Transcript Bill Murtagh and Terry Onsager

Community Modeling Discussion
Grand Ballroom 5:00 – 6:30 Today
The space weather community has been asked by NSF to discuss and make
recommendation on a possible future community modeling program.
What is our vision for a community space weather
modeling program?
Summer Workshop – June 22, 2008
Sunday after CEDAR and before GEM/Shine in Zermatt, Utah
Contact organizing committee: Tim Fuller-Rowell, Joe Huba, Jon Linker,
Terry Onsager, Aaron Ridley, Chris Russell, Mike Wiltberger
Space Weather Prediction – Highest Priority Needs
W. Murtagh and T. Onsager
NOAA SWPC
Focus of this session: One-day advanced prediction
• Customer Requirements
• Major Space Weather Product Categories
• High Priority Need: One-Day Advanced Prediction
• Goal for Today’s Session and Follow-on Activities
Requirements
Electric Utilities
© ISO New England Inc.
2003
Process Name: Implement
Emergency Operations
Procedure: Implement
Solar Magnetic
Disturbance Remedial
Action
Procedure Number:
RTMKTS.0120.0050
Revision Number: 6
Procedure Owner: Steve
Weaver
Effective Date: March 29, 2005
Approved By: VP Operations
Review Due Date: January 1,
2006
1. Discontinue maintenance work and restore out of service high voltage
transmission lines. Avoid taking long lines out of service.
2. Maintain system voltages within acceptable operating range to protect
against voltage swings.
3. Review the availability of the Chester SVC and Orrington capacitor banks
to respond to voltage deterioration if necessary.
4. Adjust the loading on Phase 1 or Phase II, the Cross Sound Cable and
Highgate HVdc ties to be within the 40% to 90% range of nominal rating of each
pole.
5. Reduce the loading…
Station 3 Gen Transformer 4,
GIC damage – ESKOM, Oct
2003
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
User Requirement Timeliness
K-7 Geomagnetic Storm
Warnings
Customer
Rationale
Minutes to hours
Operators want as
much lead time as
possible, but any
lead time is
considered useful
North America
Electricity Reliability
Corp. (NERC)
Geomagnetic Storm
Warnings/Watches
1-2 days
>50% accuracy
Various Power
Companies
Allows maintenance procedures
that shut down some facilities to
be rescheduled, thus maintaining
the full reserve for emergency
situations.
Geomagnetic Storm
Warnings (K-5 through
K-9)
2-3 hours
>80% accuracy
Various Power
Companies
Bring reserve or maintenance
generation on line
Geomagnetic Storm
Warnings (K-5 through
K-9)
15-30 minutes
>90% accuracy
Various Power
Companies
Reduce loading: use more
conservative margins
Midwest
Independent
System Operator
(MISO)
If the index is K-7 or higher, MISO
notifies all NERC reliability
coordinators concerning the level
and expected duration of the
event. These forecasts are shared
with all power system groups in
North America so those power
systems that are particularly
susceptible to GIC can institute
preventive procedures
Requirements
Aviation
Communications
• SatCom and VHF communications are limited
over the Pole – HF becomes primary
• Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR 121-99) –
requires continuous communications
• Geomagnetic storms and solar radiation storms
can result in prolonged periods (days) of
degraded HF communications
Radiation Exposure
• A big concern for many
• Airlines have introduced restrictions on polar
route due to this increased radiation
• FAA have issued “advisory” (no mandates)
HF Communication only
AVIATION
User Requirement
Timeliness
Customer
Rationale
Forecasts (text or
graphics) of radiation
storms at energy levels
that could create a
radiation hazard for
aircrew and passengers
6, 12, and 18
hours
Airlines
Forecasts need to be early
enough to plan a crew change
(for a stop in route) and/or flightplan. 18 hours is best but a
lesser lead time will still aid in the
decision making
Nowcasts (text or
graphic) of radiation
storms at energy levels
that could create a
radiation hazard for
aircrew and passengers
Near real-time
(<30 minutes)
Airlines
Will enable mitigation procedures
to reduce dose during extreme
radiation storms
Graphical forecast
product to include
intensity, onset and
duration, and boundary
of degraded
communicated areas for
Polar routes
12 to 24-hours
Updated every 6
hours
FAA
NavCanada
(Air Traffic Control)
Airlines
Accurate predictions will help
with route selection and
management, emergency
response, and other critical
decision making processes at the
control centers
Requirements
GPS
Space Weather is single biggest source of error!
• Deep-sea drilling operations
• Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, etc.
• FAA navigation systems
• Various DoD operations
- Aircraft operations, weapon systems
Precision Farming
- Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed
control are necessary
• Fastest growing customer base
• Many “unsophisticated” users
• Currently rely heavily on geomagnetic K-index
• >K5 is level of concern
• Graphical products being introduced
GNSS and NAVIGATIONAL APPLICATIONS
User Requirement
Timeliness
Customer
Rationale
Forecasts of
ionospheric
total electron content
>1 hour
GNSS location
systems
Radar systems.
(civil and military)
Drilling operations
Surveying
Navigation
systems
Accurate predictions of a
disturbed ionosphere will
ensure GNSS systems users
postpone or modify operations
dependant on precision
measurements
Geomagnetic Kp and
Ap Forecasts
Hours to days
Surveying
Used for planning and
scheduling work.
If activity is expected they
consider rescheduling the
survey so as to avoid
erroneous survey results
Requirements
Spacecraft Operations
• High-energy electrons cause satellite
charging

