Transcript Presentation Professor Emeritus Seamus Caulfield

Population Projections to 2031
Ballaghaderreen
Crusade for Survival
•
• 1991
704
2011
least likely
551
Most practical
If nothing done
590
550
543
508
475
432
CSO Regional Population Projections
• ‘Greater Dublin Area the main winner if past
patterns of internal migration return’.
• ‘In 2011 Dublin accounted for 27.6% of the
total population. This compares with just over
25% fifty years earlier’.
• M1 Net Migration to return to + 30,000
• M2 Net Migration to return to + 5,000
• M3 Net Migration to ease to - 5,000
• F1 Fertility to remain as is at 2.1.
• F2 Fertility to drop to 1.8
National Projections to 2031
•
•
•
•
•
•
• 4,575
M1F1
M1F2
M2F1
M2F2
M3F1
M3F2
5,637
5,522
5,203
5,187 X
4,992
4,894 X
Regional Projections
• M2F2
•
•
Recent (2011)
Traditional (1981-1996)
Modified ( Dublin + 4000)
• M3F2
•
•
Recent
Traditional
Modified
Looking to the Future
• Leitrim
• Ardmoy
• Ballycastle