Transcript Slide 1

Future Wireless Network Architecture
Driven by Broadband Data Traffic
MIT CIPS Workshop
October 28, 2009
Berge Ayvazian, Senior Advisor, Yankee Group
Principal Consultant, Wireless 20/20
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Introduction to Wireless 20/20
 Consulting group focused on the emerging broadband wireless
market – 3G, LTE, Wi-Fi, WiMAX
 Expertise in Broadband technology, market and modeling
 Provide support to the “Broadband Wireless Ecosystem”
 Component Vendors, Equipment Vendors, Service Providers, Regulators

Developed over 30 Wireless Business Cases around the world
 North America, South America, China, Europe, Africa, Middle East
 Developed comprehensive tools to model broadband wireless
networks
 What is the impact on ROI?
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Mobile Industry Trends
Evolution to Data-centric Mobile Networks
Data is growing faster than voice on today’s 2G and 3G networks
Need for scalable backhaul as all-IP 4G networks develop
Emergence of Smartphone Applications
Driven by mobile email, SMS/MMS, ringtones and content
Hosted apps specific for mobile smartphone devices
Growth of Mobile Internet Traffic
Transition from mobile email/SMS to internet-based multimedia
content and information exchange: YouTube and social networking
Mobile access to cloud computing services, eg. Salesforce.com
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Mobile Device and Application Trends
Mobile Broadband Smartphone Handsets, Notebooks and
Netbooks and DataCards Drive Data Traffic Growth
3G Smartphones
Consumer
Electronics
MIDs
Netbooks
Laptops/
DataCards
Emergence of Smartphone Applications and Widgets
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Global Mobile Data Forecast
Global mobile traffic will increase 66X between 2008-13
Broadband will drive 80% of mobile traffic, and exceed two exabytes
per month
Global mobile data traffic reached one exabyte/month in half the time it
took fixed data traffic to do so
High-end 3G smartphone generates more data traffic than 30
basic-feature 2G cell phones
Laptop Aircard or Netbook generates more data traffic than
450 basic-feature cell phones
Almost 64% of world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013
including streaming, downloading and interactive video
communications
Mobile Data/Video Challenge - Scalable Core and Backhaul
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Mobile Data Traffic Tsunami
Source:
Cisco Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
Informa Telecoms and Media, 2009
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Massive Data Traffic Growth Forecast
Tier 1 US Mobile Service Providers
Data ARPU
Data ARPU
Year
Source:
Yankee Group, 2009
Mobile Broadband Data Traffic Growth Drives Backhaul Requirements
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US Mobile Operator Network Evolution
Mobile Network Operator
Current 3G Network
Next 3G Data Network
4G Deployment Date
AT&T
GSM Voice
HSDPA - Data
HSPA (R6) in 2009
Maximum 7.2 Mbps
Ave. 700-1,700 Kbps
LTE trials in 2010
Deployment begins in 2011
Verizon Wireless
CDMA Voice
EV-DO Rev A - Data
LTE
.
LTE Trials by year-end 2009
LTE Deployment begins 2010
for 30 commercial markets
nationwide build-out late 2013
or early 2014.
Sprint
CDMA Voice
EV-DO Rev A - Data
Mobile WiMAX
802.16e
Clearwire Network Build out in
selected markets 2009-2010
T-Mobile USA
GSM Voice
HSDPA - Data
HSPA (R6) in 2010
Maximum 7.2 Mbps
Average 700 Kbps – 1 Mbps
HSPA+ in 2010
No Announced Date for LTE
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Mobile Internet and 4G Network Transformation
Will Impacts the Entire Mobile Ecosystem
Devices
Access/Backhaul
Edge/Core
Services/Apps
Voice-centric
Narrowband
Connectivity
Centric
Vertical
Integration
Media Internet
Centric
Broadband
Internet
Centric
Horizontal
and Vertical
Integration
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Today’s Mobile Data Network Architecture
Not Built for Mobile Data Applications
• AT&T’s Edge and 3G network performance has suffered trying to support
millions of iPhones
• Netbooks and datacards are the next challenge
• RAN being upgraded to HSPA+ and ultimately LTE
• Cost for Existing Backhaul running into $100Ms
• Current backhaul is being upgraded to Fiber/Ethernet
• AT&T’s network is a harbinger for other mobile providers
• Verizon Wireless
• Sprint/Clearwire
• T-Mobile
• Vodafone
• Orange
• Telefonica/O2
• None of them are Ready for 4G
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4G Operator Deployment Strategies Driven
by Legacy Position and Competitive Market
4G Plans of Major MNOs
• MNOs making huge investment
on RAN and Backhaul for Mobile
Broadband
• AT&T and Vodafone 3G
networks being upgraded to
HSPA in 2009, postponing LTE
into 2012
• Verizon Wireless is LTE first
mover with trials in 2009 and
commercial deployment in 2010
• Sprint using Clearwire mobile
WiMAX network for 4G starting
in 2009
• Vodafone deploying HSPA in
2009 and plans LTE in 2012
• KDDI announced LTE while
UQ Communications 4G mobile
WiMAX network in late 2009
• Korea Telecom using mobile
WiMAX network for 4G while
testing LTE
• NTT DoCoMo is currently testing
LTE and deploying EPC and IMS
to offer commercial Super 3G
services beginning in 2010
• Other 4G first movers include
Telstra Australia, TeliaSonera
and Telenor
NTT
docomo
Super 3G/LTE
GSM/HSDPA
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LTE
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Next Generation Radio Technologies are Coming
Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
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4G Service Providers Need
Spectrum
Substantial spectrum to deliver true mobile broadband experience
Radio Network
Open, standards based base stations, radio access network to deliver
multi-megabit speeds to the end user.
