Transcript Green Gray Design Template for Slide Presentations

The National Water Census
* Part of the
Initiative
Overview of the Delaware River
Basin Focus Area Study
Jeffrey M Fischer
[email protected]
609-771-3953
Delaware Source Water Collaborative
May 8, 2014
Objective of the Water Census:
To place technical information and tools in the
hands of stakeholders, allowing them to
answer two primary questions about water
availability:
Does the Nation have enough freshwater to
meet both human and ecological needs?
Will this water be present to meet future
needs?
Water Availability Analysis
The process of determining the quantity and timing-characteristics of
water, which is of sufficient quality, to meet human and ecological
needs.
Technical Information
Socio-economic Considerations
Legal Considerations
Regulatory Considerations
Political Considerations
USGS only deals with the Technical
Information!
Provide Enhanced Information On:
Streamflow
Evapotranspiration (ET)
Ecological Flow Needs
Groundwater
Water Use and Consumption
 Thermoelectric Power
 Irrigation
 Public Supply
Information available at:
http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus
Daily ET from Satellite Data
Thermoelectric Consumptive Use
Information Delivery
A web application for delivering water availability information at
scales that are relevant to the user
Select the area of
interest.
Generate information
on water accounting
components.
Work with the online
tool to construct your
water budget.
Access trend
information.
Example from French Creek
Beta version available on line in next few weeks
http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus
Focused Water Availability Assessments
Testing grounds for the National Water Census
Water Quality
Groundwater
Resources
Water Use
Eco Flows
Surface Water Trends,
Precipitation, etc
Global
Change
State, Local, Regional
Stakeholder Involvement
Defined Technical
Questions to
be Answered
Delaware River Basin
Focus Area Study
USGS Water Census
Jeff Fischer, Susan Hutson, Jonathan Kennen, Kelly Maloney,
Marla Stuckey, Tanja Williamson, Ward Freeman,
And many more
Stakeholder Results – Areas of Study



Water Use – Improved acquisition, management, and
integration of water-use and water-supply data.
Robust Hydrologic Model – Evaluate growth of
population centers, effects of land-use change, and
effects of climate variability and climate change on
water resources
Ecological Water Needs – Development of ecologicalflow science for main stem & tributaries.
 Evaluate flow alteration effects for ungaged tributaries.
 Improve decision support tool on main stem
Today’s talk focuses on Water Use and
development of the Hydrologic Model.
Delaware River Basin Water Use
Temporal framework
Susan Hutson
Kristin Linsey
Russ Ludlow
Betzaida Reyes
Jennifer Shourds
 Base year 2010
 Multiple years as available

2005-2010
NJ and PA
Water-use transactions
 Withdrawals
 Type of use
 Return flows
 Interbasin transfers
 Aquifer Storage and Recovery
Data Collection
Delaware River Basin Water Use
 26,135 site-specific data records
 single and multiple years
 6,343 unique sites include 5 interbasin transfers
Water Type
Count
Percent
Groundwater
4,580
72
Surface water
1,001
16
Return flows
762
12
 Areal estimates
Livestock
Irrigation
Self-supplied Domestic
Data Collection
Total Water Use*
8% Groundwater
7,000 Mgal/d
92% Surface
Water
4,900 Mgal/d (70%)
Thermoelectric Power Generation
1,600 Mgal/d (23%)
Public supply and Self-supplied domestic
290 Mgal/d (4%)
Industrial, Commercial, and Mining
200 Mgal/d (3%)
Irrigation, Livestock, and Aquaculture
*
Hydroelectric power is an “in stream" use and is not included in this calculation.
Thermoelectric
4,900 Mgal/d
0% GW
100% SW
Withdrawals,
in Mgal/d
40%
60%
Saline
Fresh
0
>0 - 10
10 - 100
100 - 200
200 - 300
300 - 3100
Public Supply and Self-Supplied Domestic Withdrawals
1,600 Mgal/d

