Transcript lecture26

Announcements
If you are needing to take a makeup exam #2, you need to see me
ASAP!
Aiming to hand back exam #2 and assignment #1 on Friday. Essays
and weather observation assignments graded.
Assignment #2 due next Wednesday.
The 2008 U.S. presidential election yesterday had the
highest percentage of voter turnout since:
A)1932: Franklin D. Roosevelt elected
B)1964: Lyndon Johnson elected
C)1980: Ronald Reagan elected
D)1992: Bill Clinton elected
E) 2000: George W. Bush elected
19th Century: NO NWP
Everybody
complains about
the weather, but
nobody does
anything about it!
MARK TWAIN
Born in Hannibal, Missouri
21st Century: WITH NWP
Everybody complains
about the weather
forecast, but nobody
really understands
the weather!
If he were alive today…
(Likely living near Newburgh, Indiana...)
So why do forecasts go wrong?
Think about ALL the possible caveats we’ve already discussed:
Model sensitivity
Inadequate data to specify the initial state (analysis)
Unresolved scaled scales and physical processes
Still is a lot about processes in weather and climate we don’t
understand
An inexperienced meteorologist
EVEN IF WE COULD “FIX” ALL OF THE ABOVE, IT WOULD STILL BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO MAKE SKILLFUL AND ACCURATE WEATHER
FORECASTS USING A NUMERICAL MODEL BEYOND ABOUT TWO
WEEKS.
Chaos: A Fixed Limit to Weather Forecasting—
Independent of the specific model
Chaos: System exhibits erratic behavior
in that small errors in the specification of
the initial state lead to unpredictable
changes sometime in the future.
In NWP, there will ALWAYS uncertainty
in the specification of the initial state—
no way around it!
Bottom line: After about two weeks,
can’t rely on NWP to provide an
accurate and skillful weather forecast.
Sometimes called the “butterfly effect”
Dr. Ed Lorenz
Professor, MIT
First one to describe chaos
NATS 101
Section 4: Lecture 26
Thunderstorms and Severe Weather
Part I
Thunderstorm:
A storm
containing
lightning or
thunder.
Particular weather hazards:
Heavy rain
Hail
High winds
Tornadoes
Basic ingredient for thunderstorm…
A conditionally unstable
environment through a deep enough
layer in the troposphere to develop
a cumulonimbus cloud
Conditionally Unstable
Environmental lapse rate between the moist and dry adiabatic lapse
rate.
Air does not resist upward motion if condensation is occurring. Unlike
the absolute unstable case, this condition can happen a lot in the
atmosphere!
If clouds form, they will have vertical development.
How deep convection is depends on how far
up the instability goes in the atmosphere
Cumulus humilis
Cumulus congestus
Conditionally unstable
in a shallow layer
Conditionally unstable
about midway through
troposphere
Cumulonimbus
Conditionally unstable
nearly to the tropopause
In meteorology, this potential energy
associated with conditional instability
has a special name
CAPE
Convective Available Potential Energy
Air mass thunderstorm
(Ordinary Cell Thunderstorm)
“Garden variety” thunderstorm that
starts out as a puffy cumulus
cloud, grows into a cumulonimbus,
and then quickly dissipates.
Entire process happens in a matter
of hours or less.
Air mass
Thunderstorm
Cumulus Stage
A parcel of air is lifted from surface (updraft)
As the parcel rises, it reaches the lifting
condensation level and forms a cumulus
cloud. Air continues to rise because
condensation occurs.
Lifting mechanisms include:
Mountain-valley circulations
Sea-breeze front
Thermals arising from the land surface.
Air mass
Thunderstorm
Mature Stage
Cumulonimbus with anvil.
Cloud liquid and ice particles
grow larger, eventually falling to
the ground as rain.
Process draws in drier air
surrounding the could to create a
downdraft.
Leading edge of the downdraft is
called the gust front.
Mature air mass thunderstorm
with gust front
Gust front can provide a lifting mechanism to get other storms going.
Monsoon Thunderstorms in Arizona
Forced by the diurnal
mountain valley circulation
Form over the mountains
during late morning to
early afternoon
Reach mature stage by
about mid-afternoon.
(Photo taken around 3pm)
Monsoon thunderstorms at Kitt Peak at
mature stage with gust fronts.
Air mass
Thunderstorm
Dissipating Stage
DOWNDRAFT
Gust front moves far enough
away from the storm to “choke
off” the updraft.
Once this supply of warm,
moist air is from the updraft is
cut off, the storm begins to
weaken either by evaporation
and/or by raining itself out.
Again, the air mass thunderstorm is
the “garden variety” one…
To get more the more organized,
longer lived severe
thunderstorms, we need a
combination of more ingredients
Ingredients for severe thunderstorms
INGREDIENT 1: CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
Needs to be through the depth of the troposphere
Make the atmosphere more conditionally unstable by:
Warming and moistening near the surface
Cooling and drying aloft
INGREDIENT 2: WIND SHEAR
Change in horizontal wind speed through a vertical depth.
If the wind speed changes direction as well that’s even better!
Why is wind shear a necessary
ingredient for severe thunderstorms?
