Transcript Presentation Objectives - Western Interstate Energy Board

Development of
Renewables/Efficiency Scenario
SSG-WI Planning Work Group Meeting
July 31, 2002
John Nielsen
Land and Water Fund of the Rockies
Presentation Objectives
• Provide an overview of Interior West Clean Energy Plan
(IWCEP)
• Open dialogue on how information from IWCEP can assist
SSG-WI efforts to develop renewables/efficiency
transmission planning scenarios.
• Open dialogue on how information developed through
SSG-WI effort can inform and strengthen IWCEP in terms
of
– understanding historic transmission system congestion
– consensus estimates of future load and resource projections under
a BAU scenario
– understanding expansion of clean energy markets
IWCEP Overview
• Objective is to develop a viable long-term clean
electric energy plan for the Interior West
• Relative to a BAU plan clean energy plan will
include significantly increased investments in
RE/EE/DG
• Study will compare costs, benefits, and
environmental and risk implications of clean
energy plan relative to BAU
IWCEP Overview (cont.)
• Transmission system impacts of Clean Energy
Plan will be analyzed
• Areas where RE/EE/DG resources can help alleviate
transmission system constraints
• Areas where transmission system upgrades needed to
bring remote renewables to market
• PROSYM model used to estimate costs, air
emissions and transmission system impacts of
BAU and Clean Energy Plans.
Who’s Involved
• Funding
– $200,000 grant from Hewlett Foundation
– $25,000 grant from DOE to focus on transmission issues
• Project Team
– John Nielsen (LAW Fund)
– David Berry (LAW Fund)
– Ron Lehr (Project Advisor)
Tim Wolf (Synapse Energy Economics)
Steve Bernow (Tellus)
Jayson Attonoff (GIS consulting)
• Advisory Committee
– utility industry reps, independent power producers, renewable
developers, PUC regulators, state energy office officials,
environmental and clean energy advocates, DOE, NREL
Planning Horizon
• 18 years – 2002-2020
• Results presented for years:
–
–
–
–
2002
2008
2014
2020
Geographic Scope
• Seven state Interior West region – AZ, CO,
MT, NM, NV, UT, WY
• PROSYM modeling will include CA and
PNW but we will not develop clean energy
plans for those regions.
• Instead, for CA & PWN will draw on
existing studies/information (e.g. NWEC,
CEC)
Geographic Detail
• PROSYM will analyze the operation of the
electric system within 24 distinct
transmission areas (“trans areas”)
• Inputs to study will be developed at the
trans area level
• Results presented at the trans area, state,
and regional level
Clean Energy Plan Development
• Step 1: Forecast peak load and energy
requirements by trans area
• Step 2: Identify clean energy resource
potential by trans area
• Step 3: Specify clean energy resources to
be developed within each trans area taking
into account resource potential, costs and
transmission system
Renewable Resource Assessment
•
•
•
Starting point is Renewable Energy
Atlas of the West produced by LAW
Fund and NWSEED
Atlas compiles most recent data on
wind, solar, geothermal, biomass
resources into single GIS database
GIS technology allows identification of
resource potential within each
PROSYM trans area
•
•
•
Areas with best renewable resource
potential
Able to exclude lands where
development is inappropriate or
problematic
Able to apply transmission screen to
identify sites near existing transmission
lines and substations likely to be more
economically developable
Identifying Renewable Resource Potential by
Trans Area
• Wind example
• Identify land acres by wind class (Class 4,5,6 &7)
• Screen out excluded lands
– Steep terrain (slope of greater than 20%)
– Water bodies, wetlands,urban areas
– Federally designated environmentally sensitive areas
• All NPS lands
• All Fish and Wildlife lands
• Specific FS lands – Nat. Grasslands, Nat. Monuments, Nat. Recreation Areas,
Nat. Scenic Areas, Wilderness Areas/Study Areas
• Specific BLM lands – Nat. Conservation Areas, Nat. Recreation Areas, Forest
Reserves, Nat. Monuments, Wilderness Areas/Study Areas.
Wind Example (cont.)
• Within seven-state study region, disaggregate state-level
data to trans area level.
• Work with wind developers to identify locations within
trans areas most likely for development based on:
– resource quality
– transmission access/congestion
– any other relevant factors (e.g. siting considerations)
• For PROSYM modeling will compile more detailed
seasonal and day/night profiles for these specific wind
resources – based on Atlas data and other sources (e.g.
NREL, developers)
Other Clean Energy Resources
• Similar process for other renewable resources -biomass, geothermal, solar
• Energy efficiency
– Assessment of Interior West energy efficiency potential
based on current SWEEP study
• Distributed Generation
– Assessment for Interior West being done by Tellus
– Focus on CHP
Timeline
Task















Advisory Committee (AC)established
Memo to the AC describing draft BAU assumptions
Feedback from AC on BAU assumptions
BAU scenario modeling
Assessment of energy efficiency potential.
Assessment of renewable and distributed generation potential.
Memo to AC describing general approach to developing Clean Energy Plan
Feedback from AC on above memo
Clean Energy Plan development & initial modeling results
Memo to AC on initial CEP modeling results and comparisons to BAU
Feedback from AC on above memo.
Any revisions in response to AC
Draft report to AC.
Feedback from the AC on first draft.
Final report
Date
Complete
May 1, 2002
May 24
June 14
July 26
August 1
August 1
August 9
August 23
September 15
September 15
October 1
October 15
November 1
November 15
December 31