Transcript Document

The Next Generation era and
“The Changes we need”
TCT & TTA Seminar :
NGN Broadband Development
Bangkok, 29 January 2009
By Surapon Kiattiyossakun
True Corp.
29 Jan.09
Question
“Why do we need to go NGN ?”
Behind the scene
“How difficult it is without the NGN ?”
Behind the scene
“How difficult it is without the NGN ?”
Behind the scene
“How difficult it is without the NGN ?”
See
“How good it is with NGN ?”
See
“How good it is with NGN ?”
Prediction
“Traffic on world’s networks will increase
46% annually from 2007 to 2012. As a
result, there will be an annual bandwidth
demand of approx. 522 exabytes, or more
than half a zettabyte !”
1
2
Telecommunications &
the Multi-Storeys Model
The
st
1
Storey
Conventional Telco Model - 10 years ago
Voice Communication
has dominated telecommunication
since 1877 until Now .
International Gateways
Mobile
Fix Line
ITU
E.164
Old Eco-System : Telecom Service
Int’l
Gateway
ISP
Telecom
Service Provider
Consumer
Business
Content
Provider
Network
Suppliers
Government
Telecom Market has changed
World’s Mainlines vs Mobile Sub.
1,773
1,800
1,593
Main Lines/Mobile Subscribers (millions)
1,600
1,388
1,400
1,146
1,200
983
1,000
800
692
743
793
844
1,092
730
1,132
1,170
1,205
936
478
400
200
907
646
600
1,045
308
55
86
136
Main Telephone Lines
Mobile Subscribers
206
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003e
2004f
2005f
Mobile has surpassed Fixline since 2002
How should we adapt ?
The
nd
2
Storey
Internet has kicked off rapid growth in
Data Communication – the IP protocol
Internet
Search
Web 1.0
e-Commerce
Email
Web 2.0
PtP
Broadband
Mobile
Fix Line
Internet Protocol
DNS
Broadband
Access
VoIP Boom … the start of NGN Model
Service Provider ‘A’
SIP-I
Soft-SW
AG
MG
MG
Service Provider ‘B’
SBC
Internet
Soft-SW
SBC
MG
MG
AG
Internet
User
IP
PABX
Legacy
PSTN/Mobile
Legacy
PSTN/Mobile
IP
PABX
New Business comes ‘Over The Top’
Since 1993 (Mosaic), millions of
data & applications. are served
to the Global Communities over Internet.
Search
Web 1.0
e-Commerce
Email
Web 2.0
PtP
Internet
Servers
Broadband
Internet Backbone
Mobile
Fix Line
Competition on
Innovative
&TTM
Access
Competition on
Coverage
Big Change come with the Internet
How can we exploit out of it ?
Internet Growth (million users)
1,100 M
at end of 2006
Internet users by continent
1,319 M
at end of 2007
Internet Users by country (Q1/2008)
US = 218 M
China = 210 M
Japan = 94 M
Most popular language on Internet
Estimated 1,463 M users in Q2/2008
Demand for Internet Bandwidth
The New York Times
report in Mar.08
Global Internet
traffic could
quadruple by 2011.
Voice Trend : Changes in Usage
% of Total Mobile Voice Minutes, Europe
100
90
Others
(eg. Click-to-Call, Social Networking,
Game with voice)
80
70
Private Voice Apps & Handsets
(eg. Skype, Google)
60
50
Enhanced Carrier Voice
(Presence, Wideband Audio)
40
30
Traditional Telephony
20
(Circuit or IP Equivalent)
10
2007
Source :
2012
2017
Fragmentation of the ‘Service Transport’
Proportion of end-user value that flow to each
major service/content transport system
Today
%
2012
%
(2007)
%
80
80
80
70
70
70
60
60
60
50
50
50
40
40
40
30
30
30
20
20
20
10
10
10
PSTN&
MSC
Broadband
Internet
Other
PSTN & SMSC
Source :
PSTN&
MSC
NGN
Broadband
Internet
2017
Other
Broadband Internet
PSTN&
MSC
Broadband
Internet
Others
Other
(incl. internet app.)
Now Eco-System : Digital Delivery & Community
Digital Contents
e-Commerce & Logistics
Email, Messaging & Search
Person of the year 2006
Web 2.0
Geography Positioning
Online
Community
(Times New Year 2007)
You !
Peer-to-Peer
-
Social Network
Blogs
Wikipedia
Virtual Reality
Broadband Access
By Telcos
New Era of the Industry, Convergence to come
Brokers may be required to deliver SLA to
various Service Providers from various
Network Providers in each country.
