Transcript Clinton Foreign Policy

Presentation by Dr. Kevin Lasher
Election of 1992
Post-Cold War: Foreign Policy Not That
Important Any More
Election of 1992
It’s the Economy,
stupid
Election of 1992
• Governor with little foreign
policy experience
• Second-tier foreign policy
team
• Focus on US domestic
economy & foreign trade
policy
• Tie US domestic economy to
global free market system
Foreign Policy Issues
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Global trade
Post-communism world
Proliferation of WMD
Terrorism (pre-9/11)
Environmental problems
Civil war/failed states
Human rights
China’s emergence
Peace in Middle East and
elsewhere
Clinton Paradigm
• “The successor to a doctrine of containment must
be a strategy of enlargement -- enlargement of the
world's free community of market democracies.”
NSA Anthony Lake, 1993
• Enlargement and Engagement
Enlargement and Engagement
• Strengthen the community of major market
democracies
• Foster and consolidate new democracies and
market economies
• Counter aggression and support the liberalization
of states hostile to democracy and markets
• Help democracy and market economies take root
in regions of greatest humanitarian concern
Enlargement & Engagement
• A coherent paradigm or a set of broad
goals?
• How do the “pieces” fit together?
• Benevolent hegemonism + liberal
internationalism + economism
Enlargement and Engagement
Strengthen the community of major market
democracies
• Improve multinational organizations like UN,
NATO, G-7
• Maintain and expand bilateral ties with traditional
allies
• Work with traditional allies to expand democracy
where possible
Enlargement and Engagement
Foster and consolidate new democracies and market
economies
• Aid transition to democracy and capitalism in
former communist countries
• Support new democracies in Latin America and
elsewhere
• Encourage China in its next stage of economic
reforms
Enlargement and Engagement
Counter aggression and support the liberalization of
states hostile to democracy and markets
• Respond to rogue states like Iraq, Iran, North
Korea, Cuba
• Promote reform/revolution where possible
• Use military force where necessary
Enlargement and Engagement
Help democracy and markets take root in regions of
greatest humanitarian concern
• Humanitarian interventions in Haiti, Somalia,
Rwanda, former Yugoslavia, elsewhere
• Peace-keeping, stability, nation-building
• Long-term policy of helping to “remake” such
failing states
• Moral requirement
Enlargement and Engagement
Goal #1:
Link US domestic economic interests to the
expansion of the global free market system
Enlargement and Engagement
• International playground: Strengthen existing
friendships, make new friends, deal with bullies
(and turn them into friends?), and help those who
cannot help themselves
Too grandiose ?
Too idealistic ?
Clinton Successes
• Expansion of world trade
through NAFTA and WTO
• Mexican bailout 1994-95
• Further integration of US
with globalizing economy
• Strong US economy as model
to world (budget surpluses)
Clinton Successes
• Interventions in Haiti,
Bosnia, Kosovo
• Delayed and very messy but
“they worked”
• Congressional opposition,
Russian unhappiness, bomb
Chinese embassy by mistake
Clinton Successes
• Deproliferation of Ukraine,
Belorus, Kazakhstan
• START II Treaty with Russia,
aid to Russia for
de-nuclearization
• Freeze on North Korean
nuclear program ???
Clinton Successes
• Peace process in
Northern Ireland
Clinton Successes
• Upgrading and expansion of
NATO
• Expansion of EU and creation
of eurozone (minor US role)
• New defense treaty with Japan
• Typical complicated relations
with China
Clinton Failures
• No Western Hemisphere Free
Trade Agreement
• Little action on Asian
financial crisis of 1997-98
Clinton Failures
• Failed nation building
in Somalia
• Failure to prevent/stop
genocide in Rwanda
• Bosnia and Kosovo were
quite flawed; many lives
lost as US delayed action
Clinton Failures
• India and Pakistan
become nuclear powers
Clinton Failures
• Last-minute push for
Israel-Palestinian
agreement falls short
(receives some credit for
coming close)
Clinton Failures
• Clinton unable to
“unfreeze” relations
with Cuba
Clinton Unclear
• “Containment” of
Saddam’s Iraq through
a variety of means
Clinton Unclear
• Russia unhappy over
expansion of NATO and
intervention in former
Yugoslavia
• Russia moving away
from democracy as
Clinton leaves office
• Difficult to blame
Putinism on Clinton
Clinton Unclear
• Results of anti-terrorism
policies?
• How much to blame should
Clinton receive for events of
9/11?
Clinton Assessment
• Despite claim of E & E
paradigm, Clinton foreign policy
was ad-hoc, pragmatic and
hyper-cautious
• Results were a complex of
modest successes, modest
failures, and some policies
which were a little of both
Richard Haas
“Despite some noteworthy achievements in foreign as well
as domestic policy, the Clinton era was marked by a
preference for symbolism over substance and short-term
crisis management over long-term strategizing. Unlike
domestic policy, however, foreign policy suffered from a
lack of presidential interest, attention, and respect. It
suffered, in short, from malign neglect.”
Richard Haas
“The administration's early experiments -- "democratic
enlargement" for a goal and "assertive multilateralism" for a
strategy -- were quickly abandoned, with ad hoc decisionmaking becoming the norm. Administration supporters speak
of the complexity of post-Cold War international relations, the
need for flexibility, and so forth, but no such rationalizations
can hide the fact that ‘ad hoc-racy’ is no virtue.”
Richard Haas
“Giving foreign policy the attention it deserved over the last
several years would have required a president willing to invest
political capital in the absence of political pressure. … The
mass media, meanwhile, devoted less time and space to
international issues. Following such trends rather than
fighting them was the easiest course -- and the one Clinton
chose. He gave the American people the foreign policy that
polls suggested they wanted -- unlike a truly great president,
who would have tried to lead them toward the foreign policy
they needed.”
Mead and Skinner
“On Clinton’s watch, the United States avoided major
international conflict while retaining its position as the most
powerful nation on earth. The power and prestige which the
United States enjoyed at the time of his inauguration will be
passed, essentially intact, to his successor, and the chances of
major international conflict are, if anything, somewhat less in
2000 than they were in 1992. That may not be as dramatic a
legacy as some, including President Clinton, might wish, but
in the last analysis it is enough.”
Walter Mead and Benjamin Skinner, “The C+ President”
Mead and Skinner
“On balance then, the president gets a C+ or, perhaps in this
era of grade inflation, a B-. Clinton will not be remembered
as one of the most outstanding practitioners of U.S. foreign
policy. Though disappointing to the president’s friends, this
is not necessarily bad for the United States. Happy the nation
whose annals are blank, and, in general, the United States was
a happy country on President Clinton’s watch.”
Walter Mead and Benjamin Skinner, “The C+ President”
Grade?
C+