Transcript Higher Education Funding and State Government

Persistence to Graduation for
Transfer and "Native" Students:
A Case Study
John W. Miller, Ph.D.
President, Central Connecticut State University
Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D.
Director of Institutional Research & Assessment, CCSU
Association for Institutional Research Annual Forum
Seattle, WA
May 26, 2008
Overview
 Institutional Profile
 Overview of the problem → to what extent do
differences in earned credit hours contribute
to differences in graduation rates?
 Methodology and Results
 Conclusions and Implications
Institutional Profile: Central
Connecticut State University
 Public – part of Connecticut State Univ. System
 Carnegie 2005 Master’s-larger programs
 Fall 2007 Enrollment:




12,106 headcount (9,704 undergraduate, 23% residential);
9,288 full-time equivalent enrollment
52% female; 16% minority
Full-time, first-time students: 1,469 (56% residential)
Full-time, new transfer students: 678
 Six-year graduation rates:


44% full-time, first-time students
56% transfer students (full-time upon entry)
Methodology
 Divide subjects by origin


Full-time first-time student
Full-time transfer students
 Group subjects by credits earned rather than
by fall of entry
 Measure time to graduation (Fall-to-Fall),
regardless of time at institution

e.g. after earning 76-90 credits, how many
graduated in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 10 years?
 Produce descriptive statistics and run logistic
regressions
Study Population
Unduplicated, Full-Time Students in Study Population, Fall 1991-2006
Race/Ethnicity
Non-Resident Alien
African American/Black
American Indian
Asian
Hispanic
White
Unknown
Grand Total
Native Students
Transfer Students
Women Men
Total Women Men
Total
125
141
266
64
49
113
664
757 1,421
370
378
748
43
40
83
25
18
43
168
210
378
146
184
330
542
504 1,046
283
195
478
7,612 7,455 15,067 3,675 3,679
7,354
397
434
831
234
243
477
9,551 9,541 19,092 4,797 4,746
9,543
Total observations (duplicated individuals): 86,342 over 16 years
Grand
Total
379
2,169
126
708
1,524
22,421
1,308
28,635
Graduation Rates by Credits Earned
Credits Earned at Beginning of Fall Semester
16-30
Yr. Of
Entry*
In 1 Yr
31-45
45-60
61-75
76-90
91-105
106+
FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf FTFT Transf
Graduated (%)
91-'06 Basis Obs. (N)
In 2 Yrs Graduated (%)
91-'05 Basis Obs. (N)
In 3 Yrs Graduated (%)
91-'04 Basis Obs. (N)
In 4 Yrs Graduated (%)
91-'03 Basis Obs. (N)
In 5 Yrs Graduated (%)
91-'02 Basis Obs. (N)
In 6 Yrs Graduated (%)
91-'01 Basis Obs. (N)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0% 14%
9% 46% 32% 72% 56%
10,640 2,403 4,017 2,706 7,012 3,905 4,101 3,802 4,881 3,679 3,693 3,308 4,738 5,598
0%
1%
1%
3% 13% 11% 37% 27% 64% 46% 77% 64% 84% 75%
9,858 2,217 3,648 2,503 6,481 3,595 3,671 3,481 4,408 3,390 3,286 3,025 4,160 5,160
11% 10% 25% 26% 54% 41% 66% 53% 78% 64% 83% 76% 87% 81%
9,108 2,041 3,257 2,324 5,899 3,273 3,257 3,177 3,883 3,090 2,894 2,759 3,606 4,739
41% 31% 50% 44% 67% 54% 72% 61% 81% 70% 85% 79% 89% 83%
8,389 1,854 2,899 2,092 5,254 2,994 2,855 2,888 3,410 2,805 2,506 2,517 3,105 4,312
52% 41% 56% 49% 71% 59% 74% 64% 83% 73% 86% 80% 90% 84%
7,520 1,683 2,507 1,916 4,674 2,719 2,459 2,613 2,974 2,535 2,167 2,293 2,685 3,923
55% 44% 58% 53% 73% 62% 76% 66% 85% 75% 88% 82% 91% 85%
6,765 1,513 2,128 1,721 4,096 2,464 2,106 2,346 2,552 2,314 1,839 2,059 2,260 3,522
Differences in Graduation Rates
CCSU Native Students vs. All Transfer Students : Graduation within Six
Years from Time of Earning Designated Number of Credits
100%
90%
Percent graduated
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
16-30
31-45
45-60
61-75
76-90
91-105
Credits Completed as of the Beginning of the Fall Semester
First-Time Full-Time Students
Transfer Students
106+
Logistic Regression (1)
 Two variable model
(Forward conditional)
B
S.E.
Wald
Exp(B)
Total Credits Earned
0.021
0.000
5,921
1.022
Transfer
-0.437
0.024
343
0.646
Constant
-0.449
0.015
886
0.638
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Native
Transfer
15
22
29
36
43
50
57
64
71
78
85
92
99
106
113
120
Probability of graduating within 6
years
Probability of graduating from within 6 years of
completing specified credits
Credits completed at beginning of fall term
All variables significant at
p<0.001
Model accuracy:
68.9% correct
Cox & Snell R2: 0.138
Nagelkerke R2: 0.188
Logistic Regression (2)
 Multivariate model
(Forward conditional)
B
S.E.
Wald
Exp(B)
Total Credits Earned
0.020
0.000
3,518
1.020
Transfer
-0.413
0.026
248
0.661
GPA Earned 1st Fall
0.240
0.018
170
1.271
Hrs Attempted 1st Fall
0.075
0.005
224
1.078
GPA Earned in Fall of Analysis
0.893
0.016
3,299
2.443
Constant
-4.026
0.070
3,274
0.018
All variables sig. at p<0.001
Model accuracy:
75.1% correct
Cox & Snell R2: 0.273
Nagelkerke R2: 0.371
Additional Significant Variables:
Female
African American/Black
Hispanic
But model accuracy improved by only
0.1% or less with inclusion
Major Findings
 Total credits earned is most significant
predictor of graduation
 Native students graduated at higher rates
than transfer students after controlling for
credits earned
 Other significant predictors:



First semester GPA
Credits attempted first semester
GPA in term of analysis
Conclusions and Implications (1)
1. At CCSU, and I suspect at other institutions,
we need to recognize the lower success rate
of our transfer students by comparing their
progress to their equivalent credit
counterparts.
2. While recognizing and respecting the
experiences of transfer students, we must
appreciate that they still need similar support
to FT/FTs modified for them (e.g. FYTE
course).
Conclusions and Implications (2)
3. More careful exploration of our transfer
compacts to determine how to better pave
the way for transition is required.
4. We must more deeply study our “counting”
of credits as meeting requirements, used as
electives, or not counted at all to ensure
maximum appropriate progress toward
completion at time of transfer.
Persistence to Graduation for
Transfer and "Native" Students:
A Case Study
Contact Information:
John W. Miller, Ph.D.
President, Central Connecticut State University
[email protected]
Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D.
Director of Institutional Research & Assessment, CCSU
[email protected]