Transcript Global Warming

Global Warming
So What? .
March 2014 .
FOOD
.
WATER
Rainfall becomes more variable.
Planet-wide, we get a little more rain.
Around the Arctic gets lots more, mid-latitudes (20-40°)
less. .
Yet in any one place, we get
more hours and days without rain.
In other words,
we get more downpours and floods,
yet also longer, drier, hotter droughts.
Evaporation increases.
Droughts Worsen.
Droughts Worsen .
~ means “approximately, roughly, is about equal to”
One MW can power several hundred US homes.
1°C = 1.8°F.
Earth Is Heating Up
• Earth now absorbs 0.25% more energy than it emits a 300 million MW heat gain. (±75 million MW)
This absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960.
300 million MW = 70 x global electric supply = 20 x human energy use.
Earth must warm another 0.6°C, so far,
so it emits enough heat to balance absorption.
• Air at the land surface is 1.0°C warmer than 100 years ago.
Half that warming happened in the last 33 years.
•
Air at the sea surface is 0.8°C warmer than 100 years ago.
• The oceans have gained ~ 10 x more heat in 40 years
than ALL the energy humans have EVER used.
Heat Content (1022 Joules)
Of the net energy absorbed by Earth from the Sun, ~84% went to heat the oceans.
7% melted ice, 5% heated soil, rocks and trees, while 4% heated the air. Levitus, 2005
I
1022 Joules =
101 years of
US energy use,
at 2000-13 rate
1967-1990 0.4 x 1022 Joules / yr
1991-2005 0.7 x 1022 Joules / yr
2006-2013 1.2 x 1022 Joules / yr
acceleration
= 20 x human use
Change since 1967 = 28 x 1022 Joules
= 3,000 years of US energy use
= 0.61 x 1022 Joules / year
From 2007 to now, ocean heat gain has switched to mostly (70%) below 700 meters deep.
Since 2007, ~90% goes to heat oceans, less to air and others. We notice air heating slower.
•
•
from 1951-80 Baseline - ЖЎC
Temperature Difference
∆°C
.90
Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG Warming
Global Air Temperatures
.75
NASA GISS - Earth’s
.60
7,000 weather stations
- adjusted for urban
heat island effects
sulfates still
3x 1880 levels
Brown .
cloud .
grows
over ..
China,
India. .
cool
at Land Surface
.45
.30
.15
Pinatubo
erupts
cool
Coal-Fired Power Plants
Sulfates
up 52%
(61/40).
Sulfates
fall 13%.
Sulfates
up 46%.
cool
El
Chichón
erupts
cool
.00
Katmai,
-.15
-.30
Krakatoa
erupts
Santa Maria,
Colima
Soufriere,
Pelee erupt
erupt
cool
-.45
-.60
cool
1880
coo
l
1900
Great
Depression
less SO2
up the stacks
Agung
erupts
cool
US SO2
cuts start.
warming
unmasked
5-year mean
1920
Cooling
offsets
Cooling
40
89
GHG
limits 61
warming.
1880 GHG
warming.
1940
1960
Cooling
offsets
77
GHG 116
warming.
Sulfate Levels in Greenland Ice
milligrams of Sulfate per Ton of Ice
1980
162
2000
118
2000
(Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, 2002)
Tipping Points
•
Report to US & British Legislators - January 2006
What would make climate change accelerate,
so natural forces defeat our efforts to slow it?
1 Disappearance of sea ice
means more heat is absorbed by the water below.
2 Carbon sinks fade, fail, and even reverse
in oceans & forests.
3 Methane release from permafrost
revs up warming in a vicious circle.
More Heat - So? Water
Hurricanes convert ocean heat to powerful winds & heavy rains.
Intense hurricanes are becoming more common.
Higher hurricane energy closely tracks sea surface warming.
With more carbon, oceans have grown more acidic.
So, forming shells is more difficult. They dissolve easier.
Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen.
Fish & mollusks suffer.
Sea surfaces warmed 0.15°C over 1997-2004,
so plankton absorbed 7% less CO2.
Warming was far strongest in the North Atlantic.
CO2 uptake there fell by half.
Ocean phytoplankton levels are down 40% since the 1950s.
Phytoplankton supply half of Earth’s oxygen.
Reservoirs in the Sky
Most mountain glaciers dwindle ever faster:
in the Alps, Andes, Rockies, east & central Himalayas.
