan Pippin) (SR)
Superior Court Judge, Cindy Morris (I)
Superior Court Judge, William T. Boyett (I)
CANDIDATES
UP FOR GRABS
The WCDP is able to contribute a total of $5,000 to each candidate in an
election cycle ($2,500 in primary, $2,500 in general).
We will attempt to field as many candidates as possible for elections in
2013-2014 (the goal is 19 out of 26), but a candidate must demonstrate
viability before receiving funds. We are not responsible for funding a
candidate's campaign in its entirety nor will we be in the position to do such
a thing; that is the job of the candidate.
The WCDP's role in party politics is to create a hospitable environment for
Democrats via voter registration, GOTV and turnout efforts, advertising and
fundraising.
Some of our candidates will be “placeholders”, or individuals who will run
low-key campaigns and understand that their main goal is to provide voters
with a choice.