Backhaul
High Capacity Ethernet links to connect the radio network to the
packet core, the Internet and other networks.
Core Network
Devices
Open, Flat all-IP packet core network, low cost, simple, low latency,
with intelligence and analytics montize rich media applications.
Wide selection of devices, including low cost, and embedded to
reduce barriers to entry and make customer acquisition affordable.
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4G is More than a Radio Access Network
BTS
NodeB
GERAN
UTRAN
SGSN/
MME
AAA/
HSS
3G
eNodeB
WiFi /
Femto /
WiMAX
Internet
Interne
t
LTE
SGW
PGW/
GGSN
E-UTRAN
Overlaid
Networks
ePDG
IMS
Operator
Interne
IP
Service
Domain
t
Evolved Packet Core (EPC) drives all-IP for capital and operational
efficiencies and to accelerate service innovation
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Radio Network Upgrades Alone
Cannot Address Traffic Demands
Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
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4G is Much More than a
Radio Access Network
Efficiencies of Ethernet in the backhaul
Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
Massive investments needed to overcome backhaul choking-point
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Mobile Backhaul Trends
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Path to 4G heralds hyper-convergence of communications, Internet,
media, mobility and machine
New players are poised to capitalize on 4G and the Anywhere Network
Service providers are grappling with transformation strategies for 4G
Current market strategies are driven by competition and are not
addressing market demand
Ecosystems evolving to empower the end users and disrupt status quo
Within next five years, mobile network operators have to:
Transition from TDM to packet based backhaul
Transition to fiber backhaul and microwave
Simplify backhaul connectivity with Ethernet
Unify the voice and data networks mobile networks, particularly for
wireline backhaul
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3G and 4G Mobile Network
Backhaul Challenge
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Over $24 billion was spent on mobile backhaul services globally in 2008
US mobile network operators spent $6.2 billion on backhaul in 2008 for
228,000 cell sites supporting an average of 10 Mbps or less of capacity
In 2012, there will be more than 300,000 cell sites in the U.S., each
supporting on average 100 Mbps.
If MNOs keep throwing T1s at the problem, this would result in a
backhaul bill of $82 billion. The monthly average cost per site would be
about $23,000 compared to today’s average of $2,100.
MNOs need to plan RAN and backhaul together – preplanned fiber hub
sites enable broad microwave coverage and lowers lifecycle costs
4G requires more fiber and microwave in the backhaul network to
support high bandwidth requirements
Metro Ethernet and fiber hubbing enables node aggregation
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100 Mbps Ethernet Backhaul Needed to
Support HSPA+ and WiMAX, More for LTE
100 Mbps Backhaul
in two years
10 Mbps
Backhaul in 2008
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WiROI Model for LTE Backhaul
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Future Wireless Network Architecture
Conclusion
Mobile Internet presents tremendous opportunities for
those who transform to address its demands
Service providers must embrace the Mobile Internet and
4G or perish
A holistic approach towards technology evolution is
critical in the run up to 4G
Service providers must drive transformation into their
company culture and with employee incentives to change
Focus on Backhaul and Evolved Packet Core in the
Transition to 4G to Optimize the Mobile Internet User
Experience
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Questions?
www.wireless2020.net
Berge Ayvazian
617 504-6141
[email protected]
Roberta Wiggins
617 504-6141
[email protected]
04/01/09
10/28/09
Randall Schwartz
415 307-4259
[email protected]
Haig Sarkissian
408 884-1561
[email protected]
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