When Himalayan glaciers vanish, so could
the Ganges River in the dry season.
Mountain snows melt earlier.
CA’s San Joaquin River (Central Valley, US “salad bowl”)
could dry up by July in most years.
The Colorado River’s recent 10-year drought was
the worst since white men came.
Earth’s Thermostat
Greenland’s ice-melt rate rose 5 x over the past 15 years.
Its net melt-water already ~ US water use.
The situation is similar in Antarctica...
Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking fast, especially in 2012.
.
Minimum icepack area fell 37% in 34 years,
while its minimum volume fell 72%, 53% in the last 10.
It could vanish by fall in 4 years & be gone all summer in 10.
Sea level will likely rise 1-7 feet by 2100 & far more afterward.
Thawing Arctic permafrost holds 6 x the carbon ever emitted by our fossil fuels
= 2 x the carbon in Earth’s atmosphere.
Already, permafrost’s carbon emission rate ~ that from all US vehicles.
Thawing permafrost can add ~100 ppm of CO2 to the air by 2100,
and almost 300 ppm more by 2300.
Seabed methane hydrates & Antarctica hold much more carbon.
What Else? Hot & Dry
From 1979 to 2005, the tropics spread. .
Sub-tropic arid belts grew ~140 miles toward the poles, .
a century ahead of schedule. .
That means our jet stream moves north more often.
In turn, the US gets hot weather more often.
2011-12 was America’s hottest on record.
.
Over September 2011 - August 2012, relative to local norms,
33 states were drier than the wettest state (WA) was wet.
In 2012, 44 of 48 states were drier than normal...
Severe drought covered a record 35-46% of the US , for 39 weeks.
.
Drought reduced the corn crop by a quarter.
Record prices followed.
The soybean crop was also hit hard.
By 2003, forest fires burned 6 x as much area / year as before 1986.
by 2050.
Pine bark beetles ravage forests. US fires will double
.
.
When I was young, the leading wheat producers were the
US Great Plains, Russia’s steppes, Canada, Australia, and Argentina’s Pampas. .
Notable Recent Droughts
When
Where
How Bad
hotter in 2012
2003
France, W Europe record hot , 20-70K die.
2003-10 Australia
worst in millennia , hundreds die
2005
Amazon Basin
once a century
2007
Atlanta, US SE
once a century
2007
Europe: Balkans record heat, Greek fires , hundreds die
2007-9 California
record low rain in LA. CA worse in 2013.
2008-9 Argentine Pampas worst in half century
2008-11 North China
~worst in 2 centuries. China now #1 in wheat.
2009
India
monsoon season driest since 1972
2010
Amazon Basin
worse than once a century
2010
Russia
15K die. record heat, forest fires. Wheat prices up 75%.
2011
Texas, Oklahoma record heat & drought
2012
US: SW, MW, SE most widespread in 78 years; record heat
Is That All?
No Water
..
Over 1994-2007, deserts grew from 18 to 27% of China’s area.
With more evaporation & irrigation,
many water tables fall 3-20 feet / year.
..
Since 1985, half the lakes in Qinghai province (China) vanished.
92% in Hebei (around Beijing).
Irrigation wells chase water ever deeper.
Water prices rise.
Inland seas and lakes dry up & vanish:
the Aral Sea, Sea of Galilee, Lake Chad (Darfur), Lake Eyre.
More rivers fail to reach the sea:
the Yellow, Colorado, Indus, Darling Rivers so far.
Extreme Drought Can Clobber Earth
• In 1989, NASA climate models showed, as CO2 levels rise and
Earth warms up, droughts would spread and intensify.
• “Once-per-9-year” droughts would cover 27% of Earth by 2002.
• With business as usual emissions, by 2059
CO2 levels would double pre-industrial levels.
• As a result, Earth would warm 4.2°C [7.5°F] from 1880 levels.
Rain would increase 14%.
• Despite the added rain,
increased evaporation
would bring extreme
“once-a-century” drought
to 45% of Earth, & rising.
WET
DRY
0
1
5
16
36
36
16
5
1
0
% Occurrence in Control Run
Fig. 1d in David Rind, R. Goldberg, James Hansen, Cynthia Rosenzweig, R. Ruedy, “Potential Evapotranspiration and
the Likelihood of Future Droughts,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 95, No. D7, 6/20/1990, 9983-10004. .
