Transcript this - Griffin Groups

IMBCR monitoring to support the
management and conservation of
sagebrush obligate birds
David Pavlacky
Seth Gallagher
David Hanni
Rocky Mountain Bird Observatory
Conserving Birds & Their Habitats
Structured Decision Making
A first step toward adaptive management
PrOACT
•
•
•
•
•
Problem definition
Objectives
Actions
Consequences (models)
Trade-offs and optimization
“A formalization of common sense for decision problems
which are too complex for informal use of common
sense.” R. Keeney, 1982
Conservation problem
Sagebrush ecosystems: destruction, fragmentation
and degradation
• Apparent long-term decline of sagebrush birds
• Several bird species of conservation concern
• Greater Sage-Grouse habitat management
Brewer’s Sparrow
Sage Sparrow
Sage Thrasher
Stakeholder Involvement
Questionnaire to private landowners and resource
professionals
•
•
•
•
•
•
Vegetation responses to management
Wildlife responses to management
Invasive species
Forage production
Federally regulated species
Species of conservation concern
Stakeholder workshops (Spring 2014)
• Feedback from land managers and private
landowners
• Prototype demonstration and training
Conservation Objectives
Multi-species
conservation of
sagebrush birds
Maximize Greater
Sage-grouse
occurrence
Maximize species
richness of
sagebrush birds
Brewer’s Sparrow
occupancy
Sage Sparrow
occupancy
Sage Thrasher
occupancy
Social - Economic Objectives
Sustainable
grazing
Maximize
grazing utility
Minimize
management
cost
Minimize costshare to
landowner
Minimize total
management
cost
Management Actions
Conference report for the NRCS Sage-Grouse Initiative
• Prescribed grazing
– Rest rotation grazing
– Deferred grazing
• Brush management - sagebrush
• Brush management - conifer
• Prescribed grazing & brush management sagebrush
Consequences: Data and Modeling
Integrated Monitoring in Bird
Conservation Regions
Stratified spatially balanced sample design (GRTS)
• Area of inference
• > 1 million km2
• Grid samples
• 2010 = 802
• 2011 = 855
• Point counts
• 2010 = 6,786
• 2011 = 8,484
2011 extent
Multi-scale Occupancy
ψ = Pr (sample grid occupied)
θ = Pr (point occupied |
sample grid occupied)
p = Pr (detection in min interval |
sample grid and point occupied)
1 km
10
0
t1 t2 t3
Pavlacky et al., 2012, J. Wildlife Manage., Vol. 76
Model Selection and Averaging
Sequential parameter-wise model selection
• Detection (p)
– Bird Conservation Region
• Small-scale occupancy (θ)
–
–
–
–
–
Bird Conservation Region
Ground cover
LANDFIRE vegetation type
Shrub cover
Vertical structure
• Large-scale occupancy (ψ)
–
–
–
–
Bird Conservation Region
Elevation
LANDFIRE land cover
Latitude-longitude
Brewer’s Sparrow Distribution
Sage Sparrow Distribution
Sage Thrasher Distribution
Multi-species Landscape Priorities
Multi-species Landscape Priorities
0.8
Probability of occupancy ()
Probability of occupancy ()
Brewer’s Sparrow Habitat
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
g
bi
ge
sa
lls
hi
h
nd
us
Sa
br
ge
b
sa
ru
w
sh
Lo
rt
se
de
lt
h
us
Sa
br
ge
h
sa
us
g
br
ge
sa
t.
Bi
M
Vegetation type
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
Bare ground cover (%)
50
60
0.8
Probability of occupancy ()
Probability of occupancy (
Brewer’s Sparrow Habitat
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Big sagebrush shrub cover (%)
60
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
10
20
30
Woodland tree canopy cover (%)
40
0.8
Probability of occupancy ()
Probability of occupancy ()
Sage Sparrow Habitat
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
rt
se
de
h
b
ru
sh
us
br
ge
sa
h
us
br
ge
sa
g
bi
lt
g
Sa
Bi
t.
