Transcript MegaFlops MicroWonders - Archive

Mega-Flops & Micro-Wonders
Mobilty & Wireless
Peter Cochrane
www.ca-global.org
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
It wasn’t always this way…
Wireless communication
The silicon revolution!
FLOPS
10
10 15
10 13
10 12
17
Teraflop
CM-5
CM-2
11
10
10 10
10 9
8
10
10 7
10 6
10 5
10 4
10 3
10 2
10
1
0.1
100,000
Teraflop
desktop
Cray Y-MP
Stretch
LARC
IBM 704
ENIAC
Relays
Vacuum tubes
1960
Cray C-90
Multiprocessors
Vector
Scalar
UNIVAC
1950
Cray -2
CDC
1604
1000x
1940
CDC 6600
ILLIAC IV
Delta
Massively
parallel
Cray X-MP
Cray-1
CDC 7600
Human Brain
Transistors
Micro-processors
Integrated circuits
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Every decade a new, lower cost class of
computers emerge defined by:
log (people per computer)
• Platform
• Interface to humans & the world
• Networking and/or interconnect structure
Electronic/electro
-mechanical
Mainframe
Minicomputer
Workstation
PC
Laptop
PDA
Explants & Implants in
everything & everyone?
Based on a slide by David Culler UC/Berkeley
year
Moore’s Wall
Log Scale
3D ICs
Molecular
Quantum
Genetic
Biological
Optical
Computing
ICn
IC5
IC4
IC3
New
IC2
Sensors
Networks
Software
Lifeforms
Intelligences
IC1
Transistor
Thermionic
Tube
1915 46
59
2010
2025
Disruptive forces
Digitization of everything…… and exponential growth
Everything/one is getting connected…… and mobile
Devices are getting smaller, smarter…… and cheaper
Customer demand… and an explosion of broadband
Centralized networks die?
Networks get dumber as the
periphery is getting smarter.
Almost everything can be done
better at the periphery rather
than in the core!
The dream….…seamless access!
Cameras - VOIP - Sensors - Positioning
Personal
Space
3m
PAN
Bluetooth
UWB
RFID
Campus, Office,
Airport, Home
30m
LAN
WLAN 802.11X
WiFi
City
Community
3km
MAN
WMAN
WiMAX
Beam Forming
Cellular/Satellites
International
Ubiquitous
WAN
HSDPA
WCDMA
UMTS
WiFi is never more than 1 - 4 blocks away!
100%
>95%
>60%
35% Free sites
60% Low cost
5% Rip off hotels
Everyday we interact with more and more devices…
We are now the minority communicators!
75
50
25
% Network Traffic
100
Machines
Mankind
6Bn
60Bn
Machines
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2010
Mobile networks have many....
... strange attractors!
And so do fixed networks…!
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Net visitors come in packs….
…a connected world is chaotic!
200
150
Active
100
Site
Visitors
50
0
00.00
06.00
12.00
Hour of the Day
18.00
24.00
Network peak to mean(average) traffic
ratio….
PSTN ~ 4:1
Mobile ~ 50:1
Internet ~ 500:1 ….can peak >1000:1
This is a non-trivial problem and we are still learning
how to design/cope with such networks…
Networks
Networks fueled
fueledby
bycorrelated/chaotic
random behavior have
behavior
the
Cyberspace
is of
connected
by
a…
have
property
the property
of smoothing
summing
out thethe
peaks
peaks
- they
- andtend
tend
…hierarchy
ofand
computers!
to to
have
have
voltage
power
addition
additionqualities
qualities
and
do
obey
notthe
obey
The
Central
Central
Limit
Limit
Theorem
Theorem
Cell
Continent
Body
Home
Region
Campus
Car
Building
World
Fractal Cyberspace: a net of nets, fixed
and mobile platforms..
When we design networks and systems we
have to differentiate traffic & services…
Real time
Human conferencing
Non - real time
Data transfer
Business critical
Bank/stock market transaction
Life critical
On-line surgery
Premium
Games & Entertainment
Raw IP technology is not ideally suited to real time…
Number Tx
of devices
MW
100%
The need for regulation and control
Tns
Sensors
RFID
Bns
~Ms0%
Mobiles
Distance
& Power
WiFi/Max
100ks
ks
mW
The spectrum myth…
…it is in short supply!
Attenuation
dB/km
Short range only due
to high path loss
100
O2 H 2O
10
FM
Radio
1
0.1
Ionosphere
TV
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Mobile
Phones
Free
O2
Opportunity
space
space
H2O optics
WiFi
300GHz
0.01
10MHz
100MHz
1GHz
10GHz
30GHz of busy spectrum
100GHz
270GHz unused
Sheer computing power (just about) solved
all the old wireless problems…
•
•
•
•
Signal processing allows spread spectrum modes
Auto power, channel and mode control made it all black boxes
Spatial processing mitigates self/others interference
Smart adaptation negates the need for regulation, band structures, frequency
allocations etc??
2.5/3G
HiFi
Surround Sound
mobile
FreeView
SatTV
DVD
~60GHz
WiFi
Entertainment & IT connected &
configured using 60GHz.
Everything inter-works & talks
with ease.
Wires have mostly gone!
DSL
FTTH
Broadband Server + back up store
+ CD & DVD + movie store
+ Integral 60GHz + WiFi
+ BlueTooth + 2.5 + 3.0G
mobile
Hub/
Switch
Server
A cloud of
connectivity
Router
Old wires and boxes view
New access cloud perception
RFID will revolutionize every
aspect of the supply chain - from
raw materials to manufacture,
logistics, supply & support.
In the field of healthcare RFID
will save lives, increase efficiency
and reduce costs.
A retail revolution - RFID…
…&WiFi in every EPOS
We can now deliver an infinity of
bandwidth to almost any location
…..all the old limiters have
gone!
So, we face some challenging network…
…feature/phenomena/problems…
…and in the future!
*Chaos
*Clustering
*Non-linear behaviour/society
*The sociology of things and people
Wireless density will accelerate in
the future even faster…
BUT
“More wireless means more fiber”
USA amateurs are now venturing into 3D maps
with panoramic camera additions of specific
locations + vidcam feeds and data from sensors
BIG predictions…
Positioning systems >> Communications
SensorNets >> All Nets
PodCasting >> TV & Radio
HomeCare >> Hospital Care
Home Creativity >> Office Creativity
Robots >> People
Machine Decisions >> People Decisions
We will become a part of the network….
BIG predictions…
Fibre networks will be more analogue than digital
There will be no convergence, only continued
divergence
Wireless connections >> Wired connections
A world of opportunity & risk….
Thank you,
www.cochrane.org.uk
www.ca-global.org
www.conceptlabs.net
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s