•
•
Droughts Are Spreading Already.
Palmer Drought Severity Index < -3.0
% with Severe or Extreme Drought -
Switch from what could happen to what has happened already.
Very Dry Areas - % of Global Land Area , 60ЎS - 75ЎN
30
precipitation effect
warming effect
precipitation + warming
25
20
15
30% = 16 million square miles
Compare 2002
to 1979.
11% of the area during 1951-80:
once per 9 years
Area where rain is scarce
increased by quite a bit:
3-6 million square miles.
10
5
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
-5
from Fig. 9 in Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, Taotao Qian [NCAR], "A
Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002:
Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming,”
Journal of Hydrometeorology, December 2004, 1117-1130
Compare 30% actual severe drought area in
2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27%
projected for 2000-2004 in previous slide.
Droughts spread, as projected or faster.
Evaporation at work
Earth’s area in severe drought has tripled since 1979.
Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America.
SUMMARY
Severe drought has arrived, as projected or faster.
Severe drought now afflicts an area the size of Asia.
So, farmers mine groundwater ever faster for irrigation.
From 1979 to 2002
(+0.5°C) .
1) The area where rain is scarce
increased by the size of the United States.
Add in more evaporation.
.
2) The area with severe drought
grew by the size of North America.
3) The area suffering severe drought tripled.
4) The similarly wet area shrank by the size of India.
In 2005-6, scientists calculated how climate would change
for 9 Northeast and 6 Great Lakes states in 2 scenarios:
#1 - a transition away from fossil fuels, or
#2 - continued heavy reliance on them (business as usual emissions).
By 2085,
averaged across 15 states, the climate change would be like
moving 330 miles to the SSW (coal & oil use dwindle), or
moving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal & oil use).
Consider central Kansas, heart of wheat country.
330 miles to the SSW lies the area from Amarillo to Oklahoma City.
650 miles to the SSW lies the area around Alpine & Ft. Stockton, Texas.
2 people / square mile. Cactus grows there.
Mesquite & sagebrush too.
No wheat
Turning Wheat into Cactus
What Drives Drought?
• The water-holding capacity of air rises
exponentially with temperature.
• Air 4°C warmer holds 33% more moisture
at the same relative humidity. Thus,.
more moisture in the air does not equal more clouds.
To maintain soil moisture,
~10% more rain is required to offset each 1°C warming.
Warmth draws more water UP (evaporation), so
less goes DOWN (into soils) or SIDEways (into streams).
More water is stored in the air, less in soils.
Not all the water that goes up comes back down.
Droughts - Why Worry?
2059 - 2 x CO2 (Business as Usual Emissions)
.
Rind et al., 1990
• More moisture in the air, but 15-27% less in the soil.
• Average US stream flows decline 30%, despite 14% more rain.
• Tree biomass in the eastern US falls by up to 40%.
• More dry climate vegetation: savannas, prairies, deserts
The vegetation changes mean
• Biological Net Primary Productivity falls 30-70%.
SWITCH from PROJECTIONS to ACTUALS. .
2005
• Satellites show browning of the Earth began in 1994. Fung
.
Zhao 2010
Droughts - Why Worry?
.
Crop Yields Fall.
Rind et al., 1990
United States: 2059 Projections
doubled CO2 - Business as Usual
– Great Lakes, Southeast, southern Great Plains
• Corn, Wheat, Soybeans - 3 of the big 4 crops (rice is the 4th)
2 Climate Models (Scenarios)
.
(based on 4.2°C warmer, 14% more rain)
• NASA GISS Results
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
–Yields fall 30%, averaged across regions & crops.
• NOAA GFDL Results
(based on ~ 4.5°C warmer, 5% less rain)
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab
–Yields fall 50%, averaged across regions & crops.
CO2 fertilization not included
Plants evaporate (transpire) water in order to
[like blood]
(1) get it up to leaves, where H2O & CO2 form carbohydrates,
(2) pull other soil nutrients up from the roots to the leaves, and
[like sweat]
(3) cool leaves, so photosynthesis continues & proteins aren’t damaged.
When water is scarce,
fewer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, etc.) get up to leaves.
So, with more CO2,
leaves make more carbohydrates, but fewer proteins.
