Transcript Northern Tier Transmission

WECC PCC Meeting
Salt Lake City, UT
July 16, 2014
2014-2015 Regional Transmission
Plan Timeline
June 11
January 2
Regional
Transmission
Plan (RTP) Data
Gathering and
Economic Study
Request (ESR)
Window Opens
January 31
1st Data
Submission
Deadline
(NTTG Footprint
requirements)
May 15
March 30 and 31
2nd
Data Submission
Deadline
(ESR’s and project and
cost allocation data)
Draft Study Plan,
including cost
allocation scenarios,
Q1 - 2014
January 22
(Portland, OR)
Q1 public meeting to
discuss NTTG Regional
Order 1000 RTP and
ESR Process
February 28
(Folsom, CA)
Interregional
information
exchange
Draft Schedule - subject to change
(Boise, ID)
Q2 public meeting to
present Draft Biennial
Study Plan to
stakeholders and
discuss updates on
FERC Orders
Q2 - 2014
April 15
Deadline to
cure Q1 data
submission
deficiencies
June 1
Regional
Economic
Study Plan
developed
June 24
(SLC, UT)
Steering Committee
meeting approved
Draft Biennial Study
Plan
2
2014-2015 Regional Transmission
Plan Timeline
September 16
December 2
(SLC, UT)
(Location: TBD)
Q3 public meeting to
discuss development of
the RTP, updates on
FERC Orders, and
Economic Study Results
Q4 public meeting to
present status report
on development of
RTP and receive
comments
Q3-Q4: 2014
September 30
Regional Economic
Study Complete; or
Sponsor notified with
explanation and
estimated completion
date
December 31
Planning Committee
produces a Draft
Regional Transmission
Plan, including Economic
Study Results
Draft Schedule - subject to change
Q5
Planning Committee
facilitates stakeholder
review and comment on
the Draft RTP
Plus Q5 ESR deliverables
Q7
Draft Final
Regional
Transmission Plan
Review
Plus Q6 ESR
deliverables
12
Q5-Q8: 2015
Q6
Cost Allocation Committee
allocates costs of projects
selected into the draft RTP.
Draft Final Regional
Transmission Plan Produced,
Plus Q7 ESR Deliverables
Q8
Regional
Transmission
Plan Approval
Plus Q8 ESR
Deliverables
3
Study Assumptions
● Loads forecasted for Balancing Areas internal to the
NTTG footprint
● Resources projected for Balancing Areas within NTTG
footprint
● Transmission Projects
● Full Funder Local Transmission Plan, Sponsored Project,
Unsponsored Project, or Merchant Transmission Developer
● A listing of applicable Public Policy Requirements for
the NTTG footprint is included in Study Plan Attachment 1
4
Balancing Area Loads
Balancing Area
Basin Electric
Black Hills
2013 Actual Peak
Demand (MW)
No Data
Submitted
No Data
Submitted
2021 Summer Load
Data Submitted in
Q1 2012 (MW)
2024 Summer Load
Data Submitted in Q1
2014 (MW)
476
No Data Submitted
465
No Data Submitted
Difference
(MW) 20212024
Idaho Power
3,407
4,383
4,193
-190
NorthWestern
1,707
1,680
1,774
94
9,842
10,358
506
3,795
3,644
-151
4,119
3,933
-186
23,819
23,892
73
PacifiCorp East
PacifiCorp West
Portland General
TOTAL*
No Data
Submitted
No Data
Submitted
3,900
5
Resource Changes
12000
11098
Comparison of Projected Generation
10000
8000
6605
6551
6000
4581
4000
2641
2024
2678
2000
1431
2021
500
36
37
60 135
0
47
0
117
82
20
0
-91
-1122
-2000
6
Resource Additions
State
Resource Additions
(MW)
California
-81
Idaho
81
Montana
584
Oregon
68
Utah
1,467
Washington
278
Wyoming*
708
7
Transmission Additions
Sponsor
Idaho Power
Great Basin Transmission
NorthWestern Energy
PacifiCorp East
Portland General
TransWest Express
Type
Projects
Voltage
Circuits
500 kV
2
500 kV – 230 kV
2
Southwest Intertie Project
North
500 kV
1
LTP
Broadview – Garrison Upgrade
500 kV
1
LTP
Millcreek – Amps Upgrade
230 kV
1
LTP
Gateway South Project
500 kV
1
LTP
Gateway West Project
500 kV – 230 kV
5
LTP
Blue Lake - Gresham
230 kV
1
600 kV DC
1
LTP
Gateway West Project
LTP
B2H Project
Sponsored
Merchant
Transmission
Developer
TransWest Express
8
Analysis Method
● Base cases will be developed using a production cost
model to determine the hours when load and resource
conditions are likely to stress the NTTG transmission
system
● Power flow analysis of the Initial Regional Plan for the
chosen hours will check compliance with the system
performance requirements and transmission needs
associated with Public Policy Requirements
9
Alternative Analysis
● Change Cases will be developed by replacing one or
more uncommitted projects in the Initial Regional Plan
with an Alternative Project that may meet the
transmission need
