Transcript 2 years ago in Bali - World Resources Institute

Environmental Stories
to Watch: 2010
Jonathan Lash
World Resources Institute
January 7, 2010
Global Vision for a Sustainable Earth
Practical Solutions for People
Lacey Act Enforcement
Tracking the
Illegal Cut
Rep. John F. Lacey
Chesapeake legislation?
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
Matt Petros
Average Cost of Selected Nitrogen Reduction Measures
Dollars per pound of annual nitrogen reduction
Stormwater*
WWTP
Agriculture
New practices
Average dollars per pound of annual nitrogen load reduction
200 - 600
92.40
47.40
21.90
15.80
7.00
Stormwater Stormwater WWTP
retrofits mgmt for new upgrades
development -High-
Enhanced
NMP
6.60
Native
WWTP
Algal turf
oyster
upgrades
scrubbing
aquaculture
-Low-
4.70
3.30
3.20
3.20
3.10
1.50
1.20
Cover
crops
Land
retirement
Cons.
tillage
Grassed
buffers
Forest
buffers
Restored or
constructed
wetlands
Forest
harvest
BMPs
Sources: Agricultural BMPs: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Abt Associates Inc. Preliminary, 2009. Chesapeake Bay: Next Generation of Tools and Actions to Restore the Bay: Preliminary Economic Analysis of Options.
Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; WWTP upgrades: WRI analysis using plant upgrade costs; New practices: Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Fisheries Service, Oyster Advisory Commission. December
20, 2008 conference proceedings: Oyster restoration economic and ecologic cost offsets. Available online at: http://www.dnr.state.md.us/fisheries/oysters/mtgs/122007/meeting122007.html; New practices (cont’d): Suwanee River Algal Turf
Scrubbing System Concept Design Report; Additional agricultural BMPs from Wieland, Robert, et al. 2009. Costs and Cost Efficiencies for Some Nutrient Reduction Practices in Maryland. Maryland Department of Natural Resources Coastal
Program.
2 Copenhagen Meetings
by Kuznetsov_Sergey
2 years ago in Bali
“Developed countries want developing
countries to have a commitment. I
don’t think it’s possible”
-African Delegate
“Developing Countries so far have
successfully resisted …pressures…and
threats which we have faced to
undertake commitments.”
- G77 Chair
Unexpected Commitments:
• Brazil – 36-39% below BAU, 15-18%
•
•
•
•
•
below 2005 by 2020
Mexico – 50% reduction by 2050 using
cap and trade
Indonesia – 26% below BAU by 2020
South Africa – Emissions peak and start
down by 2020
China – reduce intensity of CO2 emissions
per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40 – 45%
below 2005 level
India – reduce carbon intensity 24% by
2020 and by 2030 reduce carbon
emissions by 37% from 2005 levels
Failed Negotiations
Mads Nissen/EPA
Copenhagen Outcome
TARGET:
<2°, NO-50%
COMMITMENTS:
All Major Economies
Not Enough for <2°
All Major Economies
Report & Respond
VERIFICATION:
REDD, ADAPTATION, Good Progress, But no
TECHNOLOGY:
Decision
FUNDING:
LEGAL ACCORD:
$10 Billion $100
Billion Commission
No Deadline
The Old G8
Telegraph.co.uk
The New C5
World Economic Forum
Center for American Progress
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn
Photo: Bloomberg
Photo: Rajeev Bhatt
China’s Carbon Intensity Commitment
• 12th 5 year plan
• Green power buy
• Clunker phase out
ABC: Karen Barlow
The World’s Forests
Remaining and Lost
Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009
Intact Forest Landscapes
Formerly forest, now croplands
Working
Forestcover
Landscapes
Original
Current forest
Formerly forest, now pasture
Tropical deforestation 2000-2005
Forest landscape restoration potential
(million hectares, excluding the boreal)
Higher probability
Lower probability
Broad-scale
Mosaic
Irrigated croplands
Rainfed croplands
Temperate
49
190
158
592
Humid Tropics
205
230
111
259
Dry Tropics
19
643
110
456
Total
272
1063
379
1306
The Trio
LCV Score:
90%
LCV Score:
87%
LCV Score:
10%
*Lifetime Score from League of Conservation Voters’ National
Environmental Scorecard 2008
“Gang of 16” Democrats
& states where coal is 60% or more of
electricity fuel mix
Kent Conrad & Byron Dorgan (ND)
Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow (MI)
Tim Johnson (SD)
Evan Bayh (IN)
Benjamin Nelson (NE) Sherrod Brown
Coal data from
Climate Analysis
Indicators Tool
(CAIT)
http://cait.wri.org/
(OH)
C C C
C
C
C
Jim Webb &
C
C
Warner
C C C C CCCC CC Mark
(VA)
C C
C
C Robert Byrd & John D.
Rockefeller IV (WV)
Jeff Bingaman (NM)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Blanche Lincoln & Mark Pryor (AR)
States with Unemployment levels
higher than the National mean (10.2%)
11.3%
15.1%
13%
12.5%
11%
12.9%
10.5%
11.2%
11%
10.5%
12.1%
10.9%
11.2%
Data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Regional and
State Employment and Unemployment—October 2009
EPA Actions Underway and Likely
Actions Done or
Underway
Mobile Sources
Planned or Likely in
2010
§ 202 Endangerment Finding
(Expected 3/2010)
Joint EPA-DOT Vehicle
Emissions & Efficiency
Standards (Expected 3/2010)
Stationary Sources
GHG Reporting Rule
(Completed)
New Source Performance
Standards for Cement Kilns
Prevention of Significant
Deterioration (PSD) preconstruction permitting
(BACT) (Expected 3/2010)
New Source Performance
Standards for Electric
Generating Units;
Possibly Other Categories
Title V operating permit
requirements for major
sources
NSPS at State Level for
Existing Sources—cap-andtrade or traditional
performance standards?
State Actions Underway and Likely
• Northeast States - Low Carbon Fuel Standard
• California - stricter vehicle emissions standards for model
year 2017 and beyond.
•
Three regional cap-and-trade programs collaborate.
•
States likely to assert authority under the Clean Air Act.
Bretton Woods Mount Washington Resort
Old Arrangements Are Changing