Transcript Market and Industry Perspectives on DLNA

Market and Industry
Perspectives on DLNA
Jon Peddie
Jon Peddie Research
[email protected]
Jon Peddie Research
DLNA Promotes Seamless Interoperability
Between CE and PC Devices in the Home
What is the Market Opportunity
for DLNA?
It’s a part of a part of a part:
• First there has to be a content delivery
system (cable, satellite, OTA, CDs, DVDs, MP3s, etc.)
• To share those sources, there has to be a
network in the home.
• Then there has to be a gateway hub or
server (a caching proxy.)
• And there has to be client devices.
What’s the Market
Potential?
What’s the
market
Potential?
Sources - Global Digital
365 Million DTV Households 2010
• Cable the dominant platform by 2010
• Broadband TV 16.8 m by 2010(Informa Telecoms & Media)
413 million DSL subscribers (In-Stat)
• Digital terrestrial TV - 38 million by 2010
• Satellite TV – 100 m subscribers by 2008
• Digital radio – 22 million by 2009
What’s the
market
Potential?
Sources – Other than TV
• Online music market to increase sevenfold
by 2010
– music downloads and subscription revenues
to top CD sales on the Web next year
– Europeans will download five times more
music to their mobile phones by 2010
• Digital mages captured, shared, and
received will grow 24% from 2004 to 2009
• 111 million DSCs global demand in 2008
Electrons just want to be free...
There’s a natural affinity for digital
devices to be connected
(Kathleen Maher, 2003)
What’s the
market
Potential?
Networks
• 74 million US homes have cable, 80% of
them have 2+ STBs = 56 million coax home
network systems in the US
• Europe has nearly twice the number of TV
households as North America (Informa Media Group)
• 238 million TV households in Europe,
compared with 126 million in North America
by 2010
• The Asia-Pacific market contains 60% of
the world's TV households.
What’s the
market
Potential?
Networks
There’s going to plenty of
sources
…and lots of home networks to
distribute the media
But it won’t be easy to get
them all connected
…lots of obstacles and gotchas
What are the obstacles?
What are
the
obstacles?
UPnP is only a start
For connectivity, UPnP DLNA devices must
incorporate:
• 802.3i (10BaseT Ethernet) or
• 802.3u (100BaseT Fast Ethernet), or
• one of the Wi-Fi-certified 802.11 wireless
standards (802.11a, b or g),
• and/or a combination of these physicallayer interfaces.
What are
the
obstacles?
802.11 No Panacea
Blocked by
• Space and water heaters
• Refrigerators and ovens
• Bathroom fixtures and plumbing
• Aluminum 2x4 studs
• Foil-backed installation
• And even some windows
However, WiFi is pretty good even for video – so DRM and
stream support and interoperability are the real issues
What are
the
obstacles?
Software Links
• 99% of non-computer home gadgets run
Wind River, Linux, or proprietary CE
control systems, and patching them to
Microsoft is tough
• Linux has its own set of stacks
• Korea and China considering their own
This ain’t no slam dunk
What are
the
obstacles?
DLNA who?
Lost in the logos, or no show?
Maybe its still early days, but no joy this holiday with
no DLNA logo show
What are
the
obstacles?
DLNA – huh?
• Couldn’t find logo’ed products from the
promoters or members at large
– Go to the Certified page, and click on the
products - then look at an ad
• Found one – Mediabolic’s DigiOn
Before you can win the consumers, you
better get the members on board
What are
the
obstacles?
Members?
• And who are those members?
• There a lot listed, and a conspicuous absence of
some important companies
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ADS
Apple
Belkin
Cisco
Creative Labs
Logitech
Monsoon
Netgear
Network Magic
Novell
Pluto
SlingBox?
What are
the
obstacles?
Not the only game in town
• What about some of the other solutions?
How does:
– MoCA
– NEMO
– Mobile IPv6
– HomePNA
– Home Plug
– and AAA fit in?
NEMO / Mobile IPv6 are at different levels of
the OSI layer and not a competing solution
Layer 1 and max 3 – will support
UPnP as they are all “Ethernet
Authentication Authorization Accounting – and there’s
another A: Auditing plus a C Charging; all is somewhat
related to MobileIP V6 and NEMO
DLNA has a “special liaison” group.
Don’t tell me – tell the world
What are
the
obstacles?
DLNA is Part of the
Solution
• DLNA is mainly residing in the levels 3 and 4 (IP / TCP
and UDP) plus some level 5 and 6 work in conjunction
with XML and SOAP to implement eventing and control.
• UPnP is so open and flexible that you can have devices
that are compliant with UPnP spec
– but can't work together because their set of supported protocols
or content formats don't overlap.
• DLNA tries to rein this is a bit and mandate common
protocols & formats to guarantee baseline compatibility.
• It also brings other technologies into the mix that are
required for a system solution.
What are
the
obstacles?
Who Bolts it Together?
• Is Joe six-pack or my aunt supposed to build the
home network?
– How about getting
• CEDIA
• NASBA
• NSCA
• PARA,
and other system installers and integrators on board?
– DLNA needs to exhibit at Integrated Systems Europe
2007, Europe’s AV and Electronic Systems Integration
showcase
– And what about fringe thinks like MythTV?
Summary
• DLNA was founded 3 years ago
• Global home networking will grow from 35 million
homes in 2004 to over 160 million by 2010.
• The number of network-capable devices will
increase 108 million today to one billion Internet
and LAN-friendly gadgets in 2010
• Time is not on your side – and after 3 years DLNA
logos on real products are very hard to find.
Summary
•
DLNA is the best shot at pulling this maze
together
•
There are some great member companies
•
– some important ones are missing
•
Word is not getting out to the users
•
Installation is critical
•
You’ve got a good start, now kick it up a notch
Jon Peddie Research
Thank you
[email protected]
About the rollout of IPTVIt is finally gaining critical mass and raising a slew of issues for service
providers.
• WAN interfaces are in a flux - FTTP and FTTH are the obvious
choices, but ADSL2+ and VDSL are also IPTV-capable
• LAN choices are even more complex. A typical US household has
3.5 TVs and these are not wired with Ethernet. WiFi is simply not
capable of reliably handling multiple HDTV streams. Technologies
such as MoCA and HomePlug are being evaluated along with HPNA
and 802.11n.
• If IPTV merely copies the multi-channel service offered by cable and
satellite, it will become a price war leaving room for very little profit
and potential to recover the cost of fiber and CPE deployment. How
do service providers layer on value added services (both data and
video) to make their pipe different from the competition?
• In a world where every house is capable of 20-30 (or more) Mbps
bandwidth, is there a role for in-home storage? If so, will this be a
PC? Is there an opportunity for service providers to create strategic
value in this storage?