Photosynthesis, Warming & CO2
For wheat, corn & rice, photosynthesis in leaves
slows above 35°C (95°F) and stops above 40°C (104°F).
Warming (above 35° or 40°C) hurts
warm, tropical areas harder & sooner.
Over 1992-2003, warming above the norm cut
corn, rice & soybean yields by ~10% / °C.
Over 1982-98, warming in 618+ US counties cut
corn & soybean yields ~17% / °C.
With more CO2, 2°C warming cut
yields 8-38% for irrigated wheat in India.
Warmer nights since 1979 cut
rice yield growth 10%± in 6 Asian nations.
Warming since 1980 cut
wheat yield growth 5.5%, corn 3.8%.
Heat Spikes Devastate Crop Yields
Schlenker & Roberts 2009
Average yields for corn and soybeans could
plummet 37-46% by 2100 with the slowest warming
and 75-82% with quicker warming.
Why?
Corn and soybean yields rise with warming up to 29-30°C,
but fall more steeply with higher temperatures.
Heat spikes on individual days have BIG impacts.
More rain can lessen losses. Plants transpire more water to cool off.
Growing other crops, or growing crops farther north, can help too.
Some scientists are saying publicly that if humanity
goes on with business as usual, climate change could
lead to the collapse of civilization, even in the lifetime of
today's children.
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said
“I think that is a correct assessment.” He added carefully
“If we take action today, it may not be too late.”
September 24, 2007
UN Chief on Climate Change
With food stocks at low levels, food prices rose steeply in 2007-8 and 2010.
World Food Price Index
240
2002-04 = 100
220
200
180
160
140
120
UN, Food & Agriculture Organization: World Food Situation / FAO News
100
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Poor people could not afford to buy enough food in 2007-8. Ditto. 2010-11.
Malnutrition & starvation rose. Food riots toppled governments in 2011.
US $ / Tonne
•
World Grain Prices
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
UN: Food & Agriculture Organization
Rice
Over 2005-7, .
world prices .
rose 125%
.
for wheat,
.
100% for corn, .
27% for rice. + .
soybeans 83% .
in just 1 year. .
Look at 2008. .
Wheat
J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Over 2006-7, .
food prices rose .
18% in China, .
Corn
13% in Indonesia .
& Pakistan, .
10+% in India, .
Russia &
.
J O J A J
2012
2013 Latin America. .
Over 2007-8, world food prices rose 20-150%.
.
In the US, food prices rose too: whole wheat bread 12%, milk 29%, eggs 36%.
Why?
Grain for ethanol, more meat for China, droughts in Australia, Ukraine, Russia , devalued $.
High oil prices mean more $ for fertilizer & pesticides, & especially to fuel pumps & tractors.
1.1°C warming is here. 2°C has become unavoidable.
Holding warming to 2°C, not 4°, prevents these losses:
3/4 of Gross World Product
$42 Trillion ~ 3/4 of GWP
1/5 of the World’s Food .
2/3 of Amazon Rainforest
1/8 of the world’s oxygen supply
Gulf Stream +
West Antarctic Icecap - Norfolk area, much. of
Florida & Louisiana, central CA, Long Island, Cape Cod
1/2 of all Species .
2°C warming is manageable. 4°C threatens civilization itself.
Details to follow: first 2°C, next 3°, then 4°, finally 5°C.
2° vs 4° Warming
2°C Warming - 450 ppm CO2e*.
* also includes
CH4, O3, SO4, etc.
.
(Waxman-Markey bill or Kerry-Boxer bill in Congress)
Stern Review, British government, Oct. 2006
.
.
(a report by dozens of scientists, headed by the World Bank’s chief economist)
selected effects - unavoidable damages
.
.
• Hurricane costs double. Many more major floods
• Major heat waves are common. Forest fires worsen.
• Droughts intensify. Deserts spread.
• Civil wars & border wars over water increase: more Darfurs.
• Crop yields rise nowhere, fall in the tropics.
• Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible.
• The Ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh.
3°C Warming - 550 ppm CO2e
(McCain-Lieberman bill, watered down)
additional damages – avoidable
Stern Review +
• Droughts & hurricanes get much worse.
• Hydropower and irrigation decline. Water is scarce.
• Crop yields fall substantially in many areas.
• More water wars & failed states. Terrorists multiply.
