Transcript ClimatePPT - St. Olaf Pages

II. CAUSES OF SPECIES DECLINES
A. Habitat loss and Degradation
B. Overexploitation
C. Introduced/Invasive/Exotic Species (no real outline
but we read paper and put together Powerpoint on
MN species and emphasize community vs ecosystem
effects)
D. Climate change
D. Climate change
1. CO2 Movie
2. What parts of the earth you expect the greatest number of
species to be affected and why?
What kinds of species would you expect to be affected and
why? (did this on board)
3. Biodiversity and climate change article
a. How can species respond? (space, time and self)
b. Phenotypic Plasticity vs Evolution
If they respond by altering time (timing of events or phenology) or if
they respond by altering self (physiology) this change may occur
through phenotypic plasticity OR evolution (or some of both).
c. Concerns shared in article…
4. Chameides article on people’s acceptance of climate
change (Questions for this article are later in this ppt)
5. Wrap-up (Evolution phenotypic plasticity and Berkeley
Video Clip -I gave you a handout to review on Wed Ap 8)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
1. check out the CO2 movie…
Why does CO2 increase and decrease seasonally?
What parts of the earth you expect the greatest
number of species to be affected and why?
What kinds of species would you expect to be
affected and why?
Use your logic and whatever previous knowledge
you have.
2. What parts of the earth you expect the greatest
number of species to be affected and why?
(EXPOSURE)
What kinds of species would you expect to be
affected and why?(SENSITIVITY)
3. Article! Biodiversity and Climate Change
Climate change could surpass habitat destruction
“However the multiplicity of approaches and
resulting variability in projections makes it
difficult to get a clear picture of the future…”
This article is trying to make sense of the
different ways people have looked at biodiversity
loss!
Many aspects of climate!
All of these many aspects of
climate can affect many
different aspects of the
organisms on the planet!
a. Fig 2!
What does figure 2 show?
Can you make up a theoretical response by a
species of your choosing?
PHYSICALLY MOVING EITHER A SHORT OR LONG DISTANCE*
(SPATIAL)
CHANGE YOUR
PHYSIOLOGY SO
YOU CAN COPE
(SELF)
CHANGE YOUR
LIFE CYCLE TO
MATCH NEW
CLIMATE
(TEMPORAL)
b. Phenotypic Plasticity vs Evolution
Lets imagine you have to change your physiology!
Imagine a plant population that needs to produce
some protein that increases their ability to tolerate a
very hot day. There are two ways this might happen.
• In this population their plant bodies may sense
high temp turn on some gene that starts to
produce a protein. Populations are often flexibleare “ physiologically or phenotypically plastic.”
(Equivalent of exercising in order to get in shape.)
• Or the population you are a part of EVOLVES.
Some individual in the population has a mutation
that perhaps means a different protein is made that
helps them live through high heat.
http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/0
90501_climatechange
Visit a couple of the different points the paper and
chapter make….
c. Concerns…..
1. The paper talks about different models….Here is an
envelope model…
Which scenario are you hoping for and why?
Nevertheless what challenges might this large population
of trees face?
Is there overlap in current and future ranges?
If this species cannot “keep up” (if warming happens
quickly) then this species will be fine because…
Or will it?
•Here have ”northern adapted” subpopulation
“suddenly” at southern edge of range
•So preserving genetic variation is very important
and that means what?====>Keeping population
sizes large and are we doing that?
Concerns…
2. Lose genetic variation due to directional select
Why?
3. Indirect community effects-climate will
modify the web of interactions (species will
disappear because species they depend on will
disappear –pollinators and parasites!)
Other concerns….
4. pH oceans
5. Decoupling of events…
• Arctic hare turning white too early.
• Pollinator emerges before flower it is
supposed to pollinate opens!
• Birds often migrate and time young
emergence from egg to coincide with insect
explosion
6. Threshold events
• pine bark beetle (native) and emerald ash
borer (introduced)..can’t survive overwinter,
can’t survive now can! (No effect and then
boom)
• Mosquito line in Hawaiian honeycreepers
(susceptible species have to live above a
cutoff)
7. Conservation strategies need revision!
• Preserve habitat/species need to think about
their ability to move!
• Need to preserve larger populations to ensure
we have the genetic variation in populations
required for continued evolutionary change
AND to buffer chance extreme weather events.
8. Human assisted migration? Should we do this
and under what circumstances?
Joshua trees no longer being in Josua tree National
Park.
4. For the Bill Chameides article online at the Huffington Post….
1. They found 20% of people did not agree that sea ice had been
declining. First, why did they choose a question about sea ice and not
a question like “is climate warming”?
2. What are the “science illiteracy” and “assimilation bias
explanations” for such a result?
Hamilton’s Research
3. What were the different patterns of acceptance in Democrats and
Republicans and how did they change with education?
Kahan’s Research
4. What did he find and why does he think he found it?
5. What are implications?!!??