Convergence has come cross industries
How we’ll prepare for new environment ?
Industry Convergence
End User
Devices
Services
Consumers
Households
Youth
Professional
Seniors
etc
Business
SME
Corporate
Homes
Automobiles
Fixed phone
Mobile phone
Desktop PC
Laptop
PDA
Smartphone
Personal GW
Camera
MP3 player
Games console
Voice
Email
IM
SMS/Text
MMS
Games
Video conf
Video streaming
eCommerce
Browsing
Enterprise apps
Tracking
Telemetry
Push-to-Talk
Media/
Content
Service
Providers
News
CNN
News Corp
Images & Video
Time Warner
Sony
Disney
Music
EMI
Sony
iTunes
Networks/
Technologies
(suppliers)
Pure fixed
BT
Pure mobile.
Vodafone
MVNOs
Virgin
Tesco
Tele2
Fixed/Mobile
Verizon
Orange
Fixed voice PSTN
Cellular
GSM/GPRS/WCDMA/HSDPA
CDMA/1x/EVDO
Fixed Wireless
802.11
802.16
802.20
Smart antennas
Software defined radio
Soft switches
Bluetooth/UWB
DAB, DVB-H/T
Compression…
The
rd
3
Storey
Devices become more Intelligence,
Powerful, Convergence and Application Rich
Next Evolution will be towards
Application Delivery
App. Partnership
AtP
“Online
Market Place”
Nokia
Market
MSoft
SkyMarket
iPhone
AppStore
Android
Market
Symbian
Window
Mobile
iPhone
Android
Application
Stores
OtO, OtM
“Internet”
Access
Broadband
Communication
“Voice”
Different OS
Environment
Mobile
Fix Line
Bit&Pipe Telco
Mobile
Broadband
What is Convergence ?
Convergence in view of network operator
means to open your network to various new
business opportunities from various new
applications that serve lifestyles of the
Internet Communities (may not just your country)
( in a smart way that could keep your
business growing. )
What coming next ?
and
How do we Change ?
Darwin’s Theory
New IMS Model
VoIP Service Provider
IMS Service Provider
HSS
AG
SIP AS
SIP
VoIP
Server
AG
HSS
MG
AG
SIP
Digital
Contents
MG
SIP
S/W based
IP agent
Internet = Global Backbone
SIP
Fixline
Mobile
NGN
NGN
Country ‘A’
SIP-I
SIP
SIP
SIP
SIP
Fixline
Mobile
NGN
NGN
Country ‘B’
New Intelligent
User Devices
Net
PC
PPC
IMS
Ter.
SIP
Ter.
MC
IPTV
@home
Telco’s Core Competencies
which can be used across multiple Verticals
Industries
Service Capabilities
Financial
service
Government Distribution
(Wholesale
Education
& Retails)
Printing &
Publishing
Others
Identity, Authentication & Security
Marketing, Customer Service & Business Intelligence
Sales & Distributions
Order Fulfillment - Offline
Order Fulfillment – Online (electronic content)
Billing & Payments
Source :
www.stlpartners.com
Telco’s Core Competencies
Global
Partners
ASP
ASP
Service Exchange Framework
App. Server
Banking
Mobile Office
Interactive
media
Hosted
App.
Outsourced
IT Service
Web 2.0
RT-MM
Email
Broadband
Mobile
Fix Line
Billing, CM, D&S
Access
Leverage
Handset Intelligent
Leverage
# Mobile Sub.
Find where you’ll be fitted in the New Eco-System
Digital Delivery
Distribution Ch.
Telcos
“Skymarket”
500 millions !
milestone iPhone app.
is reached recently.
Mobile Payments
Mobile
Consumer
Market
PIPE
3
OHA “Open Handset Alliance”
Wireless Broadband
Each operator will need its own roadmap
Convergence
Provider
Application
Provider
Network
Operator
Infrastructure
Wholesaler
Alliance
Value Chain Partners
Key Questions to identify your roadmap
1. “How big is the overall market for specific
or combined service capabilities ?
2. “Which are the most attractive industries to
target first ?
SUMMARY
“Changes” We need to prepare.
Legacy
Voice +Data
VAS focus on the supplements
on voice call and data services.
Simple CPE, no intelligence.
Network and Operation focus
on capacity and reliability.
NGN
Voice service is provided by
leverage on data network layer.
VAS are in the form of multimedia
and new value chains.
Advanced and many varieties of
CPEs w/ intelligences.
Network and Operation has to focus
furthermore on response time and
security.