Orbit maintenance using electric propulsion
must be planned and executed with
knowledge of this charging
• Satellite launch vehicles have a launch red line
condition of 100 pfu at > 50 MeV
• Operations Centers put spacecraft or instruments
in safe mode, or will curtail operations and limit
station-keeping maneuvers

Proton and geomagnetic storm requirements
vary by customer
LM A2100 GEO Communications Satellite
SATELLITE OPERATIONS
User Requirement
Timeliness
Customer
Rationale
Forecasts of hazardous
environments affecting
operational satellite
systems. Energetic particle
events and geomagnetic
storm conditions of varying
intensities
>1-2 days
Satellite operators
(civil and military)
Enables preventative measures to
be accomplished and recovery
procedures prepared. Spacecraft
vulnerabilities vary.
•
•
•
F10
Kp and Ap indices
Forecasts and
observations
Current values
Daily forecasts
3-day forecasts
27-day
forecasts
NASA
Essential in meeting the orbit
determination accuracy
requirements for NASA missions,
where they routinely determine the
orbit to within 20 meters. Predicted
values allow for accurate orbit
predictions that are required for
mission planning and scheduling.
Prediction and specification
of >50 MeV protons
Two days
before launch
to four minutes
before launch.
Satellite launch
companies
Launch teams cause single-word
multiple upsets in the rocket control
circuitry during launch. They
monitor the proton flux closely and
hold launch if >100 PFU at > 50
MeV. Warnings of severe events
more than 1 day ahead allow for a
planned launch delay.
NASA and DEEP SPACE OPERATIONS
•NASA
•International space
agencies
•Commercial space
providers
Onset time for a SEP
event
30 MeV up to 100-200
MeV
10 to 12 hour
forecast prior to a
likely event
Higher confidence in exposure
forecast
Greater mission schedule
assurance
Reliable forecasts of no
solar activity of
interest—i.e.,
all-clear forecasts.
95% Accuracy
Avoid 95% of SPEs
3 – 7 Day
•NASA
•International space
agencies
•Commercial space
providers
Higher confidence in exposure
forecast
Greater EVA scheduling flexibility
Greater mission schedule assurance
An all-clear forecast
following a major SEP
event or geomagnetic
storm so that normal
operations can be
resumed.
(Reliability TBD)
As Needed
•NASA
•International space
agencies
•Commercial space
providers
Higher confidence in exposure
forecast
Greater EVA scheduling flexibility
Greater mission schedule assurance
Space Weather Product Categories
• Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days)
• Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm)
• Alerts and Specifications (current conditions)
•
•
•
•
•
•
X-ray flares
Solar energetic particle events
Geomagnetic storms
Ionospheric disturbances
Radiation belt enhancements
Neutral density disturbances
Current Capabilities
Long-Term Forecast (1 - >3 days)
Short-Term Forecasts and Warnings
(<1 day)
Nowcasts and Alerts
M-flare and X-flare probabilities
M-flare and X-flare probabilities
X-ray flux – Global and regional
Energetic Particle Environment (protons and
electrons) – global and regional
Solar energetic particle probabilities
Energetic Particle Environment (protons and
electrons) – global and regional
Geomagnetic storm probabilities
Geomagnetic storm probabilities – global
and regional
Geomagnetic activity – global and regional
Ionospheric disturbance probabilities
Ionospheric disturbance probabilities global and regional
Ionospheric disturbances (TEC,
irregularities, HF propagation) – global and
regional
Solar irradiance flux levels (EUV and 10.7
cm) (1-7 days for f10.7)
Solar irradiance (EUV and f10.7) - global
What Progress Has Occurred in One-Day Prediction of:
•
•
•
•
•
Solar Flares X-ray Flux
Solar Energetic Proton Flux
Geomagnetic Activity
Radiation Belt Flux
Ionospheric/Neutral Atmosphere Disturbances
- How good are we?
- What are the most important next steps?
- How will we measure our progress?
Questions?
What should our next steps be?
• Provide metrics of current capabilities (SWPC)
• Select one specific area for model comparison
- Flare and CME eruption time and magnitude
- Solar proton event onset time and magnitude
- CME arrival time and storm strength
- Radiation belt electron level
- Ionospheric storm onset and magnitude
• Organize model comparison
• Publish and present results
• Consider transition to operational product