Transcript Opinion Polls

TOPIC: Political Beliefs and Behaviors: Measuring Public Opinion
AIM – How is Public
Opinion Measured?
Do Now: Complete Poll
on Texting and Driving
How can statistics be misleading?
I. Public Opinion Polls
A.
Polling
1. Use a sample small portion of the
population to represent the whole
2. Key to polls is their accuracy
3. Random sampling – everyone should
have an equal probability of being selected
as part of the sample
4. Sampling Error- level of confidence of
the sample which depends on its size
5. Most polls are done through
computerized random digit telephone
dialing
B. Role of Polls in American Democracy
1. We do not have to wait until elections to see if the
public approves or disapproves of government’s
course
2. Criticisms
a. Politicians may pander to the polls
b. Americans may take an opinion because they see
other people doing it
c. Exit Polls – Asking voters how they voted and
why at select locations and announcing it prior to the
end of election day
d. Easy to manipulate by question order or wording
C. What do Polls Reveal About
Americans’ Political Information?
Hamilton - “Your people, sir, are a great
beast”
 Jefferson – “People take the tasks of
citizenship seriously”
 Lincoln - “You may fool all of the people
some of the time: and you can even fool
some of the people all of the time; but
you can’t fool all of the people all of the
time.”

D. What do Polls Reveal About
Americans Political Information?
1. Americans are not well informed about
politics
a. They don’t know the platforms, issues, or
candidates
b. More people know their astrological sign
than their Representative
2. Americans do not know Geography
Should people who are politically ignorant be
trusted with the right to vote?
E. Reliability of Polls
1. Opinion is constantly changing making some polls worthless
2. Bias:
a. A leading question is one that leads the respondent to
choose one response over another by its wording.
– Leading questions are actually statements disguised as
questions, and make respondents feel that only one
response is legitimate.
– For example: "Don't you agree that the government isn’t
responsible to provide health care to all Americans?“
b. Prestige bias occurs when a statement, position, or response
is associated with a prestigious person or group.
Respondents may answer on the basis of their feelings
toward the person of group rather than addressing the
issue.
– For example, a survey might state, "According to recent
Gallup polls, 80 percent of the people support granting
china Most Favored Nation Status. What is your opinion on
this issue?"
– This way of stating the position of a professional
Questions:
1. What mistake did Literary Digest make
in its sample in 1936?
 2. Why should one be wary of the
statistics provided by magazine and
television news and entertainment shows?
 3. Why are older men more often quoted
in news and political programs?
 4. How can the wording of questions
affect the results of a poll?
