Transcript Sweden is special

“Optical Internetworking
and the Internet”
Vint Cerf
MCI WorldCom
Optical Internetworking Forum
June 1999
Life Lesson #101
On the art of
prediction….
Some memorable
examples...
Famous Last Words
"This 'telephone' has too many
shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The
device is inherently of no value to us.”
--Western Union internal memo, 1876
Famous Last Words
 "The
wireless music box has no
imaginable commercial value. Who
would pay for a message sent to
nobody in particular?"
--David Sarnoff's associates in
response to his urgings for investment
in the radio in the 1920s.
Famous Last Words

"640K ought to be enough for
anybody."
-- Bill Gates, 1981
Famous Last Words
 “32
bits should be enough address
space for Internet”
-- Vint Cerf, 1977
What is the Internet?
The largest network
of networks in the world.
Uses TCP/IP protocols and packet
switching .
Runs on any communications substrate.
Some Major Milestones
 1969
- 1985 Basic Packet Net Research
 1974 - Internet design first published
 1983 - first major deployment
 1986 - first router companies
 1989 - WWW; MCI Mail/Internet link
 1990 - ARPANET retired; first comm’l
services (UUNet, PSINet)
 1994 - commercial WWW (Netscape)
 1995 - NSFNet retired, competitive backbone
 1998 - New IANA/ICANN
Internet - Recent Statistics
3 M Level 2 Domains (NW July 1998)
43.2 Million Hosts (NW January 1999)
206/246 IP countries (NW July 1998)
165 Million Users (NUA May 1999)
(830 Million Telephone Terminations)
Users on the Internet - May 1999
CAN/US - 90.65M
 Europe - 40.09M
 Asia/Pac - 26.97M
 Latin Am - 5.29M
 Africa - 1.14M
 Mid-east - 0.88 M
-------------------------- Total - 165M

CAN/US
Europe
Asia/Pac
Latin Am
Africa
Mid East
Internet Hosts (000s) 1989-2006
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
hosts
100000
0
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
Observations
75% of traffic on Internet is WWW
 3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999)
 700 Million web pages (and dark info)
 Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data)
 8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.)
 Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported
 300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2000

Stockholm
Seoul
Amsterdam
Tokyo
Osaka
London
Hong Kong
Brussels
Singapore
Total Transatlantic
Capacity is 3 Gbps
Frankfurt
Zurich
Paris
Milan
Monaco
Total Trans-Pacific
Capacity is 500 Mbps
Sydney
UUNET
GLOBAL
NETWORK Mid 1999
OC-48 Based
US Domestic Backbone
268,794 OC-12 Miles
Intranet/Internet Market
30000
Intranet
Internet
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
12/31/95
12/31/96
Source:Zona Research
12/31/97
12/31/98
12/31/99
Internet and MultiMedia
 Internet
multicast “video”, telephony and
“radio”
 Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct
broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV
 Real-time quality of service support, VOIP
e.g. MCI WorldCom’s “Click ‘n Connect”
 Mutual Reinforcement among media (print,
TV, radio, web, email)
Internet-enabled Devices
 Information
 1997
appliances
- 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC)
 WebTV,
Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony,
Nintendo, Sega games
 Wearable computers (Hardwear?,
Underware?)
vBNS: High Performance Net
for Research and Education
 Very-high-performance
Backbone
Network Service
 sponsored
by the National Science
Foundation
 to
support high-perf. applications at
Supercomputer Centers and interconnect
research Universities (Internet2)
Recent vBNS
SEJ
Seattle
C
Ameritech NAP
Pac Bell NAP
HAY
San Francisco
C
NCAR
National Center for
Atmospheric Research
C A
C
C
PSC
Pittsburgh
C Supercomputing
Center
NCSA
National Center for
Supercomputing
Applications
DNJ C
Denver
C
AST
Atlanta
A
C SDSC
San Diego
Supercomputer Center
C
A
Table
Ascend GRF 400
DS-3
C
Cisco 7507
OC-3C
FORE ASX-1000
OC-12C
HSJ
Houston
C WOR
New York City
Sprint NAP
C
A
C
A
RTO
Los Angeles
C
Network Access Point
DNG
Chicago
C
CHT
Boston
C
NOR
Cleveland
C
C
MFS NAP
PYM
Perryman, MD
WAE
Washington, DC
NG IP Trials/Projects in Progress
 OC-48c
IP Trunk Trial in operation
 early
use of Packet over SONET
 targeted for IP/DWDM architecture
 MPLS
(multiprotocol label switching)
 traffic
engineering strategies
 Scalable
IP QoS (RSVP, MPLS)
 Policy Server Development
 Advanced Traffic Monitoring
NGnet OC48c Trial: vBNS
HAY
CALREN2
North
OC12c/ATM
Juniper
M40
OC12c
ATM
SCM
Fore
ASX-1000
OC12c
ATM
OC3c/ATM
Newbridge
36170
OC12c/ATM
to DNJ
Cisco
12008
OC12c/ATM
OC48c/POS
RTO
Cisco
12008
CALREN = California Research
and Education Network
OC3c/ATM
CALREN2
South
OC12c/ATM
Juniper
M40
OC12c
ATM
Fore
ASX-1000
SDSC
Fore
ASX-1000
OC12c/ATM
OC12c
ATM
Newbridge
36170
OC12c/ATM
to HSJ
High Performance Networking
 DWDM
Backbone - Electro-optical or
all-optical switching (wavelengths now,
packets maybe)
 Elimination of SONET
 Juniper-class (or Cisco 12000, Avici,
Lucent, …) IP switches, MPLS traffic
engineering
 Edge-derived QOS
Technology Targets
 Multi-path,
class of service routing at
level 3 (note ATM PVC usage today) for
traffic management
 Inter-network protocol for service
provisioning, accounting/reconciliation,
other service parameters (the analog of
X.75 in X.25 or NNI in Frame Relay)
 SIP extensions for telephony + general
process interaction
Technology Targets (2)
Automatic configuration (DHCP+)
 Key Certificate management systems (with
global potential)
 Directory services of all kinds
 Impact of super scale (billions of devices on
the Internet)
 IPv6 address space management
 IPv4/IPv6 interworking