CUMULUS STAGE
Updraft only
MATURE STAGE
Updraft + downdraft
NO WIND
SHEAR
WITH
WIND
SHEAR
MOST
FAVORABLE
FOR GROWTH
(Bluestein)
Wind shear allows the updraft to be maintained in the cloud and not get
choked off by the downdraft—so the thunderstorm keeps receiving the
warm, moist air it needs to keep growing.
Where to look for severe thunderstorms
(in central and eastern U.S.)
In the vicinity of a mid-latitude cyclone
Strong upper level winds from the north and west
Surface winds from the south to southeast (a low-level jet)
Fronts, particularly in front of and at a cold front in the warm sector
Drylines: transition zone between dry cT air and moist mT air
Very common in the southern Great Plains.
THESE CAN ENHANCE:
1. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
2. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY (i.e. CAPE)
More Organized Severe
Thunderstorm Types
In approximate order of severity
Multicell thunderstorms
Less severe
Squall lines
Mesoscale Convective Complexes
Supercells
Most severe
Multicell Thunderstorms
In moderate shear, thunderstorms can get a bit more organized,
numerous and have longer lifetimes.
Note the tilted structure of the anvil with respect to the cloud
base—this indicates wind shear.
Squall Line
Line of thunderstorms that
can be hundreds of miles
long.
AR
Form along the cold front
or ahead of it in the warm
sector
TX
LA
Squall lines on radar image in the
warm sector of Colorado low.
(February 2007 Case)
Heavy precipitation on the
leading edge and then
light rain behind.
Multiple lines may form,
with the leading line being
the most severe.
Idealized squall line
thunderstorm structure
Note the wind shear profile
Shelf cloud at leading edge of squall line
Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)
A number of individual
thunderstorms cluster
together to form a giant
circular convective weather
system.
Can be the size of an entire
state!
Most common in summer,
originating from convection
which forms over mountains
(the Rockies in the case of
U.S.)
Derecho or Straight Line Wind
Bow echoes are typically
found in well developed
mesoscale convective
complexes.
These produces very
strong (straight line) winds
which can potentially
exceed hurricane force
(75 mph).
Called a derecho
(Spanish = straight ahead)
SUPERCELL
A BIG ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THAT
CONSISTS OF A ROTATING
UPDRAFT.
THE MOST SEVERE TYPE
OF THUNDERSTORM!
Ingredients for a supercell
INGREDIENT 1: HIGH “CAPE”
Make the atmosphere more conditionally unstable by:
Warming and moistening near the surface
Cooling and drying aloft
INGREDIENT 2: LARGE HELICITY
Helicity is essentially the wind shear, or change in horizontal wind
speed and direction, through a vertical depth.
NECESSARY FOR THE STORM TO ROTATE!
(NEW) INGREDIENT 3: A CAPPING INVERSION
An inversion that occurs near about 800-mb. Only a few strong
updrafts break through the cap and utilize the enormous amount of
convective available potential energy
THERE IS A CERTAIN KIND OF
SOUNDING FROM THE
WEATHER BALLOON THAT
MAKES THE METEOROLOGIST
SHAKE IN THEIR BOOTS!
THE “LOADED GUN” SOUNDING
THE SIGNATURE FOR SUPERCELLS!
CAPPING
INVERSION
COOL AND
DRY ALOFT
WARM AND MOIST
NEAR SURFACE
WIND
DRASTICALLY
CHANGES IN
SPEED
AND DIRECTION
WITH HEIGHT
Supercell structure
(Bluestein)
The fronts in this case indicate the gust fronts.
Supercells on radar
KANSAS
NOT big long
squall lines!
Get compact and
isolated rotating
cells!
OKLAHOMA
TEXAS
RADAR REFLECTIVITY
DOPPLER WIND VELOCITY
YELLOW = AWAY FROM RADAR
BLUE = TOWARD RADAR
QUESTION: WHAT DO YOU DO IF TURN ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL AND
YOU SEE THIS COMING TOWARDS YOUR HOUSE??
HINT: ANSWERING CORRECTLY WILL PROBABLY SAVE YOUR LIFE!
HERE’S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE
LOADED GUN FIRES…
Summary of Lecture 26
A thunderstorm is a storm containing lightning or thunder. Associated
weather hazards include heavy rain, hail, high winds, and tornadoes.
Basic ingredient for a thunderstorm is a conditionally unstable
environment deep enough to develop cumulonimbus clouds.
The air mass thunderstorm is the “garden variety” thunderstorm that
forms in an environment of low vertical wind shear and lasts an hour or
less.
Cumulus stage: Updraft only
Mature stage: Updraft + downdraft with gust front.
Dissipating stage: Updraft ceases, storm rains out or evaporates
Wind shear allows the updraft to be maintained in a cumuliform cloud,
allowing the thunderstorm to keep growing and have a long lifetime.
Severe thunderstorms include: multicell, squall line, mesoscale
convective complex, and supercell. Know the differences between these
types.
Reading Assignment and
Review Questions
Reading: Chapter 14 (cont.)
Chapter 14 Review Questions
Review: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,23,25 (8th ed.)
1,2,3,4,5,6,9,11,12,14,15,29,35 (9th ed.)
Thought: 1-3,9
Problems and Ex.: 1,5