Transcript Biotic Consequences of Climate Change

Biotic Consequences of
Climate Change
Impact of Climate Change on
Biodiversity and Ecosystem
Raquibul Amin
Programme Coordinator
IUCN Bangladesh Country Office
PREDICTED IMPACTS ON SPECIES
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Species ranges and phenologies (e.g. early flowering)
will shift
Biotic communities will dissociate in space and time.
Those that are already critically endangered are likely
to be driven to extinction
Migratory species may be at particular risk since they
require separate breeding, wintering and migratory
habitats
Frequency and intensity of pest attack will increase
Productivity of ecosystem will change
SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROGS
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The habitat of Golden Toad in
Costa Rica moved to higher
altitude
Climate change seems to making frogs more
vulnerable to fungal infectionTwo third of 110 species of colorful harlequin frogs
in South and Ccentral America are affected
BUTTERFLY
Non-migratory butterflies in Northern Africa and
Northern Europe shifted home range by 20 to 150
miles
PINON MOUSE
 The mouse moved 1000 to 3000 ft higher elevation
over past century in Southwestern US
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QUIVER TREE
 Started to die off in parts of their traditional range in
Southern Africa
SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTS
Species
range
Future
reserve
Range
limit
Reserve
Potential
range limit
Former
reserve
Former
range limit
After Peters (1992)
Current
PAs will become unsuitable as reserves
SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTS
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Habitat fragmentation will hinder unassisted
migration
Species will behave individualistically, it will not
be possible to maintain biotic communities in
their current state
Weedy species will migrate fastest and capture
vacated territory
Native species can become invasive
Climate
Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes.
Ecosystem state
Time
After US Geological Survey (2005)
Time
Climate
However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abrupt
ecosystem change.
Ecosystem state
Time
After US Geological Survey (2005)
Time
Climate
Gradual climatic change may also trigger unexpected
and abrupt ecosystem change (threshold response)
Ecosystem state
Time
After US Geological Survey (2005)
Time
ADDITIONAL DRIVERS
Others drivers will compound the
climate change impact:
Invasive species
 Land-use change
 Overexploitation (socio-economic driver)
 Pollution
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What will happen in Bangladesh?
IPCC scenario for Bangladesh
Major impacts will be through
Rise in temperature, Increased and
untimely rainfall
 Sea level rise
 Cyclones, Storm surges
 Flood and Drought
 Water logging
 Salinity intrusion
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Managing for the unexpected will entail, at least in part,
managing for ecosystem resistance and resilience
Resistance: ability to resist stresses.
Resilience: ability to recover from stresses.
INTERVENTIONS
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Restore ecosystems and rehabilitate endangered species
Develop national management plans for control and
eradication of invasive alien species
Moratorium on clearing forest
Introduction of salt tolerant species
Long term strategy and planning for water management
in essential
Long term monitoring and capacity building
Appropriate research is needed to determine and
identify an acceptable substitute of plant species
Review of Policies and program
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Integrate biodiversity conservation into the
national development planning and
processes
Promotion of synergies with other
MEAs
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Climate change is intrinsically linked to the well
– being of ecosystems, in terms of livelihood
securities, biodiversity, forestry
In the light of the uncertainties of climate
change, it is crucial to promote synergies
amongst the three Rio Conventions: UNFCCC,
CBD and CCD
THANK YOU