Transcript Slide 1

Will LTE be the Death of the
Landline
ACE School - 2012
Ft. Worth, Texas
May 7, 2006
By Donn Swedenburg
[email protected]
RVW, Inc.
(402)564-2876
Introduction
• Rapidly changing technology continues to
impact our industry.
• The rapid emergence of Long Term
Evolution (LTE) 4G represents a
formidable technology & one more
technology “game changer”.
• Technology advancement has always
altered the way people do things.
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Presentation Goals
• Briefly examine industry statistics &
trends.
• Illustrate the rapid emergence of LTE.
• Identify current barriers to LTE
deployment.
• Conclude with a summary of the issues
and opportunities.
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By the numbers
• Total landlines peaked in 2000.
– Approximately 188 million lines in 2000.
– Since then, landlines have decreased 1 – 2%
yearly, the 2008 total landline count was
approximately 123 million lines.
– From 2007 to 2009, the percentage of
households with landline service only has
declined from 23.8% to 14.9%.
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By the numbers
• Percentage of “wireless only” households
has increased from 13.6% to 32% from
2007 to 2011.
• These numbers driven by wireless
consumer preferences for convenience &
mobility and the popularity of certain
handset.
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Why LTE?
• The 3GPP LTE standards body moved the
fastest.
– Established profiles in many frequencies
including 700 MHz.
– LTE supports much higher data rates than 3G
technologies.
– The future is about broadband data.
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Industry LTE Acceptance
•
•
In 2010, 3 of 10 wireless companies
polled utilized LTE technology.
In 2011, it reversed - 7 of 10 wireless
companies polled utilized LTE
technology in their networks.
– Today, data is king & speed is the driver.
– 700 MHz spectrum auctioned in 2002 &
2009 had a compelling technology to utilize
it.
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Industry LTE Acceptance
• LTE’s all IP design facilitates higher speed
data rates
– It is not unusual for speed tests of lightly
loaded 4G LTE to run at 10 – 15 Mbps
downstream and 2 - 5 Mbps upstream.
– The latency target for LTE is 25 ms., but for
existing network configurations, 75 - 100 ms.
Is not unusual today
– Voice services still operating on the 3G
network.
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Industry LTE Acceptance
• Rapid industry LTE acceptance energized
the CPE manufacturing community.
– Multiple devices already available including
PC dongles, MiFi type devices, fixed indoor
and outdoor CPE.
– Multiple vendors like BandRich and Ericsson
developing devices for various Band Classes.
– The VoLTE (Voice over LTE) standard and
hardware not finalized yet, but on the way.
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The Weak Links
• Wireless technology requires spectrum.
Wireless broadband requires lots of it.
– The amount of spectrum available for
deployment is still somewhat limited.
– The FCC has promised more spectrum for
auction, but nothing is scheduled.
– Wireless broadband technology requires
broadband backhaul networks.
– Proportions of various applications will affect
spectrum required and backhaul capcity.
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Conclusions
• Erosion of voice landlines will continue.
– The voice network will not disappear, but will
undoubtedly evolve.
• LTE will become a major force in
delivering telecommunications services
– Given enough spectrum and backhaul
capacity, expect the wireless providers to
begin competing in the fixed broadband
market.
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Conclusions
• The emergence of LTE as the technology
of choice in wireless can also be a
revenue opportunity.
– If you have spectrum, it could provide a
ground floor opportunity to enter the wireless
market for either high mobility or fixed
wireless services.
– National carriers will undoubtedly need your
networks to provide backhaul.
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• References
– PwC Communications, Changes & trends in
the North American wireless industry, March,
2012.
– FCC Wireline Competition Service Bureau,
Trends in Telephone Service, 2010.
– CNN Money, Are landlines doomed?, April 10,
2012.
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