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Future applications for
wood – opportunities
and limitations
Geoff Covey, Reg Harvey and Dennis Shore
Covey Consulting Pty Ltd
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
1
Looking to the future
• Predicting the future is notoriously difficult,
and has a history of failure.
• The further one tries to look ahead the
harder it becomes – but the less people
around at the end to tell you you were wrong!
•Compare 1906 with today, then think about
the next 100 years.
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1. Forestry.
• Environmental change.
• No more oil.
2.Forest products.
• Solid products.
• Fibres.
• Fuels.
• Silvichemicals.
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Forestry
•Not really our area, but some predictions possible.
•Clearer distinction between conservation and
production forests.
•Much more active forest management – real tree
farms, but on increasingly marginal land.
•Greater diversity – to suit particular applications –
including some totally artificial species.
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Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon dioxide?
Not today’s topic.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon dioxide?
Not today’s topic.
Even if unreal, precautionary changes will be made.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon dioxide?
Not today’s topic.
Even if unreal, precautionary changes will be made.
If real – and due to CO2 – some forest will be
required just to fix carbon – the resulting timber
cannot be burned or left to decay.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon dioxide?
Not today’s topic.
Even if unreal, precautionary changes will be made.
If real – and due to CO2 – some forest will be
required just to fix carbon – the resulting timber
cannot be burned or left to decay.
Need to reduce fossil fuel use will encourage use of
timber in place of metals (and perhaps polymers)
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon dioxide?
Not today’s topic.
Even if unreal, precautionary changes will be made.
If real – and due to CO2 – some forest will be
required just to fix carbon – the resulting timber
cannot be burned or left to decay.
Need to reduce fossil fuel use will encourage use of
timber in place of metals (and perhaps polymers)
Even if not due to CO2 – need forests that can resist
many decades of erratic weather.
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No more oil!
Oil reserves are finite – will probably be largely
depleted in 50-100 years.
For stationary power – hydro, nuclear, maybe
coal are more likely than wood.
For transport fuels wood has better prospects.
Ultimate choice will depend on whether green
house gases are also a problem.
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FOREST PRODUCTS
Solid products
Not our area, but a few safe bets:
•Sawmilling – less energy and waste
•Improved sawn timber dimensional stability.
•Chemical treatment for customised surface
properties.
•Greatly improved reconstituted products –
better structural strength.
•More timber for enclosures and structures.
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FIBRES
Despite decline in some segments, packaging
and hygiene products and increasing
prosperity in China and India will ensure
overall demand increase for some time yet.
Plantations for custom fibres, uniformity and
certified sustainable products.
Improved use of thinnings (too wet for fuel) –
hardwood substitute from young softwood.
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But not all from wood
Sugar cane for ethanol and fibre co-production.
Kenaf for long fibre bast and cellulosic core for
fuel.
Agricultural residues – to improve utilisation.
Shorter lead time to establish non-woods
plantations – very attractive in a changing world
– but less drought resistant than trees.
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FUELS
For a variety of reasons, there will be an
increasing demand for renewable energy
• For static power generation
• For transport
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Static power
Plenty of alternatives to wood:
• Hydro, geothermal, wind, solar (some
more practical on a large scale than
others).
• Nuclear – not renewable, but low impact.
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Static power
Plenty of alternatives to wood:
• Hydro, geothermal, wind, solar (some
more practical on a large scale than
others).
• Nuclear – not renewable, but low impact.
Wood fired power stations already under
consideration. They have advantage of
‘available when required’, but best for base
load power.
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Wood for static power
has its problems
•Very large plantation
areas and associated
logistics for large
scale operation.
Combustion of bagasse
85
80
Thermal efficincy
%
•Wet, especially if
harvested young, and
difficult to dry
economically on a
very large scale.
75
70
65
60
55
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Moisture content %
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Transport fuel
Ethanol by hydrolysis and fermentation
probably most promising at the moment.
It has operated on a massive scale in Brazil,
and on substantial scale in other countries.
Cellulose to ethanol has a stoichiometric
yield of 56.8% - perhaps 53% in practice?
Large land areas required.
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Ethanol for Australia?
Annual oil consumption
50 mill t = 2.1x109 GJ/a
Ethanol required to replace all oil
79 mill t/a.
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Ethanol for Australia?
Annual oil consumption
50 mill t = 2.1x109 GJ/a
Ethanol required to replace all oil
79 mill t/a.
At 53% yield, cellulose required
150 mill t/a.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Ethanol for Australia?