• 2/3 of Amazon rainforest may turn to savanna, desert scrub.
• Tropical diseases (malaria, etc.) spread farther & faster.
• 15-50% of species face extinction.
.
4°C Warming - 650 ppm CO2e .
.
(double pre-industrial levels)
(Bush proposal)
further damages - avoidable
•
Stern Review
Water shortages afflict almost all people.
• Crop yields fall in ALL regions, by 1/3 in many.
• Entire regions cease agriculture altogether.
• Water wars, refugee crises, & terrorism become intense.
• Methane release from permafrost accelerates.
• The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons often fail.
• West Antarctic ice sheet collapse speeds up.
5°C Warming - 750 ppm CO2e
(Business as Usual Emissions)
.
Deserts GROW by 2 x the size of the US.
World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2.
Human population falls a lot,.
to match the reduced food supply.
Other species fare worse.
Take Carbon Out of the Air.
1 Rebuild rangelands.
Perennial grass roots add carbon to soil.
Speed up process 10-50 x with short rotation cattle grazing.
Dung beetles move carbon underground. Lots more rain soaks in. .
Absorb 1 Ton of carbon / acre / year. Cut CO2 by 80 ppm in decades.
2 Farming right can put 1.5 - 4.3 GT CO2 / yr in soils, for $20-100 / T.
Organic farms add 0.5 T of carbon (1.8 CO2) / acre / year to soil.
3 Rocks have weathered for eons, taking 1 GT CO2 / yr from the air.
Speed up natural process 10 x.
Move CO2 to crushed rock.
Spread around millions of 2-story towers with crushed rock.
4 Add iron filings to select ocean areas. Algae bloom, suck CO2 from the air.
Algae must suck 8 x as much carbon from the air as our food supply does,
just to break even. Oceans may be too small, even if fertilization works well.
Dead algae may not sink. Tiny critters eat them; soon carbon returns to air.
5 Bury biochar in shallow pits.
Rebuild soil carbon even more.
* Misc. = Korea, Indonesia,
Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia,
Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.
Mid-East.
& C Asia
8.7%
Europe
13.6%
World CO2 Emissions
•
from Fossil Fuels
.
.
32.6 Billion Tons in 2011
Misc. Asia .
India
7.3%
5.3%
Russia
5.5%
Latin
Americ
a
Other
10.2%
United
States
16.9%
US DOE / EIA
.
Japan
3.6%
Africa
3.5%
Canada
1.7%
Oceania
1.4%
China
27.0%
In 2012, US fossil fuel CO2 comes 42% from oil, 29% from coal, 29% from natural gas.
35% comes from electricity, 33% from transportation, 17% from industry.
Other
Transport
13%
trucks,
airlines,
buses,
trains,
pipelines,
ships
Home Heat
9%
•
US CO2 Emissions
Cars,
SUVs,
Pickups
19%
by Use
Gas & Oil for
Electricity
8%
Commercial
Buildings
6%
Industry .
18% .
Coal
for
Electric
.26%
2012: USDOE - EIA
(US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration)
Concentrate on the BIG stuff: coal for electricity
(with a carbon cap) & personal transportation.
US CO2 Emissions, by Use
Wind Wood
0.98%
4.14%
Natural
Gas
27.58%
Hydro
6.67%
Electricity
Sources
Nuclear
19.37%
Coal
38.96%
Waste
0.49%
Oil
0.66% Geo-thermal
Other
0.41%
1.55
Other Gases
0.30%
Central Solar
0.23%
America’s Low-Carbon Revolution Has Begun
Trillion kWh
4.2
US Electricity Production
3.9
55%
3.6
50%
3.3
45%
3.0
40%
2.7
35%
2.4
US DOE / EIA
2.1
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Billion Metric Tons
4.9
4.2
3.5
2.8
2.1
US DOE / EIA
1985
1990
1995
2000
US CO2 Emissions
6.3
5.6
1980
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
2010
6.3
1.4
US DOE / EIA
30%
US Oil Use
7.0
Billion Barrels
60%
Coal's % of US Electricity
2005
2010
from Fossil Fuels
6.0
5.7
5.4
5.1
4.8
4.5
US DOE / EIA
4.2
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
QUESTIONS
Contact
Dr. Gene Fry
for more details, citations & references.
[email protected]
www.globalwarming-sowhat.com