PS and DO Withdrawals
Public supply withdrawals
 1,500 Mgal/d

650 Mgal/d transferred out of basin
23%
77%
PS and DO Water
Use

Self-supplied Domestic
Withdrawals
 120 Mgal/d
37%
63%
SW
GW
Public Supply
Public Supply
Withdrawals
Public Supply
Transfers
Public Supply
Water Use
Withdrawals,in
Mgal/d
0
1 - 10
10 - 100
100 - 200
200 - 300
300 - 1000
Determining Self-Supplied Domestic
Jack Monti and Jason Finkelstein
Domestic use data not collected by U.S
Census since 1990. Developed current
domestic use estimates from:
•
USGS National Water Use Information Program
•
•
•
County use data every 5 years; 1985-2005
Estimates of total population served
U.S. Census
•
•
•
Decadal data on population and housing units
Block groups and blocks were analyzed
1990 census provided source of water information
per block group housing units
Statistical Determination of Domestic Use
Buck County, PA Example
Supply Housing
Public
House
Pub Supply
(percent)
Units
Units %
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Block Group
0.5
Used population density
95th percent value to
forecast/predict future
years.
0.4
0.3
0.2
Cut-off Limit
100% Line
95% Line
0.1
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Population Density per Sq Mile
100 percent domestic self supply
Top five % flip to public supply
100 percent public supply
Example for Sussex County, Delaware
1990 Population of P.S. block
groups (pink): 53,521
1990 Water-use Program
P.S. population : 54,430
Predicted population for P.S. blocks
in 2000 (light and dark purple):
83,819
2000 Water-use Program
P.S. population : 78,420
Basin-Wide Decadal Predictions
1990
2000
2010
Basin-Wide Results
Delaware River Basin Block Group Populations*
Year
Total
Domestic SelfSupply
Public Supply
Undetermined
1990 7,590,442 6,313,877 1,276,565
2000 8,061,808 6,544,054 1,517,754
2010 8,579,716 6,929,628 1,649,175
913
*Population totals not fully apportioned to Delaware River Basin extent
(Total includes parts of counties not fully in basin)
Industrial, Commercial,
and Mining 290 Mgal/d
15%
 Industrial
 240 Mgal/d


85%
Commercial

34 Mgal/d
Industrial,
Commercial,
& Mining
23%
77%
Mining

18 Mgal/d
47%
53%
Withdrawals,in Mgal/d
SW
GW
0
1 - 10
10 - 100
100 - 200
200 - 300
Agriculture
Agriculture
200 Mgal/d*
Irrigation
170 Mgal/d
44%
56%
9%
Livestock
9.2 Mgal/d
91%
Aquaculture
18 Mgal/d
39%
61%
SW
GW
* 60 percent of total was reported values
Withdrawals,in Mgal/d
0
1 - 10
10 - 100
100 - 200
200 - 300
Rasterizing Estimated Livestock & Irrigation Data
Combined:
 2010 USDA Crop Data Layer-CDL

2010 USGS county livestock or irrigation use data
And distributed by land use over county
Water Use Data Compilation & Dissemination
USGS SIR Report 2014
Web-portal data delivery
8-digit
subbasin
12-digit
subbasin
data and
methods
data
13
subbasins
Report out by end of calendar year
Web tool available in 2015
426
subbasins
Estimating Streamflow



Tool for predicting flow at ungaged basins based
on correlation with historic flow at gaged sites –
Marla Stuckey
Hydrologic model to evaluate how water
stressors such as population growth, land-use
change, and climate change affect the availability
of water resources – Tanja Williamson
Both models are used in current evaluations and
future predictions of ecological flow needs –
Jonathan Kennen
WATER Hydrologic Model
Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)
 Used as a decision support tool to evaluate how water
stressors such as population growth, land-use change, and
climate change affect the availability of water resources.
 Model encompasses the whole non-tidal Delaware River
Basin.
 Validated using precipitation, water-use, streamflow, and other
information for the time period 2001 to 2011.
 Simulations of future streamflow and water-availability
conditions centered on 2030 and 2060 will incorporate
projected changes in water use, land use, and climate in the
watershed.
Tanja N. Williamson, Jeremiah Lant, Elizabeth Nystrom,
Scott Hoffman, and Hugh Nelson
WATER Hydrologic Model
based on TOPMODEL

TOPography-based hydrological MODEL
 Developed by Beven and Kirkby, 1979
 “Physically-based watershed model that simulates
the variable-source-area concept of streamflow
generation.” (Wolock, 1993)

Three fundamental assumptions
 steady-state recharge to the groundwater
 hydraulic gradient of the water table ≈ the surface slope
 transmissivity profile decreases exponentially with depth
Beven, K.J. and M.J. Kirkby. 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin
hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin, v. 24, pp. 43-69.
Wolock, David M. 1993. Simulating the variable-source-area concept of streamflow generation with the
watershed model TOPMODEL. USGS WRI 93-4124.
Water Budget
Precipitation
Infiltration
Sub-surface flow
Direct
Saturated
Areas or
Impermeable
Surface
Over-land flow
ET
Evaporation
Qout
TOPMODEL topographic wetness index
 upslope contributing area 

