Transcript Cars, Hydrogen and Climate Change: A Long

The Energy-System GMM Model for
Integrated Assessment
Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos
Energy Economics Group. Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)
ETSAP Meeting, Florence, November 24-25, 2004
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Outline
•The Energy-System GMM model
•Technology clusters in GMM
•The passenger car sector
•The GMM baseline scenario
•Linking GMM to the MAGICC climate model
•Concluding remarks
2/19
The Energy-System GMM Model
• GMM (Global Multi-regional MARKAL Model) developed at PSI
• “Bottom-up” energy-system model with detailed supply
technologies and stylized end-use sectors
• Global, 5-region model, time horizon 2000-2050
• Calibrated to year-2000 statistics
• Clusters approach to technology learning
• Transport sector emphasizing passenger cars
• Marginal abatement curves for CH4 and N2O
• CO2 capture and storage in electricity and hydrogen production
• Other synfuel production technologies (H2, alcohols, F-T liquids)
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Technology Clusters in GMM
• Clusters are groups of technologies that co-evolve and
cross-enhance each other, among others by sharing
common key components (learning spillovers)
• In GMM, 15 key learning components in electricity
generation, fuel production, CO2 capture and
passenger car technologies are included following
Seebregts et al.(2000) and Turton and Barreto (2004)
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15 Key Learning Components
• Electricity generation technologies: Wind turbines,
Solar PV, advanced nuclear, gas turbine, stationary
fuel cell (5)
• Synthetic fuel production: Gasifier, biomass-toethanol, steam methane reformer (3)
• CO2 Capture: Conventional coal power plants (postcombustion, natural gas CC (post-combustion), coal
and biomass IGCC (pre-combustion), coal and
biomass hydrogen production (pre-combustion) (4)
• Passenger cars: Mobile fuel cell, battery, mobile
reformer (3)
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Example of Technology Cluster
Coal-Based
IGCC Power Plant
Coal-Based
Hydrogen Production
Coal-Based
Fischer-Tropsch
Synthesis
Gasifier
(GSF)
Biomass-Based
IGCC Power Plant
Biomass-Based
Hydrogen Production
Biomass-Based
Fischer-Tropsch
Synthesis
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The Transportation Sector in GMM
•Passenger car sub-sector with technological detail in
automobile technologies (ICEV, HEV, FCV)
•Aggregate air transport sub-sector at the final-energy level
with only oil-based technologies
•Aggregate “other transport” sub-sector with generic
technologies mimicking final-energy consumption
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Passenger Car Demand in GMM
20000
Car Travel (billion vehicle-km)
LAFM
ASIA
16000
12000
EEFSU
OOECD
NAM
8000
4000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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The GMM Baseline Scenario
•GDP, population, end-use demands (except for cars) and
resource assumptions from SRES B2 scenario quantification
with the MESSAGE model (Riahi and Roehrl, 2000; Rogner,
1997,2000) but a more fossil-intensive technology dynamics
•Primary energy consumption reaches 960 EJ and energyrelated CO2 emissions reach 15 Gt C in the year 2050.
• World demand for passenger cars (vehicle-km) doubles by
2050
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World Primary Energy
1000000
Renewables
Nuclear
World Primary Energy (PJ)
800000
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
600000
400000
200000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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World Electricity Generation
300000
World Electricity Generation (PJ)
Geothermal
250000
200000
150000
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
100000
50000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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C-eq emissions (Mt C-eq, CO 2+CH4+N2O)
Global GHG Emissions (CO2 ,CH4, N2O)
25000
20000
N2O
CH4
CO2
15000
10000
5000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Passenger Cars: Technology Mix
25000
Global Passenger Cars Use (Billion v-km)
Hydrogen FCV
Methanol FCV
20000
Oil Products FCV
Hydrogen HEV
CNG HEV
Oil Products HEV
15000
CNG ICEV
Oil Products Advanced ICEV
Oil Products ICEV
10000
5000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Key Components: Cumulative Capacity
10000
Cumulative Capacity (GW)
Gasifier
Stationary Fuel Cell
Mobile Fuel Cell
1000
Gas Turbine
Solar PV
Wind Turbine
New Nuclear
Battery
100
Stationary Reformer
Mobile Reformer
Biomass-to Ethanol
CO2 Capture coal
10
CO2 Capture gas
CO2 Capture IGCC
CO2 capture Hydrogen
1
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Linking GMM to a Climate Model
•The energy-system GMM model has been linked to the
simplified climate MAGICC model version 4.1 (Wigley, 2003)
•Energy-related CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions are computed
by GMM. Non-energy-related emissions for these GHGs are
extrapolated from U.S EPA (2003)