M
Vegetation type
0.8
10
20
30
Grass height (cm)
40
50
0.8
Probability of occupancy ()
Probability of occupancy ()
Sage Sparrow Habitat
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Big sagebrush shrub cover (%)
60
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Woodland tree canopy cover (%)
60
State and Transition Models
Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)
• Major Land Resource Areas
– Ecological Site Descriptions
o State and Transition Models
• Ecological dynamics of plant communities
• Box-arrow pathways between states
WY
• Management drivers of state transitions
CO
Major Land Resource Area 34A
Cool Central Desertic Basins and Plateaus
Clayey State and Transition Model
Basin and Wyoming Big Sagebrush (MLRA 34A)
State
Description
Bare
Big sagebrush - bare ground
Bunchgrass Big sagebrush - indian ricegrass
Disturbed
Three tip - rabbitbrush - rhizomatous wheatgrass
Juniper
Big sagebrush - juniper invasion
Reference
Big sagebrush - rhizomatous wheatgrass
Heavy continuous season-long grazing
Grass cover (-)
Forb cover (-)
Bare ground (+)
Big sage cover (+)
Other shrub (-)
Reference
big sagebrush/
wheatgrass/
diverse understory
Bare
big
sagebrush/
bare ground
Grass cover (+)
Forb cover (+)
Bare ground (-)
Big sage cover (-)
Other shrub (+)
Clayey
Big Sagebrush
State Transition
Brush mgmt., reseed,
prescribed grazing
Grass cover (+)
Forb cover (+)
Bare ground (-)
Big sage cover (-)
Other shrub (-)
Model
Disturbed
three tip/
rabbitbrush/
wheatgrass
Non-use, no fire
Grass cover (-)
Forb cover (-)
Bare ground (+)
Big sage cover (+)
Brush mgmt.,
prescribed grazing
Grass cover (+)
Forb cover (+)
Bare ground (-)
Big sage cover (-)
Bunchgrass
big
sagebrush/
Indian
ricegrass
Brush mgmt., cont.
season-long grazing
Decision analysis
Bayesian Belief Network (program GeNIe - SMILE)
• Graphical box-arrow structure for state transition models
• Multiple objectives and management actions
• Uncertainty in management responses
• Can be updated for adaptive management
Bashari et al., 2008, Agr. Syst,, Vol. 99
Nyberg et al., 2006, Can. J. For. Res., Vol. 36
Rumpff et al., 2011, Biol. Conserv., 144
Influence Diagram
Forage production
Current state
State variables
Change in forage
Next state
Change in state variables
Grazing intensity
Management actions
Grazing utility
Management cost
Songbird response
GRSG response
Bayesian Belief Network
Large-Scale Occupancy
Spp richness = 1.4
BRSP
ψ = 0.79
SAGS
ψ = 0.16
SATH
ψ = 0.48
Occupancy
0.00 - 0.10
0.11 - 0.20
0.21 - 0.30
0.31 - 0.40
0.41 - 0.50
0.51 - 0.60
0.61 - 0.70
0.71 - 0.80
0.81 - 0.90
0.91 - 1.00
GRSG polygons
0
1
2
3
4
5 km
Vegetation State Variables
Bird Responses to Management
Forage Production
Toy Example
Disturbed state → big sagebrush/ reference state
• Conservation and social-economic objectives
• Scenario with degraded vegetation state variables
• Hypothesized changes to state variables
Management actions
Utility
Shrub management - sagebrush
Shrub management - conifer
Prescribed grazing
0.58
1.41
Prescribed grazing and shrub management - sage
None
0.72
1.05
Conclusions
• Monitoring for decision making and adaptive
management (Lyons et al., 2008, J. Wildlife Manage., vol. 72)
• Population dependent management decisions
• Evaluate the effectiveness of management actions
• Learning to better achieve management objectives
• Uncertainty in species responses to management
• Multiple species represented by objectives
• Can be updated for adaptive management
• Provide outcome-based metrics for species
recovery
Stakeholder Workshops
• Bird identification and habitat relationships
• Management support for sagebrush birds
• Feedback from landowners and resource professionals
Craig, CO
26 March 2014
Rawlins, WY
27 March 2014
Gillette, WY
22 April 2014
Lewiston, MT
24 April 2014
Laura Quattrini ([email protected])
Power of Partnerships