TWI  ln


tan
slope


Grid cells with the
same TWI are
hydrologically
similar
Calculations need
not be performed
on every single
grid cell.
High values of TWI  High potential for saturation
Low values of TWI  Low potential for saturation
Soil Characteristics
Calculated “m”
SSURGO Variables
 Hydraulic conductivity (moderately
Conductivity Multiplier
high or higher)
 Field Capacity
 Available Water Capacity
 Porosity
 Thickness
Ksat - High
Ksat - Low
Scaling Parameter
f 
And…..
lnconductivity multiplier
soil depth
 Scaling Parameter “m” computed
from processed SSURGO data
 m = readily drained soil porosity/rate
of decrease with depth

m
porosity field capacity
f
WATER – A decision support tool
Precipitation Record
or Forecast
Landscape
Characterization
Current Condition
Gaged Streams
Validated
Model
Simulated Hydrograph
45
5
40
10
35
15
30
20
25
25
20
30
15
35
10
40
5
45
0
50
30-Jun
20-Jun
10-Jun
31-May
21-May
1-May
11-May
21-Apr
1-Apr
11-Apr
22-Mar
12-Mar
2-Mar
20-Feb
31-Jan
10-Feb
21-Jan
2003
1-Jan
Landscape change
0
Precipitation (mm)
Changed climate
Discharge (mm)
Current conditions
Potential Uses
50
11-Jan
Scenarios
Flow at
ungaged sites
Water availability
Land management
and
water allocation
decisions
Resolution of Spatial Layers
0
Ksat
NLCD
CTI
13.55
13.15
12.75
12.36
11.96
11.56
11.17
10.77
10.37
9.97
9.58
9.18
8.78
8.38
0.06
7.99
0.1
7.59
0.08
7.19
Fraction of Watershed
0.12
6.79
6.40
6.00
5.60
5.21
4.81
4.41
4.01
3.62
3.22
2.82
2.42
2.03
TWI
0.16
Site 03207965
0.14
Histogram
of TWI
0.04
Precipitation
Record
0.02
Incorporate Water-Use Data
Representative Values
 Long-term Median
 Seasonal
426 basins
12.48 km2
to
270.06 km2
Withdrawals
Returns/Discharges
Transfers
Seasonal Contribution to Annual Total
Percent of 2010 Total
Data distributed over HUC
12 Basins. This will protect
privacy information



Permit Number
Model Validation
 Minimally impacted basins
 1.5 to 675 km2 (0.6 to 261 mi2)

Comparison of streamflow
estimates
 USGS streamflow data

Evaluate potential bias in
water budget
 Snowpack
 PET
Sites will also be valuable for
evaluating future land use
change scenarios.
Reservoir Management System
Initial work focusing on basin
areas upstream of reservoirs.
Ultimately:
 WATER will export longterm record of flow in OASIS
format
 Use OASIS for points
downstream of reservoirs
 Non-OASIS users will use
lake delay
Flow
Snow
Snowpack Simulation – Upper Basin
Simulation of Evapotranspiration
Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) – Hamon (1963)
Simulated Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) – limited by soil-moisture
availability
For Future Hydrologic Predictions
WATER Model Needs Projections of
Changes in:

Water Use

Climate

Land Use (subject of next talk)
Future: Global Circulation Models (GCM)
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5
GCMs Previously used in the basin
 NCAR CCSM
 GFDL ESM2G, NOAA
 GISS-E2-H, NASA
 CGCM4-CanES
Change factor (delta) approach
Target time periods
 2030
 2060
Representative Concentration Pathways
 RCP4.5
 RCP8.5
Modeled
Area
3736
basins
10 km2
GCM
Area
6 – 10 Cells
100 – 200 km2
RCP scenario conditions
At Conclusion of the Delaware Study





Database of water withdrawal, use, and return flow
information for watersheds
Tool to estimate daily streamflow from 1960 to 2010
for ungaged streams
Hydrologic model of the non-tidal portions of the
watershed tributaries
Flow and aquatic assemblage response relations for
tributaries
An updated Decision Support System for sections of
the main-stem Delaware
Jeff Fischer [email protected] 609-771-3953