•Emissions for other GHGs are taken from the SRES-B2
scenario (SRES, 2000)
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GHG Atmospheric Concentrations
700
CO2 Atmospheric Concentration (ppmv)
CH4
3500
600
3000
500
2500
400
CO2
2000
300
1500
200
1000
N2O
100
0
1750
500
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
CH4,N2O Atmospheric Concentration (ppbv)
4000
0
2100
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Temperature Change and Sea-level Rise
40
35
2.5
30
2
25
1.5
Temperature Change
Sea-level Rise
20
15
1
10
0.5
5
Global Sea-level Rise from 1990 (cm)
o
Global Temperature Change from 1990 ( C)
3
0
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
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Concluding Remarks
• The energy-system GMM (Global, Multi-regional
MARKAL) model has been extended as follows:
• Clusters approach to technology learning
• Passenger car sector
• Hydrogen and Fischer-Tropsch production
technologies and CO2 capture technologies
• Marginal abatement curves for CH4 and N2O
• Link to the climate model MAGICC
18/19
Acknowledgements
•The contributions of Hal Turton, from the Environmentally
Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at IIASA, and
Peter Rafaj, from the Energy Economics Group (EEG) at
PSI, to these developments are highly appreciated. Several
of the extensions in the GMM model are based on previous
developments with the ERIS model at IIASA-ECS
•The support from the Swiss National Center of
Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR-Climate)
funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation is
gratefully acknowledged
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Support Slides
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The Energy-System GMM Model
• Clusters approach to technology learning
• Transport sector emphasizing passenger cars
• Energy-carrier production technologies (H2, alcohols, FT liquids, oil products, CNG, etc)
• Marginal abatement curves for CH4 and N2O
• CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in electricity and
synthetic fuel production
• Link to the climate MAGICC model
21/19
Reference Energy System in GMM
Oil
Refinery
Biomass
Natural Gas
Alcohol
Production
Biomass
Coal
Biomass
Nat. Gas
Coal
T&D
Heat Plants
T&D
Compressed
Nat. Gas
T&D
T&D
Fischer-Tropsch
Synthesis
T&D
Power Plants
Uranium
Coal
Nat. Gas
Biomass
CO2 Capture
Hydrogen
Production
CO2 Capture
Res/Comm
Specific
Industrial
Thermal
Industrial
Specific
Cars
T&D
Other
Renewables
Res/Comm
Thermal
Air Transport
Aggregate
other
Transport
T&D
Non-commercial
Biomass
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Passenger Car Demand
• Based on estimates of vehicle-km per region for the year2000 from Turton and Barreto (2004) and growth rates
from WBCSD (2004) up to 2050
• Doubling of global vehicle-km traveled over the time
horizon 2000-2050
• Faster growth in developing regions but a “car mobility
divide” still persists towards the middle of the 21st century
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Car Technologies in GMM
Technology
Fuel Efficiency
(v-km/MJ)
Initial Investment Cost
(US$2000 per car)
Starting
Date
Oil products standard ICEV
0.21-0.354
12425
2000
Oil products advanced ICEV
0.599
12825
2010
0.19-0.32
12625
2000
Oil products HEV
0.761
14338
2010
CNG HEV
0.658
14498
2010
Hydrogen HEV
0.814
15598
2020
Oil products FCV
0.656
35736
2020
Methanol FCV
0.735
31107
2020
Hydrogen FCV
1.060
25371
2020
Internal Combustion Engine (ICEV)
CNG standard ICEV
Hybrid-electric Vehicles (HEV)
Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV)
Source: Adapted from Ogden, J.M., Williams, R.H., Larson, E.D., 2004: Societal Lifecycle Costs of Cars with Alternative Fuels/Engines, Energy Policy 32, 7-27.24/19
Marginal Abatement Curves (MAC)
• Implementation of MACs for methane (CH4) and
nitrous oxide (N2O) following approach of MERGE
(Manne and Richels, 2003) and ERIS (Turton and
Barreto, 2004)
• Three categories: exogenous baseline, endogenous
baseline, non-abatable emissions
• Data from the U.S EPA (2003) study, potentials are
relative to baseline emissions
• Technical-progress multipliers to extrapolate
abatement potentials beyond 2020
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Technical Multipliers for
Non-CO2 Abatement Potentials
200
Abatement Cost (US$/ton C-eq)
Technical Multiplier
2020
2050
150
100
50
0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percentage of Baseline Emissions (%)
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Hydrogen Production and CCS
• Hydrogen production from coal gasification, biomass,
gasification, steam reforming of natural gas, electrolysis,
nuclear high-temperature reactors
• CO2 capture technologies for hydrogen production from
coal, gas and biomass and electricity production from
conventional coal, biomass and coal-based IGCC, NGCC
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Energy-related CO2 Emissions (Mt C)
CO2 Emissions
20000
LAFM
ASIA
15000
EEFSU
OOECD
NAM
10000
5000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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