Annual oil consumption
50 mill t = 2.1x109 GJ/a
Ethanol required to replace all oil
79 mill t/a.
At 53% yield, cellulose required
150 mill t/a.
For typical cellulose and basic dens 600 mill m3/a
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Ethanol for Australia?
Annual oil consumption
50 mill t = 2.1x109 GJ/a
Ethanol required to replace all oil
79 mill t/a.
At 53% yield, cellulose required
150 mill t/a.
For typical cellulose and basic dens 600 mill m3/a
Assume 20 m3/ha – year (marginal land, uncertain
rain fall) New forest required for ethanol
33 million ha
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Is there room?
Total area of Australia is
7,686,850 km2
Current total forest area
166 million ha
Of which plantation is
1.6 million ha
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Is there room?
Total area of Australia is
7,686,850 km2
Current total forest area
166 million ha
Of which plantation is
1.6 million ha
Additional plantations for ethanol
33 million ha = 4.3% of all land
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Is there room?
Total area of Australia is
7,686,850 km2
Current total forest area
166 million ha
Of which plantation is
1.6 million ha
Additional plantations for ethanol
33 million ha = 4.3% of all land
Not impossible – but a very substantial
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change in land use
This is not the whole story
On the plus side – growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100
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This is not the whole story
On the plus side – growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100
BUT significant energy required to run the
forests and harvesting, the ethanol production
and ‘refining’ and distribution of product.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
This is not the whole story
On the plus side – growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100
BUT significant energy required to run the
forests and harvesting, the ethanol production
and ‘refining’ and distribution of product.
Ethanol from corn gives only 1.3 times as much
energy as it uses.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
This is not the whole story
On the plus side – growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100
BUT significant energy required to run the
forests and harvesting, the ethanol production
and ‘refining’ and distribution of product.
Ethanol from corn gives only 1.3 times as much
energy as it uses.
Ethanol from sugar cane – ratio is 8.3
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
This is not the whole story
On the plus side – growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100
BUT significant energy required to run the
forests and harvesting, the ethanol production
and ‘refining’ and distribution of product.
Ethanol from corn gives only 1.3 times as much
energy as it uses.
Ethanol from sugar cane – ratio is 8.3
For wood ???
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The balance
Biomass
type (whole
biomass
used)
Corn
Wheat
Sugar cane
Aspen
poplar
Douglas fir
Eucalyptus
Biomass Ethanol
Yield
L/t
t/ha-y
Ethanol Ethanol
L/ha-y Net
L/ha-y #
25.0
8.3
27.4
14.8
366
420
531
398
9150
3486
16128
7170
6.1
39.5
463
502
3700
24100
Different growth rate figures from previous example
2123
14024
???
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The challenges
Less energy intensive wood production
(despite higher growth rates).
Higher cellulose (and sucrose) content
crops.
Crops that suit future weather patterns.
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SILVICHEMICALS
Reducing availability of petroleum.
Increasing demand for cellulose for
paper and ethanol.
Large quantities of by product lignin
available as a feed-stock.
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YOU CAN MAKE
EVERYTHING OUT OF
LIGNIN – EXCEPT
MONEY
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The challenges
For scientist – new and better processes
For engineers – better efficiency and
economics.
For business – develop markets and take
the plunge.
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Perhaps?
1. Don’t treat lignin as a product – think of it a
feedstock.
Break it down to simple aromatics and
alcohols and build chemicals from them.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Perhaps?
1. Don’t treat lignin as a product – think of it a
feedstock.
Break it down to simple aromatics and
alcohols and build chemicals from them.
2. Develop new, high performance polymers
from lignin – exploiting its properties instead
of fighting them.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Perhaps?
1. Don’t treat lignin as a product – think of it a
feedstock.
Break it down to simple aromatics and
alcohols and build chemicals from them.
2. Develop new, high performance polymers
from lignin – exploiting its properties instead
of fighting them.
3. Develop new polymers which bond well with
cellulose fibres (chemistries are compatible)
and make new lignin-cellulose composites.
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CONCLUSIONS
The next 100 years should see increasing
demand for wood – both for some of the
old purposes, and for some new ones.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
CONCLUSIONS
The next 100 years should see increasing
demand for wood – both for some of the
old purposes, and for some new ones.
Enhanced performance will be demanded.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
CONCLUSIONS
The next 100 years should see increasing
demand for wood – both for some of the
old purposes, and for some new ones.
Enhanced performance will be demanded.
There will be plenty of work for wood
scientists!
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.
Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.