High Performance Last Hop
 Digital
Subscriber Loops
 Cable Modems
 Fixed Radio links (blimps?, ground link)
 IR or Radio LANs
 Mobile Radio is low bandwidth - maybe
100 Kb/s (but new CDMA is 2Mb/s).
Next Generation Networks

Switched, broadband digital networks
packet-based
(ATM, IP)
Fewer layers; switched optical core
 Managed flows at edges, diff serv core
 MPLS for traffic engineering, VPNs?
 Integrated wireless (wireless LAN, DECT,
GSM, CDMA ng), wired (xDSL), satellite,
cable

Some of our Challenges
High speed, low cost local access
 Scaling beyond telephony, television and radio
 (Inter-provider) reliability commensurate with
dependency on Internet
 Capacity management under high dynamic
range
 Security and authenticity frameworks
 Understanding/managing complexity

Bits and Atoms
 Negroponte:
transforming our society
from atom-based to bit-based
 The bit people are telling jokes about
atoms: “Lost electron story”
eCommerce Intensifies
 Cisco
Systems - $10B/year
 $20M/day
Web sales
 80% of sales via Web; $550M cost saving
 Dell
Computer -$18.2B/year
 $14M/day
 Intel
Web sales; 35% of total
- $26B/year
 $1B
booked within 15 days of Web start
Internet Transactions
($Billions)
Goods and services
traded between
companies from $8
billion this year to
$327 billion in 2002
300
250
$Billions

350
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Forrester Research
9 9 9 0 0 0
7 8 9 0 1 2
iCommerce in 2003
 Commerce
sales will be between $1.8
trillion and $3.2 trillion in 2003.
 Estimates include business-to-business
and business-to-consumer sales and
EDI orders placed on the Internet, but
exclude the value of financial
transactions.
New eCommerce Opportunities
 Intermediation/outsourcing
of online
services (brokering, clearing, insuring,
business functions such as billing,
credit, collection, human resources)
 Distance learning, certificate programs
 Outsourcing of all kinds
 Web hosting, mirroring, content mgmt
Policy Issues
 Cryptography
and export
 Trademarks and Copyright
 Regulatory Framework
 Liability and Dispute Resolution
 Convergence (TV, Radio, Telephony)
 Taxation
 Censorship/Voluntary Filtering
 Digital Signatures/Certificate issuance
..
Future look
Cerf’s Inversion
Today: you go through a
circuit switch to get to a packet switch.
Tomorrow: you’ll go through a
packet switch to get to a circuit switch.
Space: the final frontier
Our 25 year mission: to go where
no network has gone before!
Interplanetary Internet Status
 Part
of the Mars Mission Plan
 Possible Earth/Moon mission 2001
 Low Mars Orbit and Areosynchronous
satellites by 2008
 Mars Outposts by 2010
 Possible Orbiting manned mission 2018
 Possible Manned Mars station 2030??
Internet is for Everyone...
Even Martians
Cerf’s Slides are found at:
www.wcom.com/cerfsup