● Power flow analysis of the Change Case for the chosen
hours will check compliance with the system
performance requirements and transmission needs
associated with Public Policy Requirements
10
Selection of Projects into the
Plan
● Projects that are more efficient or cost effective will be
selected into the Regional Transmission Plan use the
following metrices:
● Capital cost
● Energy Losses
● Reserves
11
Capital Cost Validation
• The TEPPC Transmission Capital Cost Calculator (MS
Excel spreadsheet) will be used to validate submitted
project costs
– If the submitted costs vary from the Calculator output by 20%,
the Project Sponsor will be contacted to resolved differences
– If the difference cannot be resolved, the TWG will determine the
appropriate cost to apply
12
Energy Losses Analysis
• Power flow software will be used to compare losses
before and after a project is added to the system. A
reduction in losses after a project is added represents
the benefit. The energy loss valuation will be based on
average energy price for the study year
13
Reserves Analysis
• Evaluate a number of capacity sharing opportunities
among the various combinations of Balancing Areas
• The reserve metric will be accessed on a Balancing Area
basis and is based on the incremental load and
generation submitted by Transmission Providers
• The calculation will be performed using a spreadsheet
which will consider the savings between each Balancing
Area providing its own incremental reserve requirement
and a combination of balancing areas sharing a reserve
resource facilitated by uncommitted transmission
capacity
14
System Conditions to Study
• Using the TEPPC 2024 common case production cost
model with the GridView production cost software, the
TWG will identify the hourly data for several system
conditions, such as:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
peak coincident NTTG summer load condition;
peak coincident NTTG winter load condition;
conditions with maximum coincident NTTG net export;
conditions with minimum coincident NTTG export; and
additional system conditions as needed to meet the needs
of specific areas of the NTTG footprint
15
Common Case Transmission
Assumptions
16
Impacts on Neighboring
Regions
•
Will monitor the BES voltage and thermal loading in
ColumbiaGrid, WestConnect and CAISO to identify
potential violations of NERC, WECC or neighboring
planning regions system performance criteria
•
Will coordinate with the affected planning region to
verify results and, if necessary, identify potential
mitigation of violations within NTTG or the impacted
region
17
Cost Allocation Scenarios
•
The Cost Allocation Committee, with stakeholder inputs,
will evaluate allocation scenarios for those parameters
that will likely affect the amount of total benefits and
their distribution among Beneficiaries
•
To the extent feasible, the Cost Allocation Committee
will look to the data underlying local transmission plans,
integrated resource planning studies of LSEs within the
NTTG footprint, the assumptions and the forecasts used
to develop the alternative scenarios for each allocation
metric
18
Robustness of Initial
Regional Plan
•
The robustness analysis will use power flow analysis
and input from production cost analysis as needed to
test whether or not the 2024 Draft Regional
Transmission Plan transmission system performance
will remain acceptable assuming deviations from the
base case assumption
•
The TWG will use its discretion to define the deviations
from base case assumptions to test and may draw on
assumptions used in change cases or allocation
scenarios and will seek input from stakeholders through
the Planning Committee
19
Public Policy Considerations
Scenario
• The Planning Committee should proceed only with the
proposal from RNP to retire Colstrip units 1 and 2 and
replace with Montana wind resources in 2020
1. The RNP proposal to study the effects of retiring Colstrip Units 1, 2, 3
and 4 in 2027 are beyond the NTTG 10 year planning horizon and
outside the scope of the Regional Planning Cycle
2. The Northwest Energy Coalition request has already been studied by
the WECC Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee
(TEPPC)
● Since NTTG would use the same base case (as proposed by the
submitter) and the same modeling techniques, different results
would not be expected
20
Questions?